6 days ago
During earnings season, two ETFs may signal how bullish investors feel about U.S. economy and consumer
Concerns about the consumer are still running high on Wall Street, even after the market's big comeback to a new record from the tariff-triggered downturn of April. While the worst fears about Trump's trade policies and inflation have not come to pass, Goldman Sachs is among Wall Street firms expecting a growth slowdown and a more cautious consumer ahead.
As earnings season picks up, one simple market gauge on how bullish or bearish investors are on the consumer can be found in the performance of consumer discretionary and consumer staples ETFs.
As Todd Sohn, senior ETF and technical analyst at Strategas Asset Management explained it on a recent CNBC "ETF Edge" podcast, "If discretionary is outperforming, that means auto, retails, homebuilders, are working against toothpaste and toilet paper. Adversely, if the staples are outperforming, that means the market does not like the earnings and would suggest a more defensive tone," said.
Into earnings season, consumer discretionary ETFs have outperformed consumer staples.
Over the past month, top consumer discretionary ETFs have outperformed consumer staples funds, such as the First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX ETF (FXD ) and Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS ).
Looking at the oldest and broadest consumer funds in the ETF space, within the Select Sector SPDR family that tracks all of the major sectors within the S&P 500 on a stand-alone basis, there's been a reversal in performance of late. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP ) is up 4% this year but only 1% in the past month. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY ), meanwhile, is up over 5% during the past month while trailing staples year-to-date.
The recent outperformance of discretionary continued through the first week of earnings season.
Some of the top consumer staples ETFs in recent trading, meanwhile, have been narrower in focus, such Invesco's small-cap consumer staples ETF (PSCC ) and the Invesco's equal-weighted S&P 500 consumer staples portfolio (RSPS ) which stands out from the market-weighted XLP.
