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NDTV
24-06-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
US, Iran And A Night Of Missiles And Fragile Messages
In the Middle East's topsy-turvy night of June 23, missiles streaked toward American bases after dusk, and a sweeping ceasefire was proclaimed online before dawn. Just before 17:00 UTC, Iranian Fateh-110 rockets targeted Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and Al-Asad in western Iraq, both critical nodes in the US regional military network. Ninety minutes later, President Donald Trump announced on social media that Israel and Iran had agreed to a "complete and total ceasefire", to be phased in over twenty-four hours. It seemed like escalation and de-escalation had collapsed into a single real-time event. The juxtaposition was more than just disorienting - it was emblematic of a strategic landscape spinning faster than the frameworks meant to govern it. In under two weeks, five inflection points reshaped the regional equation: Israel's cross-border airstrikes inside Iran, Iran's retaliatory barrage against Israeli cities, America's dramatic bunker-buster strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, Iran's retaliatory targeting of U.S. forces, and finally, a ceasefire announcement that arrived amid trailing missile contrails. For all its vagueness, President Trump's "pause" has positives worth seizing: By framing the stand-down as an American initiative rather than an Iranian concession, the proposal provides political cover for Tehran and permits the Iranian leadership to accept it as a confidence-building measure without appearing to capitulate under pressure. The time-bound window with the 24-hour phase-in, if honoured, forces both Israel and Iran to stabilise positions quickly and provides back-channel opportunities to keep reinforcing messages of de-escalation. It has allowed Russia and China to agree to a US proposal to postpone a Security-Council resolution that they intended to put to a vote so as to "allow the cease-fire to take hold". The pause could be used to fold a formal cease-fire into the resolution or work on a new resolution that will include the new ground realities and provide a multilateral imprimatur to the arrangement. On the other hand, the ceasefire script is fragile. A sequenced silence may provide opportunities for spoilers to disrupt the pause. Six hours of unilateral Iranian restraint before Israel stands down and twenty-four hours before the ceasefire comes into play is long enough for rogue elements and false flag temptations to come into play. US Forces Are Now Direct Targets De-escalation with unprecedented swiftness means all actors are required to recalibrate their positions. The United States finds itself in a complex position. It demonstrated overwhelming force through its strike on Fordow, ostensibly asserting deterrence after years of indirect confrontation. Yet, the attack has made the US a major party to a conflict it had tried to avoid escalating. The missile attacks on Al-Udeid and Al-Asad, even if bloodless, underline that US forces in the region are now direct targets. Trump's ceasefire declaration signals that the US does not seek further entanglement. Whether that message holds beyond a social media post remains to be seen. Iran is walking a delicate line. Its retaliation was significant in symbolism, but limited in scope. It avoided targeting Israeli civilians, instead choosing US military infrastructure. The strikes showed capability and intent while calibrating the threshold of escalation. Iran's leadership now faces a choice: shift focus to rebuilding its capacities, or double down and risk drawing the entire region into an extended confrontation. Israel seems to have achieved its major objective - Fordow and other facilities have been set back. Whether Israel chooses to bank that gain or press further will depend on how it reads the credibility of the ceasefire and Iran's next moves. The Gulf monarchies are watching the turbulence with renewed anxiety. Their economic and security priorities depend on stability, not symbolism. With the US recalibrating and oil markets fluctuating wildly, Gulf capitals will push hard for calm, through direct diplomacy and back channels. The View From Outside Russia and China have condemned the US strikes but are unlikely to risk serious fallout over them. Russia gains from distraction; China gains from volatility that softens Western strategic focus. Both will support a pause, but neither has interest in the US or Israel walking away with an uncontested strategic win. Their next moves at the UN will likely aim to nudge events toward equilibrium without losing leverage. The European Union (EU) has been a bystander militarily. However, Brussels controls sanctions levers and will play a larger role through relief linked to compliance once the pause is translated into a ground reality. India, while not a central actor, buys nearly half its crude that is routed through Hormuz and has more than eight million citizens working in the Gulf. Delhi's stake is economic and human rather than ideological. Escalation had come with potential costs measured not only in headlines, but in budgets, energy security, and remittances. Hence India maintained quiet channels with all sides - Tehran, Tel Aviv and Washington - stressing on de-escalation. It must now remain alert to the impact of any reconfiguration. Delhi could explore an expanded coordination mechanism with Gulf states to pre-empt disruption scenarios. An End Or A Window? In such an evolving situation, with key actors still uncertain about the way forward, the word "ceasefire" should be read as a "window". Whether this breathing space leads to a durable plateau or another round of escalation is uncertain. It depends on choices made not just in Tehran, Tel Aviv and Washington but also by proxies such as the Hezbollah, Houthis in Yemen and Iraqi militias. The Middle East's topsy-turvy night may have ended with a social media post, but it had begun with fire. Whether this is a lull or the calm before another storm, only the next few days will show. Until then, we will need to wait to see if this balance holds or tips again. (The writer is a former Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations, and dean, Kautilya School Of Public Policy, Hyderabad) Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
India.com
16-06-2025
- Politics
- India.com
Iran opens 'door to hell' for Israel with 30 years of preparation; it's like Gaza..., America will...
New Delhi: When Israel attacked Iran's capital Tehran, Fordo Nuclear Facility and military bases in Isfahan, the world's eyes were fixed on Iran's counter attack. Iran had been saying for years that if Israel attacks, it will be given a befitting reply. This time, after the Israeli attack began, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said that 'Israel will be rendered helpless.' And Iran has done what it had been warning the world about for years. It has launched a flurry of ballistic missiles against Israel. Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps i.e. IRGC has fired more than 200 missiles and drones simultaneously. Many of these missiles were medium range, whose range is between 1000 to 2000 kilometers. Iran is firing at least 150 missiles at Israel at a time. Although experts say that Israel has largely destroyed Iran's ability to fire ballistic missiles, it is still able to fire at least more than 150 advanced ballistic missiles at a time, which shows how strong Iran's ballistic missile programme is. It has even been revealed that Iran was preparing to fire 1000 ballistic missiles at a time and if it was able to do so, no one would have been able to stop Israel from becoming like Gaza, because no air defense system in the world can intercept 1000 ballistic missiles at once. Iran has rapidly expanded its ballistic missile power The strongest pillar of Iran's military strategy is its ballistic missile capability. In the last 25 to 30 years, Iran has advanced its ballistic missile capability significantly. It now has advanced ballistic missiles which Israel is failing to intercept. After years of hard work, Iran has accumulated a stockpile of hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles, including short range, medium range and intermediate range missiles. Missiles like Fateh-110, Zulfiqar, Shahab-3 and Khorramshahr are no longer just names, but strategic messages. In retaliatory attacks against Israel, Iran has shown by using these missiles in an exceptionally coordinated manner that it has not just rockets but also high-precision strike capability. The USA and Israel believe that Iran may have around 3000 ballistic missiles. Apart from this, the Israeli defense system has also destroyed missiles outside the earth's atmosphere, which means that Iran has also used intercontinental ballistic (ICBM) missiles. The use of ICBM missiles means that Iran has already built missiles that can drop nuclear bombs and it is just waiting to make nuclear bombs. The US National Intelligence Director's Office said that the ballistic missile stockpile that Iran has is the largest in the Middle East. Kenneth McKenzie, the head of the US Central Command, warned in March about the 'increasing size and sophistication of Iran's missile force'. He said that 'Tehran's missiles, combined with its nuclear capability, pose a complex deterrent challenge.' What kind of ballistic missiles does Iran have? To attack Israel, Iran needs ballistic missiles with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers. Iran's state-run news outlet ISNA published a graphic last year showing nine types of Iranian missiles that it said could reach Israel. However, it is not clear at the moment what type of missiles Iran has used in its recent attacks. But previous attacks have reportedly included medium-range ballistic missiles such as Imad and Ghadr-1 and Iran's first hypersonic Fatah-1. So far, the attacks show that Iran has used three types of medium-range ballistic missiles, with a range of between 1,400-1,700 kilometers. Apart from this, the most important thing seen in Iran's attacks so far is that a lot of payload i.e. gunpowder has been used in the missiles so that maximum level of destruction is spread. Israeli military officials said that Iran has so far attacked Israel with about 400 ballistic missiles and it has 3000 ballistic missiles in its stock. Speaking to the New York Times, two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that Iran had originally planned to launch 1,000 ballistic missiles on Israel in response to Israeli attacks on Iran. But this could not happen due to Israeli attacks. Israel's strong air defense systems include Iron Dome, which is for short-range threats. Iron Dome is one of the most effective air defense systems in the world. David's Sling, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 are providing defense against medium and long-range Iranian missiles. Israel also has the American Patriot system, which has a range of about 160 km, which is also protecting Israel. Still, some missiles are falling.
