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The Guardian
08-07-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Macron will enjoy his royal welcome. But the Franco-British relationship remains a love-hate affair
Britain and France are so close that there's a saying in Wimereux, a seafront resort on the north French coast, that if you can see England it's going to rain, and if you can't, it's because it's already raining. Despite – or perhaps because of – that geographical proximity, Europe's two nuclear powers have historically been adversaries as often as friends, and frequently a bit of both. While France lacks a feral press to sustain public contempt for the tribal enemy with the unique talent of the British tabloids, that enduring love-hate relationship is the indelible backdrop to this week's state visit to the UK by President Emmanuel Macron. Even if solidarity and fortitude in the face of Russian aggression and American unreliability is the flavour of the week, the relationship remains an enduring mix of friendship, rivalry, mutual admiration and suspicion. Tellingly, this is the first state visit by a European leader in the nine years since the British people, in their infinite wisdom, voted to leave the European Union. Keir Starmer's cautious effort to repair some of the economic and political damage from that act of self-harm has faced French obstruction on any matter related to closer economic ties, including the totemic issue of fishing rights. As long as Starmer sticks to his red lines of no return to the EU's single market or customs union, and no free movement of people between the continent and Britain, he will face dogged resistance from Paris against any attempt to soften the consequences of Brexit. Both leaders have domestic problems. Macron is a lame duck who cannot seek re-election in 2027 and does not have a parliamentary majority. He regained the power to dissolve the National Assembly this week, but to do so again after last year's fiasco would be a recidivistic suicide. Starmer has only been in office a year and enjoys a giant majority. But he failed last week to force through welfare reforms after a revolt in his Labour party, leaving him with a budget hole and an authority crisis. Both men are constrained by the rise of far-right populist parties that are exploiting public discontent over immigration and identity issues. All the warmth of a royal welcome at Windsor Castle, a horse-drawn carriage parade and a stroll through the restored nature reserve in Windsor Great Park will not move the French president to ease his opposition to any EU special treatment for the UK, despite its strategic importance to Europe in this new age of geopolitical turbulence. In French minds, this is about defending the club that the UK quit, preserving the EU and its prized single market from unravelling and – though Macron would not say this publicly – ensuring that the UK's gamble on prospering outside the union is not successful. It is important to be able to point to British economic losses 'pour encourager les autres', as Voltaire might have said. There will be lots of togetherness on defence at Thursday's political summit, and plenty of talk in Macron's ceremonial address to parliament of the two countries standing together to uphold a rules-based international order (are you listening, Donald?), to support Ukraine (are you listening, Vladimir and Donald?) and to strengthen Europe's defences within Nato (ditto). The UK and France have Europe's most robust armies and strategic cultures, yet both are so hemmed in by debt and welfare costs that they will struggle to meet the Nato pledge they agreed last month to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035, of which 3.5% will be devoted to core military outlays. Starmer and Macron will jointly chair a meeting of the 'coalition of the willing' created to give security guarantees to Ukraine, held symbolically at Nato's maritime headquarters in Northwood, outside London. It sends a message of European determination to stand by Ukraine at a time when the US is winding down military support as Russia steps up its war of aggression. US disengagement from European security will be a crucial, if largely unspoken sub-theme to the Franco-British rapprochement on strategic affairs. It's worth paying particularly close attention to what both leaders say about the scope of their nuclear deterrence and the degree to which they consider their vital interests to extend beyond national borders to the rest of Europe. Nuclear doctrine moves by millimetres. Given increasing uncertainty over the reliability of the US nuclear guarantee for Europe in the Trump era, it will be interesting to see whether Starmer and Macron go beyond what a previous generation of British and French leaders declared in 1995, when the then prime minister John Major said: 'The president [Jacques Chirac] and I have concluded that the vital interests of one could not be threatened without the vital interests of the other equally being at risk.' Successive French leaders, while maintaining a degree of strategic ambiguity, have cautiously extended that nuclear doctrine to make clear that France's vital interests reach beyond its borders and 'have a European dimension'. In the light of Trump's equivocation, Macron recently proposed a strategic dialogue with willing European partners on this issue. Ideally, Starmer and Macron would develop the Major-Chirac formula to include an explicit mention of the vital interests of European allies. More likely, they might jointly offer consultations with European partners on nuclear deterrence. That would be another step towards a European defence identity within Nato. Paul Taylor is a senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre
The Guardian
08-07-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Macron will enjoy his royal welcome. But the Franco-British relationship remains a love-hate affair
Britain and France are so close that there's a saying in Wimereux, a seafront resort on the north French coast, that if you can see England it's going to rain, and if you can't, it's because it's already raining. Despite – or perhaps because of – that geographical proximity, Europe's two nuclear powers have historically been adversaries as often as friends, and frequently a bit of both. While France lacks a feral press to sustain public contempt for the tribal enemy with the unique talent of the British tabloids, that enduring love-hate relationship is the indelible backdrop to this week's state visit to the UK by President Emmanuel Macron. Even if solidarity and fortitude in the face of Russian aggression and American unreliability is the flavour of the week, the relationship remains an enduring mix of friendship, rivalry, mutual admiration and suspicion. Tellingly, this is the first state visit by a European leader in the nine years since the British people, in their infinite wisdom, voted to leave the European Union. Keir Starmer's cautious effort to repair some of the economic and political damage from that act of self-harm has faced French obstruction on any matter related to closer economic ties, including the totemic issue of fishing rights. As long as Starmer sticks to his red lines of no return to the EU's single market or customs union, and no free movement of people between the continent and Britain, he will face dogged resistance from Paris against any attempt to soften the consequences of Brexit. Both leaders have domestic problems. Macron is a lame duck who cannot seek re-election in 2027 and does not have a parliamentary majority. He regained the power to dissolve the National Assembly this week, but to do so again after last year's fiasco would be a recidivistic suicide. Starmer has only been in office a year and enjoys a giant majority. But he failed last week to force through welfare reforms after a revolt in his Labour party, leaving him with a budget hole and an authority crisis. Both men are constrained by the rise of far-right populist parties that are exploiting public discontent over immigration and identity issues. All the warmth of a royal welcome at Windsor Castle, a horse-drawn carriage parade and a stroll through the restored nature reserve in Windsor Great Park will not move the French president to ease his opposition to any EU special treatment for the UK, despite its strategic importance to Europe in this new age of geopolitical turbulence. In French minds, this is about defending the club that the UK quit, preserving the EU and its prized single market from unravelling and – though Macron would not say this publicly – ensuring that the UK's gamble on prospering outside the union is not successful. It is important to be able to point to British economic losses 'pour encourager les autres', as Voltaire might have said. There will be lots of togetherness on defence at Thursday's political summit, and plenty of talk in Macron's ceremonial address to parliament of the two countries standing together to uphold a rules-based international order (are you listening, Donald?), to support Ukraine (are you listening, Vladimir and Donald?) and to strengthen Europe's defences within Nato (ditto). The UK and France have Europe's most robust armies and strategic cultures, yet both are so hemmed in by debt and welfare costs that they will struggle to meet the Nato pledge they agreed last month to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035, of which 3.5% will be devoted to core military outlays. Starmer and Macron will jointly chair a meeting of the 'coalition of the willing' created to give security guarantees to Ukraine, held symbolically at Nato's maritime headquarters in Northwood, outside London. It sends a message of European determination to stand by Ukraine at a time when the US is winding down military support as Russia steps up its war of aggression. US disengagement from European security will be a crucial, if largely unspoken sub-theme to the Franco-British rapprochement on strategic affairs. It's worth paying particularly close attention to what both leaders say about the scope of their nuclear deterrence and the degree to which they consider their vital interests to extend beyond national borders to the rest of Europe. Nuclear doctrine moves by millimetres. Given increasing uncertainty over the reliability of the US nuclear guarantee for Europe in the Trump era, it will be interesting to see whether Starmer and Macron go beyond what a previous generation of British and French leaders declared in 1995, when the then prime minister John Major said: 'The president [Jacques Chirac] and I have concluded that the vital interests of one could not be threatened without the vital interests of the other equally being at risk.' Successive French leaders, while maintaining a degree of strategic ambiguity, have cautiously extended that nuclear doctrine to make clear that France's vital interests reach beyond its borders and 'have a European dimension'. In the light of Trump's equivocation, Macron recently proposed a strategic dialogue with willing European partners on this issue. Ideally, Starmer and Macron would develop the Major-Chirac formula to include an explicit mention of the vital interests of European allies. More likely, they might jointly offer consultations with European partners on nuclear deterrence. That would be another step towards a European defence identity within Nato. Paul Taylor is a senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre
Arab News
23-05-2025
- Business
- Arab News
What does ‘reset' deal mean for UK-EU relations?
The EU and the UK this week embarked on a new chapter in their relations by signing a 'reset' deal at their first formal summit since London left the bloc in 2020. Leaders on both sides stressed the significance of this event. Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed hope that 'Britain is back on the world stage,' while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called it a 'historic moment.' However, critics were quick to decry it as a 'betrayal' of the Brexit vote. I believe this deal is a necessity and serves as an adaptation to recent geopolitical developments. The key points agreed involve border regulations for both humans and animals. This includes 'eGate' access for UK passport holders, saving them time when traveling to EU countries. The deal also introduces pet passports as, after Brexit, British pet owners had to obtain a certificate from a vet in the UK before traveling and then a vet in the EU before returning. Pet passports remove the requirement to obtain animal health certificates for every trip. Another topic that has been debated over many years (and which has a complex history) is fishing rights. This has culminated in no alterations to the current access for EU trawlers to UK waters agreed in 2020. It will continue for the next 12 years. EU fishing vessels can fish in British waters, but they require an approved license. The economic and financial matters involve business, taxes and trading systems. One initiative is the introduction of a new sanitary and phytosanitary deal that aims to decrease red tape for most food and drink exports and imports. This could lower food prices and increase the choice on supermarket shelves. Another vital matter is the issue of carbon taxation. Collaboration is expected on emissions, connecting the EU and UK's emissions trading systems. Under the deal, UK businesses will be exempt from the EU's carbon tax, saving the UK £800 million ($1.07 billion) in EU tariffs. Also, British steel exports will be safe from new EU tariffs and rules, which will save the industry £25 million a year. One initiative is the introduction of a new sanitary and phytosanitary deal that aims to decrease red tape. Dr. Diana Galeeva As for defense and security, the UK defense industry is expected to participate in the EU's €150 billion ($169 billion) Security Action for Europe defense fund. The EU and UK will improve their collaboration on accident reporting, in addition to maritime security. Moreover, the parties agreed to enter talks about the UK getting access to EU facial image data to track dangerous criminals. Also, the deal encourages the UK's National Crime Agency and Europol to collaborate in swapping data about serious crimes and terrorism. As part of the deal, the EU and UK have agreed to work toward a youth mobility scheme that will permit people aged 18 to 30 to live and work freely on either side for a limited period of time. This encompasses negotiations over the UK rejoining the EU's Erasmus+ scheme. Migration is another major theme, as the two sides agreed to work on finding solutions to deal with illegal migration, including a joint commitment to deal with English Channel crossings. Finally, the EU and the UK stated that they would study British participation in the bloc's internal electricity market, involving trading platforms. In Britain, the deal has already received predictable criticism as 'surrendering' anew to the EU. 'We're becoming a rule-taker from Brussels once again', bemoaned the leader of the opposition Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch. Meanwhile, the Reform UK party accused the Labour government of 'betraying' the Brexit vote. However, in light of the ongoing global developments, the plan seems a necessity more than anything else — and not just for London, but for Brussels too. Firstly, shared geography is an unignorable factor. The Arab reader will understand this dilemma better than anyone in the world, after years of ongoing debates about how to deal with Iran. While Iranian foreign policies and its nuclear program have been considered a security threat, Iran is adjacent to these countries, so it has been dangerous to directly counter this threat. This means countries have maintained pragmatic relations with Tehran. In light of global developments, the plan seems a necessity more than anything else — and not just for London. Dr. Diana Galeeva In the case of London and Brussels, the situation is a bit different. They currently face the same security threats and the Ukraine war, in particular, unites them. Until the Ukraine war is resolved and the Russian threat eliminated over the longer term, the mutual necessities of London and Brussels will be driven by their geography. Secondly, both the EU and UK share and prioritize democratic values. US Vice President J.D. Vance's remarks at the Munich Security Conference in February demonstrated that the key defenders of normative power remain the EU and the UK. And this is another essential aspect that drives both parties to keep close ties (even amid the current drift away from America). Thirdly, the Trump administration's policies have contributed to the signing of this deal. The first foreign visit of Donald Trump's second term being to the Gulf only further demonstrated that American interests now lie in the Middle East, rather than in Europe. While London and Brussels remain strategic partners, the US is prioritizing its own national interests, which are primarily economic. Finally, the foreign policies of London largely follow the same path as European interests, such as in the case of the Middle East. Both are interested in a stable Syria, releasing pressure on migration flows and reducing the global terrorist threat. This deal shows that their objectives on terrorist threats remain similar. I would not propose taking a negative stance on the deal, as it allows both parties to keep strategic working relations with the other, while the UK is remaining open to the rest of the world. When the global geopolitical situation changes and favors London's interests in another way, British politics might change its course as a result. But today, geography, security and the current US administration's priorities are the key factors that made it a necessity to conclude this so-called reset deal.
