Latest news with #FitchSolutions
Zawya
2 days ago
- Health
- Zawya
Qatar's health expenditure to surge 14% by 2029
DOHA: Qatar's healthcare industry is poised for rapid expansion, with total health spending projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14 percent by 2029, reaching $11.5bn (QR42bn), according to a recent report by Fitch Solutions. Health experts note that this growth would make Qatar the third-largest healthcare market in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the tenth-largest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Despite these impressive figures, analysts at Fitch Solutions stress that Qatar's overall market opportunities are challenging compared to other regional players. This is primarily due to the country's small population size and modest short-term economic growth prospects. 'The numbers show a healthy trajectory, but we must be careful not to confuse high growth rates with large-scale opportunity,' said Dr. Lisa Kurian, a Doha-based public health specialist. 'Qatar's small population means we are working with a narrower base, even if spending per capita is among the highest in the region.' Government investment, driven by the National Development Strategy 2024–2030, continues to underpin the growth in public health expenditure. Meanwhile, the private sector is benefiting from strong per capita health spending and ongoing public-private partnerships. 'Qatar has done well to encourage private sector involvement without compromising public oversight,' said Dr. Kurian adding that projects like Surgi Art Hospital are proof that collaboration is driving innovation in patient care. On the other hand, digital transformation is also playing a key role in ensuring efficient healthcare delivery. Government-backed initiatives like the Smart Programme (TASMU) aim to leverage big data, AI, and integrated electronic health records to streamline services and prevent resource bottlenecks. In July 2024, the government signed an agreement with AI firm Lunit to introduce AI-powered breast cancer screening tools across primary health centres—an initiative expected to enhance early detection and reduce long-term costs. 'Investing in AI for diagnostics is not just about innovation—it's about sustainability. Early diagnosis means better outcomes and lower treatment costs, which is critical for long-term health system viability, the medical expert said. She also emphasised that 'Technology cannot replace people. Without well-trained, adequately supported staff, even the most advanced tools will fall short of their potential.' As Qatar positions itself as a leader in high-value healthcare within the region, striking the right balance between innovation, infrastructure, and human capital will be critical. Additionally, researchers highlight that the next phase of development must focus on systemic resilience, ensuring that digital health tools, regulatory frameworks, and a capable workforce work together cohesively to deliver quality care for a changing population. With its strong fiscal position, high per capita income, and strategic vision for healthcare advancement, Qatar is also becoming an increasingly attractive destination for international healthcare companies, investors, and research institutions. © Dar Al Sharq Press, Printing and Distribution. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
ArabGT
18-06-2025
- Business
- ArabGT
How Regional Conflicts Are Reshaping Global Oil Prices
As tensions escalate between two regional powers in the Middle East, energy security returns to the forefront, with growing concerns over the direct impact on global oil supply stability. The conflict between Iran and the occupying state has moved beyond mere military posturing, evolving into an international state of watchfulness amid rising fears of a shock to global markets. In this context, BMI – a division of Fitch Solutions – offers a deep analysis of the oil price outlook, based on daily-updated data and long-term models tracking geopolitical and economic variables influencing the market. The company's latest report is considered one of the most comprehensive assessments of how this conflict could shape the global energy landscape, especially through a set of divergent scenarios for oil price trajectories. Possible Scenarios and Oil Prices BMI outlines five scenarios in which the price of Brent crude could range between $60 and $150 per barrel, depending on the severity of the escalation: Scenario 1 – Limited Retaliation with Diplomatic Openings: A limited Iranian response combined with openness to a U.S.-brokered nuclear deal could bring prices down to $60–65 per barrel. Scenario 2 – Nuclear Program Stalls without Agreement: A weakened Iranian nuclear program without a new deal would likely keep prices between $60–70 per barrel. Scenario 3 – Controlled Escalation Followed by De-escalation: A cycle of mutual strikes with Israel followed by gradual de-escalation would maintain prices in the range of $60–80 per barrel. Scenario 4 – Military Confrontation Involving the U.S.: Escalation against Israel that draws in the United States militarily could drive prices up to $75–100 per barrel. Scenario 5 – Full-scale Conflict and Hormuz Disruption: A direct and extensive clash between Iran and the U.S., particularly involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, may push prices to $100–150 per barrel. Estimates suggest that an open conflict could trigger significant economic disruptions, including a slowdown in global growth and a surge in inflation. Conversely, a partial de-escalation could help stabilize prices without major shocks. Despite the various scenarios, BMI leans toward a forecast of limited, non-expansive hostilities, allowing for greater international flexibility in managing the crisis and giving involved parties space to reassess their strategic decisions before crossing into broader conflict. The report also points to obstacles facing a strong Iranian response, largely due to military and political constraints. Additionally, regional players like Hezbollah and the Houthis are not expected to play a significant role at this stage, reducing the likelihood of a wider escalation. On the diplomatic front, there remains a possibility that Iran could be compelled to return to nuclear negotiations, which could lead to a lift in sanctions and an increase in its oil exports. However, BMI views this scenario as unlikely in the near term due to internal political pressures that would make such a concession difficult for Tehran. Overall, oil prices and energy markets remain vulnerable to volatility amid a highly unstable political environment, with oil acting as a sensitive barometer reflecting every field development or diplomatic signal. As investors continue to monitor the situation closely, the future of oil prices hinges on the next move in the conflict.
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
China's rare earth clampdown strains global auto production
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, reports mounting strain across the global automotive industry amid new rare earth export restrictions introduced by Mainland China. Analysts at BMI caution that a recently implemented licensing system has significantly delayed magnet shipments, critical components in electric vehicle (EV) motors and modern vehicle subsystems, raising the risk of production halts across major automakers. The restrictions come in the wake of increased US tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting the EU to urge Beijing to ease its controls. According to BMI, the delays threaten to derail their near-term forecasts for global vehicle production, which currently predict a 2.3% rise in 2025 to 95.8 million units following a slight contraction in 2024. 'The new bottlenecks in rare earth magnet supply pose significant downside risks to global vehicle output,' BMI analysts warn, pointing to recent disruptions at Ford, Suzuki, and broader warnings from Germany's VDA industry group. EV production is expected to be hit especially hard, given its heavier reliance on these magnets compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Europe's auto sector is particularly vulnerable, BMI notes, as 98% of its rare earth magnets are imported from China, which holds 90% of global processing capacity. While the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act aims to bolster domestic capacity, BMI emphasises that European processing lacks both cost competitiveness and scale, making the bloc heavily dependent on Chinese suppliers. As the crisis unfolds, BMI anticipates shifts in sourcing strategies, including potential relocations of production to China despite tariff implications, and a rollback of certain non-essential vehicle features to reduce reliance on rare earths. Some automakers may even consider reverting to older EV motor designs that require fewer critical minerals. BMI concludes that the current disruption underscores the fragility of automotive supply chains in the face of strategic material bottlenecks, particularly as global electrification efforts intensify. "China's rare earth clampdown strains global auto production" was originally created and published by Motor Finance Online, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Sign in to access your portfolio
Zawya
09-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Resilient non-oil sectors to keep Qatar's economy afloat in 2025
Doha, Qatar: Qatar's economy is expected to remain on stable footing in 2025, buoyed by steady growth in non-hydrocarbon sectors and a slight recovery in hydrocarbon output, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Solutions. While global economic uncertainty and softening energy prices have led to a downward revision in the country's growth forecast from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent, Fitch reports that Qatar's diversified growth drivers and long-term energy export contracts will shield it from more severe global shocks. Fitch revised Qatar's real GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.6 percent, citing lower global energy prices and increased investor caution amid elevated international uncertainty. The updated figure is a slight reduction from the previously expected 2.9 percent but still represents a modest improvement over 2024's estimated 2.4 percent growth. Notably, Fitch remains more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which forecasts 2.4 percent growth for a second consecutive year. Analysts emphasises that the direct impact of recent US tariffs on Qatar will be minimal. Exports to the United States comprise just 1.5 percent of Qatar's total exports and less than 1 percent of GDP. Moreover, most of these exports are exempt from tariffs, resulting in an effective rate of just 6.4 percent well below the rates faced by many other MENA economies. 'We believe Qatar is largely insulated from weaker growth in key trading partners such as China, thanks to its reliance on long-term hydrocarbon export contracts,' Fitch analysts noted. This export model has proven resilient, limiting exposure to short-term global demand shocks. Instead, the downward revision stems primarily from anticipated softness in non-hydrocarbon sectors, particularly construction and real estate. Weaker energy revenues are expected to dampen both public and private investment, as lower oil and gas prices prompt a more cautious approach from investors. As a result, Fitch lowered its forecast for non-hydrocarbon growth from 3.8 percent to 3.4 percent. However, not all sectors are slowing. Manufacturing is projected to rebound in 2025 following a 2.2 percent contraction in 2024, and the financial sector is set to benefit from expected interest rate cuts. Fitch also pointed to signs of resilience in household consumption, supported by slowing inflation, rising wages, and population growth. 'Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from early 2025 shows stronger non-hydrocarbon activity compared to Q1 2024, especially in manufacturing, services, and retail,' the report stated. 'This reinforces our view that these sectors will continue to support overall economic growth.' On the hydrocarbon side, growth is forecast to rise slightly from 0.6 percent in 2024 to 0.9 percent in 2025, supported by a 1.6 percent rebound in oil and gas output. The sector is expected to gain further momentum in 2026, with output projected to jump 5.2 percent as capacity expansions from the North Field come online. The data also shows that Qatar's external accounts remain strong. Although the current account surplus is expected to narrow from 17.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 10 percent in 2025 due to lower hydrocarbon revenues, the surplus is still large enough to maintain confidence in the riyal's US dollar peg. In terms of monetary policy, Fitch forecasts that the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) will follow the US Federal Reserve in easing rates, but at a slightly more aggressive pace. The QCB is expected to cut policy rates by 120 basis points starting in July 2025, compared to 100 basis points anticipated by the Fed. Since October 2024, QCB rate cuts have consistently outpaced the Fed's by 5 basis points per move. Despite the challenges, Fitch Solutions underscores Qatar's relative economic resilience in the region. The report added, 'Strong fundamentals, long-term contracts in hydrocarbons, and targeted government spending will continue to provide a floor under growth.' © Dar Al Sharq Press, Printing and Distribution. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Bloomberg
04-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bangladesh Taka Will Extend Slide on Election, Tariffs, BMI Says
The Bangladesh taka is set to extend this year's decline due to potential political instability in the South Asian country and the increase in US tariffs, according to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. The currency is forecast to average 125 per dollar over the year as a whole, said Sayaka Shiba, senior country risk analyst at the research firm in Singapore. That compares to an average of 115.35 during 2024 and Tuesday's close of 121.86, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
