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First Post
5 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Iran must tread carefully in framing post-ceasefire strategy
As a Persian proverb warns, 'Bravado without power is like a lion's roar from a sheep's throat,' Iran's defiance may echo loudly, but it risks being drowned out by the consequences of its own overreach read more The ceasefire notwithstanding, Iran has a brand new strategic mix for the near future. The first part of Iran's war strategy includes threatening traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil flows. This is a high-stakes gamble rooted in the sea denial principles of the British naval theorist Julian Corbett. Yet, despite its calculated bravado, Iran's approach is likely to lead to a protracted conflict it cannot win, exposing its strategic vulnerabilities and risking regional escalation. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Corbett's sea denial theory, which emphasises disrupting an adversary's control of maritime routes without seeking outright naval dominance, is evident in three facets of Iran's strategy. First, Iran deploys fast-attack boats armed with anti-ship missiles, designed to harass and deter larger naval forces through asymmetric hit-and-run tactics. Second, its naval assets, including submarines and mine-laying vessels, aim to create uncertainty and raise the costs of operating in the Strait. Third, Iran leverages its coastal geography, studded with missile batteries and radar stations, to project power over the narrow waterway, threatening commercial and military shipping alike. These tactics align with Corbett's vision of a weaker navy frustrating a stronger opponent's freedom of movement. Yet Iran's strategy extends beyond the Strait. It is likely to be flanked by the continued threat of missile strikes on American air bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq, targeting the US military presence that underpins regional security. These attacks, however, are unlikely to yield decisive results. US bases are fortified, with advanced missile defence systems like Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) capable of intercepting most threats. Moreover, such strikes risk galvanising American resolve and international condemnation without significantly degrading US operational capacity. A critical flaw in Iran's plan lies in the geography of the strait itself. Iran controls only the northern half; the southern half is Oman's jurisdiction. This bilateral control severely limits Iran's ability to enforce a complete blockade without provoking Oman or other Gulf states, which would escalate the conflict into a broader regional war. The US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, further tilts the balance. With its carrier strike groups, destroyers, and air superiority, the fleet possesses overwhelming firepower to counter Iran's naval and missile threats. While Iran's asymmetric tactics may cause temporary disruptions, they cannot match the sustained power projection of the US Navy. The Fifth Fleet's ability to secure the Strait, supported by allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, ensures that any Iranian blockade would be short-lived. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran's strategy also risks self-inflicted wounds. By threatening to close the Strait, Iran endangers its own energy exports, which account for a significant portion of its revenue. China, Iran's largest oil buyer, would view such disruptions with alarm, as Beijing relies on stable Gulf energy supplies. Unlike Saddam Hussein, who recklessly attacked oil infrastructure during the Iran-Iraq War, Iran is unlikely to repeat this mistake, aware that alienating China and other trading partners would compound its economic woes. Compounding Iran's challenges is its weakened regional position. Its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, are diminished, with the former reeling from Israel's campaigns and the latter constrained by Lebanon's internal chaos. Iran's influence in Syria and Iraq has waned, eroded by local resistance and external pressures. Domestically, Iran's military is hamstrung by sanctions, outdated equipment, and a lack of air superiority—a critical disadvantage against the US and its allies. Yet this weakness makes Iran dangerous. With its prestige at stake, Tehran may feel compelled to double down and break the ceasefire at the earliest. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran's gambit in the Strait of Hormuz is thus a paradox: a bold strategy born of vulnerability. As a Persian proverb warns, 'Bravado without power is like a lion's roar from a sheep's throat.' Iran's defiance may echo loudly, but it risks being drowned out by the consequences of its own overreach. The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
New Straits Times
25-06-2025
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Iran's 'telegraphed' strikes on Qatari soil paved way to Israel truce
IRAN'S unprecedented strikes on a US base in Qatar were carefully calculated to provide an exit from hostilities with Washington and set up a truce with Israel, according to analysts and an official. Monday's missile launches were signalled well in advance, minimising the risk of injury and giving every opportunity to shoot down the projectiles – resulting in a fireworks display of booms and flashes above Doha. They followed heavy US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at the weekend, a sudden escalation that raised concerns about how Teheran, after more than a week of exchanges with Israel, would respond. In the event, gas-rich Qatar, 190 kilometres (120 miles) south of Iran across the Gulf, held the answer in the form of Al Udeid, the Middle East's biggest US base and headquarters of its regional command. Targeting a United States base, rather than inciting fury, triggered a calm reaction from President Donald Trump, who thanked Iran for giving "early notice." Qatar condemned the strikes – Iran's first on a Gulf country's territory – but its prime minister said the response would be diplomatic and legal, rather than military. Hours after the attack, Trump announced a ceasefire that both Israel and Iran later said they would accept. A source with knowledge of the talks said Doha had spoken to Teheran and "persuaded" it to stop fighting. Chatham House geopolitics specialist Neil Quilliam said the attack was "clearly limited" and "intended to satisfy Iran's population that its leadership responded forcibly to the US air strikes on Saturday." Iran had promised to inflict "serious, unpredictable consequences" on the US for joining its ally Israel's campaign against the Islamic republic with strikes on three nuclear sites. The wealthy Gulf states, which host a number of US military sites, had been preparing for days for a possible strike by Iran. A week before Qatar was targeted, Bahrain, home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, tested its civil defence sirens. Also last week, dozens of US military aircraft disappeared from the tarmac at Al Udeid, according to satellite images published by Planet Labs PBC and analysed by AFP. In the hours before the attack, the US embassy in Qatar advised Americans there not to go out, with some other Western embassies echoing the warning. Shortly before the strikes, air traffic was suspended over Qatar "as part of a set of precautionary measures", the country's foreign ministry said. Ali Vaez, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group said Iran's action against Qatar was "symbolic" and "calibrated and telegraphed in a way that would not result in any American casualties, so that there is an off-ramp for both sides." According to the source with knowledge of the talks, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani spoke to the Iranians at Washington's request after the strikes. Trump told Qatar's emir that Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, before US Vice President JD Vance spoke to the prime minister "who persuaded Iran to agree to the proposal in a call with the Iranians", the source said. Vaez said the "good relationship between Iran and Qatar is the reason that Iran opted to strike... the Al Udeid base in Qatar." Before the attack, there had been speculation that Iran could target US forces based in Iraq or elsewhere in the region. "I see this as a continuation of Qatar's mediation between Iran and the United States, that it has taken this punch as a means of trying to prevent further escalation," Vaez added. Quilliam said: "While Qatar's official responses to the attacks condemned Iran, it also pushed forward a deeper message about ending conflict in the region."
Iraqi News
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Iraqi News
How Iran's ‘telegraphed' strikes on Qatari soil paved way to Israel truce
Doha – Iran's unprecedented strikes on a US base in Qatar were carefully calculated to provide an exit from hostilities with Washington and set up a truce with Israel, according to analysts and an official. Monday's missile launches were signalled well in advance, minimising the risk of injury and giving every opportunity to shoot down the projectiles — resulting in a fireworks display of booms and flashes above Doha. They followed heavy US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at the weekend, a sudden escalation that raised concerns about how Tehran, after more than a week of exchanges with Israel, would respond. In the event, gas-rich Qatar, 190 kilometres (120 miles) south of Iran across the Gulf, held the answer in the form of Al Udeid, the Middle East's biggest US base and headquarters of its regional command. Targeting a United States base, rather than inciting fury, triggered a calm reaction from President Donald Trump, who thanked Iran for giving 'early notice'. Qatar condemned the strikes — Iran's first on a Gulf country's territory — but its prime minister said the response would be diplomatic and legal, rather than military. Hours after the attack, Trump announced a ceasefire that both Israel and Iran later said they would accept. A source with knowledge of the talks said Doha had spoken to Tehran and 'persuaded' it to stop fighting. – 'Off ramp' – Chatham House geopolitics specialist Neil Quilliam said the attack was 'clearly limited' and 'intended to satisfy Iran's population that its leadership responded forcibly to the US air strikes on Saturday'. Iran had promised to inflict 'serious, unpredictable consequences' on the US for joining its ally Israel's campaign against the Islamic republic with strikes on three nuclear sites. The wealthy Gulf states, which host a number of US military sites, had been preparing for days for a possible strike by Iran. A week before Qatar was targeted, Bahrain, home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, tested its civil defence sirens. Also last week, dozens of US military aircraft disappeared from the tarmac at Al Udeid, according to satellite images published by Planet Labs PBC and analysed by AFP. In the hours before the attack, the US embassy in Qatar advised Americans there not to go out, with some other Western embassies echoing the warning. Shortly before the strikes, air traffic was suspended over Qatar 'as part of a set of precautionary measures', the country's foreign ministry said. Ali Vaez, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group said Iran's action against Qatar was 'symbolic' and 'calibrated and telegraphed in a way that would not result in any American casualties, so that there is an off-ramp for both sides'. – 'Taken this punch' – According to the source with knowledge of the talks, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani spoke to the Iranians at Washington's request after the strikes. Trump told Qatar's emir that Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, before US Vice President JD Vance spoke to the prime minister 'who persuaded Iran to agree to the proposal in a call with the Iranians', the source said. Vaez said the 'good relationship between Iran and Qatar is the reason that Iran opted to strike… the Al Udeid base in Qatar'. Before the attack, there had been speculation that Iran could target US forces based in Iraq or elsewhere in the region. 'I see this as a continuation of Qatar's mediation between Iran and the United States, that it has taken this punch as a means of trying to prevent further escalation,' Vaez added. Quilliam said: 'While Qatar's official responses to the attacks condemned Iran, it also pushed forward a deeper message about ending conflict in the region.'
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
How Iran's 'telegraphed' strikes on Qatari soil paved way to Israel truce
Iran's unprecedented strikes on a US base in Qatar were carefully calculated to provide an exit from hostilities with Washington and set up a truce with Israel, according to analysts and an official. Monday's missile launches were signalled well in advance, minimising the risk of injury and giving every opportunity to shoot down the projectiles -- resulting in a fireworks display of booms and flashes above Doha. They followed heavy US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at the weekend, a sudden escalation that raised concerns about how Tehran, after more than a week of exchanges with Israel, would respond. In the event, gas-rich Qatar, 190 kilometres (120 miles) south of Iran across the Gulf, held the answer in the form of Al Udeid, the Middle East's biggest US base and headquarters of its regional command. Targeting a United States base, rather than inciting fury, triggered a calm reaction from President Donald Trump, who thanked Iran for giving "early notice". Qatar condemned the strikes -- Iran's first on a Gulf country's territory -- but its prime minister said the response would be diplomatic and legal, rather than military. Hours after the attack, Trump announced a ceasefire that both Israel and Iran later said they would accept. A source with knowledge of the talks said Doha had spoken to Tehran and "persuaded" it to stop fighting. - 'Off ramp' - Chatham House geopolitics specialist Neil Quilliam said the attack was "clearly limited" and "intended to satisfy Iran's population that its leadership responded forcibly to the US air strikes on Saturday". Iran had promised to inflict "serious, unpredictable consequences" on the US for joining its ally Israel's campaign against the Islamic republic with strikes on three nuclear sites. The wealthy Gulf states, which host a number of US military sites, had been preparing for days for a possible strike by Iran. A week before Qatar was targeted, Bahrain, home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, tested its civil defence sirens. Also last week, dozens of US military aircraft disappeared from the tarmac at Al Udeid, according to satellite images published by Planet Labs PBC and analysed by AFP. In the hours before the attack, the US embassy in Qatar advised Americans there not to go out, with some other Western embassies echoing the warning. Shortly before the strikes, air traffic was suspended over Qatar "as part of a set of precautionary measures", the country's foreign ministry said. Ali Vaez, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group said Iran's action against Qatar was "symbolic" and "calibrated and telegraphed in a way that would not result in any American casualties, so that there is an off-ramp for both sides". - 'Taken this punch' - According to the source with knowledge of the talks, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani spoke to the Iranians at Washington's request after the strikes. Trump told Qatar's emir that Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, before US Vice President JD Vance spoke to the prime minister "who persuaded Iran to agree to the proposal in a call with the Iranians", the source said. Vaez said the "good relationship between Iran and Qatar is the reason that Iran opted to strike... the Al Udeid base in Qatar". Before the attack, there had been speculation that Iran could target US forces based in Iraq or elsewhere in the region. "I see this as a continuation of Qatar's mediation between Iran and the United States, that it has taken this punch as a means of trying to prevent further escalation," Vaez added. Quilliam said: "While Qatar's official responses to the attacks condemned Iran, it also pushed forward a deeper message about ending conflict in the region." csp/th/dcp
RTÉ News
24-06-2025
- Politics
- RTÉ News
How Iran's 'telegraphed' strikes on Qatari soil paved way to Israel truce
Iran's unprecedented strikes on a US base in Qatar were carefully calculated to provide an exit from hostilities with Washington and set up a truce with Israel, according to analysts and an official. Yesterday's missile launches were signalled well in advance, minimising the risk of injury and giving every opportunity to shoot down the projectiles - resulting in a fireworks display of booms and flashes above Doha. They followed heavy US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at the weekend, a sudden escalation that raised concerns about how Tehran, after more than a week of exchanges with Israel, would respond. In the event, gas-rich Qatar, 190km south of Iran across the Gulf, held the answer in the form of Al Udeid, the Middle East's biggest US base and headquarters of its regional command. Targeting a United States base, rather than inciting fury, triggered a calm reaction from President Donald Trump, who thanked Iran for giving "early notice". Qatar condemned the strikes - Iran's first on a Gulf country's territory - but its prime minister said the response would be diplomatic and legal, rather than military. Hours after the attack, Mr Trump announced a ceasefire that both Israel and Iran later said they would accept. A source with knowledge of the talks said Doha had spoken to Tehran and "persuaded" it to stop fighting. 'Off ramp' Chatham House geopolitics specialist Neil Quilliam said the attack was "clearly limited" and "intended to satisfy Iran's population that its leadership responded forcibly to the US air strikes on Saturday". Iran had promised to inflict "serious, unpredictable consequences" on the US for joining its ally Israel's campaign against the Islamic republic with strikes on three nuclear sites. The wealthy Gulf states, which host a number of US military sites, had been preparing for days for a possible strike by Iran. A week before Qatar was targeted, Bahrain, home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, tested its civil defence sirens. Also last week, dozens of US military aircraft disappeared from the tarmac at Al Udeid, according to satellite images published by Planet Labs PBC and analysed by AFP. In the hours before the attack, the US embassy in Qatar advised Americans there not to go out, with some other Western embassies echoing the warning. Shortly before the strikes, air traffic was suspended over Qatar "as part of a set of precautionary measures", the country's foreign ministry said. Ali Vaez, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group said Iran's action against Qatar was "symbolic" and "calibrated and telegraphed in a way that would not result in any American casualties, so that there is an off-ramp for both sides". 'Taken this punch' According to the source with knowledge of the talks, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani spoke to the Iranians at Washington's request after the strikes. Mr Trump told Qatar's emir that Israel had agreed to a ceasefire before US Vice President JD Vance spoke to the prime minister "who persuaded Iran to agree to the proposal in a call with the Iranians", the source said. Mr Vaez said the "good relationship between Iran and Qatar is the reason that Iran opted to strike... the Al Udeid base in Qatar". Before the attack, there had been speculation that Iran could target US forces based in Iraq or elsewhere in the region. "I see this as a continuation of Qatar's mediation between Iran and the United States, that it has taken this punch as a means of trying to prevent further escalation," Mr Vaez added. Mr Quilliam said: "While Qatar's official responses to the attacks condemned Iran, it also pushed forward a deeper message about ending conflict in the region."
