Latest news with #GianluigiGuercia
IOL News
5 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
Liberation Day to record highs: The hidden strength in SA equities
South Africa's own bourse has quietly delivered exceptional returns, says the author. Image: Gianluigi Guercia / AFP In a world beset by geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and economic uncertainty, equity markets have continued to surprise on the upside. For South African investors, the post - "Liberation Day" rally has revealed a hidden strength in local equities that defies the broader narrative of emerging market vulnerability. While global headlines have been dominated by tariff threats, war-driven commodity fluctuations, and the resilience of US markets, South Africa's own bourse has quietly delivered exceptional returns. Since the 2nd of April, now dubbed 'Liberation Day', the local and global equity markets have handled the turmoil like a champ. Despite, ongoing wars, oil price concerns and the renewed threat of steep tariffs from President Trump. The US equity market has continued to remain resilient and even rally since the last round of tariff threats. The S&P 500 has recovered to record highs once again, with a return of about 24% since the bottom of the drop. Meanwhile, the VIX has recovered to normal levels signalling positive investor sentiment post April. The recovery was mainly driven by rallies in the tech and industrial sectors. The South African equity market also performed impressively in the period, reaching all-time highs of its own, returning around 19% since Trump's tariff turmoil began. Combined with the relative strengthening of the rand to the dollar, this has allowed the JSE All Share index to outperform the S&P500 over the last five years in dollar returns. Figure 1: Total Return Index Image: Prescient Investment Management, Bloomberg (as at July 2025) This outcome is particularly striking considering the strong US equity exceptionalism narrative and the global shift towards dollar-based assets over the past decade The performance underscores that, over this period, the JSE All Share Index has been a surprisingly competitive investment option for both global and local investors! However, despite these strong returns, foreign investors have remained persistent net sellers of South African equities, with nearly R150 billions in net outflows recorded so far this year. This trend underscores that the main beneficiaries of the market's strong performance have been local and foreign investors who chose to stay, rather than new foreign capital inflows. A major driver behind the stellar year-to-date performance has been the basic materials sector, notably gold miners, who have benefited from a roughly 28% increase in the gold price so far this year. The basic materials sector now accounts for about 21% of the All Share Index, only a few percentage points behind the financial sector's 25% weighting. Meanwhile, the telecommunications and technology sectors have also delivered impressive gains, adding to the market's broad-based rally. Figure 3: Year to Date SA Sector Performance Image: Source: Prescient Investment Management, Bloomberg July 2025 Looking ahead, investors will keep a close eye on the 1st of August, the deadline Trump has set for the next round of tariffs. This presents a new potential wave of uncertainty for markets. However, investors can take some comfort in knowing that while tariffs present a once-off upward shock to price levels, they are unlikely to impact long-term inflation expectations. Long-term inflation expectations are a key driver of forward returns for all asset classes, including bonds and equities. This component of the forward returns should, therefore, remain largely unchanged by tariffs even if they do come into effect. Nicholas De Clercq Image: Supplied Nicholas De Clercq, Quantitative Analyst at Prescient Investment Management *** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL. BUSINESS REPORT
IOL News
17-07-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Trencor to delist following successful fulfillment of liquidation condition
Johannesburg Stock Exchange JSE The company said July 29 will be the last day to trade in shares and only those who trade before this date will be eligible to receive the special dividend. Image: Gianluigi Guercia / AFP Stocks of cash holding company Trencor plunged by 1.9% to R1.06 per share early on Thursday following an announcement that it has fulfilled the final condition required for its impending delisting on the JSE after 70 years and voluntary winding-up. This news follows prior communications in May, June, and earlier this month, which outlined the company's plans to gradually cease operations while ensuring shareholders receive their due dividends. Trencor is the latest company to announce it is delisting following AH-Vest's announcement in June to delist from the JSE's AltX board at a time when the JSE has undertaken several initiatives to make it easier and less costly for small and medium-sized businesses to list. In 2024, there were about 14 company delistings from the JSE, continuing a multi-year trend of a contraction in the number of listed companies. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad loading As detailed in the company's latest update, the key condition—known as the JM12 Condition—has been completed, allowing Trencor to proceed to the next stages of the proposed transaction. The JM12 Condition, as stipulated in section 80(3)(b) of the Companies Act, necessitated the issuance of a JM12 certificate from the Master of the High Court, which permits the delisting efforts to take effect without the requirement of security being furnished to the court. Following this pivotal certification, Trencor has laid out an exact timeline for the implementation of the proposed transaction, ensuring that all shareholders are prepared to take the necessary steps for their investments. The company said July 29 will be the last day to trade in shares and only those who trade before this date will be eligible to receive the special dividend. July 30 will mark the suspension of trading of Trencor shares on the JSE and August 1 will be the official record date for entitlement to the special dividend. On August 4, both dematerialised and certificated shareholders will receive the special dividend of 90 cents per share and the following day will mark the termination of listing. The company will then be placed into liquidation on August 6 or as soon as reasonably Wednesday, 6 August possible thereafter. Trencor said shareholders should be aware that post this timeframe, they will not be able to dematerialise or rematerialise their shares. Furthermore, the dividend distributions will carry tax implications, and as such shareholders who are exempt from dividend withholding tax will receive the gross dividend of 90 cents per share. A dividend withholding tax at the rate of 20% will be applicable to shareholders who are not exempt from this tax and who are not subject to a reduced rate in terms of any applicable agreement for the avoidance of double taxation between South Africa and such shareholders' country of residence, resulting in a net dividend of 72 cents per share to these shareholders. Shareholders uncertain about their tax status or other concerns are advised to consult with a professional advisor swiftly. At the time of the dividend declaration, Trencor's issued share capital stood at R867 million, represented by 173.5 million ordinary shares of 0.5 cents each. This timely update reaffirms Trencor's commitment to ensuring a smooth transition for its shareholders as it moves towards the final stages of its operational closure. BUSINESS REPORT
IOL News
24-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Investor sentiment brightens for South African platinum miners as prices rebound
Johannesburg Stock Exchange JSE A higher net of 50% of managers surveyed said they see the South African equity market as undervalued while a slightly higher net of 60% see more 'Buy' than 'Sell' opportunities, noted the report. Image: Gianluigi Guercia / AFP Tawanda Karombo Investor sentiment towards South African platinum miners has shown a marked improvement recently, buoyed by a significant rise in platinum prices, signaling a potential shift in the market landscape. After enduring a protracted period of depressed investor interest driven by low prices and concerns about the market's stability—largely influenced by the increasing popularity of electric vehicles—platinum group metals are experiencing a notable resurgence. Mining analyst Keenen Du Toit this week said that the platinum prices this month 'jumped to $1 300 per ounce – the highest since 2014' although 'still significantly lagging the big move up' in gold. 'Historically the PGM basket price has traded closely to gold, and even above in many cases,' said Du Toit. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Now, South African fund managers surveyed by Bank of America (BofA) Securities said on Tuesday that investors have become overweight on platinum. This represents one of the biggest shifts as the fund managers positioning on platinum shifted from underweight to overweight. 'Biggest gain in platinum sector positioning,' said BofA in its June 2025 South Africa fund manager survey. This high positioning for platinum was 'relative to history in software, gold, retail and food producers and bonds.' This is despite the World Platinum Investment Council recently saying full-year output will still be 6% lower than last year 'since South African producers will not benefit from the large drawdown of work-in-process inventory that occurred' last year. Besides the inclination towards platinum, South African fund managers have exhibited 'low positioning' in healthcare, offshore, telecom and cash. The biggest falls were recorded for heavy industrials and cash. The latest survey marked the return of rand hedges, with a net 30% of managers overweight on equities after moving overweight to bonds and underweight on cash. 'They want to invest cash. Preferred sectors are banks, apparel retail, software (while they) disliked healthcare, real estate, food producers,' noted the BofA report. 'Resources (platinum, chemicals, miners) gained over local defensives like food producers, healthcare, life insurance).' A higher net of 50% of managers surveyed said they see the South African equity market as undervalued while a slightly higher net of 60% see more 'Buy' than 'Sell' opportunities, noted the report. In terms of government reforms, 15% of surveyed fund managers see 'reforms accelerating' against a peak reading of 56% for September 2024. Many fund managers cited 'weak earnings' as a major concern while they also see 'weak consumer on the radar' despite policy shifts to the left easing. Fund managers moved overweight on South African bonds, with fewer wanting to buy government bonds again this month. Surveyed respondents were in consensus that the South African repurchase rate (repo rate) will bottom in the third quarter, while they expected the country's 10-year yields to trade at 8.97% if the 3% inflation target is maintained. 'Economic optimism slightly more positive. +12M yield curve forecast falls 25 basis points. South Africa, we need reform and growth, to put South African citizens first, and a weaker dollar (outside a global recession),' BofA said. Alongside this, South Africa's fiscal dominance concerns were elevated compared to historically, despite showing improvement recently with weaker dollar and rising precious metal prices. Managers now expect a firmer rand, lower bond yields and a lower repo rate of nearly two 25 basis points cuts from today. BUSINESS REPORT
IOL News
23-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
JSE Top 40 companies lag in gender pay gap disclosures
Johannesburg Stock Exchange JSE Only 13 of the JSE Top 40 companies disclose any measurable gender pay gap data, a new briefing by Just Share reveals. Image: Gianluigi Guercia / AFP Only 13 of the JSE Top 40 companies disclose any measurable gender pay gap data, a new briefing by Just Share reveals. Companies that disclosed gender pay were: Anglo American (UK only); Anglo American Platinum; British American Tobacco; Clicks; Discovery; Gold Fields; Impala Holdings; Investec plc, Investec ltd, MTN, Nepi Rockcastle and Vodacom. Despite making up 46% of South Africa's economically active population, women earn on average 30% less than men, and South Africa's largest listed companies appear to be doing little to change that. Just Share said even among these, transparency is inconsistent and often limited to international operations where disclosure is mandatory. Fourteen companies offer only vague commitments to 'fair pay', while 13 fail to mention gender pay at all. International compliance While the JSE's Sustainability Disclosure Guidance acknowledges the importance of this issue, recommending that companies report the "ratio of the total annual remuneration of women to men, and by race group, for each employee category, by significant location of operations", disclosure is currently not enforced. This guidance aligns with international reporting standards and reflects growing investor expectations around transparency and accountability. By contrast, several international jurisdictions, including Australia and the UK in which several JSE-listed companies operate, have established legislative frameworks to enhance gender pay transparency. In the United Kingdom, the Equality Act 2010 (Gender Pay Gap Information Regulations 2017) mandates that employers with 250 or more employees must annually publish their mean and median gender pay gaps. Employers are also required to report gender distributions across pay quartiles and disclose disparities in bonus payments. Similarly, Australia's Workplace Gender Equality Amendment (Closing the Gender Pay Gap) Act 2023 requires employers to report both average and median remuneration differences between men and women. Additionally, organisations must outline the specific measures they have implemented to address and reduce these disparities. However, for JSE Top 40 companies with a presence in the EU, the forthcoming EU Pay Transparency Directive will introduce comprehensive requirements including gender pay gap analysis and disclosures, mandatory audits, and employee access to pay data. Member states must transpose this directive into national legislation by June 2026. Pay equity as a critical lever "Pay equity is a critical lever for addressing the deep-rooted inequalities that continue to shape South Africa's labour market and broader society. While there has been notable progress in women's economic and political participation, formal employment, and educational attainment, the gender pay gap remains a persistent and systemic issue," Just Share said. Just Share said not only is the gender pay gap a significant barrier to achieving gender equity, but evidence shows that it persists despite growing recognition that a comprehensive approach to pay equity can enhance employee engagement and strengthen overall human capital management. Fair and transparent pay practices also signal an inclusive workplace culture, help close diversity gaps, and enhance long-term organisational competitiveness. To meaningfully address the gender pay gap, Just Share said organisations must begin by measuring and disclosing it. Transparency is the first step toward accountability and reform. However, public disclosure of gender pay data in South Africa is voluntary. The Companies Amendment Act of 2024 mandates the disclosure of vertical wage gaps, the pay gap between a company's highest- and lowest-paid employees, but not gender-based wage disparities. "This leaves a glaring accountability gap, particularly as several JSE-listed companies already comply with mandatory gender pay reporting in jurisdictions like the UK and Australia, yet choose not to do so in South Africa. This omission contributes to the inconsistent and non-comparable nature of pay equity data across companies," it said. Just Share recommends: Employers have a responsibility to proactively identify and address gender -based pay disparities within their organisations. Conducting regular internal gender pay gap analyses should not be viewed as a strategic imperative that supports inclusive, sustainable business growth. The Companies Amendment Act should be further revised under the duty to prepare a remuneration report to require the disclosure of gender pay gaps, aligning with global best practices. Institutional investors should publicly endorse best-practice on pay transparency, and include gender pay gap disclosure as a priority engagement topic with investee companies. BUSINESS REPORT Visit:
IOL News
19-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
SA markets under pressure as geopolitical tensions escalate and US Fed signals caution
Johannesburg Stock Exchange JSE The rand fell 0.6% to R18.12 against the US dollar during early morning trade but still remained above the R18-mark by late afternoon while the JSE All Share Index eased by 0.2% to 94 785 points. Image: Gianluigi Guercia / AFP South African markets traded on the backfoot on Thursday on the back of geopolitical risks arising from the war in the Middle East and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) revised down its growth forecasts for the US. The rand fell 0.6% to R18.12 against the US dollar during early morning trade but still remained above the R18-mark by late afternoon while the JSE All Share Index eased by 0.2% to 94 785 points. The markets have remained on edge across the world as the war between Israel and Iran has intensified, pushing global oil prices to their highest in four months. An Iranian missile barrage left at least 240 people wounded as they struck several sites across Israel, damaging a hospital in the country's south while targeting a military site. Israel also attacked Iran's Arak heavy water nuclear reactor as the two countries traded fire for a seventh consecutive day. The war in the Middle East saw the Brent crude oil price rising 1.7% above $78 per barrel on Thursday as the main concern for the oil market remains the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for a fifth of global crude. Oil prices are now trading nearly 9% higher since Israel's initial strikes on Iran, with energy markets increasingly pricing in the chance of deeper supply disruptions. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Adding to tensions, senior US officials are reportedly preparing for a possible strike on Iran in the coming days, signaling Washington's readiness to enter the conflict. However, mixed signals remain, as the White House has given little indication of whether the US would support strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group - an independent financial advisory and asset management firm - said global financial markets were likely to suffer a rapid and sharp selloff if the US launches direct military strikes against Iran. Green said a direct US military intervention could push crude significantly higher, especially if key infrastructure or shipping lanes are affected. 'The world economy is not in a strong position to absorb another energy shock,' Green said. 'If oil spikes from here, inflation expectations will shift, interest rate cut expectations will fade, and that would create a double blow for equities already priced for perfection.' Separately, the US Fed on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting but signaled two possible cuts by year-end. However, the Fed trimmed one cut for both 2026 and 2027, with the bank raising its inflation outlook and lowering its growth forecast. It comes as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration, and taxation. The Fed noted that the increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity, adding that the effects on inflation could be short-lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level— and could instead be more persistent. It said the effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined.
