Latest news with #GLOFs
Daily Mail
4 days ago
- Climate
- Daily Mail
How an outburst flood could wash out vulnerable American communities
As the US continues to deal with a summer full of devastating flash floods, scientists warn that something even worse could soon wash out vulnerable American communities. Flooded subway tunnels in New York City and deadly overflowing rivers in the Texas Hill Country were powerful examples of how destructive water can quickly become during extreme weather events. But scientists say an 'outburst flood' could deliver more destruction than 90 of the most powerful nuclear bombs in history. Officially known as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), they're becoming increasingly common due to climate change , and millions of people, including thousands in the US, are in harm's way. GLOFs are not new, but the scale and frequency are rising fast. At the end of the last Ice Age, roughly 15,000 years ago, the Missoula Floods swept across the American Northwest, triggered by massive glacial lakes bursting through ice dams. This catastrophic event all started with a remote glacial lake quietly growing in size, swelling more than twelvefold as melting ice relentlessly fed it. However, after several decades, the water became too much. With immense pressure building behind a ridge, the lake exploded, unleashing a wall of water up to 60ft that roared down a valley, obliterating everything in its path. Each of the 400 individual floods during this event unleashed the energy of 4,500 megatons of TNT, nearly 100 times the force of the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, Soviet Russia's 'Tsar Bomba.' Water roared at speeds of 65 miles per hour, carrying boulders the size of cars, reshaping the landscape and carving vast canyons that are still visible today. In 2023, India's Sikkim region suffered the deadliest GLOF in recent memory, when a glacial lake burst following years of steady melt, killing dozens and leaving hundreds homeless. Now, attention is turning to the US, where three states - Alaska, Washington and Wyoming - are facing growing threats. One Alaskan lake, ominously named [Death] Basin, has burst two years in a row, releasing a staggering 14.6billion gallons of water in each event. That's the equivalent of 22,000 Olympic swimming pools flooding downtown Juneau, turning streets into rivers and forcing residents to flee with pets in carriers. Floods beneath the basin have been recorded since 2011, but researchers are now alarmed at the rapid acceleration. A recent study found 106 out of 120 glacier-dammed lakes in Alaska have drained at least once since 1985, and new lakes are forming as the glaciers retreat. 'The danger is growing,' scientists warned. 'As ice-free basins fill with water, they eventually reach a breaking point. 'Pressure builds until the glacier can't hold, and the result is a sudden, violent flood downstream.' These floods, they say, are often unpredictable and have already caused significant loss of life and infrastructure worldwide. Washington State was once the site of the legendary Missoula Floods, and experts say history could repeat itself. All 47 glaciers currently monitored in the state are retreating, creating new lakes in unstable terrain. Back in 1947, a combination of rain and glacial melt triggered a GLOF from the Kautz Glacier, sending 1.4 billion tons of mud and debris surging six miles and carving a canyon 300 feet deep. Now, the northeastern region of the state is considered a GLOF hotspot, and scientists have called for more urgent monitoring. In 2025, a panel of glaciologists urged the installation of seismic sensors and real-time weather stations to detect potential bursts before they happen. Despite advances in modeling and hazard mapping, the team wrote in the science journal called Nature, 'These events continue to cause large-scale destruction due to weak policy enforcement, inadequate warning systems and poor community preparedness.' While not as high-risk as Alaska, Wyoming's Wind River Range and Absaroka Mountains have experienced multiple GLOFs, and the state remains on alert. In 2003, the Grasshopper Glacier released 3.2 million cubic meters of water, damaging nearby infrastructure. A study using NASA Landsat satellite data found 13 separate GLOFs between 1994 and 2007, and local records have identified at least 15 total outbursts around Mammoth Glacier alone. That's the highest concentration of GLOFs documented in the Rockies since the Ice Age-era Missoula Floods. 'Glacial retreat is exposing new terrain where meltwater can accumulate,' scientists wrote. 'Eventually, these lakes become unstable, and when they go, they go fast.'
Gulf Today
5 days ago
- Science
- Gulf Today
Expanding and melting glacial lakes pose huge dangers
Glacial lakes and water bodies across the Himalayan region have expanded by 11% since 2011, according to a report by India's Central Water Commission (CWC). The report, highlighted in an India Today (IT) analysis, underscores the growing risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) as climate change accelerates glacial melting and lake expansion largely driven by global warming. Another IT report presents startling facts that melting glaciers are creating huge lakes in Himalayas and could burst anytime. This is according to satellite analyses by Suhora Technologies, which monitors 33,000 lakes across the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra basins, confirm accelerated growth in high-altitude lakes due to rapid glacier melt. Studies reveal that glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region – home to the world's largest ice reserves outside the poles – have grown by over 10% in area since 1990, with the Ganga basin witnessing a 22% surge in lake numbers. Rising global temperatures have pushed lake formation to elevations above 5500 meters, reflecting glacier retreat to higher altitudes. Over 76% of Himalayan glacial lakes are end-moraine-dammed, a fragile structure prone to breaches. A new study with ETH Zurich, published in the journal Science, finds that if global warming exceeds the Paris Climate Agreement targets, the non-polar glacier mass will diminish significantly, as per an ETHZ press release. Even if global temperatures were stabilised at today's level of 1.2°C, an estimated 39 per cent of global glacier mass would still be lost compared to 2020 levels – contributing over 10 centimetres to global sea-level rise. The study states that, however, if warming is limited to 1.5°C, at least 54% could be preserved — more than twice as much ice as in a 2.7°C scenario. Even if the rise in global temperatures were to stabilise at its current level, it is projected that the world would lose around 40% of its glaciers. If global warming can be limited to +1.5 °C, it may be possible to preserve twice as much glacier ice (54%) as in a scenario where temperatures rise by +2.7 °C (only 24%). For the study, an international team of 21 scientists from 10 countries used eight glacier models to calculate the potential ice loss from more than 200,000 glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica. The team evaluated a wide range of global temperature scenarios, assuming that temperatures would remain constant for thousands of years in each scenario. In all scenarios, the glaciers lose mass rapidly over decades and then continue to melt at a slower pace for centuries – even without additional warming. This long-term response means glaciers will continue to feel the effects of today's heat far into the future, gradually retreating to higher altitudes before reaching a new equilibrium. Melting glaciers reveal the reality of global warming, the study says. And, beyond contributing to sea-level rise, glacier loss has far-reaching consequences. It threatens freshwater availability, increases the risk of glacier-related hazards such as floods and landslides, and jeopardizes glacier-fed tourism economies. These cascading impacts will be felt across regions and generations. While other studies have limited to the year 2100 estimate that around 20% of today's glacier mass will be lost regardless of future warming, the new study reveals that nearly twice as much would vanish under present-day conditions when multi-centennial timescales are considered. The IT analysis points out that in India the CWC began monitoring glacial lakes in 2009 to enhance assessment and preparedness strategies. In its 2011 inventory, the CWC recorded 2028 glacial lakes and water bodies larger than 10 hectares. Since then, using advanced tools like remote sensing, satellite imagery, and cloud platforms, the CWC has prioritised monitoring 902 critical water bodies. This latest report from September 2024 reveals a 10.81% area increase in 544 glacial lakes and 358 water bodies over the past decade. While China shows the highest rate, similar trends in India show that 67 lakes have grown significantly. The analysis also underscores recent data from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) highlights the growing threat of GLOFs. ICIMOD's analysis shows that over 70% of the 700 recorded GLOFs events since 1833 have occurred in the last 50 years, illustrating the accelerating impact of climate change on glacial stability.
The Hindu
11-07-2025
- Climate
- The Hindu
Flood without rain in Nepal raises concerns about Glacial Lake Outbursts
There were no rain forecasts, so no warning alert as such. But early Tuesday, massive floods on the Bhotekoshi river in Rasuwa, a district bordering China, killed at least nine people and left 19 missing. Nepal's police and Army personnel carried out search and rescue operations throughout Tuesday, as authorities assessed the extent of the damage. The floods also swept away the Nepal-China Friendship Bridge, disconnecting one of the key trade points between Nepal and China. Among the missing are 11 Nepalese, six Chinese, and two police personnel. Officials and scientists, meanwhile, scrambled to find the cause of the flooding that occurred without rain. 'It is certain by now that it was not a rain-induced flooding,' said Binod Pokhrel, an associate professor at the Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology at Tribhuvan University. 'Weather forecasts and satellite data showed no rainfall in the Tibet region.' Nepal's mountainous terrain is vulnerable to monsoon floods that kill scores of people and damage property every year. While government authorities have been working on early warning systems, they have not been as effective as desired. Erratic rainfall, floods, landslides, and avalanches have become more frequent — and deadlier — in recent years, due in part to changing climate patterns, which are increasingly causing GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods). In an inventory prepared in 2020 by the Integrated Centre for Mountain Development (ICIMOD), of the more than 3,000 glacial lakes in Nepal, Tibet, and India, 47 were identified as potentially dangerous. Cause unclear After the Rasuwa flooding, the ICIMOD said in a statement that it is too early to definitively determine the exact cause of the flood event. 'However, we can confirm that extreme rainfall was not the cause. A comprehensive investigation is required, but we need to wait for the monsoon cloud cover to clear first to obtain clear satellite imagery for detailed analysis,' it said. 'While a GLOF or a Landslide Lake Outburst Flood is suspected, there is no conclusive evidence yet.' ICIMOD's 2021 inventory shows that one glacial lake upstream of the Trishuli River in the Tibetan Autonomous Region of China is categorised as high risk and needs close monitoring. According to a recent ICIMOD study, the size of glacial lakes in the upper basin increased by 33%, and their number by 16%, within three decades from 1990 to 2020. Ngamindra Dahal, a water and climate analyst, says Nepal needs to adopt a multi-scale approach to mitigate the disasters it is facing, especially in the northern region. 'Rasuwa floods should not be viewed in isolation. I call them synchronised events, given similar flood events in the past in the northern region,' he said. He stressed the need for a study based on local patterns in order to forecast — and respond to — such disasters. 'Haphazard construction, including that of hydropower projects, can have cascading effects, resulting in floods.' Mr. Dahal has been calling for a new approach to studying Nepal's Himalayas by incorporating organic data and understanding. 'Authorities are not only ignoring local patterns; they are undermining science as well,' he said. 'Their refusal to assimilate local knowledge and Nepali scientists — and their overreliance on those who may lack an exact understanding of the locality — is not helping either.' Information-sharing issues The surprise floods have also raised questions about whether there was any prior information from the Chinese side. Officials said that a few weeks ago, China had issued a notice to exercise caution along the riverbanks of rivers originating in Tibet. But since there was no forecast for rain, the occurrence of floods, according to experts, raises suspicions that something unusual may have happened. Mr. Pokhrel says it is not possible to forecast rainfall that leads to flooding days in advance. 'When such a notice was issued back then, and now floods have occurred, it raises the suspicion that this might have resulted from some kind of incident or accident,' he said Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, which forecasts floods and rains, also says there is no established mechanism for information sharing on floods and rains from the northern side. Mr. Dahal says Nepali authorities are also to blame, given the failure to recognise extreme weather events and work on preparedness measures. Economic impact Authorities said that besides the bridge linking Nepal and China being swept away, at least 24 container trucks with goods and 35 electric vehicles were also washed away. A customs port in Rasuwa and a hydropower project dam also suffered damage. With the linking bridge gone, trade through the Rasuwa border point — Nepal's second major trade point with China — has come to a complete halt. This route, officially opened in December 2014, was upgraded to an international checkpoint in 2017, allowing cross-border travel. The border point, however, remained inoperable for three years as China decided to close it due to COVID-19 restrictions, before it was reopened in April 2023. Records at the Department of Customs show that 30–40 fully loaded cargo containers were entering Nepal via the Rasuwa border point until Monday. Rains, floods, and landslides during the monsoon, which begins in June and lasts until September, are a major killer in Nepal, with 31 reported dead as of July 1 this year. In recent years, extreme weather events have been increasingly reported in the mountain regions, which is concerning due to the lack of quick response mechanisms compared to the plains. Mr. Dahal says that while the monsoon is climbing to higher altitudes, rising temperatures are causing ice to melt faster. Studies suggest the Himalaya is melting twice as fast as the global average. 'Chances are that the glaciers underneath could have melted suddenly due to rising temperatures, causing the early Tuesday floods in Rasuwa,' said Mr. Dahal. 'More comprehensive studies are required urgently before it's too late.' (Sanjeev Satgainya is an independent journalist based in Kathmandu)
Express Tribune
10-07-2025
- Climate
- Express Tribune
NDMA issues nationwide alert for heavy rains
Listen to article National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a nationwide alert, warning of heavy rains, thunderstorms, and an increased risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) over the next 12 hours. At least 90 people have lost their lives, and 158 others have been injured in rain-related incidents across Pakistan since June 26, according to the latest figures released by the NDMA on Thursday. The authority urged local administrations and residents to remain alert, particularly in areas near rivers and glaciers. According to the NDMA, a rise in temperatures combined with anticipated rainfall has heightened the risk of GLOFs in northern Pakistan. Residents near riverbanks in Hunza, Shigar, Ghanche, and Chitral have been advised to exercise extra caution. Relevant provincial and district disaster management bodies have also been instructed to monitor high-risk zones closely. شمالی علاقہ جات میں گلیشیائی جھیلوں کے طغیانی (GLOF) اور سیلابی صورتحال کا الرٹ جاری ۔ شمالی علاقہ جات خصوصاً ہنزہ، شگر، گانچھے اور چترال میں درجہ حرارت میں اضافے اور ممکنہ بارشوں کے باعث GLOF کا خطرہ بڑھ گیا ہے، لہذا دریاؤں کے قریب رہائشی محتاط رہیں۔ — NDMA PAKISTAN (@ndmapk) July 10, 2025 The weather forecast predicts heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds in Islamabad and several districts of Punjab, including Mianwali, Khushab, Faisalabad, Okara, Sahiwal, Multan, and Bahawalnagar. The NDMA warns of possible urban flooding, particularly in low-lying areas. In Balochistan, districts such as Zhob, Killa Saifullah, Loralai, Barkhan, Ziarat, Dera Bugti, Sibi, Chaman, Quetta, Mastung, Kalat, Surab, Khuzdar, Awaran, and Panjgur are also expected to experience heavy rainfall, along with gusty winds. The authority cautions about possible urban flooding, landslides, power outages, and traffic disruptions due to the adverse weather conditions. Also Read: At least 11 killed as flash floods hit northern Pakistan NDMA has strongly advised the public to stay away from weak structures, electricity poles, and billboards during storms. Additionally, sudden surges in water flow in local streams are a potential concern. Emergency response units have been instructed to ensure timely deployment of machinery and equipment in vulnerable areas. Tourists are specifically warned to avoid trekking or sightseeing near glacial regions due to the heightened risk of GLOFs. NDMA has also directed relevant departments to prioritise road clearance in the event of blockages and to take preventive actions to manage any emergencies. Citizens are urged to stay informed via the Pak NDMA Disaster Alert mobile application for real-time weather updates and safety guidelines. Punjab, the most populous province in Pakistan, reported the highest number of fatalities, with 32 deaths, including 18 children. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa recorded 30 deaths, 14 of them children. Sindh accounted for 16 deaths, including eight children, while Balochistan reported 11 fatalities, five of them children. Azad Jammu and Kashmir recorded one death. The NDMA's report highlighted that of the 90 deceased, 45 were children, 29 were men, and 16 were women. The number of injuries stood at 158, with 63 children, 56 men, and 39 women among the wounded. In addition to the loss of life, heavy rainfall has caused significant damage to property, affecting at least 343 houses nationwide. Of these, 109 houses were completely destroyed, while 234 sustained partial damage. Authorities are urging residents to exercise caution as the monsoon season continues, while relief efforts are underway in affected areas.
Business Recorder
05-07-2025
- Climate
- Business Recorder
66 killed, 127 injured in rain-related incidents across Pakistan
The flash floods and other heavy monsoon rain-related incidents have resulted in the deaths of 66 people and injuries to 127 others, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said on Saturday. The majority of the deceased and injured are children. The NDMA while issuing multiple impact-based nationwide weather alerts in light of the forecasted severe weather conditions until July 10, 2025, has warned of a growing risk of flash floods, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), and urban flooding in various parts of the country. According to the NDMA, the highest toll was in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) with 24 dead, including 11 children. Fourteen of the victims were swept away in a flash flood in the Swat Valley last week. Out of 66 deaths 31 are children, 22 men and 13 women. Flash floods and homes collapsing in heavy rain killed 22 others in Punjab, including 11 children, the authority said. In Sindh, 15 people were killed, while five people died in Balochistan. Of the 127 injured persons, 66 in Punjab, 21 in KPK, 34 in Sindh, two in Balochistan and three in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). In a separate press release, NDMA said that persistent high temperatures in northern Pakistan are likely to accelerate snow and glacier melt, heightening the risk of sudden GLOF events over the current and upcoming week. The authority has directed all federal ministries, provincial governments, line departments, and municipal administrations to remain on high alert and ensure full preparedness. Hunza district hit by massive glacial lake outburst flood Provincial disaster management authorities, including PDMA KP and GBDMA, along with district administrations, have been instructed to proactively monitor vulnerable glacial lakes and conduct evacuation drills in high-risk areas. Rescue services such as Rescue 1122, civil defence, fire brigades, and ambulance units have been placed on standby, while NDMA has called for intensive public awareness efforts in at-risk regions. Citizens have been urged to avoid unnecessary movement near nullahs, streams, and fast-flowing water channels, and to exercise extreme caution, especially in low-lying areas. Law enforcement and traffic police have been tasked with assisting travelers and managing routes in case of emergencies, in coordination with the National Highway and Motorway Police (NH&MP).
