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Gizmodo
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Gizmodo
Targeting Nuclear Scientists Used to Be Covert Ops. Israel Just Blew It Open
At least 14 nuclear scientists are believed to be among those killed in Israel's Operation Rising Lion, launched on June 13, 2025, ostensibly to destroy or degrade Iran's nuclear program and military capabilities. Deliberately targeting scientists in this way aims to disrupt Iran's knowledge base and continuity in nuclear expertise. Among those assassinated were Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a theoretical physicist and head of Iran's Islamic Azad University, and Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, a nuclear engineer who led Iran's Atomic Energy Organization. Collectively, these experts in physics and engineering were potential successors to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, widely regarded as the architect of the Iranian nuclear program, who was assassinated in a November 2020 attack many blame on Israel. As two political scientists writing a book about state targeting of scientists as a counterproliferation tool, we understand well that nuclear scientists have been targeted since the nuclear age began. We have gathered data on nearly 100 instances of what we call 'scientist targeting' from 1944 through 2025. The most recent assassination campaign against Iranian scientists is different from many of the earlier episodes in a few key ways. Israel's recent attack targeted multiple nuclear experts and took place simultaneously with military force to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, air defenses and energy infrastructure. Also, unlike previous covert operations, Israel immediately claimed responsibility for the assassinations. But our research indicates that targeting scientists may not be effective for counterproliferation. While removing individual expertise may delay nuclear acquisition, targeting alone is unlikely to destroy a program outright and could even increase a country's desire for nuclear weapons. Further, targeting scientists may trigger blowback given concerns regarding legality and morality. Targeting nuclear scientists began during World War II when Allied and Soviet forces raced to capture Nazi scientists, degrade Adolf Hitler's ability to build a nuclear bomb and use their expertise to advance the U.S. and Soviet nuclear programs. In our data set, we classified 'targeting' as cases in which scientists were captured, threatened, injured or killed as nations tried to prevent adversaries from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Over time, at least four countries have targeted scientists working on nine national nuclear programs. The United States and Israel have allegedly carried out the most attacks on nuclear scientists. But the United Kingdom and Soviet Union have also been behind such attacks. Meanwhile, scientists working for the Egyptian, Iranian and Iraqi nuclear programs have been the most frequent targets since 1950. Since 2007 and prior to the current Israeli operation, 10 scientists involved in the Iranian nuclear program were killed in attacks. Other countries' nationals have also been targeted: In 1980, Mossad, Israel's intelligence service, allegedly bombed Italian engineer Mario Fiorelli's home and his firm, SNIA Techint, as a warning to Europeans involved in the Iraqi nuclear project. Given this history, the fact that Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program is not itself surprising. Indeed, it has been a strategic goal of successive Israeli prime ministers to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and experts had been warning of the increased likelihood of an Israeli military operation since mid-2024, due to regional dynamics and Iranian nuclear development. By then, the balance of power in the Middle East had changed dramatically. Israel systematically degraded the leadership and infrastructure of Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. It later destroyed Iranian air defenses around Tehran and near key nuclear installations. The subsequent fall of Syria's Assad regime cost Tehran another long-standing ally. Together, these developments have significantly weakened Iran, leaving it vulnerable to external attack and stripped of its once-feared proxy network, which had been expected to retaliate on its behalf in the event of hostilities. With its proxy 'axis of resistance' defanged and conventional military capacity degraded, Iranian leadership may have thought that expanding its enrichment capability was its best bet going forward. And in the months leading up to Israel's recent attack, Iran expanded its nuclear production capacity, moving beyond 60% uranium enrichment, a technical step just short of weapons-grade material. During Donald Trump's first term, the president withdrew the U.S. from a multilateral nonproliferation agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program. After being reelected, Trump appeared to change tack by pursuing new diplomacy with Iran, but those talks have so far failed to deliver an agreement – and may be put on hold for the foreseeable future amid the war. Most recently, the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors declared Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear-nonproliferation obligations. In response, Iran announced it was further expanding its enrichment capacity by adding advanced centrifuge technology and a third enrichment site. Even if the international community anticipated the broader attack on Iran, characteristics of the targeting itself are surprising. Historically, states have covertly targeted individual scientists. But the recent multiple-scientist attack occurred openly, with Israel taking responsibility, publicly indicating the attacks' purpose. Further, while it is not new for a country to use multiple counter-proliferation tools against an adversary over time, that Israel is using both preventive military force against infrastructure and targeting scientists at once is atypical. Additionally, such attacks against scientists are historically lower tech and low cost, with death or injury stemming from gunmen, car bombs or accidents. In fact, Abbasi – who was killed in the most recent attacks – survived a 2010 car bombing in Tehran. There are outliers, however, including the Fakhrizadeh assassination, which featured a remotely operated machine gun smuggled into Iranian territory. Why target nuclear scientists? In foreign policy, there are numerous tools available if one state aims to prevent another state from acquiring nuclear weapons. Alongside targeting scientists, there are sanctions, diplomacy, cyberattacks and military force. Targeting scientists may remove critical scientific expertise and impose costs that increase the difficulty of building nuclear weapons. Proponents argue that targeting these experts may undermine a state's efforts, deter it from continuing nuclear developments and signal to others the perils of supporting nuclear proliferation. Countries that target scientists therefore believe that doing so is an effective way to degrade an adversary's nuclear program. Indeed, the Israel Defense Forces described the most recent attacks as 'a significant blow to the regime's ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction.' Despite Israel's focus on scientists as sources of critical knowledge, there may be thousands more working inside Iran, calling into question the efficacy of targeting them. Further, there are legal, ethical and moral concerns over targeting scientists. Moreover, it is a risky option that may fail to disrupt an enemy nuclear program while sparking public outrage and calls for retaliation. This is especially the case if scientists, often regarded as civilians, are elevated as martyrs. Targeting campaigns may, as a result, reinforce domestic support for a government, which could then redouble efforts toward nuclear development. Regardless of whether targeting scientists is an effective counter-proliferation tool, it has been around since the start of the nuclear age – and will likely persist as part of the foreign policy toolkit for states aiming to prevent proliferation. In the case of the current Israeli conflict with Iran and its targeting of nuclear scientists, we expect the tactic to continue for the duration of the war and beyond. Jenna Jordan, Associate Professor of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology and Rachel Whitlark, Associate Professor of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Sky News
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Sky News
Who has been targeted in Israeli strikes on Iran - and what key infrastructure has been hit?
Israel has been targeting specific infrastructure and personnel in Iran since the start of its attacks on 13 June. Israel's president told Sky News that the country's unprecedented attacks, which have killed more than 240 people according to Iranian officials, are necessary because Tehran has been proceeding "dramatically" towards a nuclear bomb. But who and what has been targeted, and what is Israel's strategy? Here is what you need to know. Who has been targeted? High-ranking military leaders Israel hit many of its targets on the first night of the attacks, the most high-profile of them being Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, the chief of staff of the armed forces of the Iranian regime. His involvement in the military dated back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Israel has also killed Hossein Salami, who was the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran's primary military force, and Mohammed Kazemi, the intelligence chief of the IRGC. The latter was killed in the Israeli strikes along with his deputy, Hassan Mohaqiq. The strikes also killed Gholam-Ali Rashid, who was head of the IRGC's emergency command headquarters. He was replaced by Ali Shadmani, who was killed days later, with Israel's military claiming a "sudden opportunity" arose to attack him. Nuclear scientists Israel says six top nuclear scientists were among those killed in the initial strikes last week. One of the most high-profile of them was Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, who was head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation from 2011 to 2013 and a member of parliament from 2020 to 2024. Another was Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, who was also a theoretical physicist and president of the Islamic Azad University in Tehran. Four other scientists killed in the strikes were Abdolhamid Manouchehr, Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari, Amirhossein Feghi and Motalibizadeh. What infrastructure has been targeted? Israel has hit military, nuclear, government, oil and gas infrastructure and civilian areas across Iran, including in Tehran, Iran's capital, and other major cities. The nuclear sites targeted so far are Natanz, the country's main uranium enrichment facility located 135 miles southeast of Tehran, the nearby Isfahan nuclear facility and the Fordow uranium enrichment plant near the city of Qom. It has been speculated that Fordow will require a 'bunker busting' bomb to cause significant damage. A missile airbase in the western province of Kermanshah operated by the IRGC has also been hit. The attacks also targeted the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran. Many of the high-profile targets were killed in their homes or in meetings. What is Israel's strategy? According to Sky's experts, Israel's intentions appear to be to thwart Iran's nuclear efforts, but also to significantly weaken the regime, in the hope of triggering a regime change in the country. International affairs editor Dominic Waghorn says Israel's destruction of Iran's air defences has left the country's skies vulnerable, and that it has allowed Israeli jets to "destroy target after target with pinpoint accuracy". 3:12 He suggests that in order for the attack to be successful long-term, Israel "must destroy both Iran's ability to develop the bomb, but more importantly, its will to do so" - hence its targeting of both nuclear sites and key personnel. He explains that the Iranian nuclear programme is too far developed to be completely destroyed, and that experts and students there have too much knowledge to rule out the country's ability to build a bomb in the future. "Toppling the regime will be the surest way of achieving Israel's aims if it ushers in a replacement not determined to go nuclear," he says. Israel has also been attacking energy infrastructure, which Waghorn says will be aimed at raising energy prices to spark social unrest and dissent. Defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says Israel's strategy appears to be similar to the one it used against the Shia political and military faction Hezbollah in Lebanon last year. The Israeli military carried out several cross-border attacks, killing top senior leaders including the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah. 3:47 Comparing that scenario to Israel's attacks on Iran, Prof Clarke said: "In terms of the Israeli attacks, they very much follow what we might call the Hezbollah playbook. "They've attacked fairly specific targets, coupled with a series of assassinations against senior leaders. "They're trying to decapitate the command structure while they attack air defence to open up Iranian air defence and then attack Iran." Trump calls supreme leader 'easy target' as he considers US strike Israeli intelligence correspondent Ronen Bergman has reported that Israel has developed the ability to monitor Iran's top officials "in real time", allowing them to eliminate many of Iran's military and intelligence commanders quickly. But Iran's long-time supreme leader Khamenei is not among the officials killed. In a Truth Social post on 17 June, US president Donald Trump called the 86-year-old an "easy target" but said the US would not kill him - "at least not for now". "But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers," he added. "Our patience is wearing thin." 2:56 The comments came days after reports that Mr Trump rejected a plan proposed by Israel to kill Khamenei, who has led the regime since 1989. Mr Trump has called for Iran's 'unconditional surrender' but it is thought that his administration is keen to keep Israel's operation aimed at targeting the nuclear programme rather than at the regime, with fears over further escalation in the conflict. Before Israel's attack began, the US had been negotiating with Iran over a nuclear deal. Mr Trump is now considering a US strike on Iran, according to multiple current and former administration officials. The president is considering a range of options, including a possible strike, following a meeting with his national security team inside the Situation Room, the officials told Sky's US partner network NBC News. How has Tehran responded? Iran, which has always denied it is planning to make a nuclear bomb, has launched sustained retaliatory strikes against Israel since 13 June. In recent days Iran has shot some 370 missiles and hundreds of drones, with the majority being intercepted by the country's defence systems. The attacks have mainly focused on areas around the major cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa, which are densely populated by civilians. At least 24 people are reported to have been killed in Israel and some 500 people injured.
