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Miami Herald
08-07-2025
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Trump's U-Turn on Weapons Leaves Ukrainians Hopeful but Cautious
EDITORS NOTE: EDS: SUBS starting 3rd graf to UPDATE and ADD reporting, PICKUP at "The increasing intensity ..."; UPDATES related stories list. NOTE language in graf starting "On Tuesday, during ...".); (ART ADV: With photo.); (With: U.S.-UKRAINE-WEAPONS, EUROPE-LAND-MINES, TRUMP-PUTIN KYIV, Ukraine -- Ukrainians on Tuesday welcomed President Donald Trump's announcement that he would send additional weapons to fend off Russian attacks, even if it was the latest in a series of flip-flops on his approach to the war. Lawmakers and analysts in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, said they were not expecting a full turnaround on military assistance, given Trump's skepticism of U.S. spending on Ukraine and his fickleness on continuing military aid already funded by Congress. When Trump's administration last week decided to pause some already approved arms transfers to Ukraine, officials said that the reason was to review weapons levels in American stockpiles. But Monday, Trump said that Moscow's recent attacks on Ukrainian cities had left him no choice but to send more weapons. "We have to," Trump said. "They have to be able to defend themselves." He added that he had become unhappy with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has been foot-dragging in ceasefire talks that began in February. On Tuesday, during a televised Cabinet meeting in Washington, Trump again suggested Putin was not bargaining in good faith. "We get a lot of (obscenity) thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth," Trump said. "He's very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless." Iryna Gerashchenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament for the opposition European Solidarity Party, wrote on social media Monday that the announcement was "a signal of political change." "The increasing intensity of Russian attacks and growing pressure from allies in Europe, particularly Germany and France, are forcing the White House to change," she added. A former Ukrainian prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, posted, "Thank you, Mr. President!" Others aired skepticism that arms supplies would continue, given Trump's earlier zigzags on weapons shipments and his wobbly backing for sanctions on Russia. Under the Trump administration, Ukraine can no longer count on U.S.-donated weapons as American policy focuses on the Middle East and Pacific region, said Maksym Skrypchenko, president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a research group in Kyiv. "It's not the ideal strategy we would like to see," Skrypchenko said. "But we need to adapt to it, and we should find a place for Ukraine in that strategy." Trump's about-face came after a grim week for Ukrainians that included Russia launching its largest aerial bombardment of the war as well as the pause in weapons shipments. The pause was the second this year by the Trump administration, after a brief suspension of military and intelligence cooperation in March. That came after Trump publicly upbraided Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in an Oval Office meeting. The Trump administration has given other conflicting signals about how fully it supports Ukraine. The administration has voted with Russia at the United Nations, imposed tariffs on Ukraine but not Russia, resisted enacting new sanctions on Russia and revived diplomatic relations with Moscow even as ceasefire talks stalled. At the same time, Trump has voiced disapproval of Putin and this year called him "crazy" for bombing Kyiv. The latest turnaround raises hopes that Ukrainian air defenses will obtain sufficient Patriot interceptors to counter ballistic missile attacks and that front-line soldiers will receive ammunition to hold the line. Longer term, Zelenskyy has not asked for a resumption of arms donations but for approval to purchase U.S. weapons directly from American companies with financing from Europe. In another positive signal for Ukraine, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said in a social media post Monday that he expected a sanctions bill to progress in the Senate. The bill could impose what Graham has called "bone-crushing" secondary sanctions on countries trading with Russia to use as leverage in ceasefire talks. "It's time to end this bloodbath," Graham wrote. After Zelenskyy met with U.S. businesses operating in Ukraine, including Boeing and Baker Hughes, to seek support in lobbying the Trump administration, the American Chamber of Commerce in Kyiv issued a statement Friday appealing for more U.S. military aid. The statement asked Trump to "protect American businesses in Ukraine by urgently providing the defense equipment needed to stop these attacks." More than half of the about 600 members of the chamber, the statement said, have suffered damage to offices, factories or other assets from the Russian invasion. Members of parliament in Kyiv have for weeks been saying that the Trump administration's ceasefire talks have failed and that more pressure must be brought to bear on Moscow. Halyna Yanchenko, an independent lawmaker who caucuses with Zelenskyy's political party, said in an interview that Ukraine had succeeded in demonstrating to the Trump administration that Moscow, not Kyiv, was to blame for stalled talks. Russia's strategy has been to deplete Ukraine's air defense ammunition while trying to win ground in the east, Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee in the Ukrainian parliament, said in an interview. Kyiv has so far maintained Trump's engagement despite his administration's focus on the Middle East and China, and even with little apparent hope of a swift solution in Ukraine. "He now realizes he cannot expect Putin to negotiate seriously," Merezhko said of Trump. "There will be no quick ceasefire." This article originally appeared in The New York Times. Copyright 2025
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Ukraine has no great options if Trump recognizes Crimea as Russian
Ukraine is facing a crossroads in its fight against Russia's full-scale invasion, with the possibility of being forced to reject an unfavorable peace deal being imposed under huge pressure from the U.S. The red line for Kyiv could be a reported proposal from the White House that would give Russia de jure recognition of Crimea as a Russian territory — a move that would end more than a decade of bipartisan consensus rejecting the annexation, based on a bedrock of long-held international norms. "Under Trump, the Crimean Declaration was signed during his first term in 2018, where the United States did not recognize Crimea as part of Russia," Volodymyr Ariev, a lawmaker with the European Solidarity Party, told the Kyiv Independent. "If the U.S. violates this declaration, which it itself made, it will present itself as an unreliable partner worldwide… and open Pandora's box globally." Ukraine finds itself in an immensely frustrating position, having done all that was asked of it by the U.S. since the peace process began in earnest, yet now facing demands that are likely impossible. On March 11, Kyiv signed off on a U.S.-proposed, full 30-day truce, and has taken steps towards signing a mineral deal with Washington after Trump cut off military and intelligence sharing following a now infamous rebuke of Zelensky in the Oval Office in February. Russia has refused to agree to a full ceasefire, and has continued devastating attacks against Ukrainian civilians, yet the White House has not applied any sanctions or pressure to get them to stop. Despite this, the U.S. is now pushing a peace deal that rewards Russia's war of aggression, and strips Ukraine of territory with no security guarantees that could prevent Moscow from launching another war in the future. This frustration was evident on April 23 when Zelensky said Ukraine insists on an "immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire." "That was the proposal put forward by the United States on March 11 of this year — and it was absolutely reasonable," Zelensky said. "This is absolutely possible – but only if Russia agrees and stops the killing." With no sign of Russia signing up for a full ceasefire, the U.S. proposal is the only game in town — but it's loaded against Kyiv right from the outset. One of the most immediate problems in the event of the U.S. recognizing Crimea as Russian is that Ukrainian law does not allow Kyiv to agree to, or condone the move. According to the Ukrainian Constitution, Crimea is a legally recognized and inseparable part of Ukraine. No acts can be passed by the Ukrainian government that contradict the country's constitution. The constitution can't be changed during martial law. The only way Ukraine could legally recognize Crimea as Russian would be to hold a referendum on the issue and put the vote to the people. While recent polling shows the number of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions to end the war has risen, a majority still oppose the idea. Further, polling has not specified between de facto and de jure control, with de jure likely to be more heavily opposed than de facto. "No Ukrainian government has a mandate to recognize Crimea as Russian," Halyna Yanchenko, a lawmaker from the Servant of the People party, told the Kyiv Independent. "Any peace agreement that includes such a provision would risk sparking unrest within the country. That's why no Ukrainian leadership would ever agree to it. "And there is simply no chance such a deal would pass a vote in Ukraine's Parliament." If the U.S. is proposing recognizing Crimea de jure as Russian, Ukraine's immediate priority should be to lobby against it, Ukrainian political analyst Yevhen Magda, told the Kyiv Independent. "Ukraine must privately persuade the U.S. of the inadvisability of such a move," he said. "Trump's team should understand that no serious Ukrainian politician would accept such a step, and any proposal aimed at satisfying Putin's ambitions would only consolidate Ukrainian society around Volodymyr Zelensky — not weaken it." Magda's sentiment is shared by Ian Garner, assistant professor in totalitarian studies at Poland's Pilecki Institute, who told the Kyiv Independent that if he were "in the room with Zelensky right now," he'd be telling him that Ukraine has to "make every effort to continue to get the Americans back on board." "But we have to plan assuming that America will not only cease to intervene in the conflict, but may actually, whether intentionally or not, advance Russia's aims and Russia's goals," he adds. The rhetoric coming from the White House suggests the Trump administration will have little patience for anything that diverges from the plan they have already set in motion, including whichever proposals are contained within it. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on April 23 that the U.S. presented a "very explicit proposal" to Russia and Ukraine on a peace deal, repeating warnings Washington might drop its peace effort if the belligerent sides refuse. Talking to journalists during a visit to India, Vance said Washington presented a "very explicit proposal" to Russia and Ukraine, adding it is time for Kyiv and Moscow "to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process." Trump put it even more bluntly last week. "If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we're just going to say: 'you're foolish, you're fools, you're horrible people,' and we're just going to take a pass," he said. All of this risks playing into the hands of the Kremlin, with both Moscow and Washington potentially being able to point to Ukraine's refusal to go along with the proposal as the main sticking point of negotiations. "It will be considered as a provocation with a view (for the U.S.) to exit negotiations and to put the blame on the victim of the aggression," Oleksandr Merezhko, lawmaker and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent. With Ukraine being blamed for the breakdown in peace talks, the U.S. could well follow through on its threat to withdraw, giving Russia what it wanted all along since negotiations began — a free hand to carry on the war. "Unfortunately, Trump's team not only lacks a clear and adequate plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian war — they also fail to understand Ukraine's needs and have, in fact, become a target of reflexive control by the Kremlin," Magda said. With its main supplier of military aid out of the picture, Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia's full-scale invasion would be largely reliant on Europe, a prospect that is far more realistic than it was just a few months ago, but still unlikely to fill the gap left by Washington in the near-term. Europe has only been discussing sending troops to Ukraine in the context of a peacekeeping force to back up a peace deal, and while it is making moves to ramp up defense spending and production, it will be months if not years until it can supply the weapons Ukraine needs in the quantities that will be effective to push Russia back. "Ukraine has to count on itself and its own resourcefulness," Garner said. Ukraine is producing 30% of the weapons it needs itself, Zelensky said earlier this year, and it has managed to stabilize the front line in the east against a Russian army that is facing its own supply and manpower issues. Garner believes that it is "quite possible and quite plausible" for Ukraine to "hold a defensive line, but added that "it's not going to be easy." "It's going to require continued large-scale sacrifices in terms of lives, in terms of money," he said. In the meantime, he said Ukraine should "continue to advocate for itself, continue to Europeanize, continue to fight corruption, continue to democratize, and to move itself ever further towards its allies in Europe." "Because that's the thing that's going to stop Vladimir Putin, right?' Garner said. 'If the people are Europeanized and liberalized, then they are never going to accept Russian invasion and Russian occupation, whether it's diplomatic, political, economic, cultural or indeed military." Read also: 'Dangerous and cruel' — Trump's reported Crimea proposal sparks horror among Ukraine's lawmakers We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
'Dangerous and cruel' — Trump's reported Crimea proposal sparks horror among Ukraine's lawmakers
Reports that the U.S. could formally give de jure recognition to Russia's control over Crimea have landed like a bombshell in Kyiv, with lawmakers unanimous in their opposition to such a move, as well as issuing grave warnings about its potential consequences. "(The potential recognition of Crimea's annexation) sets a very dangerous precedent that could plunge the world into numerous wars," Volodymyr Ariev, a lawmaker with the European Solidarity Party, told the Kyiv Independent. "Ukraine should not side with those intending to violate the fundamental principles established after World War II," he added. The Trump administration's final proposal for ending the Russia-Ukraine war included U.S. de jure recognition of Russia's control over Crimea, along with de facto recognition of its occupation of other Ukrainian territories, Axios reported on April 23, citing sources. The news supports earlier reporting that the recognition of Russia's occupation of Crimea and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO are being considered as part of a U.S.-backed proposal to end the war. Yelyzaveta Yasko, a lawmaker from the Servant of the People party, told the Kyiv Independent that she "really fears" the question of recognizing Crimea being raised during negotiations. "I don't like it. I cannot imagine us agreeing to this if it's real de jure recognition, if I'm honest. If it was de facto then we could, but de jure is too much" she said. De facto recognition would mean accepting that where Russian troops are in control of Ukrainian territory, at least for the foreseeable future, they remain so. But it would leave open the option of the land returning to Ukraine, potentially by diplomatic means, something President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously acknowledged could be the only way to regain control of Crimea. De jure recognition, however, would be final — an admission that the land in question is under Russian control and will remain so indefinitely. The only means of reversing it would be by force. Russia occupied Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in February 2014. In March 2014, the Russian-controlled Crimean parliament voted to hold a "referendum" to join Russia. The sham voting on annexation was conducted in the absence of any international observers and with armed Russian soldiers present at polling locations. Ukrainian lawmakers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent said recognizing Russia's de jure control of the peninsula is next to impossible. "The Ukrainian Constitution does not provide for the recognition of its territories as being seized by another (country)," Ariev said. According to the Ukrainian Constitution, Crimea is a legally recognized and inseparable part of Ukraine. No acts can be passed by the Ukrainian government that contradict the country's Constitution. The only way Ukraine could legally recognize Crimea as Russian would be to hold a referendum on the issue and put the vote to the people. While recent polling shows the number of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions to end the war has risen, a majority still oppose the idea. Further, polling has not specified between de facto and de jure control, with de jure likely to be more heavily opposed than de facto. "No Ukrainian government has a mandate to recognize Crimea as Russian," Halyna Yanchenko, a lawmaker from the Servant of the People party, told the Kyiv Independent. "Any peace agreement that includes such a provision would risk sparking unrest within the country. That's why no Ukrainian leadership would ever agree to it. "And there is simply no chance such a deal would pass a vote in Ukraine's Parliament." Ukraine finds itself in what Zelensky on April 22 described as "a very dangerous moment," with the U.S. threatening to back out of the peace effort if Kyiv doesn't agree to its proposal. Talking to journalists during a visit to India, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that it is time for Kyiv and Moscow "to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process." All of this risks playing into the hands of the Kremlin, with both Moscow and Washington potentially being able to point to Ukraine's refusal as the main sticking point of negotiations. "Ukraine will never agree," Oleksandr Merezhko, lawmaker and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent. "It will be considered as a provocation with a view (for the U.S.) to exit negotiations and to put the blame on the victim of the aggression." Ariev said that if the U.S. follows through with the move, it could "open Pandora's box globally." "Recognizing territory seized by military means — this would be the first such recognition since World War II — sets a dangerous precedent that could reignite wars in the future, which could potentially reach the scale of World War III," he said. "This is extremely dangerous and cruel." Read also: Ukraine insists on 'immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire,' Zelensky says We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Gulf Today
06-02-2025
- Politics
- Gulf Today
Ukraine won't hold elections until war is over
Tom Balmforth and Yuliia Dysa, Reuters After Russia's 2022 invasion, Ukraine's normally febrile political life was becalmed under martial law. But there have been growing signs of activity picking up, as the United States has set its sights on finishing the war with Russia quickly. In the past week, one Ukrainian political camp has accused President Volodymyr Zelensky's team of caring more about elections than the war, Kyiv's mayor has said a presidential appointee is sabotaging his work and opposition figures have been travelling overseas. 'It's to do with Trump, the expectation that there will be negotiations ... The activity has increased, there's clearly more domestic political nervousness,' said Volodymyr Fesenko, a Kyiv-based political analyst. In what could fuel a sense of a looming return to politics, Reuters reported on Saturday that US President Donald Trump's team wants Kyiv to hold a presidential election by the year-end, especially if it can agree on a ceasefire with Moscow. Petro Poroshenko, a former president and leading opposition figure, has been pictured shaking hands with numerous foreign officials in recent weeks. He denies it has anything to do with elections, which he says would work in Russian President Vladimir Putin's favour and destabilise Ukraine at a dangerous moment. 'Our task is to win the war,' Poroshenko told Reuters. Yet his European Solidarity Party has accused Zelensky of trying to bar him from parliament and of focusing on 'upcoming elections instead of handling the war.' A former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, has become more visible of late, meeting European Union officials abroad and protesting about Ukraine's detention of a general over a botched defensive operation last May. Last week, Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko, a potential presidential challenger, accused Zelensky's entourage of political intrigue, saying the city's military administrator, appointed by the president, had deliberately derailed the work of his civilian administration. Asked to comment, Zelensky's team referred the matter to the city administrator, who has dismissed Klitschko's allegations as unsubstantiated. Fesenko said some political groupings were assembling activists and working on election campaign teams. He said he had seen no such activity in Zelensky's camp and that politicians were probably jumping the gun if they saw an election looming. 'It's a false start in my opinion,' he said. US officials say no policy decisions have been made and their strategy on Ukraine is evolving. Ukrainian politicians, both from the ruling bloc and opposition, say elections before the war ends could undermine national unity. There are also logistical challenges. Serhiy Dubovik, deputy head of Ukraine's Central Election Commission, told Reuters it would take at least four to six months to prepare so that campaigning could start ahead of an election, given the displacement of voters and widespread destruction. Millions of Ukrainians still live abroad, millions more are internally displaced by the war, a fifth of Ukraine is occupied and frontline areas have been devastated. Zelensky has said elections will happen straight after the end of martial law, which was declared to provide the state with emergency powers to fight Russia. The legislation explicitly prohibits holding elections. Zelensky, whose five-year-mandate would have ended last May, has not said whether he will run again. This is not his focus, he says. Putin, who has been in power for 25 years, says Zelensky is not a legitimate leader in a position to negotiate because no election has been held. In Ukraine, even those who say they disapprove of Zelensky's record largely see him as the legitimate leader, said Anton Hrushetskyi, director of the Kyiv-based KIIS survey centre. A Ukrainian government official told Reuters that Putin was trying to create a false pretext to avoid talks. Ukraine wants to hold elections but it is impossible during a full-scale war, the official said. Zelensky's public trust rating is above 50%, according to opinion polls, although it has dropped since Russia's Feb. 24, 2022 invasion, when it rose to over 90% as Ukrainians rallied around the flag. The elephant in the room for some observers is Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, who led the armed forces for two years after that invasion before being replaced and named ambassador to London. Some lawmakers have asked whether Zaluzhnyi could be co-opted by an established political force and run for president. Ukraine's London embassy did not respond to a written request for comment. Zaluzhnyi has publicly voiced no political ambition but polls suggest he is popular. Zaluzhnyi's image is all over bookstores in Kyiv, where thousands of copies of his new book 'My War' have been sold. Hrushetskyi said gauging the public's political preferences during the war was difficult, especially when it was not known who would run in an election. Polls show the public broadly against holding elections until the war is over, Hrushetskyi added. 'For the majority, the priority is to achieve success in the war, and then hold elections,' he said.
