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Fibre2Fashion
a day ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US Consumer Confidence Index drops sharply in June 2025: TCB
US consumer confidence declined significantly in June 2025. The Conference Board (TCB) Consumer Confidence Index fell by 5.4 points to 93, reversing nearly half of May's strong gains. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index showed broad-based deterioration, reflecting growing pessimism about current conditions and the near-term outlook. The Present Situation Index, which gauges consumers' assessment of current business and labour market conditions, dropped 6.4 points to 129.1. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which captures short-term outlooks for income, business, and employment, declined by 4.6 points to 69—well below the 80-point threshold that typically signals a recession ahead, as per data by The Conference Board. US consumer confidence fell in June 2025, with The Conference Board Index dropping 5.4 points to 93. Both present and future outlooks weakened, with the Expectations Index plunging to 69, signalling recession risks. Pessimism grew about job prospects, business conditions, and income expectations. Inflation and tariffs remained top concerns, though inflation fears slightly eased. 'Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May's sharp gains,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labour market. The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.' Consumer sentiment towards current business conditions worsened, with 19 per cent describing them as good, down from 21.4 per cent in May, while those saying conditions were bad rose to 15.3 per cent. Views on the labour market also cooled, with the share of respondents stating jobs were 'plentiful' dropping to 29.2 per cent. Future expectations further darkened in June. Only 16.7 per cent of consumers anticipated business conditions would improve, while 24 per cent expected them to worsen. Expectations for job availability also dipped, with 15.4 per cent expecting more jobs—down from 18.6 per cent. Income expectations followed a similar trend, with just 16.3 per cent expecting higher incomes in the months ahead. Despite the gloomier outlook, consumers' assessments of their current and expected family financial situations remained resilient. However, the perceived likelihood of a US recession over the next year stayed elevated. 'Consumers' write-in responses revealed little change since May in the top issues impacting their views of the economy. Tariffs remained on top of consumers' minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices,' added Guichard. 'Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month. This is in line with a cooling in consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations to 6 per cent (down from 6.4 per cent in May and 7 per cent in April). References to geopolitics and social unrest increased slightly from previous months but remained much lower on the list of topics affecting consumers' views.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Veteran analyst updates S&P 500 prediction after record rally
How high could stocks go? That's the question most investors are asking after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have delivered mouth-watering gains since President Donald Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on April 9. The S&P 500 has marched 24% higher, without much of a pause, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which is weighted heavily toward the Magnificent 7, has climbed over 33%. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Those returns are impressive, especially considering that the S&P 500's average annual return since 1957 is about 10%, and the market was flirting with bear market territory only a little over two months ago. Stocks' rapid recovery isn't uncharted territory, though. The market has experienced sharp drops in the past, and how the S&P 500 performed after those declines may offer insight into how much gas for stocks may be left in the proverbial tank. Longtime veteran Wall Street analyst Sam Stovall, who has been navigating stocks for decades, recently offered thoughts on how the rest of the year may play out. There have been plenty of reasons to worry that stocks could tumble in 2025 amid a weakening economy, including: Sticky inflationDeclining GDP growthGrowing unemploymentLackluster confidence Inflation is down substantially from its 8% plus peak in 2022, but progress lately has been limited. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, rose 2.7% in May. That was up from 2.6% in April and matched the rate from last September. Related: Morgan Stanley reboots stock market forecast after rally Many think the inflation picture will worsen in the coming months. Since February, President Trump has implemented 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and autos, plus a 30% tariff on China and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports. Given that so much of what we buy, from clothing to electronics, is made overseas, many think businesses will pass along at least some of these higher costs to consumers this year. The prospect of higher prices isn't welcome news for already cash-strapped consumers and businesses, who may retrench spending, slowing our economy. There's already some evidence that economic activity is in trouble. First-quarter GDP declined 0.5%, and the World Bank estimates that full-year GDP in the U.S. will be just 1.4%, down from about 2.8% last year. The situation has led to an uptick in layoffs, which has increased the unemployment rate. Over 696,000 workers have been laid off through May, up 80% year over year, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas. The unemployment rate is 4.2%, up from its low of 3.4% in 2023. Risks that inflation reasserts itself and unemployment increases have taken a toll on consumer confidence. While confidence is better than in April, the Conference Board's Expectations Index is 69, handily lower than the 80 that often indicates a looming recession. Nevertheless, the stock market is forward looking, and since April, investors believe the worst of the risks are behind us and arguably got priced into stocks when they nose-dived this spring. Sam Stovall is a been-there-done-that Wall Street veteran analyst. He's built a long career analyzing the markets, including serving as managing director and chief investment strategist at S&P Global for over 27 years, before becoming chief investment strategist for CFRA, a major research firm. Related: Rare event could derail S&P 500 record-setting rally Stovall has a reputation for connecting the dots between the past and the present. He considered past sharp sell-offs and what happened after them and came away bullish. "The recent correction recovered all that was lost in only 80 calendar days, versus the traditional 236 days for all 25 corrections (declines of 10.5% to 19.9%) since WWII," said Stovall in a note to clients. "Investors shouldn't be too surprised by this speedy recovery, due to the swiftness of the initial selloff." The V-shaped recovery after the dramatic drop reflects a market that had become very oversold, very quickly. The baskets that have performed best since April's low have perhaps, unsurprisingly, been the groups that got hit the hardest. For example, the information technology sector, which comprises high flyers like Nvidia, is up 41% from the lows. The average return for the three worst-performing sectors - information technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services - is up 32%. More Wall Street Analysts: Analysts reboot Olive Garden parent's stock price targets as earnings loomAnalysts revamp forecast for Nvidia-backed AI stockIntuitive Surgical analyst raises eyebrows with new stock price target Those gains could continue, says Stovall, but he did offer a relatively tempered outlook for the third quarter. "The S&P 500 posted the weakest quarterly return, eking out only a 0.1% advance in Q3," said Stovall. "Five of its 11 sectors posted declines, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, energy, and materials." The third quarter's lackluster historical returns could mean it's a bit tougher sledding for stocks short term, but Stovall still thinks that stocks overall can deliver bigger returns through year's end. "Encouragingly, history indicates that quick drops to the -10% threshold typically result in a shorter and shallower total decline, followed by a more rapid recovery," said Stovall. "As a result, investors look forward to continued gains of between 6% and 10%, as was typically the case following declines of up to 20% since WWII, before slipping into a new decline of 5% or more; they just have to survive the traditionally challenging third quarter." Related: Analyst sends alarming message after S&P 500 hits all-time high The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
SFM & 3 Retail Stocks Holding Strong as Consumer Confidence Slips
U.S. consumer sentiment declined in June, reflecting rising concerns over job concerns and broader economic challenges. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dipped by 5.4 points to 93.0, down from 98.4 in May, signaling growing unease among Present Situation Index, which assesses current views on business and labor market conditions, fell 6.4 points to 129.1. At the same time, the Expectations Index, which tracks short-term outlooks for income, business conditions and employment, slipped 4.6 points to 69.0.A primary driver behind this drop is the ongoing concern over trade policies. Although the Trump administration has taken steps to ease tensions, many consumers still view tariffs as a threat to economic stability. Their connection to rising prices and market disruptions has left a lasting mark on household confidence. Escalating geopolitical tensions have also weighed on the consumer even in this environment of pessimism, some players are better equipped to weather the storm. Their solid business models, loyal customer bases, and focus on value and essentials provide them with a distinct advantage. Companies such as Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. SFM, Urban Outfitters, Inc. URBN, Costco Wholesale Corporation COST and BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. BJ are better positioned to navigate shifts in consumer behavior. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Sprouts Farmers, operating in a highly fragmented grocery industry, is a compelling option. The company has adopted a multifaceted approach to expand its customer base and cater to evolving consumer preferences. Through product innovation, targeted marketing and competitive pricing, Sprouts Farmers ensures that its offerings resonate with its diverse customer base. The company's commitment to offering fresh, natural and organic products aligns with the growing consumer demand for healthier food options. Its store expansion and growing private label mix reflect solid momentum ahead. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sprouts Farmers' current financial-year sales and earnings per share (EPS) implies growth of 13.7% and 35.5%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. SFM, which sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.5%, on average. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. URBN's major brands — Anthropologie, Free People and Urban Outfitters — are showing momentum across both digital and physical channels, driven by curated assortments, brand-right pricing and improved marketing execution. Growth in newer concepts like FP Movement and Nuuly adds to URBN's multi-brand leverage, expanding its reach and deepening customer engagement. Across the board, a focus on customer acquisition, full-price selling and creative content is enhancing profitability. Strategic initiatives such as store optimization, supply-chain agility and international synergies reinforce Urban Outfitters' long-term growth Zacks Consensus Estimate for Urban Outfitters' current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 8.5% and 22.2%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. URBN, which sports a Zacks Rank #1, has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 29%, on average. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.) Costco has navigated market ups and downs effectively, driven by strategic investments, a customer-centric approach, merchandise initiatives and a strong emphasis on memberships. By identifying untapped markets and tailoring offerings to customer preferences, Costco has deepened its market presence. The company's high membership renewal rates, efficient supply chain management and bulk purchasing power ensure competitive pricing and foster strong customer Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco's current financial-year sales and EPS calls for growth of 8.1% and 12%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. COST, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.4%, on average. BJ's Wholesale continues to demonstrate strong performance, fueled by its strategic focus on membership growth and digital innovations. The company remains committed to enhancing omnichannel capabilities and providing value to customers. These endeavors have contributed to growth in membership signups and renewals, resulting in higher membership fee income. Offering members convenient options such as same-day delivery, curbside pick-up, and buy online and pick up in-club, the company ensures an engaging and seamless digital shopping experience. BJ's Wholesale has been steadily increasing its footprint, targeting high-growth regions and underserved markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJ's Wholesale's current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 5.5% and 6.2%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. BJ, which carries a Zacks Rank #3, has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.7%, on average. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) : Free Stock Analysis Report Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) : Free Stock Analysis Report Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) : Free Stock Analysis Report Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
The Star
5 days ago
- Business
- The Star
UM consumer sentiment index rises for first time in 6 months
CHICAGO, June 27 (Xinhua) -- The Consumer Sentiment Index released Friday by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers rose to 60.7 in the June 2025 survey, up from 52.2 in May and below last June's 68.2. The UM consumer sentiment has improved for the first time in six months. The Current Index rose to 64.8 in June, up from 58.9 in May and below last June's 65.9; the Expectations Index rose to 58.1, up from 47.9 in May and below last June's 69.6. Labor market expectations improved in June but remain considerably worse than at the beginning of the year. About 57 percent of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down from 66 percent in March but still much higher than the 40 percent seen in December 2024. Expectations for consumers' own income growth improved modestly in June, but June readings were worse than six months ago. Expectations for personal finances soared 17 percent from near historic lows in May but were 17 percent below December 2024. Beliefs about the anticipated effects of tariffs have shaped consumers' views of the economy this year. In June, about 59 percent of consumers provided unsolicited comments about tariffs, down from 66 percent in May but marking three consecutive months a majority of consumers did so. The share of consumers expecting business conditions to worsen in the year ahead fell from 64 percent in May but stood high at 55 percent, compared with just 29 percent in November 2024. "Consumers feel they have some breathing room given that the historically high tariffs announced earlier this year have not been sustained, and the worst-case scenarios for the economy have not come to fruition," said economist Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers. "However, consumers still worry that higher inflation and an economic slowdown are on the horizon, and they remain very cautious." The Surveys of Consumers is a rotating panel survey based on a nationally representative sample that gives each household in the coterminous United States an equal probability of being selected. Interviews are conducted throughout the month by telephone.
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
With Consumer Confidence Sliding, Could Shoe Sales Slow Sooner Than Later?
Consumers are concerned about tariffs and they are less confident than they were last month — that does not bode well for footwear sales. 'Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May's sharp gains,' Stephanie Guichard, the Conference Board's senior economist, global Indicators, said. 'The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration.' More from WWD Footwear Firms Rejiggering Supply Chains Will See Long-Term Benefits May Swiss Watch Exports Slump After U.S. Tariff-led Surge All Eyes Are on Nike Ahead of Q4 Earnings The Conference Board said on Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation component fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The Expectations Index fell 4.6 points to 69.0, representing a level that was substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals that a recession is ahead. 'Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market,' Guichard said. She noted that the three components of the Expectations Index — business conditions, employment prospects, and future income — all weakened. And consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, with optimism about future income prospects eroding slightly. The data points also reflected that the retreat in confidence was shared by all age groups, and almost all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, withe the largest decline among Republicans, the Conference Board said. As for write-in responses in June's survey, Guichard said that tariffs 'remained on top of consumers' minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices.' Consumers also cite inflation and high prices as concerns. While dining out was one of the few categories to see spending intentions rise in June, most other categories saw declines. While shoe prices at retail slid 1.6 percent in June from a year ago in May, that's already changing. Gary Raines, chief economist at the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), told Footwear News that there was mounting evidence of surging average duties per pair on footwear imports. 'These higher duties soon may push the average landed cost of footwear imports sharply higher, which in turn may pressure retail footwear prices to climb later this year,' FDRA's Raines said. Nike last month said it was raising some retail prices at its U.S. stores starting June 1, but not for any goods priced at $100 or less. The sports apparel and footwear brand also won't be raising prices for any kids's footwear or apparel items. In addition, there are no scheduled increases for any Jordan product. The average price uptick for apparel and equipment is between $2 and $10, while footwear currently between $100 and $150 will see increases up to $5 and those starting at $150 and higher will see increases up to $10, a source told FN. Other footwear firms have also tinkered with price increases. Steve Madden Ltd. has also increased prices for select shoe styles, and the firm is also working to factories and suppliers on price concessions so it can keep increases to the consumer within a certain range. And over at Crocs Inc., CEO Andrew Rees said the company is being 'super strategic' on pricing, with some targeted increases. He also expects the industry 'to go up in terms of price' due to tariffs. The next big shopping event for footwear will be back-to-school, which starts as early as July. Hibbett is ready with a new website and app dedicated to seeking kids products, and its set up for shoppers to find the lastest fashion and footwear styles in an easy-to-navigate format. Best of WWD All the Retailers That Nike Left and Then Went Back Mikey Madison's Elegant Red Carpet Shoe Style [PHOTOS] Julia Fox's Sleekest and Boldest Shoe Looks Over the Years [Photos] Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
