Latest news with #Fourie
The Citizen
3 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Are you employed if you work an hour a week? Stats SA says yes
The unemployment rate depends on your definition of employment … It's complicated: A single hour of paid work the week prior to being interviewed by Stats SA counts as 'being employed' – and being 'employed' could put a social grant at risk. Picture: Adobe Stock It happens from time to time that someone questions the integrity of the survey methods and accuracy of the figures produced by Statistics SA. The result is always the same – the head of Stats SA comes out all guns blazing to prove the statistical validity of his team's work. The most recent debate around Stats SA's figures erupted when Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie remarked that the unemployment rate in South Africa could be as low as 10%. Stats SA sticks to its estimate of an official unemployment rate of nearly 32.9% – and the expanded unemployment rate of 43.1%. Fourie argues that Stats SA does not count everyone who is working in the informal sector. His view is probably influenced by the fact that Capitec has 24 million clients. He noted that nearly three million of Capitec's clients earn an income without formal employment, and more than one million use their bank accounts to operate a small business. Fourie says the data suggests that some four million people are earning an income in the informal sector. In addition, the latest figures from the different banks in SA show that Standard Bank has around 12 million local clients, Absa has 12.7 million, FNB has 8.6 million, and Nedbank has 7.6 million. TymeBank states that it has 10 million clients. The total comes to nearly 75 million. It raises the question of why anybody would need a bank account – and apparently multiple accounts at more than one bank – if they don't have money or don't earn money somehow. Perhaps these figures support Fourie's argument. ALSO READ: Is South Africa's unemployment rate really only 10%? Not so, says Stats SA head But the Capitec CEO received more criticism than support. Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke issued a statement saying that Stats SA does measure the informal sector. 'The informal economy is not ignored,' says Maluleke. 'Stats SA produces several statistical products that measure this sector, including the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) and the Survey of Employers and the Self-Employed. The informal sector is measured, tracked and reported on consistently. Stats SA follows the guidelines set by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) for defining the informal sector, which is characterised primarily by the registration status and size of enterprises or businesses. 'Our methods stand open to rigorous examination, inviting scrutiny to ensure integrity and trustworthiness. 'The data we produce is publicly accessible, fostering a culture of openness,' he adds. ALSO READ: Minister agrees unemployment statistics should include work in informal sector 'Our concepts, definitions and classifications are meticulously crafted, guided by the highest global standards and best practices. We take pride in our commitment to transparency, clearly articulating what we measure, and the methods employed to derive our insights.' Maluleke appeared on national television to assure people that the statistics are accurate. He took Fourie on: 'If he says unemployment is sitting at 10%, it means 10% of 25 million, we'd have 2.5 million people who are unemployed in South Africa and then it means that we have 22.5 million people who are employed. The Sars [South African Revenue Service], from personal income tax doesn't even have such numbers for starters.' He says it is incorrect and misleading to suggest that Stats SA somehow 'misses' those who are employed in the informal sector. The latest QLFS for the first quarter of 2025 estimates the working age population at 41.7 million of which slightly more than 25 million are considered to be in the labour force. The rest of the people are not working and not looking for work, including those still at school or studying, in jail or those who have a (wealthy and generous) spouse or family to provide for them. Around 16.8 million are classified as employed, including 3.3 million in the informal sector and more than one million in private households (domestic workers and gardeners). That leaves 8.3 million unemployed and looking for work. There are another nearly 3.5 million people who are classified as discouraged workseekers. The Stats SA report defines a discouraged workseeker as 'a person who was not employed during the reference period, wanted to work, was available to work or to start a business, but did not take active steps to find work during the last four weeks' preceding the date of the survey. ALSO READ: Unemployment underscored by weak economic activity – 1 in 3 unemployed in SA The employed, by gender and hours of work Source: Stats SA How Stats SA gets its data Stats SA says its sampling method is statistically correct and representative. The QLFS surveys households directly and collects information from approximately 30 000 dwelling units. It collects data on the labour market activities of all individuals aged 15 years and above in the selected dwellings. Desiree Manamela, chief director of labour statistics at Stats SA, says data collectors visit the selected dwelling units once every three months and interview all the people residing in the dwelling. 'There can be multiple households within a dwelling unit. Everybody in those households will be interviewed,' she says. 'The survey is structured in such a way that we don't simply ask people whether they are employed or unemployed. There is a series of questions that we ask people within households and then we analyse the answers based on international standards to classify them according to different labour force statuses – meaning individuals are classified into three mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories following ILO hierarchy. 'We have employed persons, we have unemployed persons, and we have people that we call inactive. These three labour market statuses are supposed to sum up to the working age population,' she says. 'Employment takes priority over unemployment, and unemployment takes priority over inactivity. The first status that we derive is employment. 'We first want to know, of the people who are in the working age population, how many are employed. Then, once you have classified the people that are employed, we move on to the next status, which is unemployment. Now we ask people questions where we are going to classify them into the unemployed or the inactive. Unemployment will take priority over inactivity.' ALSO READ: 'Government initiatives alone can't address SA's unemployment rate' Odd jobs regarded as employment It is quite a lengthy questionnaire that collects a lot of data. One should keep in mind, though, that the questionnaire has been designed to ensure that, based on individual responses, respondents are only asked questions that are relevant to them. Questions are arranged in six sections totalling approximately 30 pages. The questionnaire starts by identifying the respondents and covers basic aspects such as age, population group, sex, marital status, and education. The questions on employment details are asked of all persons aged 15 years and above who indicated that they did work for pay or profit – even if a person worked only for an hour during the week preceding the interview – or if they were temporarily absent. Odd jobs for payment and even unpaid work in a household business is regarded as employment. Stats SA asks about the type of work, main tasks at work, working hours, type of business, type of products produced, income, and participation in public work programmes. ALSO READ: Economy sheds jobs again in first quarter, unemployment worse than year ago Time-related underemployment The QLFS collects data on how many people worked and for how many hours. A single hour of paid work during the past week classifies a person as employed. Some employed persons may report that they would like to work additional hours if the extra hours are paid. This information assists in deriving persons in time-related underemployment. The QLFS report for the first quarter of 2025 discloses that of the 16.8 million employed persons, only 9.4 million work a standard work week of 40 to 45 hours. Approximately 518 000 'employed' persons worked less than 15 hours a week. Stats SA measures this time-related underemployment by the more than 781 000 workers who said that they would like to work more hours for additional pay. We asked Manamela for a simple explanation of these statistics to confirm the information. 'We don't say a person who is working 40 hours a week is employed and somebody who is working only 20 hours is half-employed. You are either employed, unemployed or inactive; and for those employed, if they work less than 35 hours a week and are available and want to work more hours, then they are regarded as underemployed,' she says. These statistics prove Fourie wrong. If anything, most people may actually think that Stats SA is underestimating unemployment. ALSO READ: SA youth not unemployed, rather under-employed People lie or leave out information There is also the possibility that the respondents in the survey are lying to the data collectors when asked whether they are employed. There are many reasons to lie, including those among the 18 million social grant beneficiaries who also work a day or two per week. Evading income tax is another reason to lie. And criminals wouldn't be honest. Robbery, hijacking, drug dealing, cigarette smuggling, rhino poaching, investment scams, and prostitution generate an income, but these 'self-employed workers' won't reveal their employment status. They simply bank the cash quietly. This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.
New Paper
4 days ago
- Sport
- New Paper
June 29 South Africa (Scottsville) form analysis
Race 1 (1,100m) Watch the betting on the well-bred Dean Kannemeyer newcomer (1) PRINCESS OF GAUL. (5) FLYING SOUTH has improved with every run for Glen Kotzen and looks primed. (2) WHAT A PASSION was fancied on debut and can improve. (4) THIRD WINTER raced very green on debut on the Poly for Kotzen, and is likely to improve. Race 2 (1,100m) (6) CHAPBOOK has shown up well in both starts and with Richard Fourie up, looks the part. (8) GRAND FORCE was a close-up third on the Poly last outing. He has run well on this course. (4) BOARDWALK BREEZE showed good pace before tiring the last bit. He has 100m less to travel and can go all the way. (10) BOMBER STREAM is a struggling maiden but has shown some improvement in blinkers at his last two on this course. Race 3 (1,200m) (7) SOHO STAR was narrowly beaten at his last two. Go close. Craig Zackey does duty on (4) COLD SHINE because stable jockey Callan Murray would have been hard-pressed to ride 54.5kg. First-time blinkers help. (5) LICENCE TO THRILL is seldom far back but is 1.5kg worse off with Soho Star on last meetings. (9) VIHAAN'S WEB beat Soho Star last time, but is on 4kg worse terms. Place claims still strong. Race 4 (1,200m) (1) ABADDON drops in class with a big weight but gets 4kg relief. (4) MAR DEL PLATA was touched off with first-time blinkers last run. He has been consistent and is due a change of fortune. (8) GORGEOUS GUY likes this trip. Can be competitive again. (13) VELDSKOEN was not far back on debut and had steady Highveld form. Race 5 (1,400m) (1) SOLDIER BOY got a hefty rating for his debut win, but he gets 4kg off his back. (6) BEACH PALACE has run well for this apprentice and has steady form over course and distance. (11) LAKE COMO has come good. Goes well over course and distance but is drawn the widest. (3) SAIL TO THE MOON can get involved in the finish. Race 6 (1,400m) (9) CAPTAIN'S PRIDE takes on older runners but was not far back first-up in a handicap. (2) NELLIE MELBA showed up well over the trip on Poly last run. She appears to be coming to hand. (1) COPACABANA has smart recent Poly form but does go on the turf. She has the best of the draws. (4) NOODSBERG has run two fair races on Poly. Will come on. Race 7 (1,600m) (3) SONIC JET started at long odds behind the smart Green Sapphire last time. Though she carries a big weight, she does have a touch of class. (8) ONE SMART COOKIE is up in class with a wide draw, but Fourie stays on and she can follow up. (2) ICE RAIN has a better draw and is from an in-form stable. She went up six points in the handicap after her last win. (5) SAFE AND SOUND found her last run too far and she should do better this time around. Race 8 (1,600m) (2) SKYTRIX seems to resent the Poly. Failed narrowly over course and distance three runs back. Can bounce back from good draw. (1) RUGGER LOVER steps up in trip from a good draw. She has consistent sprint form but Fourie is back in the irons. (9) GREENHOUSE has gone close over course and distance, beaten by One Smart Cookie. (11) WEST SIDE STORY made no show on the Poly last run but had steady form before that. Race 9 (1,600m) (1) TERMINATOR is long overdue after three runner-up finishes over course and distance. He has the best of the draws. (10) WHITE SEAHORSE has drawn a bit wide but has raced well since breaking his maiden. He gets a 4kg relief this time. (13) EL REY VIENE is overdue a change of luck. He has drawn wide but should be competitive. (2) CORRUPT is down in class and was a beaten favourite last run in first-time blinkers. Better run expected from a plum draw.
IOL News
20-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
The ethical blind spots in SA's unemployment stats
South Africa's high unemployment also stands out globally. The writer says South Africa's metrics function as biopolitical instruments that perpetuate apartheid-era exclusion by rendering Black economic agency statistically non-existent. Image: File THIS opinion piece responds to former Statistician-General Pali Lehohla's article Debating the Labour Force Survey – A Response to Fourie's Critique. It serves as a rebuttal to his critique of my earlier article, Why Capitec's CEO Is Forcing SA to Rethink Its Unemployment Narrative, in which I argued that South Africa's unemployment figures fail to reflect the lived economic realities of the majority Black population. Lehohla claims that my article has 'amplified the debate' and insists on setting the record straight before it spirals into misinformation and speculation. However, my article did not reject StatsSA data outright. Instead, I argued that South Africa's high unemployment statistics are shaped by a biopolitical statistical system that invisibly erases informal economic activity and Black labour. This is largely due to restrictive measurement methodologies and the active suppression of the informal sector, unlike in other developing countries. I proposed the adoption of hybrid metrics and structural reforms to more accurately capture and support this vital, yet uncounted, segment of the economy. My stance aligns with UCT economist Haroon Bhorat, who engages constructively with Fourie's arguments rather than dismissing them entirely. Lehohla, however, dismisses Fourie's estimate of a 10% unemployment rate — based on informal economic activity — as 'abracadabra', 'lying', and the rant of a 'random businessman who profits from Black communities'. His anger masks a deeper crisis: South Africa's economic measurement system, though methodologically sound, is philosophically ill-equipped to account for the informal, digital, and survivalist nature of the majority-Black workforce. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ Lehohla defends StatsSA's unemployment figures based on their adherence to International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards and the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). Yet, I argue that this technical rigour obscures vast swaths of economic activity. For instance, a township hairdresser or street vendor without formal records becomes statistically invisible. This creates a profound ethical issue: stark racial disparities in unemployment, with Black South Africans facing an expanded unemployment rate of 40%, compared to just 7% for white South Africans. South Africa's high unemployment also stands out globally. Countries like Mexico (55% informal, 4.5% unemployment) and Nigeria (85% informal, 3.34% unemployment) include self-reported informal work in their statistics. In contrast, South Africa's metrics function as biopolitical instruments that perpetuate apartheid-era exclusion by rendering Black economic agency statistically non-existent. Bhorat notes that UCT's Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU) consistently shows South Africa having one of the highest unemployment rates globally (33.6%), but also one of the lowest informality rates (about 16.3%). He highlights how most emerging economies address unemployment not by creating more formal jobs, but by allowing informal work to flourish. DPRU research further suggests that South Africa's unusually high unemployment is not primarily due to poor job growth or strict labour laws, but because our economy actively suppresses the informal sector. My advice to DPRU is not to shy away from confronting the moral failures or societal consequences that their data may obscure. Lehohla's refusal to engage meaningfully illustrates the difficulty of escaping the grip of orthodox economics and its limitations. Orthodox economics treats the economy — and by extension, social life — as a predictable machine operating in equilibrium. When official statistics diverge from lived experiences, the social contract built on citizens sharing data begins to erode, revealing a deep crisis within the discipline of economics. Unlike Adam Smith — who grounded market value in ethics and social relations in The Theory of Moral Sentiments — modern economics has severed this moral root, prioritising abstract mathematical models over real-world complexity. Joseph Stiglitz warns that GDP-centric metrics obscure true well-being. Persistent youth unemployment amidst trillions of rands in township transactions is not merely an error — it reflects a flawed measurement paradigm. Kenneth Boulding adds that modern economics builds on classical works like The Wealth of Nations and Das Kapital, which contain unrealised 'evolutionary potential' absent in contemporary models. He cautions that excluding economic history from graduate education produces 'idiots savant' — technically proficient economists who lack institutional understanding and historical insight. A balanced synthesis of modern analytical tools and classical wisdom can help bridge this divide, fostering critical engagement with economics as both a technical and humanistic discipline. Lehohla's defence rests on rigid positivism — the belief in the 'holy' authority of statistical processes — yet this glosses over the ethical roots of economic thought. For Smith, wealth was defined by the ability to command others' labour — a social relationship, not a cold data point. Modern economics, however, has decoupled itself from these normative foundations. As Stiglitz points out, most metrics conceal inequality and human suffering, reducing development to arithmetic rather than justice. This philosophical drift is evident in South Africa: while StatsSA reports rising unemployment, Capitec Bank documents over R2 trillion in township transactions — a vibrant economic reality invisible to official instruments. This disconnect signals a deeper crisis in economics. Equilibrium models and optimisation problems eclipse historical nuance, cultural dynamics, and power relations. Boulding warned of this technocratic drift, describing modern economists as technicians fluent in calculus but blind to social texture. In a direct response to me, Lehohla stated: 'There is no legacy to protect on my part, Bhungane (my totem), nor language to polish. When a lie is told, there is no reason to give it a different word. It is simply a 'lie,' and when an argument does not make sense, it is called nonsense in the English language, and when nonsense is given wheels and wings to fly, it is called 'rubbish.' Those who wish to opine should do so from research rather than from a hailer.' While I may not use his hyperbolic or confrontational language, I am neither uninformed nor inexperienced in public discourse. I have an academic and policy track record that makes me far more than 'a hailer.' As many have rightly pointed out, shouting or using aggressive language does not strengthen an argument. We must allow space for multiple viewpoints to ensure inclusive policymaking around poverty, inequality, land reform, and unemployment. Finally, Lehohla attributes South Africa's unique unemployment situation to two key factors: agricultural activity tied to land ownership and high levels of economic concentration. He argues that these factors challenge simplistic international comparisons and emphasise the centrality of the land question in shaping employment outcomes. No. Lehohla is deliberately conflating issues to obscure the fact that his revered unemployment metrics miss the ethical forest for the numerical trees. Siyayibanga le economy! * Siyabonga Hadebe is an independent commentator based in Geneva on socio-economic, political and global matters. ** The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Sunday Independent, Independent Media, or IOL. 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New Paper
20-06-2025
- Sport
- New Paper
June 21 South Africa (Kenilworth) form analysis
Race 1 (1,400m) (1) STAR MAJOR has gone close in both starts and could get it right. (2) GOLD GIBOSKI should be in the shake-up after two crackers. (5) DIAMOND DAYS relished the step-up to this trip last time. Can go close from a fair draw. (9) NEW WORLD is knocking on the door and Richard Fourie retains the ride, with blinkers on. Race 2 (1,400m) (6) SPLASH OF COLOUR has Gavin Lerena up from a middle draw of six and having gone close last time over this course and distance, she should be in the shake-up. (1) LOVE HER MADLY has run some good races and should relish the step-up in trip. She should be right there from pole position. (2) GREEK HEIRESS is a well-bred filly by far away out of a decent Fort Wood mare and Craig Zackey rides from a plum draw. (7) ONCIDIUM has Fourie up from a tricky draw of seven but she could improve on her first start. Race 3 (1,000m) (1) OCTOBER STORM is very well bred being by Vercingetorix out of the top broodmare Miss October. He should go close on debut. (4) FLEUR DE VILLE went close last time over course and distance and he should be in the shake-up. (6) IKO IKO is knocking on the door and should also be right there. (7) DIGBY is in good form and could be involved in the finish. Race 4 (1,400m) (1) MEG'S LEGACY ran a fine race over course and distance last time and is now drawn in pole and should be right there. (2) TAYLOR'S VERSION also went close last time and from draw two should be in the shake up. (5) RED CORAL improved second time and should enjoy this further step-up in trip. (10) RED STATE has run two good races in succession over 1,200m and should relish the step-up in trip but does have a wide draw. Race 5 (1,950m) (2) ARIOVISTUS won easily last time in an open maiden. Starts off on a fair rating of 73 with Fourie up over an ideal course and trip. (3) KWITE A KING ran well last time over 2,200m and from a good draw, will also enjoy this trip. (4) AHEAD OF THE FACTS has won two of his last three over middle distances and should be in the shake-up from a fair draw. (5) WOOD WORLD has been in good form and with Lerena up for the third time in succession, he has a chance. Race 6 (1,500m) (3) ELECTROMAGNETISM has won her last two and on pedigree, should relish the step-up in trip. (6) UKUDUMA is a well-bred Vercingetorix out of dual Group 1 winner Thunder Dance. She should go close after a good debut win. (7) LOWVELD LILY won well second time out and should enjoy the step-up in trip. (2) SHE'S MY WORLD is well drawn and should be thereabouts. Race 7 (1,500m) (5) HAPPY VERSE should enjoy the step-up in trip here and looks the one to beat. (6) ROLAND GARROS has won his last two in fine fashion and should be in the shake-up. (3) VAPOUR TRAIL is a half-brother to One Stripe and should enjoy this trip and is a contender from a good draw. (2) DREAMWORLD has fine form and tries a step-up in trip from a good draw, although the jury is out on whether he will stay. Race 8 (1,600m) (2) LADY LOOK ALIKE is in hard-knocking form. From a good draw over a suitable trip, should go close. (5) MIRACULOUS is knocking hard too and might enjoy the step-up and trip. (6) KAMCHATKA ran well last time over 1,400m and will enjoy this trip, but does have a tricky draw. (1) PENTOLINA has pole position and can be right there if repeating penultimate start. Race 9 (1,200m) (3) RIKKITIKKITAVI beat a good sort last time and is the one to beat. (4) OCTOBER FEST is well bred and is coming to hand. (2) MARITZBURG MEMORY has the form to be a contender. (8) HOPE CHEST has ability and could bounce back. Race 10 (1,200m) (1) BECKY SHARP is knocking hard and could get it right. (4) SAINT BRIGID ran a cracker last time when stepped down to 1,400m and is interesting over a further step-down in trip. (3) EASY MONEY beat Becky Sharp last time and is only 1.5kg worse off for a 1.75 length beating, so might confirm the form. (7) IM THE BUZZ has the form to earn a cheque. Race 11 (1,000m) (1) MISS WORLD is well regarded and Fourie could make all the difference. (3) DEAN STREET has the ability and can never be ignored. (5) TANNERON won well last time and looks to be coming into her own. (6) ELUSIVE WINTER is consistent and should be right there.
The Citizen
19-06-2025
- The Citizen
Greenspark community marks Youth Day with powerful anti-drug campaign
The Greenspark community in Fochville took a firm stand against drug abuse on Youth Day, using the occasion to raise awareness and inspire change among local youth. March and sports unite youth against drugs Led by community activist Glen Fourie, the event began with a peaceful march from Greenspark Primary School to the local stadium. Once there, young people enjoyed a day of soccer and netball, promoting healthy alternatives to substance use. 'If you go to the police holding cells at Fochville, they are full of young people who stole to get money to buy drugs,' Fourie said. He emphasized the urgent need for intervention, especially in areas with limited recreational opportunities. Former addicts share their stories Community member Calvin Fourie, a recovering addict, shared his journey: 'I started using drugs because of peer pressure. I didn't know what I was getting myself into. Now, I feel sorry for the young users who have to sleep outside in the winter cold because of their choices.' Calvin is now clean and actively shares his experience to help guide others. Plans to build a safer, drug-free Greenspark Driven by concern and hope, residents are determined to change the narrative in Greenspark. Future plans include: Workshops to teach youth healthy coping strategies Collaboration with the South African Police Service (SAPS) and Departments of Health and Social Services Involvement of churches and local businesses The possible installation of boom gates at town entrances to curb criminal activity Broad support from community stakeholders The event received strong backing from various sectors. Traffic officers from Merafong City Local Municipality ensured safety during the march, and local churches and government departments pledged continued support. At Caxton, we employ humans to generate daily fresh news, not AI intervention. Happy reading!
