Latest news with #GaryCunningham
Wall Street Journal
4 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
U.S. Natural Gas Futures Post Modest Gains
1525 ET – U.S. natural gas futures rise for a third straight session, holding above the key $3.50 level in choppy trade ahead of tomorrow's EIA storage data. 'Heat coming to Texas early next week has our full attention as it could set a new demand record,' Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy says in a note. Meanwhile, the low-pressure system that passed over northern Florida into the Gulf 'may end up being just a lot of rain from the panhandle to New Orleans,' he adds. The EIA is expected to report a slightly bigger-than-average 47 Bcf build in storage for last week, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Nymex natural gas settles up 0.8% at $3.551/mmBtu. ( 1018 ET – U.S. natural gas futures are higher for a third day with weather forecasts showing strong heat-driven demand for the second half of July. Traders are also taking note of an agreement for EQT to supply the natural gas for a 4.4 gigawatt plant to power a major data center development in Pennsylvania, as 'more supplies out of Appalachia may eventually become locally consumed,' Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Nymex natural gas is up 1.3% at $3.570/mmBtu. (
Business Recorder
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
US natgas prices gain
NEW YORK: US natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak, as hotter mid-July forecasts are expected to lift demand for air conditioning over the next two weeks, prompting power generators to burn more gas. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were 7.4 cents, or 2.2%, higher at $3.49 per million British thermal units by 10:14 a.m. EDT (1414 GMT). 'We're starting to see some heat coming onto the maps for the middle of July, and that's bringing some support back into the natural gas markets,' said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. 'We're also seeing all of the LNG terminals come out of maintenance, and that just creates fundamental support from a base perspective.' The main risk lies in how the winter contracts, particularly January, respond after the US Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report due on Thursday, Cunningham said. A smaller-than-expected injection in the low 40s could push the January futures contract toward the $5 level, with winter demand posing the biggest upside risk, he added. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states has risen to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from 105.9 bcfd in June, when normal spring pipeline maintenance curbed production. Output remains just below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd set in March. LSEG estimated 206 total degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 182 estimated on Tuesday. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, increased to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day for the current week from 103.7 bcfd in the prior week. The normal for this time of year is 172 TDDs. Total degree days measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above or below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) to estimate demand to cool or heat homes and businesses. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big US LNG export plants fell to 14.4 bcfd in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. Meanwhile, Russia's exports of liquefied natural gas in the first half of the year declined by 4.4% from a year earlier to 15.2 million metric tons, LSEG preliminary data showed on Wednesday, amid international sanctions over Ukraine. In particular, the US has imposed sanctions on companies and vessels tied to Russia's new Arctic LNG 2 project because of the conflict in Ukraine, effectively freezing it due to difficulties for Moscow in securing buyers. US President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to buy more US LNG and pledged to boost supply. Hurricanes are a double-edged sword for gas markets. They can drive prices up by cutting offshore production, even if just 2% comes from federal Gulf waters, but just as easily drag them down by knocking out LNG export terminals or slashing demand during widespread power outages. Some storms hit both sides of the equation.
Reuters
02-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
US natgas prices gain over 2% on mid-July heat forecasts, more cooling demand
July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak, as hotter mid-July forecasts are expected to lift demand for air conditioning over the next two weeks, prompting power generators to burn more gas. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were 7.4 cents, or 2.2%, higher at $3.49 per million British thermal units by 10:14 a.m. EDT (1414 GMT). "We're starting to see some heat coming onto the maps for the middle of July, and that's bringing some support back into the natural gas markets," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. "We're also seeing all of the LNG terminals come out of maintenance, and that just creates fundamental support from a base perspective." The main risk lies in how the winter contracts, particularly January, respond after the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report due on Thursday, Cunningham said. A smaller-than-expected injection in the low 40s could push the January futures contract toward the $5 level, with winter demand posing the biggest upside risk, he added. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from 105.9 bcfd in June, when normal spring pipeline maintenance curbed production. Output remains just below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd set in March. LSEG estimated 206 total degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 182 estimated on Tuesday. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, increased to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day for the current week from 103.7 bcfd in the prior week. The normal for this time of year is 172 TDDs. Total degree days measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above or below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) to estimate demand to cool or heat homes and businesses. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 14.4 bcfd in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. Meanwhile, Russia's exports of liquefied natural gas in the first half of the year declined by 4.4% from a year earlier to 15.2 million metric tons, LSEG preliminary data showed on Wednesday, amid international sanctions over Ukraine. In particular, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on companies and vessels tied to Russia's new Arctic LNG 2 project because of the conflict in Ukraine, effectively freezing it due to difficulties for Moscow in securing buyers. U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to buy more U.S. LNG and pledged to boost supply. Hurricanes are a double-edged sword for gas markets. They can drive prices up by cutting offshore production, even if just 2% comes from federal Gulf waters, but just as easily drag them down by knocking out LNG export terminals or slashing demand during widespread power outages. Some storms hit both sides of the equation. "Any Gulf of Mexico tropical activity would have to thread a needle to avoid LNG facilities that are located roughly every 200 miles between Corpus and Plaquemines," BofA Global Research said in a note. "Tropical disruptions to LNG exports would likely be bearish for domestic U.S. natural gas markets but bullish for global gas markets." Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose on Wednesday morning, rebounding from falls earlier in the week. text_section_type="notes"> For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down. For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: opens new tab For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: opens new tab For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: For the U.S. power speed guide, see: To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub futures only ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US natgas prices gain over 2% on mid-July heat forecasts, more cooling demand
By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak, as hotter mid-July forecasts are expected to lift demand for air conditioning over the next two weeks, prompting power generators to burn more gas. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were 7.4 cents, or 2.2%, higher at $3.49 per million British thermal units by 10:14 a.m. EDT (1414 GMT). "We're starting to see some heat coming onto the maps for the middle of July, and that's bringing some support back into the natural gas markets," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. "We're also seeing all of the LNG terminals come out of maintenance, and that just creates fundamental support from a base perspective." The main risk lies in how the winter contracts, particularly January, respond after the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report due on Thursday, Cunningham said. A smaller-than-expected injection in the low 40s could push the January futures contract toward the $5 level, with winter demand posing the biggest upside risk, he added. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from 105.9 bcfd in June, when normal spring pipeline maintenance curbed production. Output remains just below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd set in March. LSEG estimated 206 total degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 182 estimated on Tuesday. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, increased to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day for the current week from 103.7 bcfd in the prior week. The normal for this time of year is 172 TDDs. Total degree days measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above or below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) to estimate demand to cool or heat homes and businesses. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 14.4 bcfd in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. Meanwhile, Russia's exports of liquefied natural gas in the first half of the year declined by 4.4% from a year earlier to 15.2 million metric tons, LSEG preliminary data showed on Wednesday, amid international sanctions over Ukraine. In particular, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on companies and vessels tied to Russia's new Arctic LNG 2 project because of the conflict in Ukraine, effectively freezing it due to difficulties for Moscow in securing buyers. U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to buy more U.S. LNG and pledged to boost supply. Hurricanes are a double-edged sword for gas markets. They can drive prices up by cutting offshore production, even if just 2% comes from federal Gulf waters, but just as easily drag them down by knocking out LNG export terminals or slashing demand during widespread power outages. Some storms hit both sides of the equation. "Any Gulf of Mexico tropical activity would have to thread a needle to avoid LNG facilities that are located roughly every 200 miles between Corpus and Plaquemines," BofA Global Research said in a note. "Tropical disruptions to LNG exports would likely be bearish for domestic U.S. natural gas markets but bullish for global gas markets." Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose on Wednesday morning, rebounding from falls earlier in the week. [NG/EU] Week Week Year Five-y ended ended ago ear Jun Jun Jun averag 27 20 27 e Forec Actua Jun 27 ast l U.S. weekly natgas +51 +96 +35 +61 storage change (bcf): U.S. total natgas in 2,949 2,898 3,129 2,780 storage (bcf): U.S. total storage +6.1% +6.6% versus 5-year average Global Gas Benchmark This Prior Five- Futures ($ per mmBtu) Month Year Year Curre Prior Last Averag Avera nt Day Year e 2024 ge Day (2019 -2023 ) Henry Hub 2.81 2.41 3.52 3.41 3.41 Title Transfer Facility 10.87 10.95 15.47 (TTF) 10.93 10.87 Japan Korea Marker 12.30 11.89 15.23 (JKM) 13.11 13.13 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Curre Prior Prior 10-Yea 30-Ye nt Day Year r Norm ar Day Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 3 4 4 1 4 U.S. GFS CDDs 202 178 216 180 168 U.S. GFS TDDs 206 182 217 183 172 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts This Five- Week Year Prior Curre Next Last (2020 Week nt Week Year -2024 Week )Aver age For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry 103.0 96.8 Production 106.9 107.2 107.0 U.S. Imports from N/A 7.3 Canada 7.9 8.2 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply N/A 104.1 114.9 115.4 114.7 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada N/A 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 U.S. Exports to Mexico N/A 6.3 5.9 6.3 6.5 U.S. LNG Exports 12.7 9.1 14.2 15.2 15.6 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.3 U.S. Residential 3.7 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.6 U.S. Power Plant 44.2 38.0 43.7 44.9 44.6 U.S. Industrial 21.7 21.5 22.3 22.2 22.2 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 81.4 76.8 81.9 82.7 82.3 Total U.S. Demand N/A 88.2 103.7 106.1 106.4 N/A is Not Available U.S. Northwest River 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022 Forecast Center (NWRFC) Curre Prio % of % of % of at The Dalles Dam nt r Day Norma Normal Norma (Fiscal year ending Sep Day % of l Actual l 30) % of Norma Actua Actua Norma l l l l Forec Forec ast ast Apr-Sep 74 83 107 76 76 Jan-Jul 76 77 102 78 78 Oct-Sep 77 76 103 79 79 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week Week 2024 2023 2022 ended ended July Jun 4 27 Wind 11 10 11 6 10 Solar 5 4 3 7 7 Hydro 6 6 6 5 5 Other 1 2 2 1 1 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 41 38 44 42 Coal 16 17 21 19 19 Nuclear 19 19 19 17 16 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Curre Prior nt Day Day Henry Hub 3.26 3.26 Transco Z6 New York 2.93 2.93 PG&E Citygate 3.72 3.72 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.71 2.71 Chicago Citygate 2.93 2.93 Algonquin Citygate 3.38 3.38 SoCal Citygate 4.25 4.25 Waha Hub 2.20 2.20 AECO 0.02 0.02 ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Curre Prior nt Day Day New England 66.08 66.08 PJM West 55.06 55.06 Mid C 70.70 70.70 Palo Verde 58.23 58.23 SP-15 40.26 40.26 text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see:For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see:For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: [NGAS/POLL]For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: [NUKE/]For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see:For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see:For the U.S. power speed guide, see:To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combinedNYMEX Henry Hub futures onlyICE Henry Hub options and futures combinedNYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combinedNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Times
20-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Intense heat to push biggest US grid's power use to 12-year high
[NEW YORK] Electricity use on the biggest US grid, which serves nearly a fifth of Americans from Washington DC to Illinois, is expected to climb to a 12-year high as intense heat spurs air conditioning needs. A heat wave will start baking the mid-Atlantic on Saturday (Jun 21) with temperatures climbing to 38 deg C in Washington on Monday, 13 degrees above average, according to Households and businesses relying on the grid managed by PJM Interconnection may use as much as 158.5 gigawatts at about 5.00 pm ET, according to the system operator. That would make it the highest hourly peak demand since July 2013 and is above this summer's anticipated high, PJM data show. The all-time high for electricity demand was set in 2006, at nearly 165.6 gigawatts. PJM's demand growth is rebounding after languishing for the better part of a decade, as new data centres cropped up in Northern Virginia and spread across the grid. More efficient appliances and light bulbs had halted growth for years. Consumer costs are starting to climb as well, especially after an auction last year to procure supplies rose to a record high for a 12-month period that started Jun 1. Power prices for Monday soared to an average at US$200 a megawatt-hour in exchange-traded contracts, a roughly five-fold increase from Friday's day-ahead price, said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. 'The swath of heat stretching from the central plains to the big apple will bring near-record heat to many metropolitan areas, but is happening early enough in the year that power demands should fall shy of records in most areas,' he said. The East Coast areas relying on PJM will endure much higher and more volatile prices than parts of the Midwest, he said. BLOOMBERG
