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Balkan Insight
18 hours ago
- Politics
- Balkan Insight
Poland and France, towards a promising reset?
June 27, 2025 - Cyrille Bret - Articles and Commentary Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a groundbreaking treaty in Nancy on May 9th 2025. Photo: Office of the Prime Minister of Poland / Over the last month, Poland has been very high on the French political agenda. Or perhaps we should say, once more. French leaders, diplomats and analysts have been scrutinizing both the diplomatic rapprochement between Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Emmanuel Macron on May 9th, as well as the presidential election leading to the victory of the PiS supported candidate, Karol Nawrocki, on June 1st. Closely followed by Paris, these two major political events can appear to be puzzling. On the one hand, the Polish leadership is taking important steps in reviving its relation with Paris, Brussels and the 'European liberal mainstream'. Yet, on the other hand, the Polish voters sent a conservative and Eurosceptic message to its own coalition government and to all the liberal European leaders. But let us focus on the bilateral relations between France and Poland and on the perception that the French have now acquired of Poland's fast-growing role in Europe. Back to square one? Since the appointment of Donald Tusk as prime minister on December 13th, after a tense general election, the French government had been experiencing a 'Polish relief'. The 'PiS decade' seemed to be over, the Weimar Triangle was back on track and political and economic ties could be revamped. Cooperation at the European level was to overcome the stumbling blocks of the constitutional and judicial system reforms implemented by the previous Morawiecki government and the Duda presidency. However, the victory of Nawrocki in the second highly disputed round of the presidential election has been seen in Paris as a setback to the potential reset in bilateral relations, as well as the 'Polish normalization' hoped for by Macron. Assessing Polish political life by their own standards, the French elites branded those electoral results as 'mixed messages' to Warsaw's partners in Europe. Indeed, the PiS candidate, now president elect, who will take office on August 6th, has often been labelled in France as the 'Polish Trump'. He is continuously criticized for his Eurosceptic stance by the ruling parties. What seems to be mixed messages from Paris are in fact domestically understandable. The Polish political stage is, has been, and probably will remain, divided, disputed and heated. Thus, Paris must live with a recurring question: can Poland be trusted as a reliable partner (to Macron) on the European stage? Or is the promising reset established in Nancy already ailing? Is there now any 'Polish relief' or is it 'back to square one'? A personal and electoral rapprochement To France, in the long, rich and sometimes tumultuous alliance between Warsaw and Paris, a significant milestone was reached on May 9th in Nancy. Back then, the two countries added a new comprehensive bilateral treaty to their multilateral agreements (EU, NATO, Weimar Triangle, etc.) that have bound them together since the end of the communist bloc and the 2004 EU enlargement. To Paris, Macron and the liberal Europhile elites of the business circles, this strategic agreement is of real substance. Many pro-government French media outlets have been highlighting the mutual assistance clause of the treaty, comparing it to the pre-war alliance against Nazi Germany and underlining its importance for the European Union's defence initiatives. Within NATO and Europe, such bilateral military agreements are rare: during the Macron presidency, the only precedent is the strategic agreement signed with Greece in 2021. And outside of Europe, France is striking such deals only with prominent military powers such as India, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. This has been done in support of the country's defence industry campaigns. To a lesser extent, some diplomats and observers have emphasized that the new course taken by the bilateral relationship has put an end to a decade-long period of partisan frictions between the PiS Polish governments and the diplomacy of Hollande and Macron. With the Morawiecki government and Macron's time in office, relations have been at their lowest for many years. The 'Nancy sequence' is nonetheless not deprived of ambiguity from the French perspective. First, with this treaty, Paris is a 'diplomatic follower' rather than a strategic pioneer. Indeed, it has been a while now since Poland has become an economic superpower in the EU. The more recent military build-up of Warsaw has also already taken place. Second, it can be contended that France's rapprochement with Poland is taking place quite late because it is prompted by partisan affinities between Macron and Tusk. The new treaty can even be seen as direct partisan support to the Civic Coalition campaign for the Polish presidential election. The strategic rapprochement is in the making but the electoral mutual support is even more obvious. Catching up with a lost decade This agreement is meant to trigger a 'reset' between Paris and Warsaw. It has been branded as a 'new chapter' by President Macron. The French authorities have given their best to make it symbolic and solemn, by choosing the right place and time. As for the place, all French kids learn at school that Nancy is the urban embodiment of Polish influence in France due to the role of the Duke of Lorraine, Stanislas Leszczynski. The city shows the traditional yet structural impact of Poland in France, along with the musical works of Chopin and the scientific achievement of Curie. Undisputedly, the new treaty has been signed in the most Polish town of France. As for the time, the French presidency has chosen to sign the treaty exactly when Warsaw and Paris have converged in supporting Ukraine, resisting the new US presidential administration and launching a new European defence initiative. Killing two birds with one stone, President Macron is catching up with the Polish economic miracle and supporting the Civic Coalition electoral campaign. Indeed, the treaty goes far beyond security and defence cooperation and cements various economic ties and endeavours. France and Poland have been partnering for a long time in order to bolster an ambitious EU Common Agriculture Policy. They even had a clear, objective alliance throughout the PiS versus Macron controversies to protect this almost federal policy against fiscal cuts. New fields of cooperation are now being opened up by the 'Nancy spirit', such as nuclear energy. This is likely to create business opportunities in Poland regarding the jewels of the (French) crown, such as the major state companies EDF, Orano and Framatome. Nuclear energy, defence, agriculture… All these topics are very dear to French (political) hearts and to Macron's policies. One can say that the Polish charm offensive in France has been impressive. And that France has ultimately been rewarded for initiatives it did not take over the last decade. Towards a common roadmap? Can this agreement lead to concrete outcomes for France, Poland and the European Union? Let us put aside the tactical rapprochement, the electoral fight and the PR operations. Instead, it is better to assess the real level of potential that exists after the PiS victory in the presidential election. At their heart, the structural needs of the two countries can be combined and realigned. But at this stage we only are witnessing a convergence in the making. Poland – even with a president supported by PiS – needs to diversify its alliance network and enlarge its risk mitigation tools. The second Trump administration could prove be attractive for many PiS politicians. But it cannot be seen as reliable regarding the security of the country in the long run: all Polish citizens have witnessed the way Ukraine is constantly bullied by the US, the pro-Russian stance taken by President Trump, and his negligence towards NATO commitments. In a way, Poland can use the French strategic stance on the US to rebalance its influence on the US and in NATO. Both countries need also to make the most of the ReARM initiative. After all, they have large needs, enjoy solid defence industrial companies, and fear the German market share in the domain. Moreover, on Ukraine, Poland has gradually set the tone in Paris. For example, both countries now converge in their 'unwavering support' to Kyiv; they share the proposition to put 'boots on the ground' to secure any potential peace agreement; and they want to shape the ceasefire talks on Ukraine. May aspects of the structural bonds remain to be strengthened and disagreements to be bridged. First, economic and trade links are weak: Poland is only the tenth trade partner of France, while France is the fifth trade partner of Poland. Second, the Weimar Triangle (often declining but regularly revived) needs to be stabilized to become a more efficient scheme. The window of opportunity is there: Macron, Merz and Tusk have common goals. But Germany is obviously tempted to sing its own song. The 'Nancy spirit' can only become a real common roadmap if concrete actions are taken together in the long run. Reality checks The real impact of the 2025 bilateral treaty and the materialization of the 'Nancy spirit' are to be assessed in the coming months and years. Reality checks are to be performed, especially at times when the Macron presidency is entering its last period. Stumbling blocks are to be overcome on migration policies, Ukraine's EU accession process (France is tempted to delay it), economic ties (Poland relies on Germany, not on France) and domestic political fights (PiS will remain the main target of Macron's European politics). Progress is also to be made in the economic field, and fast. Yet, Poland and France can make all the difference in making sure that Europeans have a seat at the negotiation table on Ukraine and that Germany will seriously rearm. As of today, relations between the two countries are proving to be promising. Let us closely follow whether the administrations will keep their promises. The reset is on its way. However, it is far from its destination. Cyrille Bret is an associate researcher at Notre Europe – Institut Jacques Delors. New Eastern Europe is a reader supported publication. Please support us and help us reach our goal of $10,000! We are nearly there. Donate by clicking on the button below. Donald Tusk, Eastern flank, Emmanuel Macron, EU, Europe, France, Poland, Polish foreign policy, Polish-French relations
The Guardian
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Daniel Hannan celebrates his chronicle of Brexit idiocy foretold
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be Dan was very heaven! O wondrous day. One of which dreams are made. Especially if you've been taking large quantities of hallucinogenics. The day forever named Daniel Hannan Day. We will never see his like again. With any luck. The Man with a brain the size of a Higgs Boson particle. You know it must be there somewhere but only the Large Hadron Collider can conjure it into existence for a nanosecond. Yet in that fleeting moment, Dan can achieve great things. Can share the marvels he has seen. For Dan's unique ability is to be wrong about almost everything, all the time. Failing is his niche talent and his fans applaud his every disaster. Triumph and recognition are his alone. For Dan has long since been rewarded for being the dimmest man alive with a peerage. Living proof that even halfwits and liabilities need not be excluded from the upper chamber. And where Dan leads, Toby Young and others follow. To recap. Back in 2016, Dan was a Tory MEP. A confirmed Eurosceptic and bewilderingly considered by many to be the intellectual backbone of the Vote Leave campaign. Gravitas borne out of unbearable levitas. And two days before the referendum, Dan decided to share his genius for prophesy in an article he wrote for the website. This was the chronicle of Dan's idiocy foretold. 'It's 24 June, 2025, and Britain is marking its annual Independence Day celebration,' wrote Dan. 'As the fireworks stream through the summer sky, still not quite dark, we wonder why it took us so long to leave. The years that followed the 2016 referendum didn't just reinvigorate our economy, our democracy and our liberty. They improved relations with our neighbours.' Today we have reached that day. It is indeed 24 June 2025. And weirdly, Dan does not seem at all keen to be reminded of his morphine dreams from nine years ago. Surely this should be a day of celebration for him? Where is the column in the Daily Telegraph in which he once more shares his genius? Where is the pullout guide in the Daily Mail to all the street and firework parties taking place around the country? All hail the majesty of Dan Hannan Day. But it's really not fair that Dan should be so cruelly overlooked by his erstwhile backers on today of all days. Why all the long faces? Why do heads turn away when Dan's name is mentioned? Are we no longer allowed to enjoy the triumph of Brexit and the people who delivered such treasures to Britain? Whatever happened to punching the air at a self-inflicted 4% hit to GDP? It's almost as if the leavers are ashamed of what they have done. Back to the gospel according to St Dan. How else did he imagine the Britain of today? Agriculture and fishing booming. Cows with smiling faces, safe in the knowledge they would never hear moos with a French accent. Millions of cod swimming back into British coastal waters, desperate to be turned into fish fingers by Captain Birds Eye. It got better. Not only was the UK the foremost knowledge-based economy in the world, but Hoxton had superseded Silicon Valley as the global centre for tech. Not forgetting more traditional industries. Steel and ceramics would rise from their sick beds and become competitive again. Meanwhile the EU was withering and dying, choking on its own bureaucracy as Jean-Claude Juncker was voted back in for his second term as president of the European Federation. Imagine writing such trash. It's bad enough having to go back and read it again. The delusions became ever more tragic and grandiose. Hard not to worry about Dan's sanity. The trading arrangements with the EU were easily agreed, Dan fantasised. Not least because the EU was so intimidated by our show of strength. Tariff-free borders remained and EU nationals were given leave to remain. On and on it went. Birmingham and Leeds would become financial capitals of the world as Frankfurt, Milan and Paris stagnated. The UK would become the centre of world shipping. Shale oil and gas would come on tap and energy prices would hit record lows. Universities would flourish as the UK headed a new 22-state bloc to rival the EU. Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands would have already followed our example and left the EU. You can only wonder what Dan's predictions for 24 June 2034 might look like. Dear Diary, for nine years the Middle East has been at peace with Israel and Iran now inseparable allies. Crimea has become Europe's most fashionable summer resort after President Putin voluntarily handed it back to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the UK has become the largest economy in the world and has threatened to pull out of Nato unless the US increases its defence spending to 8%. Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion If only all worlds were like Dan's. The reality is that, having just been blindsided by Donald Trump's decision to bomb Iran and the fragile ceasefire already broken, Keir Starmer found himself off to deal with yet another war at the Nato conference. This involved further Donald wrangling. Trying to persuade the US not to give away large chunks of Ukraine to Russia. Good luck with that. All of which left the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Pat McFadden, to give a statement on the government's national security strategy to the Commons. And who better than Pat. The cadaver in human form. The man with the slightly sinister air of someone happy to sign death warrants over breakfast. The world was a very dangerous place, he began. All the more dangerous for having him in it. It was the government's policy to reach defence spending of 5% by 2035, with 1.5% coming from already existing internet and energy projects that had originally been assigned to other departments and would now be commandeered by defence. Not that he put it in those terms. But that appeared to be the gist of it. Everything else was on a need-to-know basis. All Pat could supply were some broad ideas. He would make us safe at home. And abroad. That was it. If he said anymore then our enemies would know what we were doing and the whole purpose of the strategy would be compromised. Thank you and good night. Sweet dreams are made of this on Daniel Hannan Day.
France 24
20-06-2025
- Business
- France 24
Romania names pro-EU PM after months of instability
Bolojan, 56, leader of the liberal party (PNL), will be tasked with tackling Romania's dire finances and reconciling the divided EU member. Romania was plunged into political chaos when presidential elections were annulled in December over allegations of Russian interference, with a far-right candidate mounting a massive social media campaign. In an official address Friday, centrist Dan, who won a rerun of the presidential vote in May, said Bolojan was the person "best suited to make the necessary adjustments in the Romanian state apparatus". Bolojan said he was "aware of the great responsibility" he was assuming in the face of Romania's prolonged budget crisis -- its deficit stood at 9.3 percent at the end of last year, the highest in the European Union. Bolojan's appointment will need to be confirmed by parliament, where he hopes to secure the support of four pro-European parties and form a government next week. He will face a daunting task to unify a nation deeply polarised after recent elections, with far-right parties winning a third of parliamentary seats in December. The talks to form a new government excluded the far-right parties, a decision defeated presidential candidate George Simion labelled as "a disgrace and an insult" last week. The European Union has voiced concerns over the rise of Eurosceptic parties in NATO member Romania that are opposed to sending military aid to Ukraine. - 'Drain' of public money - Bolojan came through the ranks of the liberal party he joined in 1993, serving as mayor of the city of Oradea in the north-west before eventually rising to the national level last year and taking over as party leader. He took over as senate president late last year and fired 150 people in a bid to "stop" the drain of public money, a move critics branded as "abusive". "Such cuts can be made in many institutions," he said. In a press conference last week, Bolojan said Romania was "in a complicated situation", adding that the incoming government would have to resort to "unpopular measures" that could include cutting public spending and imposing tax rises. Political scientist Sergiu Miscoiu told AFP that Bolojan was "the person best placed to take unpopular measures to tackle the serious budget crisis".
Int'l Business Times
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Int'l Business Times
Romania Names Pro-EU PM After Months Of Instability
Romanian President Nicusor Dan named pro-European Ilie Bolojan as prime minister on Friday, following weeks of talks aimed at appointing a new government to end months of political turmoil. Bolojan, 56, leader of the liberal party (PNL), will be tasked with tackling Romania's dire finances and reconciling the divided EU member. Romania was plunged into political chaos when presidential elections were annulled in December over allegations of Russian interference, with a far-right candidate mounting a massive social media campaign. In an official address Friday, centrist Dan, who won a rerun of the presidential vote in May, said Bolojan was the person "best suited to make the necessary adjustments in the Romanian state apparatus". Bolojan said he was "aware of the great responsibility" he was assuming in the face of Romania's prolonged budget crisis -- its deficit stood at 9.3 percent at the end of last year, the highest in the European Union. Bolojan's appointment will need to be confirmed by parliament, where he hopes to secure the support of four pro-European parties and form a government next week. He will face a daunting task to unify a nation deeply polarised after recent elections, with far-right parties winning a third of parliamentary seats in December. The talks to form a new government excluded the far-right parties, a decision defeated presidential candidate George Simion labelled as "a disgrace and an insult" last week. The European Union has voiced concerns over the rise of Eurosceptic parties in NATO member Romania that are opposed to sending military aid to Ukraine. Bolojan came through the ranks of the liberal party he joined in 1993, serving as mayor of the city of Oradea in the north-west before eventually rising to the national level last year and taking over as party leader. He took over as senate president late last year and fired 150 people in a bid to "stop" the drain of public money, a move critics branded as "abusive". "Such cuts can be made in many institutions," he said. In a press conference last week, Bolojan said Romania was "in a complicated situation", adding that the incoming government would have to resort to "unpopular measures" that could include cutting public spending and imposing tax rises. Political scientist Sergiu Miscoiu told AFP that Bolojan was "the person best placed to take unpopular measures to tackle the serious budget crisis". However, the analyst pointed out that apart from a brief time as interim president he had "no experience in national politics".
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
‘Sir!' Frederick Forsyth wrote sizzling letters to the Telegraph for 30 years. Here are the best
It has been a long time since the Letters desk's fax machine saw daily action. For years, though, it continued to stand guard, awaiting the salvos of one correspondent in particular: Frederick (sometimes Freddie) Forsyth of Hertfordshire (later Buckinghamshire). In a busy life – working as a journalist, helping MI6, even penning the odd novel – Forsyth also found time to be a voluminous letter-writer to The Telegraph. A trawl through our archive indicates that, over 30 years, he made about 150 appearances. A pretty respectable hit rate. He was not, by and large, a writer who got stuck into debates on the correct way to boil an egg, say, or the waning strength of English mustard. (He did once enter a discussion about cars, in 2015: 'When I spent the year 1963-64 as Reuters' – and the West's – sole correspondent in East Berlin, I had a Wartburg. It was a disgusting pink colour but it was compulsory.') No, he was a thunderer, and he was very good at it: robust and mordant, with wafer-thin patience for (to use a favoured phrase) 'blithering incompetents'. Here, then, are a few of his greatest hits – beginning with his first letter to the paper, on the theme to which he returned most frequently over the following decades. Forsyth was an unyielding Eurosceptic. But after the referendum – which he had long demanded – he became an equally trenchant critic of our leaders' efforts to extricate Britain from the EU. It came from a place of care, but Forsyth found himself routinely exasperated by the Conservative Party – and two of its members in particular. In truth, for Forsyth, no Tory leader could measure up to the Iron Lady. (And, as far as she was concerned, no thriller-writer could hold a candle to him.) When she died, he was dismayed by the reaction. While it's possible to detect a begrudging admiration for Tony Blair's election-winning powers, Forsyth was deeply sceptical of the New Labour project, its high priests and its footsoldiers. (Siôn Simon – regularly arraigned – was MP for Edgbaston from 2001 to 2010.) During those bizarre days in 2020, Forsyth was unpersuaded by the government's injunction to 'stay at home'. Forsyth's final contribution tackled the biggest subject of all. And on the question of assisted dying, he was as forthright as ever. He was a true giant of the Letters page. We won't be able to replace him. The fax machine has been stood down. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
