Latest news with #GDP
Times of Oman
an hour ago
- Business
- Times of Oman
Credit growth influenced by economic activity rather than surplus liquidity: Report
New Delhi: Credit growth in the economy is influenced more by overall economic activity than by the size of the liquidity surplus, according to a recent report by Standard Chartered, an international bank. The report noted that while a high liquidity surplus may provide some support to unsecured personal loan growth (excluding consumer durable loans), it does not automatically lead to broad-based credit growth. It stated, "Credit growth depends more on economic activity than the size of the liquidity surplus; however, unsecured personal loan growth (ex-consumer durables) could get a fillip on a large liquidity surplus". In fact, as the report mentioned that the credit growth excluding unsecured personal and consumer durable loans tends to slow during periods of excess liquidity. This trend suggested that the real demand for credit, which is closely linked to economic activity, is a more important driver than the availability or cost of funds. "Slower economic activity triggers action by the central bank to increase the liquidity surplus as a counter-cyclical measure," the report said. However, despite such efforts, overall credit (excluding unsecured personal and consumer durable loans) as a share of GDP has declined during past episodes of high liquidity surplus. For example, the report highlighted that during the period from December 2016 to September 2017, when liquidity surplus ranged between 2.6 per cent and 3.3 per cent of Net Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL), credit (excluding unsecured personal and consumer durable loans) as a percentage of GDP fell from 48.9 per cent to 46.2 per cent. This decline continued until mid-2019. Interestingly, unsecured personal loan growth (excluding consumer durables) has shown a strong uptrend over the last decade. Its size more than doubled to around 6 per cent of GDP. While this growth is largely driven by structural factors such as improved access to credit and the rise of digital lending, the report pointed out that its pace of expansion tends to increase during periods of high liquidity surplus. During March 2021 to March 2023, as per data shared by the report amid a large liquidity surplus and relaxed credit conditions, the share of unsecured personal loans in GDP rose at a faster pace than during previous similar episodes.
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Falls to 3-1/4 Year Low as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair
The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday fell by -0.54%, reaching a 3-1/4 year low. The dollar retreated following a Wall Street Journal report that said President Trump is considering accelerating the announcement of the next Fed Chair. The dollar remained lower on Thursday's US economic news of a downward revision in Q1 GDP and a wider-than-expected May trade deficit report, which was a negative factor for Q2 GDP. The dollar received underlying support from stronger-than-expected initial unemployment claims, core capital goods orders, and pending home sales reports. Also, hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin were supportive of the dollar when he said he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. Dollar Falls to 3-1/4 Year Low as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair Dollar Falls as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -7,000 to 236,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 243,000. However, weekly continuing claims rose +37,000 to a 3-1/2 year high of 1.974 million, above expectations of 1.950 million, signaling more people are staying out of work for longer. US Q1 GDP was revised lower to -0.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of no change at -0.2% as Q1 personal consumption was revised downward to +0.5% from +1.2%. The Q1 core PCE price index was revised higher to +3.5% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of unchanged at +3.4%. US May capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts rose +1.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and the largest increase in 4 months. The US May trade deficit of -$96.6 billion was wider than expectations of -$86.1 billion, a negative factor for Q2 GDP. US May pending home sales rose +1.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. Richmond Fed President Barkin said he expects tariffs will put upward pressure on prices, and with so much still uncertain, he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. The dollar retreated Thursday after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump may announce Fed Chair Powell's replacement as soon as September, an unusually early appointment. That reinforced expectations of a more dovish-leaning Fed, after Trump criticized Powell for holding interest rates steady. Because Powell's term expires in May 2026, announcing a new Fed chair far earlier than the traditional three-to-four-month transition period could allow the chair-in-waiting to influence expectations about the likely path for interest rates. An overly dovish Fed would likely produce higher inflation, which depreciates the value of the dollar. The markets are discounting a 25% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.43% and posted a 3-3/4 year high. The euro moved higher after the dollar fell on the report that President Trump may name Fed Chair Powell's successor as soon as September. The euro was undercut after the German Jun GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined. The German Jun GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -0.3 to -20.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to -19.2. Swaps are pricing in a 9% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) fell by -0.63%. The yen climbed to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar as the dollar tumbled on the Wall Street Journal report that President Trump would name a successor to Fed Chair Powell sooner than expected. Thursday's slide in the 10-year T-note yield to a 7-week low was also bearish for the dollar and bullish for the yen. August gold (GCQ25) on Thursday rose by +4.90 (+0.15%), and July silver (SIN25) rose by +0.481 (+1.33%). Precious metals closed higher on Thursday on the report that President Trump might announce his new Fed pick early, which could result in inflation and increased demand for precious metals as a store of value. The slump in the dollar index to a new 3-1/4 year low was also a bullish factor for precious metals. Silver prices had carryover support from Thursday's rally in copper prices to a 2-3/4 month high. Precious metals prices were undercut by reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks. Also, hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin weighed on gold prices when he said he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. In addition, reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East curbed safe-haven demand for precious metals as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold. Thursday's downward revision to US Q1 GDP was negative for industrial metals demand and was bearish for silver prices. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Times of Oman
12 hours ago
- Business
- Times of Oman
India records $13.5 billion current account surplus in Q4-FY25
Mumbai: India's current account recorded a surplus of $13.5 billion (or 1.3 per cent of GDP) in the January-March quarter of 2024-25 as compared with $4.6 billion (or 0.5 per cent of GDP) in the same quarter of 2023-24, RBI data showed Friday. Reportedly, the country's current account posted a surplus for the first time in four quarters. In the October-December quarter of 2024-25, the current account was in a deficit of USD 11.3 billion (1.1 per cent of GDP). Merchandise trade deficit, at USD 59.5 billion in Q4 2024-25, was higher than USD 52.0 billion in Q4 2023-24. However, it moderated from USD 79.3 billion in Q3 2024-25. Net services receipts increased to USD 53.3 billion in Q4 2024-25 from USD 42.7 billion a year ago. Services exports have risen on a year-on-year basis in major categories such as business services and computer services. Net outgo on the primary income account, primarily reflecting payments of investment income, moderated to USD 11.9 billion in Q4 2024-25 from USD 14.8 billion in Q4 2023-24. Personal transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, rose to USD 33.9 billion in Q4 2024-25 from USD 31.3 billion in Q4 2023-24. In the financial account, foreign direct investment (FDI) recorded a net inflow of USD 0.4 billion in Q4 2024-25 as compared to an inflow of USD 2.3 billion in the corresponding period of 2023-24. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) recorded a net outflow of USD 5.9 billion in Q4 2024-25 as against a net inflow of USD 11.4 billion in Q4 2023-24. In the entire year 2024-25, India's current account deficit, at USD 23.3 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) was lower than USD 26.0 billion (0.7 per cent of GDP) during 2023- 24, primarily due to "higher net invisibles receipts." Net invisibles receipts were higher during 2024-25 than a year ago on account of services and personal transfers, RBI said. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head - Research and Outreach, ICRA Limited, said, "While the current account balance expectedly reported a seasonal surplus in Q4 FY2025, the size of the same overshot our expectations, amid a surprise dip in primary income outflows in the quarter. This led to the unexpected narrowing in the CAD to 0.6 per cent of GDP in FY2025 from 0.7 per cent in FY2024." "Amid expectations of a widening in the merchandise trade deficit as well as a moderation in the services trade surplus in Q1 FY2026 vis-a-vis Q4 FY2025, we expect the current account to revert to a deficit in the ongoing quarter, printing at 1.3 per cent of GDP. We foresee India's current account deficit to average 1 per cent of GDP in FY2026, assuming an average crude oil price of USD 70/barrel for the fiscal, which is eminently manageable in spite of the prevailing global uncertainties," added Nayar. In another news, the Reserve Bank of India, in consultation with the State Governments/Union Territories (UTs), announced today that the quantum of total market borrowings by the State Governments/UTs for the quarter July - September 2025, is pegged to be Rs 2.86 lakh crore.
The Herald Scotland
15 hours ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Starmer is a charlatan – Labour should dump him for Rayner
Tony Blair was obsessed with his place in the history books; Gordon Brown with duty. Even David Cameron represented something: class privilege and entitlement. John Major was the 1950s made flesh. But what does Keir Starmer stand for? Britain is in the unfortunate position of having a leader with seemingly no beliefs whatsoever. He doesn't appear to be in politics for sheer venal greed and narcissism, but nor is he in politics for any higher purpose. He clearly has no principles, as he abandons every position he's ever held. Starmer has just committed Britain to spending 5% of GDP on defence in the face of Russian threats. But what values is he protecting? To protect a nation, you must invest it with some purpose, some beliefs, to justify the cost in blood and gold. I know what I – and most folk – would deem the values we seek to protect: fairness, freedom, decency, the right to dissent, standing up for the underdog. Aren't these the so-called 'British values' we were taught once underpinned this country? Read more from Neil Mackay: Does Starmer defend fairness? No. He was about to degrade Britain's disabled people until his own rebel MPs pulled him back from the brink. He proposed cruelty, not decency. Does Starmer protect freedom? No. He has decided to proscribe a protest group as a terrorist organisation. Palestine Action sprayed red paint on military aircraft after breaking into an RAF base. Should the activists be prosecuted? Yes. They may have been standing up for their beliefs, but they broke in and committed criminal damage. So yes, prosecute them. But to label them terrorists is dangerously authoritarian. You may not like what Palestine Action did, but what happens if the next protest group to go too far is fighting for something you believe in? Should your views be bracketed with terrorism? Indeed, proscribing Palestine Action forces us to look back into Starmer's past as we ask: 'what – if anything – does this man hold dear?' As a human rights lawyer, Starmer defended a protester arrested after cutting an RAF base fence while carrying a flammable substance. He argued the behaviour was legal as the protester was acting to prevent a wider crime: the Iraq War. Starmer also represented Lindis Percy, arrested over 500 times for breaking into and protesting outside air force bases. Lawyers defend clients whose actions they don't support – we know that. You cannot equate a lawyer's defence work with their own beliefs. However, it isn't quite so simple with Starmer. In 2020, when running for Labour's leadership, he featured Percy in a campaign video. She said: 'Keir defended me, and many others, to bring public scrutiny and awareness of the presence of US visiting forces so that we can live in a more peaceful and less secretive society.' So as a human rights lawyer, did he actually believe in the right to protest, or was he just doing whatever the job required? Was he merely, as now, holding office for the banal sake of holding office? Did he believe in the right to protest when he became leader, and then dump this belief – as he has dumped so many beliefs – when it was convenient? Would human rights lawyer Starmer believe in Palestine Action's right to protest? (Image: Palestine Action) Indeed, the word 'belief' seems inappropriate. Nobody simply abandons beliefs. You can, though, abandon a 'pose'. Indeed, the word 'belief' seems inappropriate. Nobody simply abandons beliefs. You can, though, abandon a 'pose'. Is Starmer simply governing as he imagines the right-wing press wishes him to govern? Is he a creature of the Daily Mail, forever trying to run ahead of headlines he fears? He's an arrogant man. That's clear. Labour rebels were simply 'noises off', he said. Until they weren't, of course, when he realised he faced defeat over his brutish disability cuts. It all fits with his abandonment of every principle Labour stands for: he hurts the poor and cossets the wealthy; he sucks up to power and tramples the weak. Until the rebels got him in a stranglehold, Starmer's welfare bill would have pushed 250,000 disabled people into poverty, along with 50,000 children. Even with the u-turn, he's created a two-tier system where those who become disabled in the future will be worse off than those disabled today. He plays a monstrous game with the lives of others. Sign up to Unspun and read Neil Mackay every Friday. In one month, Starmer u-turned three times: on the winter fuel payment, on holding an inquiry into grooming gangs, and now on disability benefits. Between taking over as Labour leader and becoming Prime Minister, Starmer u-turned 27 times, including on the combustible issue of trans rights. In 2022, he claimed to believe that 'transwomen are women'. Come April this year, that was no longer his belief. Starmer is a charlatan, a man without character, a cipher. He's either so weak or so amoral that he is unfit to hold office. There's still a long way to go before the next UK election. Labour has the time to dump this empty vessel, this dangerous shape-shifter, and choose a better leader who just might save them from ruin at the ballot box. Perhaps, Angela Rayner?
Business Standard
15 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
India will continue to grow robustly, even among major industrialized G7 countries: PHDCCI
An analysis conducted by PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry in a report on Population, Productivity, Partnership: Rethinking G7-India Collaboration highlights that India will continue to grow robustly, even among major industrialized G7 countries. Indias consistent real GDP growth makes it the key growth driver for the world economy. The transformative reforms including GST, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Act, Production Liked Incentive Scheme, growing digital infrastructure (Aadhaar, UPI) and Make in India, among others, is strengthening Indias ascendency in the World, said Mr Hemant Jain, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The objective of the report is to assess the Indias growth and trade dynamics among G7 economies. Secondly, to discuss the recent Honble PM visit to Canada for G7 Outreach Session. Thirdly, to examine the cooperation and collaboration potential between India and G7. With an average real GDP growth of more than 8% growth from 2021 to 2024, India has consistently outpaced all G7 members. IMFs 2025 projections indicate that India will maintain a growth trajectory above 6% (average) through 2029, supported by robust domestic demand, sound macroeconomic fundamentals, and its demographic dividend, he said. In terms of purchasing-power-parity (PPP) terms, Indias share in global GDP has surged from 7.0% in 2020 to 8.3% in 2024, and is anticipated to exceed 9% by 2029, he said. A crucial underlying factor is the demographic divergence between India and G7, said Mr. Jain. Indias working-age population (1564 years) is projected to increase in the coming years with over 68% of its population currently between 15-64 years. This demographic dividend supports labor supply expansion, boosts domestic consumption, and enhances the innovation ecosystem through a vibrant startup culture and rising tertiary education enrolment, said Mr. Jain. Further, Indias share of total population ages 65 and above constitutes less than 5% (2025). Conversely, G7 nations are confronting demographic headwinds as they their share is more than 10% highlighting rapidly ageing populations, shrinking labor pools, and rising old-age dependency ratios, said Mr. Jain. By 2030, this share is expected to double or more than double for of the G7 economies. This is likely to slow potential output, reduce consumer demand, and increase fiscal burdens related to pensions and healthcare, said Mr. Jain. Notably, Indias merchandise trade with G7 countries has surged by 61%, rising from USD 154 billion in FY 202021 to USD 248 billion in FY 202425, maintaining a steady trade surplus. This reflects Indias growing export competitiveness and indicated by commodity net export price index, bolstering its external sector resilience, he noted. Honble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, in his address at the Summit, underscored Indias leadership in clean energy transition, climate action, and digital innovation. Key global initiatives led by Indiathe International Solar Alliance, Mission LiFE, and the Global Biofuels Allianceare shaping a greener, more inclusive world, said PHDCCI. In technology and digital governance space, India highlighted its commitment to a human-centric and ethical approach to AI, showcasing initiatives like BHASHINI and Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) as global models. Honble Prime Minister urged for global cooperation on AI governance, resilient tech supply chains, and curbing the misuse of emerging technologies, said PHDCCI. Last but not the least, a strategic collaboration in areas including clean and renewable energy, climate finance, Digital Public Infrastructure, Trade & Supply Chain Resilience, Maritime & Indo-Pacific Security and Healthcare & Pharma, will drive a mutually beneficial growth trajectory, said the study.
