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New York Times
02-06-2025
- Entertainment
- New York Times
Scouting Aidan Miller, Max Anderson, Jett Williams, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and more
I caught a day game in Reading last week to get a look at a couple of hitters in the Fightin Phils' lineup and that of the Double-A Erie Seawolves. I got a two-hour pitchers' duel, with the final score 1-0, and the hitters I was there to see went a collective 1-for-11. Phillies shortstop Aidan Miller is in my top 10 prospects now, despite a soft start to his 2025 season, as I remain confident he's going to stick at short and that he's going to hit. Advertisement He started the year in Double A even though he won't turn 21 until next week, and had just one year of pro ball under his belt before 2025. After a slow April, he hit better in May, with a .274/.358/.417 line on the month. I saw none of that, unless you count the foul home run he hit down the third-base line, after which he popped up on a slider. He's got bat speed, he swings hard, and he doesn't expand the zone much at all — his outs and even his one whiff in this game were all on strikes. Miller played excellent defense at short, showing great instincts, nailing a runner who tried to go second to third on a groundball to short, with a 60 (out of the 20-80 scouting scale) arm. He has to keep hitting, of course, but I do believe he's going to do so. Detroit infielder Max Anderson has been hitting well all season for Erie, spurring at least one reader to ask why he wasn't on my ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors from last week. The short answer to that is that it's a ranking based on long-term outlook and potential rather than short-term performance, but in Anderson's specific case, it's that his game is really limited beyond the hit tool. He will get to the majors and probably play for a while because his ability to put the ball in play and do so hard enough to sustain solid or better batting averages is real. He's hitting .339/.378/.554 through Friday's games with just a 16.1 percent strikeout rate. As you can infer from the triple-slash line, though, he doesn't walk (5 percent on the dot) and swings at a lot of pitches beyond the zone. And while he does hit the ball pretty hard, his hands are so far out from his body that he doesn't have great control or direction, so there aren't a ton of line drives here and I question whether that .200+ ISO power is sustainable. In the field, he has no position. He was standing at second base and had very limited range, even ceding a play to the shortstop on his side of the bag at one point. He's built like a catcher, but as far as I know, he's never played back there, at least not since high school. If you back all of this up and just assume he'll still hit .300 even with the approach and swing questions, just without many walks and maybe more of a .450-ish slug, that's an above-average regular if he sticks at second base and maybe not a regular at first base or DH. He's an outlier in many ways, but if you sum up all of the probabilities here, the expected value is probably an average regular or below. Oh, and the runner Miller threw out trying to go second to third on a grounder to short? That was Anderson, with the TOOTBLAN. Thayron Liranzo is off to a lousy start for Erie, and it wasn't a great day for him at the plate, with some bad whiffs on pitches he either should have hit (90 mph in the zone from a right-hander) or laid off (several sliders down below the zone). He was fine behind the plate, not challenged in any way, and he does have bat speed. He got off to a terrible start last year as well, pulling out of it in May, so maybe he's just someone who needs a longer adjustment period. His swing decisions in this game were bad, and that lines up with his year to date, unfortunately. Advertisement I also went down to Bowie, Maryland, to see the team now known as the Chesapeake Baysox — and sometimes as the, uh, Oyster Catchers — but got just six innings and change before the rains returned, ending that game. (Their game Wednesday was rained out, and as I'm writing this on Saturday afternoon it's pouring here in Delaware again.) The Mets' Double-A affiliate, the Binghamton Rumble Ponies, were in town, and their top prospect at the moment, shortstop Jett Williams, was leading off. He looked very good at the plate, like his injury-marred 2024 season never happened, driving the ball well and running plus again. It's a big swing for a fun-sized guy — the Rumble Ponies had two players in their lineup who were 5-foot-6, Williams and Wyatt Young, so I felt seen — and Williams is going to have to max out his strength to make this swing work; otherwise it's a lot of flyouts, because he swings like he's going to hit it 450 feet. He doesn't chase much at all, and he barely puts the ball on the ground, which are good things as long as you have enough juice for those balls in the air to at least be doubles, not outs. He can play shortstop, but that's academic as long as he's in the Mets' system. Binghamton centerfielder Nick Morabito was 1-for-3 with an infield single that went about 10 feet, showing off plus speed, and he was caught looking on a pretty good pitch to hit. He was tentative in center field, so the speed isn't translating into plus range. The one prospect in Chesapeake's lineup was Enrique Bradfield Jr., Baltimore's first-rounder in 2023, who is recently back from a hamstring injury. He bunted in his first at-bat, I think an attempt to drag a bunt that failed, which would probably have made me scream if I were the Orioles' farm director — this kid needs to swing the bat, not advance the runners. I got one proper swing from him, where he completely collapsed his back side and was swinging uphill, popping the ball up. Orioles right-hander Levi Wells was their fourth-round pick in 2023 out of Texas State, then showed up last year with more velocity, bumping 97. This year, he's sitting 97-98 on the four-seamer and bumping 102, with a cutter, slider and curveball rounding out the arsenal. It's an odd package, though, as none of the pitches actually misses bats — the fastball doesn't have a lot of life or movement, the cutter is hard but also not that sharp, and the curveball might actually be the best offering of the bunch even though it's the slowest. Advertisement Mets left-hander Zach Thornton, their fifth-rounder last year out of Grand Canyon, is having a terrific season so far, with a 2.30 ERA since his promotion to Double A. It's all deception, though; he comes from a high slot with some cross-fire action, mostly 90-92 with nothing to miss bats in the zone. (Top photo of Miller: George Kubas / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
New York Times
29-05-2025
- General
- New York Times
Phillies minors notes: Aidan Miller trusted his plan, Seth Johnson's bullpen move and more
Phillies No. 2 prospect Aidan Miller tinkered with the basics when struggling at the plate last season: his leg kick, where to start his hands, his stance. Nothing major, but enough messing around to worsen his problems. So when Miller batted .203 over 19 games in April for Double-A Reading, he did not hit the panic button again. He trusted his plan at the plate. Advertisement 'Not trying to change too much with my swing, mechanical-wise or anything, just going out there every single day and treating it like a new day — it really helped me get out of that,' Miller said. The 20-year-old shortstop, the Phillies' top pick in the 2023 MLB amateur draft, has emerged stronger. Miller is slashing .247/.329/.356 with a .685 OPS across 20 games in May, riding a 10-game hitting streak through Saturday. He knows slumps happen to everyone. He stayed the course. There was no big turnaround. Balls that previously went straight to the defense started to fall, Miller said, lifting a mental weight. AIDAN MILLER🤩 — Reading Fightin Phils (@ReadingFightins) May 17, 2025 The Phillies took a swing on Miller, a top high school hitter who fell to No. 27 in the 2023 draft after missing much of his senior season with a hamate fracture in his left hand. Their belief paid off as Miller ascended from Low-A Clearwater to Double-A Reading last season, posting an .811 OPS and tallying 45 extra-base hits while earning a spot in the Futures Game. And, even as Miller worked through struggles in April, he walked 11 times and reached base in 16 consecutive games. Miller went from playing four to five games a week in 2024 to six days a week now. Health is his top priority with greater playing time, so he's focused more on routine: eating healthy, hitting the weight room, treating soft tissue when needed. Keeping this routine has gotten easier with time. So has trusting himself at the plate. Both have paid dividends. Triple-A Lehigh Valley right-hander Seth Johnson has a nice two-pitch mix and compelling stuff — part of why the Phillies moved him to a bullpen role in April. But it's his flexibility that stands out most to Triple-A manager Anthony Contreras. Advertisement 'Once you have a starter come out to the bullpen, that type of utility in a pitching role is going to be valuable for him going forward,' Contreras said. 'Just being able to make that adjustment that quickly is probably the most impressive thing.' Johnson, drafted 40th by Tampa Bay in 2019, has made flexibility central to his career. He pitched with the Rays organization for four years before being traded to the Orioles in August 2022. After two seasons in Baltimore's system — a significant chunk of it spent recovering from Tommy John surgery — he was sent to the Phillies as part of the Gregory Soto trade last July. So, when Contreras called Johnson into his office when the IronPigs were in Gwinnett in April, Johnson figured he was being traded again. 'I was relieved at first,' the right-handed pitcher said. 'I didn't have to go pack up all my stuff again. I knew moving to the bullpen was a possibility this year, so it was kind of nice hearing it early in the year.' It's a move the Phillies believe gives Johnson a better chance to make an impact in the big leagues. He hasn't appeared for the Phillies since he debuted with a spot start against the Miami Marlins in September 2024. It did not go well. He allowed nine runs and walked three batters, becoming just the second MLB pitcher to post those numbers in his debut — and the first since 1912. His big-league ERA sits at 34.71 in 2 1/3 innings. Contreras said the club hoped that shifting Johnson to shorter outings would up his velocity. 'With the big arm, not having to pitch five, six, seven innings every fifth day, he's able to kind of blow it out — put everything he has into one, two, maybe three innings depending on how we use him,' Contreras said. 'He seems to be adjusting well.' Before Johnson moved to the bullpen, he'd been a reliever just once: at Campbell University, playing in the Big South conference tournament in May 2019. There's not much to take away from that short-lived stint. The biggest learning curve, he said, is being ready all the time. Johnson has been following everyone else's lead in the pen: moving in the third or fourth inning and staying loose. But he's felt more comfortable with time, finding that he doesn't need an hour to get ready to pitch. Fifteen throws will do. Advertisement The decision to transition Johnson was made before reliever José Alvarado's 80-game PED suspension, which has elevated the importance of bullpen help for the Phillies. But control remains an issue for Johnson and would need to improve before a call-up. He's averaging 5.91 walks per nine innings — mostly a result of walking a combined 10 batters across three starts in April. The numbers have somewhat improved, as he's walked four batters and hit one across 8 2/3 innings in May. • There was no stumble from pitcher Mick Abel as he returned to Lehigh Valley after his nine-strikeout debut for the Phillies on May 18. He loaded the bases after two walks, a single and a force-out in the first inning Saturday against the Buffalo Bisons, but escaped with one run scored. Abel went on to strike out eight, walk four and allow three hits in six innings. Abel's breakout 2025 comes after a difficult 2024 in which he lost command en route to a 6.46 ERA. He simplified his approach to pitching over the offseason, which proved key to earning his first big league call-up. 'With time and age comes experience and maturity, and that plays into success,' Contreras said. 'I think he's reaping the benefits of making the adjustments going into this year.' • Top 2024 Phillies draft picks have struggled to find their footing this season with Low-A Clearwater. Outfielder Griffin Burkholder, a second-round selection, has had limited at-bats due to hamstring injuries. He and first-rounder Dante Nori are both searching for power. Burkholder's average exit velocity: 85.1 mph. Nori's? 86.7 mph. The average exit velocity for tracked pitches in Low A this season is 87.3 mph. • Reliever Tommy McCollum struck out a Double-A season-high three in two innings in Portland on May 25 and leads Reading with a 0.96 ERA. The undrafted righty has thrown more strikes this season, though his pitches sit at 93 mph. But his size and the pitches looking harder than they actually are have been enough to confound batters. The 25-year-old, who moved to Double A earlier this month, could reach Triple-A this season if he keeps it up. • Another undrafted standout: Double-A outfielder Keaton Anthony. The 23-year-old was ensnared in a gambling scandal as a college baseball player at Iowa, though he faced no charges. The Phillies signed him in July 2023, and Anthony has excelled ever since. He's hitting .321/.384/.507 with a .891 OPS in 37 games with Reading this season. Advertisement • Low-A closer Titan Hayes has shown flashes this season, working his way to a 2.12 ERA — and 0.00 in nine innings in April — and six saves. The 2024 11th-rounder's fastball sits at 97 mph, though he's struggled to throw consistent strikes. Should he stay the course, a High-A promotion could pose a good test in June or July. — The Athletic's Matt Gelb contributed to this report. (Top photo of Aidan Miller: Mitchell Leff / Philadelphia Phillies)
