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Indian Express
2 hours ago
- Business
- Indian Express
India's FTA focus: Trade in the time of disorder
The formal signing of the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) headlined Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the UK. Since leaving the EU, 'Global' Britain has been on a spree to conclude or join FTAs. After a period of FTA pause, India, too, is on an accelerated pursuit of trade agreements. Though neither is the other's major trading partner, the salience of CETA lies in the symbolism and substance, the future potential, the many tangible and intangible dimensions of this partnership, and the infusion of strength into a relationship that faces challenges not from customary colonial memories, but from contemporary challenges to India's security and integrity. CETA's significance also derives from its ambition. FTAs either cover areas that fall within the mandate of the WTO or go deeper in covering commitments and harmonisation on a range of national economic policy issues to facilitate stronger economic partnership among signatories. CETA embodies the latter. The two governments have hailed CETA as a landmark agreement because of the balance of openings and protections, coverage and scope and also because, from India's standpoint, it is the first comprehensive one with a major Western partner that defines the template for others, including with the EU. CETA is historic for another reason. It is an important milestone in India's — as in the world's — growing reliance on bilateralism and regionalism at a time when the multilateral trade regime is eroding as its architect, which is still the world's most powerful economy, turns its back on it. President Donald Trump has abandoned the foundational principle of the global trade regime. As in other domains, the US no longer finds the system it created useful or attractive. Trump has accelerated a longer-term trend in the US since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 towards trade hesitancy, if not hostility, and protectionism, through the successive tenures of presidents Barack Obama, Trump and Joe Biden. There is a bipartisan consensus that the US will not surrender its sovereignty to the binding rule-making role of the WTO. The current sentiments will continue to shape the US political economy. For the US and the West broadly, the problem has deeper structural roots in the consequences of the recent wave of globalisation that began in the 1970s and peaked by the time of the GFC. The first wave of globalisation from 1870 to 1914 led to the concentration of prosperity and power in the industrialising West and America's rise as a major power. By contrast, the recent phase triggered Asia's rise, China's emergence as a major power and the West's relative decline with disruptive political consequences in the advanced countries. In particular, it has resulted in China's extraordinary accumulation of industrial and technological power and dominance in key industries and supply chains in a fundamentally different political and economic system, incongruous with a transparent trade regime. The concentration risk was laid bare by the Covid pandemic. Further, the sharpening geopolitical competition has manifested in trade and technology. The war in Ukraine deepened shifts and uncertainty. Together, these factors have put globalism and its scaffolding under extreme stress. Calls for reshoring and industrial sovereignty face limitations of lost capabilities, and deeply entrenched Global Value Chains (GVCs) that various estimates put at 50-70 per cent of global trade. Trade remains essential for all nations. But as nations seek to derisk, diversify and rebalance trade relations in a world in flux, they seek long-term commitment, trust, assurance and resilience through bilateral and regional agreements. The number of such agreements, although within the WTO framework, has risen rapidly in the past two decades, with an increase in momentum after the GFC and the Covid pandemic. Trump's strategy will accelerate the trend. For one, despite his impetuosity, the legislative uncertainty of his authority and questionable enforceability of the 'deals', countries are seeking exclusive and competitive bilateral agreements with the US. At the same time, hedging strategies, against both US unpredictability and China's dominance, will trigger new bilateral or regional agreements, as well as expansion, restructuring and interlocking of existing regional agreements: The Trans Pacific Partnership was resuscitated as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) after the US's exit. India's preferred path is more manageable bilateral agreements with countries or groupings rather than participation in regional agreements. India signed a spate of agreements during the UPA era, mostly in Asia. However, not all of them were with competitors like ASEAN, but also with complementary economies like Japan and Korea. That these agreements had disappointing outcomes was as much due to their terms as to our lack of competitiveness. Their lessons are shaping the choice of partners and the terms of the agreements, and alignment with domestic policies and incentives. Nonetheless, global trends point to an enhanced need for comprehensive FTAs. With the atrophying of the predictable, non-discriminatory global trade regime, FTAs will become determinants of competitiveness. These have become essential for creating opportunities for our services sector and mobility of our professionals, and for access to critical minerals, technology, innovation and energy. Above all, there is a strong correlation between high-quality FTAs and the GVCs. Assured integration into GVCs will serve our twin objectives of rapid industrialisation and export growth at scale. It is even more critical now as various studies estimate the share of potential bottleneck products in global trade to have doubled since 2000 to around 20 per cent, with almost 66 per cent of the share of the global export value in these products now coming from East Asia-Pacific. This also means that, besides the new FTA with Australia, we must revisit the CEPA/CECA with Japan, Korea and Singapore, not just to improve their terms but also for assured access to critical inputs to fully exploit the potential of FTAs with Western partners. This will also require finding a modus vivendi with China. As India pursues its national transformation at a time of global disorder, shaping our external economic engagement strategically is both a geopolitical necessity and an economic imperative. The writer is a retired ambassador
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dividend Investing: 10 Years From Now, You'll Be Glad You Bought These Magnificent Stocks
Written by Puja Tayal at The Motley Fool Canada Dividend investing has various options. There are dividend ETFs, dividend growth stocks, dividend reinvestment plans (DRIP), high-yield stocks, and some stocks that cut dividends. Each has its benefits and an investing strategy. The conundrum is identifying which strategy is right for your investing needs. If you are looking to build a sizeable passive income pool to supplement your income 10 years from now, these magnificent dividend stocks are worth considering. Two magnificent stocks that could give good passive income 10 years from now When you have time to stay invested, a low-yield stock with a high dividend growth rate can do wonders. goeasy stock goeasy (TSX:GSY) is a non-prime lender growing its business gradually in Canada while keeping credit risk in check. It is expanding its loan portfolio and allocating net interest income to reinvest in more loans and pay dividends. The size and risk of the loan portfolio determine its share price, and the total interest income earned determines the dividend amount. goeasy has been expanding successfully and growing dividends at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% in the last 11 years. The high growth rate comes with high risk. The company can slow or pause the dividend growth if loan defaults rise, as they did in the 2009 Global Financial Crisis. The lender did not grow dividends between 2009 and 2014, but neither did it cut dividends. Canada has capped the annual percentage rate (APR) at 35%, which has reduced goeasy's interest income slightly, but not much. However, it can continue delivering strong double-digit dividend growth, as the loan portfolio increases while the charge-off rate remains within the targeted range of 8–10%. Assuming goeasy grows its dividend at a 15% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), the annual dividend can grow from $5.84 in 2025 to $6.72 in 2026 and $20.54 in 2034. A $20,000 investment today can buy you 106 shares of goeasy and earn you $711.90 in 2026 and $2,177.70 in 2034. Year goeasy's annual dividend per share at a 15% CAGR* Annual dividend income on 106 shares of goeasy 2025 $5.840 $619.04 2026 $6.716 $711.90 2027 $7.723 $818.68 2028 $8.882 $941.48 2029 $10.214 $1,082.70 2030 $11.746 $1,245.11 2031 $13.508 $1,431.88 2032 $15.535 $1,646.66 2033 $17.865 $1,893.66 2034 $20.544 $2,177.71 How to maximize your dividend income Many high-dividend growth stocks do not offer a dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP). They pay you dividends. Thus, one suggestion is to consider investing in them through a Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA). The TFSA allows you to grow your investments tax-free. You can use the tax-free dividend income to buy shares of BCE (TSX:BCE). As no dividend tax is deducted in the TFSA, the entire amount can be reinvested. BCE stock The Canadian telco slashed its dividend for the first time in 17 years by 56% to $1.75 per share in 2025. The move was welcomed by investors as higher dividend payments of over 100% of free cash flow were weakening the balance sheet. The dividend cut and a change in the target dividend payout range to 40% to 55% of free cash flow will give the company financial flexibility to reduce debt and fund its business restructuring. BCE is moving aggressively from telco to techno and has made several acquisitions and partnerships in that regard. A reduction in debt, offloading of lower margin businesses, and entry into high margin businesses will help BCE grow its free cash flow significantly in the future. BCE offers a DRIP, and a dividend cut has reduced its yield to 5.4%. Now is a good time to start accumulating the telco's shares by reinvesting the goeasy dividend in a BCE DRIP. That way, you will compound your returns at two levels. Within the next 10 years, BCE could resume growing its dividends and expedite your compounding. Investor takeaway Investing in the right stocks at the right time can determine where you stand in your investing journey. A carefully crafted stock list can help you invest with confidence. The post Dividend Investing: 10 Years From Now, You'll Be Glad You Bought These Magnificent Stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada. Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now? Before you put a single dollar into the stock market, we think you'll want to hear this. Our S&P/TSX market beating* Stock Advisor Canada team just released their Top Stocks for 2025 and Beyond that we believe could supercharge any portfolio. Want to see what made our list? Get started with Stock Advisor Canada today to receive all of our Top Stocks, a fully stocked treasure trove of industry reports, two brand-new stock recommendations every month, and much more. See the Top Stocks * Returns as of 6/23/25 More reading 10 Stocks Every Canadian Should Own in 2025 3 Canadian Companies Powering the AI Revolution A Commonsense Cash Back Credit Card We Love Fool contributor Puja Tayal has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. 2025 Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Wire
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Wire
400 Capital Management Secures Legal Victory In $400 Million RMBS Case
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--400 Capital Management LLC ('400CM'), an alternative credit manager specializing in asset-based credit strategies with over $7.7 billion of assets under management, announced a significant legal victory in a long-running residential mortgage-backed securities ('RMBS') trustee case involving 34 legacy RMBS trusts. The ruling, issued by the New York Supreme Court, delivered long-awaited clarity on the allocation of recoveries related to modified loans and affirms the rights of junior bondholders under legacy RMBS documents. The dispute centered on approximately $400 million in losses from principal forbearance, also referred to as deferred principal, which was granted to distressed homeowners following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Years later, as borrowers began to repay those forborne amounts, disputes emerged between holders of the trusts' junior bonds, including 400CM, and holders of the senior bonds over how to allocate the resulting recoveries within the capital structures of the affected trusts. Wells Fargo, the trustee of the 34 disputed RBMS trusts, treated repaid principal forbearance amounts as 'subsequent recoveries', the same treatment as all other loss recoveries. In 2021, Justice Marcy Friedman in the New York Supreme Court held that in trusts with subsequent recovery provisions that provided for the write-up of junior bonds, and not senior bonds, the trustee should follow the unambiguous language of the contracts to write up junior, and not senior, bonds. The trustee changed its write-up practices for the trusts in April 2021. In response to the change in write-ups, senior bondholders asserted that such recoveries should not benefit junior tranches, which led to this litigation. Wells Fargo filed a lawsuit later in 2021 seeking the court's guidance on how to account for repaid principal forbearance. Ultimately, the court ruled in favor of 400CM and its fellow junior bondholders, ruling that loss recoveries from modified loans are indeed 'subsequent recoveries'—even if the loans are not fully liquidated—and should be distributed according to the express provisions of the governing trust agreements. 'This ruling represents a significant positive outcome for 400 Capital Management, our investors, the market for subordinated risk, and all investors as they benefit from the law being clear and enforced,' said Todd Leih, Partner and Chief Data Scientist and Head of Quantitative Research at 400CM. 'In addition to resolving the treatment of forbearance recoveries for these specific trusts, the decision establishes critical precedent for the broader RMBS market. While the decision is appealable by the senior bondholders who were party to the litigation, we are confident that we will ultimately prevail if an appeal is filed and will continue to protect the interests of our investors.' 400CM was represented by Principals Courtney Statfeld and Robert Scheef of McKool Smith. About 400 Capital Management LLC Founded in 2008, 400CM is an alternative credit asset manager led by a management team with over three decades of experience investing and trading in credit markets. The firm is an established, process-oriented investment platform with a demonstrated ability to consistently generate competitive returns, develop capital markets businesses and create innovative solutions utilized throughout the market. The firm offers investors a global platform that accesses differentiated credit investment opportunities through total and absolute return strategies in flagship funds and customized portfolio solutions. The team consists of 78 professionals across offices in New York and London, who collectively manage over $7.7 billion for global institutional investors. To learn more about 400CM, please visit
NZ Herald
2 days ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
Housing market recovery delayed despite rising sales volumes
Cotality (formerly known as CoreLogic and one of the foremost authorities on the housing market) recently noted that volumes have been gradually rising for about two years. It points out that the rise in May activity pushed sales levels to 5% above anything we've seen at that point in the year since 2016. On that basis, the slump looks to be behind us, but we haven't seen a recovery on the pricing front. The REINZ house price index (HPI) has fallen for six out of the past seven months. Nationwide prices are unchanged over the past 12 months and still 16.3% below the peak in late 2021. That's not the case everywhere, of course. The South Island has performed much more strongly, with Canterbury, Otago and Southland more buoyant and all within 5% of the peak. The impact of a solid agricultural sector is likely to be part of the reason for that. In contrast, Auckland and Wellington have struggled and are still more than 20% below the heady levels of a few years ago. The median number of days to sell is also elevated, reflecting a sluggish market in which properties sit unsold for longer. It rose to 50 days in June, and has averaged 47 in the past 12 months. That's the highest since mid-2023, when interest rates were rising quickly and the economy was in recession. Excluding that period, it's the highest since 2008 and 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis. There are numerous reasons to explain our underperforming housing market. For a start, affordability is still awful. Prices have been flat for two years, having fallen almost 20% from the peak before that. However, the rise during 2020 and 2021 was so dramatic (48% in less than two years) that, even after the multi-year slump, prices are still more than 20% above pre-Covid levels. That boom was primarily driven by ultra-low borrowing costs, with the one-year mortgage rate falling to 2.2%. In data going back to the early 1960s, there's never been a time when interest rates have come close to being that low, and we might not see them again in our lifetime. Many would argue that prices were pumped up so much during that period that they might need to fall further (or at least languish for a little longer) for reality to catch up. Other costs of home ownership – such as rates, insurance and maintenance – have also increased sharply, while the policy backdrop hasn't been friendly to investors. Net migration has declined much more than expected, after hitting record highs in 2023. To use a technical phrase, it's fallen off a cliff. New migrant numbers (of working age) were comfortably above 100,000 a year 18 months ago, but they've dropped to fewer than 10,000 today. Apart from the Covid-era when the borders were closed, that's the lowest since the 2010-13 period, and before that 2000-01. For many of those who are still here, job security is a concern. The unemployment rate has been steadily increasing for three years, and it's sitting at 5.1%. Apart from one quarter during the unusual Covid period, that's the highest in more than eight years. People are reluctant to make major financial commitments when they don't feel completely safe in their jobs. Unemployment is expected to push a little higher, so a shift in sentiment could be unlikely until late this year or into next year. Nobody can accurately say where house prices will go from here. Plenty of people incorrectly predicted declines in early 2020, and just as many expected a recovery to be under way by now. Reserve Bank forecasts suggest prices will grow by 4.2% annually over the coming three years. That's below the long-term average (which has been 5.7% since 1990) but it's slightly above inflation, GDP and population growth expectations. All these headwinds, as well as a high number of listings, have swung the power balance in favour of buyers, including those looking for a first home. That's unlikely to change in the near term, which is good news in many ways. I'm not sure if any of us should be hoping for another boom. A stable-but-sluggish period for house prices could be a more desirable outcome for the economy, and society overall. For the first time in a long while, the housing market is working more for buyers than sellers, and that rebalancing might be exactly what we need. Mark Lister is investment director at Craigs Investment Partners. The information in this article is provided for information only, is intended to be general in nature, and does not take into account your financial situation, objectives, goals, or risk tolerance. Before making any investment decision, Craigs Investment Partners recommends you contact an investment adviser.
Daily Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Bank a tidy profit by swerving the Big Four: Our shares guru's expert advice on the smaller fish financial firms to invest in - including one that's up 80% since she first tipped it two years ago
Banks are a bit of a hobby horse for me. My first job in journalism involved international banking and finance; I was a banking correspondent for years, and I've maintained a keen interest in the industry ever since. It's been a bumpy ride, particularly for the so-called Big Four – Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and NatWest. Pummelled by the Global Financial Crisis, prodded and poked by online start-ups and squeezed by years of low interest rates, mainstream lenders disappointed investors for years.
