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Time of India
16-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
New plants, US trade worries to drive China's 2025 naphtha imports to record
China's naphtha imports will hit record levels this year as new plants and caution over US propane and ethane purchases will drive demand and support refiners' margins for the petrochemical feedstock , analysts and traders said. Cracker operators in the world's largest petrochemical producer, which pivoted in recent years to cheaper US propane and ethane feedstock, are switching some demand back to naphtha after being ensnared in the US-China trade war that disrupted their US supplies, the sources said. The need to diversify supplies and to meet demand from new plants will drive naphtha imports to an all-time high of 16 million to 17 million metric tons (144 million to 153 million barrels) this year, consultancies Rystad Energy and FGE said. JLC pegs 2025 imports at about 15 million tons. China imported about 12 million tons in 2024, official data showed. "With issues in imports of ethane and propane , there is a trust factor that has come into play when it comes to US cargoes," said Pankaj Srivastava, senior vice president, commodity markets at Rystad Energy. "Naphtha, on the other hand, is independent of these concerns because suppliers are varied." A total of 4 million tons per year (tpy) of ethylene capacity is slated to come online in China by end-2025, aiding import demand, and this will increase to about 6 million tpy by first half of 2026, he added. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its July report that China's naphtha demand is expected to rise by about 6 per cent in 2025 and by 8.6 per cent in 2026, significantly outpacing the combined growth of propane and ethane, which is projected at just 2.3 per cent in 2025 and 1.3 per cent in 2026. Following the disruption in U.S. supply, China issued a second batch of 2025 naphtha import quotas in June totalling nearly 24 million tons, nearly doubling last year's allocations. China imported nearly 6 million tons of naphtha between January and May, up 22.81 per cent on-year and the highest level since 2015, government data showed, with Russia, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea the biggest suppliers. This compares with a 6 per cent on-year rise in propane imports to 12.3 million tons in the first five months, while ethane imports were flat at 2.3 million tons in the same period, government data showed. China's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports, which include propane, are likely to stay lower in the third quarter amid cautious buying of US cargoes, Energy Aspects said in a July 4 note. The robust naphtha demand is expected to underpin Asian refiners' margins, analysts said. Naphtha margins have risen about 4 per cent this month to $73.30 over Brent crude on hopes of healthy feedstock demand from China. "Increased pull from China will provide support to (naphtha) cracks towards the middle of third quarter to fourth quarter," Rystad's Srivastava said.
Reuters
16-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
New plants, US trade worries to drive China's 2025 naphtha imports to record
NEW DELHI/BEIJING, July 16 (Reuters) - China's naphtha imports will hit record levels this year as new plants and caution over U.S. propane and ethane purchases will drive demand and support refiners' margins for the petrochemical feedstock, analysts and traders said. Cracker operators in the world's largest petrochemical producer, which pivoted in recent years to cheaper U.S. propane and ethane feedstock, are switching some demand back to naphtha after being ensnared in the U.S.-China trade war that disrupted their U.S. supplies, the sources said. The need to diversify supplies and to meet demand from new plants will drive naphtha imports to an all-time high of 16 million to 17 million metric tons (144 million to 153 million barrels) this year, consultancies Rystad Energy and FGE said. JLC pegs 2025 imports at about 15 million tons. China imported about 12 million tons in 2024, official data showed. "With issues in imports of ethane and propane, there is a trust factor that has come into play when it comes to U.S. cargoes," said Pankaj Srivastava, senior vice president, commodity markets at Rystad Energy. "Naphtha, on the other hand, is independent of these concerns because suppliers are varied." A total of 4 million tons per year (tpy) of ethylene capacity is slated to come online in China by end-2025, aiding import demand, and this will increase to about 6 million tpy by first half of 2026, he added. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its July report that China's naphtha demand is expected to rise by about 6% in 2025 and by 8.6% in 2026, significantly outpacing the combined growth of propane and ethane, which is projected at just 2.3% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. Following the disruption in U.S. supply, China issued a second batch of 2025 naphtha import quotas in June totalling nearly 24 million tons, nearly doubling last year's allocations. China imported nearly 6 million tons of naphtha between January and May, up 22.81% on-year and the highest level since 2015, government data showed, with Russia, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea the biggest suppliers. This compares with a 6% on-year rise in propane imports to 12.3 million tons in the first five months, while ethane imports were flat at 2.3 million tons in the same period, government data showed. China's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports, which include propane, are likely to stay lower in the third quarter amid cautious buying of U.S. cargoes, Energy Aspects said in a July 4 note. The robust naphtha demand is expected to underpin Asian refiners' margins, analysts said. Naphtha margins have risen about 4% this month to $73.30 over Brent crude on hopes of healthy feedstock demand from China. "Increased pull from China will provide support to (naphtha) cracks towards the middle of third quarter to fourth quarter," Rystad's Srivastava said.
Time of India
15-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
China state refiners ramp up output on rising demand, stock rebuild
Chinese state-owned refiners are ramping up output after completing maintenance to meet higher third-quarter fuel demand and to rebuild diesel and gasoline stocks which are at multi-year lows, traders and analysts said. The increase in crude processing rates , expected to last through the third quarter, will drive up imports by the world's largest oil importer, although slowing gasoline and diesel consumption is expected to keep a lid on overall demand. Operating rates at state refineries surpassed 80 per cent in the last week of June, up from about 73 per cent a month earlier, the highest for the period in five years, data from consultancy Oilchem showed, as several Sinopec refineries returned to operation from maintenance in the second quarter. China's overall refining throughput was 15.15 million barrels per day in June, the highest since September 2023, according to Reuters calculations based on official data released on Tuesday. The sharp ramp-up in state refinery operations was driven by low product stocks after two months of heavy maintenance in April and May that supported product profit margins, said Ye Lin, a vice president at Rystad Energy. "Demand for jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks is growing healthily in China, driving more supply from the state-owned refineries ," she added. Refined products output from state refiners Sinopec, PetroChina , CNOOC and Sinochem will exceed 10 million bpd in July, 100,000-110,000 bpd higher than June, according to consultancies FGE and JLC. FGE expects their output to hit 10.4 million bpd in July and August. JPMorgan analysts forecast China's refinery runs to increase year-on-year for the third and fourth quarters, following consecutive annual declines in the previous five quarters. Rising state refinery output pushed up diesel and gasoline stocks in the first two weeks of July, but at 14 million and 11 million metric tons, respectively, inventories are at six-year lows, Oilchem data showed. Official data showed China's January-May diesel and gasoline production fell 7 per cent annually. That is partly because independent refineries, known as teapots, have been operating at just 40 per cent to 50 per cent of their capacity this year due to poor margins, and as U.S. sanctions made it harder for some to buy cheap Iranian oil, industry sources said. Demand China's oil demand will rise seasonally into September but will be restrained by the country's prolonged property sector downturn, trade tariffs and rising sales of electric cars and trucks, the sources and analysts said. Barclays estimates that China's oil demand grew about 330,000 bpd year-on-year in the first half this year, while full-year growth will ease to 150,000 bpd. For July, China's gasoline consumption has firmed due to the summer travel season, but diesel demand remains weak as extreme weather, such as heatwaves and floods, has delayed construction projects in some regions, sources and analysts said. Rystad's Ye expects teapots to increase runs in August to meet higher fuel demand in September. Diesel and gasoline make up more than 40 per cent of China's oil demand.
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fesharaki Says Adnoc's $19B Santos Bid Is A Good Deal
FGE's Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki says Adnoc's $19 billion bid for Australia's Santos is a very good deal, but doubtful whether the Australian government will clear it.
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fesharaki On Takeover Bid for Australia's Santos
Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman Emeritus of FGE, speaks on Bloomberg TV about the potential regulatory challenges as Adnoc makes a $19 billion takeover bid for Australia's Santos. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
