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Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Indian rupee range-bound despite weaker US dollar, set to trail most Asian peers: Reuters poll
By Pranoy Krishna BENGALURU (Reuters) -The Indian rupee will trade in a narrow range over the next six months as global risk-off sentiment slows capital inflows to a trickle, potentially offsetting gains from a weaker U.S. dollar, a Reuters poll of FX analysts showed. Despite the dollar index falling nearly 11% so far this year, the rupee has remained largely stable. The Reserve Bank of India has been shoring up its reserves to near record levels to limit volatility and to meet dollar obligations when needed. Foreign portfolio investors have been net sellers of Indian assets this year. Most strategists in the June 30–July 2 Reuters poll said they did not expect the rupee to make any meaningful gains. This comes even as global investors sell American assets over concerns rising debt levels in the world's largest economy are unsustainable in the long run. In three months the rupee is forecast to be down around 0.1% from current levels at 85.75 per dollar. It is then expected to trade at 85.50 in six months and weaken marginally to 86.13 in a year, according to the median forecast of 41 FX strategists. "The overall trend for USD/INR should be downward, with the Fed cutting rates, the dollar index falling and possibly a breakthrough on the U.S. trade deal in the coming days," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. "It's going to be a slow and steady journey for the rupee because the RBI is currently buying dollars to meet its liabilities." U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday a trade deal could be reached with India. The rupee has been a laggard compared to most regional peers, down around 0.1% for the year. The Korean won, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar have gained more than 5%. However, the RBI's recent policy stance shift to "neutral," signalling the end of its brief rate-cutting cycle, may help underpin the currency. "(Given) better growth prospects, with a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus being front-loaded and the expectation India might end up benefiting on the trade front compared to peers, there is a case for the rupee to somewhat appreciate from where we are today," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank. (Other stories from the July foreign exchange poll)
Time of India
24-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
How will rising crude oil prices affect rupee and India's economy?
Mumbai: The rupee and attendant hedging costs to minimise the impact of its volatility have hitherto shown little susceptibility to the Middle East conflict, with investors focused on the potential retaliation by Iran to predict the pricing direction for crude oil. The rupee weakened to 86.86 per dollar Monday, before closing at 86.75/$1, about 17 paise weaker. RBI likely sold dollars above 86.80/$1 levels, traders said. The rupee traded between 86.66/$1 and 86.86/$1 on Monday. Brent crude oil prices hit a five-month peak of $81.40 per barrel earlier in the day but pared gains to be last quoted at $77.4 per barrel, according to Reuters. A rise in crude oil prices is detrimental for inflation in India as the country is a large importer of the commodity. Agencies "The rupee fell to 86.86/$1 due to higher oil prices in the morning. Oil prices cooled a bit, rupee also strengthened, which gave importers an opportunity to buy dollars for their near term imports. However, strong dollar demand from oil companies put pressure on the currency and the rupee could not appreciate past 86.66/$1," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. Traders are expecting the rupee to be in the range of 86.50/$1 to 86.90/$1 on Tuesday, assuming that oil prices do not rise substantially. "With every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices increasing India's current account deficit by 0.4% of GDP... India's current account deficit will likely rise above 2% of GDP if oil prices were to spike," MUFG Bank said in a note on June 23. India's current account deficit was at 1.1% of GDP during the October-December 2024 quarter, latest data shows.
Economic Times
24-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
How will rising crude oil prices affect rupee and India's economy?
Mumbai: The rupee and attendant hedging costs to minimise the impact of its volatility have hitherto shown little susceptibility to the Middle East conflict, with investors focused on the potential retaliation by Iran to predict the pricing direction for crude oil. The rupee weakened to 86.86 per dollar Monday, before closing at 86.75/$1, about 17 paise weaker. ADVERTISEMENT RBI likely sold dollars above 86.80/$1 levels, traders said. The rupee traded between 86.66/$1 and 86.86/$1 on Monday. Brent crude oil prices hit a five-month peak of $81.40 per barrel earlier in the day but pared gains to be last quoted at $77.4 per barrel, according to Reuters. A rise in crude oil prices is detrimental for inflation in India as the country is a large importer of the commodity. "The rupee fell to 86.86/$1 due to higher oil prices in the morning. Oil prices cooled a bit, rupee also strengthened, which gave importers an opportunity to buy dollars for their near term imports. However, strong dollar demand from oil companies put pressure on the currency and the rupee could not appreciate past 86.66/$1," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. Traders are expecting the rupee to be in the range of 86.50/$1 to 86.90/$1 on Tuesday, assuming that oil prices do not rise substantially. "With every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices increasing India's current account deficit by 0.4% of GDP... India's current account deficit will likely rise above 2% of GDP if oil prices were to spike," MUFG Bank said in a note on June 23. ADVERTISEMENT India's current account deficit was at 1.1% of GDP during the October-December 2024 quarter, latest data shows. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
21-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Rupee gains 14 paise on Trump hint of no Iran action for now, equity flows
The Indian rupee modestly strengthened Friday, its first advance in six days tracking inflows into domestic equities, to close at 86.58 per dollar. The rupee climbed 14 paise despite volatile oil prices and no immediate signs of a truce in the Israel-Iran conflict. The strength in the rupee came after US President Donald Trump signalled to avoid any precipitate action on Iran. Rebalancing of the FTSE Russell index also led to some flows, traders said. The rupee traded between 86.54 and 86.67 to the dollar on Friday. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Direct Shopping From Adidas Franchise Store, Up To 50% Off Original Adidas Get Offer Undo Brent crude oil prices remained elevated at $77 per barrel, while the dollar index was at 98. A rise in crude oil prices is detrimental to inflation in India as the country is a large importer of the commodity. "Chances of rupee strengthening are very low while crude oil prices are this high. The gain we have seen today is all because of Trump's comments to postpone strikes on Iran," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. The Reserve Bank of India was likely absent today and did not intervene, traders said. "The rebalancing flows of the FTSE Russell Index did help, but dollar demand was strong too, which countered the inflow," a trader said. Foreign investors bought Indian equities worth ₹7,940.7 crore on Friday. Live Events "The only positive we have seen is that FPIs are not large sellers in Indian equities," Bhansali said.
Time of India
19-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Rupee slips 24 paise on corporate hedging as oil surges
Mumbai: The Indian rupee on Wednesday weakened past the psychologically significant 86.50 per dollar mark and touched 86.56/$1-its weakest in over two months-amid dollar demand from oil companies and corporates for hedging. The currency closed at 86.48 per dollar, 24 paisa weaker, LSEG data showed. RBI interventions were muted, though they helped contain excess losses, traders said. "Without intervention rupee would have weakened to 87," a trader from a public sector bank said. Brent oil crude prices rose to $77.6 per barrel on Wednesday amid mounting concerns of supply disruption as the war between Iran and Israel continued. "Foreign investors were sellers in equities and oil companies bought dollars," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors. "We may see rupee moving between 86.25 and 87 (on Thursday) if we don't see ceasefire in Middle East," Bhanslai said. Traders are now awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision late on Wednesday.
