Latest news with #Fleitz
Japan Forward
04-07-2025
- Politics
- Japan Forward
Fred Fleitz on Iran, North Korea, and the Changing Security Landscape
As tensions rise in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, few voices are as well-positioned to offer insights as Fred Fleitz. A former CIA analyst and chief of staff to the Donald Trump administration's National Security Council, Fleitz now serves as vice chair of the America First Policy Institute's Center for American Security. During his recent visit to Tokyo, Fleitz sat down with JAPAN Forward to share his perspective on United States military strategy, Iran, North Korean provocations, and what Japan is doing to meet the demands of a shifting global order. In a wide-ranging conversation, Fleitz discussed the Trump administration's recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the intelligence coup behind Israel's precision strikes, and the fragility of US-China deterrence. He also touched on Japan's growing responsibilities as a security partner. Whether on diplomacy with Pyongyang or debates over defense spending in Tokyo, Fleitz laid out a blunt but pragmatic assessment of the challenges ahead. Following a decisive US airstrike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and a subsequent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Fleitz emphasized that options for progress through diplomacy had been exhausted before taking military action. "Trump gave Iran sixty days to negotiate in good faith. When that failed, he extended another two weeks. But Iran refused to abandon its uranium enrichment, which is clearly linked to weapons development," Fleitz said. The strike, he argued, showcased Trump's willingness to use precision and force when necessary, sending a message not only to Iran but also to adversaries like China and Russia. Fleitz maintained that the ultimate goal was a peaceful resolution, but he expressed skepticism about the Iranian regime's willingness to negotiate in good faith. "This government is unlikely to step down or reform without significant external pressure," he noted. However, he pointed out that diminished Iranian influence could revive stalled regional diplomacy, particularly to broaden the Abraham Accords and efforts to stabilize Gaza. Fred Fleitz, Vice Chairman of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), responds to an interview with JAPAN Forward. July 27, Chiyoda Ward, Tokyo. Asked about Israel's earlier precision attacks on Iran, Fleitz credited the Mossad for an intelligence operation of exceptional sophistication. "Mossad had agents inside Iran feeding precise human intelligence. They recruited defectors from the Iranian government and military, even setting up drone bases inside Iran," he explained. For example: "They sent fake messages to lure generals to targeted locations. The Iranian regime didn't even know it was happening. That's both a triumph for Israeli intelligence and a massive failure for Iran." According to Fleitz, the most consequential moment came when Iran fired missiles directly at Israel. That act of retaliation allowed Israel to assess and expose Iran's underperforming air defenses. "They had Russian-made systems that either didn't work or weren't deployed in sufficient numbers. Israel figured out how to neutralize them. Without that attack, they [the Israelis] wouldn't have known," he said. Japan imports roughly 80% of its oil from the Middle East, and Fleitz acknowledged Tokyo's delicate position. While Japan neither endorsed nor condemned the US strike, it called for de-escalation. "Japan wants peace in the region, understandably. But Iran may not see Japan as a neutral player due to its close alliance with the US. Still, if there's any chance Japan can help defuse tensions, it should try," he said. On the question of whether Japan should dispatch its Self-Defense Forces to the Strait of Hormuz, Fleitz was cautious. "I don't think that will be necessary. China has advised Iran not to escalate, and Iran doesn't want to jeopardize that relationship. I don't believe the Strait will be closed," he added. Turning to North Korea, Fleitz warned that Pyongyang's arsenal is already formidable and growing. "They likely have 40 to 80 nuclear weapons and solid-fueled ICBMs that can launch quickly. That's a serious threat to US national security." He expressed hope that Trump would pursue another summit with Kim Jong Un. "Trump is personally invested in resolving the abductee issue, especially after his conversations with Prime Minister (Shinzo) Abe. That will absolutely be part of any renewed talks," Fleitz affirmed. However, he also noted new complications: "North Korea resumed missile testing after perceiving US weakness under (Joe) Biden. They've grown closer to Russia, receiving satellite tech and cheap energy in exchange for weapons and possibly troops in Ukraine." Fleitz was particularly concerned about battlefield experience being gained by North Korean soldiers in Ukraine. "They're dying in large numbers, but also learning modern warfare tactics, including drone warfare. That's dangerous for global stability," he said. In conversation with Fred Fleitz (right). June 27 (©JAPAN Forward) Asked whether Japan is doing enough to deter regional threats, Fleitz urged greater defense spending and capability development. "Trump supports alliances, but he expects allies to carry their weight. Japanese officials often respond that they want to spend more, but face backlogs in US weapons deliveries. That's a fair complaint," Fleitz noted. "Japan should both buy American and increase its own defense production." He dismissed concerns that US global commitments would weaken its posture in Asia. "There's a view that we can't support Ukraine and deter China at the same time. I don't buy that. A global power like the US has to do both," he insisted. Still, he acknowledged that many Trump advisors view China as the number one threat, and that resource prioritization debates will continue. Emphasizing that he is not an economist, Fleitz briefly addressed the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy. This is an issue of considerable concern in Japan. "Trump wants fair trade, and that includes eliminating structural imbalances and non-tariff barriers," Fleitz said. "Whatever the friction, he values the US-Japan relationship deeply. This is a minor dispute between friends." Fleitz concluded by reaffirming Trump's hard stance on Iran's nuclear ambitions. "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was the worst deal ever. It allowed enrichment and had weak verification. Under Trump, any new deal would prohibit both uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing. No exceptions." Author: Daniel Manning
Korea Herald
03-04-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
Tariffs on Korea 'opening salvo,' not endgame: Trump's ex-aide
President Donald Trump's newly announced reciprocal tariffs on South Korean imports are an 'opening bid' for broader trade negotiations — not an outcome or a policy set in stone, former Trump national security aide Fred Fleitz said Thursday. 'I will tell you that I think this is the opening salvo in negotiations, and that this is something that will be negotiated and altered over time,' Fred Fleitz, former Chief of Staff of the National Security Council under Trump's first term said during the 'Trump 2.0 and Security in East Asia' forum hosted by the Sejong Institute in Seoul. 'But it does reflect Trump's position that trade can't just be free — it has to be fair. And he does think America has been taken advantage of by many nations. He's trying to settle a score.' Fleitz reiterated that 'Trump thinks tariffs are a useful tool to make trade fair. That's his position.' Fleitz's comments came after Trump announced Wednesday plans to impose a 26 percent 'reciprocal' tariff on South Korean imports, along with a minimum 'baseline' tariff on all goods entering the US. The 10 percent baseline tariff and the higher reciprocal rate are set to take effect on April 5 and April 9, respectively. 'Now I don't think this is a precarious situation — I think it's an unprecedented situation.' Fleitz, who currently serves as vice chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute, predicted that 'South Korea will do very well in those negotiations,' expressing a positive outlook for trade talks between the two allies. 'There will be such a fight with Europe that it will leave an opening for South Korea to strike some very important deals for your economy, for your security, and for global security,' Fleitz said. 'I hope your (the Korean) government will see it that way. I know you don't welcome these tariffs, but I still think they can be negotiated — and that there are other opportunities that can be pursued.' Fleitz called for South Korea to take the initiative, calling on Seoul to pursue strategic agreements that could provide both countries' security and mutual economic benefits in the course of trade negotiations. 'Trump's a dealmaker. He wants you to make him a deal. That's what I would say to that.' Fleitz specifically cited Korea-US cooperation in shipbuilding and energy as strategic opportunities. With China's naval expansion accelerating, the US is in urgent need of South Korea's assistance to build naval vessels, he said. Fleitz also pointed to the significance of the proposed Alaska LNG pipeline — a Trump-backed investment proposal for the production and export of Alaskan natural gas — that could reduce delivery time to South Korea and enable it to reduce its reliance on imports of energy from Russia and the unstable Persian Gulf. Trump has wanted Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to join the undertaking, while Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy wraps up an Asia trip between March 19 and 30, looking for investors and final buyers. 'Build this pipeline. Build this energy relationship with the United States. It will score a lot of points with President Trump, but frankly, it's the right thing to do for South Korea,' Fleitz said. 'This is a win-win proposal.' Addressing the forum, South Korea's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Chung Byung-won, also addressed the issue of US reciprocal tariffs, saying, 'We will do everything we can going forward to develop a win-win formula — one that minimizes the negative impact on us while offering areas where we can contribute to the US.'
