Latest news with #GlobalMacroOutlook
Business Wire
8 hours ago
- Business
- Business Wire
KKR Releases 2025 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KKR, a leading global investment firm, today released its 2025 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook by Henry McVey, CIO of KKR's Balance Sheet and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation (GMAA). In 'Make Your Own Luck,' McVey and his team explain why, despite the turbulent start to 2025 and additional expected market drawdowns, they remain positive in their outlook. They note their strong belief that attractive financial conditions, a global easing cycle, ongoing productivity gains, and lack of net issuance—coupled with compelling, powerful investment themes—will drive this cycle both further and longer than many think. And, while they acknowledge that the low rate, low volatility beta trade that defined 2015-2021 is now over, they advocate that investors stay the course by leveraging the team's long-standing Regime Change framework and investing behind priority macro trends. Against this backdrop, the team suggests investors 'make their own luck' by tilting towards assets that rely on collateral-based cash flows, can adjust to rising input costs, and/or enhance operational improvement—like control positions with operational upside in Private Equity, senior slices of Credit amid wide dispersions, or Real Assets with long-dated, inflation-linked contracts that can reprice alongside rising nominal GDP. The report also examines what has remained constant and what has shifted in the team's thinking since their 2025 Outlook published last December. Consistent with prior thinking, the team believes we continue to see a stellar technical backdrop, capital markets responding favorably to a global easing cycle, and sustained positive earnings momentum despite tariff-induced uncertainty. McVey and his team also share updated asset allocation picks and pans, refreshed expected return forecasts, and new model portfolios they believe are well-positioned to outperform in the continued Regime Change environment. They make several out-of-consensus calls, which include their beliefs that: The technical picture remains much better than investors think—net issuance of IPOs, levered loans, and high yield remain at levels not seen since 2009. We are in a productivity cycle similar to the 1990s, which will drive markets longer and higher than consensus. Lower taxes, higher margins, and higher quality earnings all suggest U.S. markets are reasonably valued vs. overvalued. Europe will perform better for longer, amid a stronger euro, more defense and infrastructure spending, continued interest in renewables, deeper capital markets, and less onerous cross-border restrictions. The oil market will move into larger surpluses over the next six to 12 months, driving WTI oil prices back down to $60 per barrel on average in the second half of 2025 and 2026. The unemployment rate will stay lower for longer relative to prior cycles, even against a modest payroll backdrop with gains increasingly concentrated in just a few sectors. Private Equity will remain a top-performing asset class as it continues to benefit from dispersion and control, allowing investors to lean into operational improvement and accretive M&A activity. There is increased opportunity for private investment in Infrastructure due to government retrenchment amid fiscal constraints, energy transition needs, and geopolitical competition. In addition, the report details the GMAA team's updated views on global economic forecasts, inflation, interest rates, currencies, and capital markets. The report also addresses key investor queries on topics such as how Europe can improve its competitive positioning, the team's outlook for expected returns, and their latest thinking on relative value in Credit and the potential direction of individual retirement accounts (401(k), annuities, etc.). Links to access this report in full as well as an archive of Henry McVey's previous publications follow: To read the full report, click here. For an archive of previous publications please visit About Henry McVey Henry H. McVey joined KKR in 2011 and is Head of the Global Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk team. Mr. McVey also serves as Chief Investment Officer for the Firm's Balance Sheet, oversees Firmwide Market Risk at KKR, and co-heads KKR's Strategic Partnership Initiative. As part of these roles, he sits on the Firm's Global Operating Committee and the Risk & Operations Committee. Prior to joining KKR, Mr. McVey was a Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Learn more about Mr. McVey here. About KKR KKR is a leading global investment firm that offers alternative asset management as well as capital markets and insurance solutions. KKR aims to generate attractive investment returns by following a patient and disciplined investment approach, employing world-class people, and supporting growth in its portfolio companies and communities. KKR sponsors investment funds that invest in private equity, credit and real assets and has strategic partners that manage hedge funds. KKR's insurance subsidiaries offer retirement, life and reinsurance products under the management of Global Atlantic Financial Group. References to KKR's investments may include the activities of its sponsored funds and insurance subsidiaries. For additional information about KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE: KKR), please visit KKR's website at For additional information about Global Atlantic Financial Group, please visit Global Atlantic Financial Group's website at The views expressed in the report and summarized herein are the personal views of Henry McVey of KKR and do not necessarily reflect the views of KKR or the strategies and products that KKR manages or offers. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment decision or any other decision. This release is prepared solely for information purposes and should not be viewed as a current, past or future recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This release contains forward-looking statements, which are based on beliefs, assumptions and expectations that may change as a result of many possible events or factors. If a change occurs, actual results may vary materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date such statements are made, and neither KKR nor Mr. McVey assumes any duty to update such statements except as required by law.
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
KKR Releases 2025 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook
Henry McVey: Stay the Course and 'Make Your Own Luck' NEW YORK, July 16, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KKR, a leading global investment firm, today released its 2025 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook by Henry McVey, CIO of KKR's Balance Sheet and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation (GMAA). In "Make Your Own Luck," McVey and his team explain why, despite the turbulent start to 2025 and additional expected market drawdowns, they remain positive in their outlook. They note their strong belief that attractive financial conditions, a global easing cycle, ongoing productivity gains, and lack of net issuance—coupled with compelling, powerful investment themes—will drive this cycle both further and longer than many think. And, while they acknowledge that the low rate, low volatility beta trade that defined 2015-2021 is now over, they advocate that investors stay the course by leveraging the team's long-standing Regime Change framework and investing behind priority macro trends. Against this backdrop, the team suggests investors 'make their own luck' by tilting towards assets that rely on collateral-based cash flows, can adjust to rising input costs, and/or enhance operational improvement—like control positions with operational upside in Private Equity, senior slices of Credit amid wide dispersions, or Real Assets with long-dated, inflation-linked contracts that can reprice alongside rising nominal GDP. The report also examines what has remained constant and what has shifted in the team's thinking since their 2025 Outlook published last December. Consistent with prior thinking, the team believes we continue to see a stellar technical backdrop, capital markets responding favorably to a global easing cycle, and sustained positive earnings momentum despite tariff-induced uncertainty. McVey and his team also share updated asset allocation picks and pans, refreshed expected return forecasts, and new model portfolios they believe are well-positioned to outperform in the continued Regime Change environment. They make several out-of-consensus calls, which include their beliefs that: The technical picture remains much better than investors think—net issuance of IPOs, levered loans, and high yield remain at levels not seen since 2009. We are in a productivity cycle similar to the 1990s, which will drive markets longer and higher than consensus. Lower taxes, higher margins, and higher quality earnings all suggest U.S. markets are reasonably valued vs. overvalued. Europe will perform better for longer, amid a stronger euro, more defense and infrastructure spending, continued interest in renewables, deeper capital markets, and less onerous cross-border restrictions. The oil market will move into larger surpluses over the next six to 12 months, driving WTI oil prices back down to $60 per barrel on average in the second half of 2025 and 2026. The unemployment rate will stay lower for longer relative to prior cycles, even against a modest payroll backdrop with gains increasingly concentrated in just a few sectors. Private Equity will remain a top-performing asset class as it continues to benefit from dispersion and control, allowing investors to lean into operational improvement and accretive M&A activity. There is increased opportunity for private investment in Infrastructure due to government retrenchment amid fiscal constraints, energy transition needs, and geopolitical competition. In addition, the report details the GMAA team's updated views on global economic forecasts, inflation, interest rates, currencies, and capital markets. The report also addresses key investor queries on topics such as how Europe can improve its competitive positioning, the team's outlook for expected returns, and their latest thinking on relative value in Credit and the potential direction of individual retirement accounts (401(k), annuities, etc.). Links to access this report in full as well as an archive of Henry McVey's previous publications follow: To read the full report, click here. For an archive of previous publications please visit About Henry McVey Henry H. McVey joined KKR in 2011 and is Head of the Global Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk team. Mr. McVey also serves as Chief Investment Officer for the Firm's Balance Sheet, oversees Firmwide Market Risk at KKR, and co-heads KKR's Strategic Partnership Initiative. As part of these roles, he sits on the Firm's Global Operating Committee and the Risk & Operations Committee. Prior to joining KKR, Mr. McVey was a Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Learn more about Mr. McVey here. About KKR KKR is a leading global investment firm that offers alternative asset management as well as capital markets and insurance solutions. KKR aims to generate attractive investment returns by following a patient and disciplined investment approach, employing world-class people, and supporting growth in its portfolio companies and communities. KKR sponsors investment funds that invest in private equity, credit and real assets and has strategic partners that manage hedge funds. KKR's insurance subsidiaries offer retirement, life and reinsurance products under the management of Global Atlantic Financial Group. References to KKR's investments may include the activities of its sponsored funds and insurance subsidiaries. For additional information about KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE: KKR), please visit KKR's website at For additional information about Global Atlantic Financial Group, please visit Global Atlantic Financial Group's website at The views expressed in the report and summarized herein are the personal views of Henry McVey of KKR and do not necessarily reflect the views of KKR or the strategies and products that KKR manages or offers. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment decision or any other decision. This release is prepared solely for information purposes and should not be viewed as a current, past or future recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This release contains forward-looking statements, which are based on beliefs, assumptions and expectations that may change as a result of many possible events or factors. If a change occurs, actual results may vary materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date such statements are made, and neither KKR nor Mr. McVey assumes any duty to update such statements except as required by law. View source version on Contacts Lauren McCranie212-750-8300media@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Time of India
09-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India stock market towers 245 times over Pakistan's: A gulf too wide to ignore
As tensions flare between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor, equity markets in both countries have reacted—but not equally. While India's benchmark Nifty50 has slipped 1.4% since the Operation Sindoor on May 6–7, Pakistan's KSE-100 has plunged nearly 10% during the same period. Since the April 22 attack in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 26 tourists, Pakistan's benchmark index is down 13.5%, while the Nifty has declined just 0.57%. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Bank Owned Properties For Sale In Hosaena (See Prices) Foreclosed Homes | Search ads Search Now Undo The divergent market reactions reflect a fundamental reality: India's stock market is nearly 245 times larger than Pakistan's and significantly more resilient to geopolitical shocks. India ranks among the world's top five equity markets with a total market capitalisation of around $5 trillion. Pakistan's Karachi Stock Exchange, by comparison, stands at just $20.36 billion, according to Bloomberg data. Beyond size, India's market also has greater depth. It hosts over 5,000 listed companies, supported by robust participation from mutual funds, retail investors, and systematic investment plans (SIPs). This domestic base helps absorb volatility. Pakistan's market, with just over 500 listed companies, is far more sentiment-driven and illiquid—making it more vulnerable to sharp drawdowns during political instability. Live Events India's broader macroeconomic strength adds another layer of resilience. The country holds $688 billion in forex reserves, compared to Pakistan's $15.25 billion. Meanwhile, India's GDP is projected to double from $2.1 trillion in 2015 to $4.27 trillion by 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, Moody's Ratings this week trimmed India's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 6.3%, down from 6.5%, citing rising global uncertainty and trade restrictions. The agency also flagged the escalating geopolitical tensions with Pakistan as a potential risk to growth. Still, Moody's expects India to rebound to 6.5% growth in 2026, following an estimated 6.7% expansion in 2024. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025–26, the agency highlighted that businesses and investors globally are adjusting to shifting geopolitical dynamics—raising costs and tempering expansion plans. In this environment, geopolitical risks—particularly in South Asia—remain a headwind. However, the disparity in market responses shows that while India is not immune, it is far better equipped to weather the storm. However, the ratings agency has retained India's growth forecast at 6.5% for 2026, following an estimated 6.7% expansion in 2024. Also read: Mutual fund SIP inflows hit record high of Rs 26,632 crore, up 3% in April In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26 (May Update), Moody's pointed to a broader global slowdown driven by heightened US policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and financial market volatility. The agency noted that global investors and businesses are recalibrating their strategies in response to shifting geopolitical dynamics, which is likely to increase costs and weigh on investment and expansion decisions. Geopolitical risks, particularly in South Asia, are emerging as a potential drag on India's growth prospects. The recent surge in India-Pakistan tensions has added to Moody's list of concerns.
Economic Times
09-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India stock market towers 245 times over Pakistan's: A gulf too wide to ignore
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel As tensions flare between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor, equity markets in both countries have reacted—but not India's benchmark Nifty50 has slipped 1.4% since the Operation Sindoor on May 6–7, Pakistan's KSE-100 has plunged nearly 10% during the same period. Since the April 22 attack in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 26 tourists, Pakistan's benchmark index is down 13.5%, while the Nifty has declined just 0.57%.The divergent market reactions reflect a fundamental reality: India's stock market is nearly 245 times larger than Pakistan's and significantly more resilient to geopolitical ranks among the world's top five equity markets with a total market capitalisation of around $5 trillion. Pakistan's Karachi Stock Exchange, by comparison, stands at just $20.36 billion, according to Bloomberg size, India's market also has greater depth. It hosts over 5,000 listed companies, supported by robust participation from mutual funds, retail investors, and systematic investment plans (SIPs). This domestic base helps absorb volatility. Pakistan's market, with just over 500 listed companies, is far more sentiment-driven and illiquid—making it more vulnerable to sharp drawdowns during political broader macroeconomic strength adds another layer of resilience. The country holds $688 billion in forex reserves, compared to Pakistan's $15.25 billion. Meanwhile, India's GDP is projected to double from $2.1 trillion in 2015 to $4.27 trillion by 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).However, Moody's Ratings this week trimmed India's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 6.3%, down from 6.5%, citing rising global uncertainty and trade restrictions. The agency also flagged the escalating geopolitical tensions with Pakistan as a potential risk to Moody's expects India to rebound to 6.5% growth in 2026, following an estimated 6.7% expansion in 2024. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025–26, the agency highlighted that businesses and investors globally are adjusting to shifting geopolitical dynamics—raising costs and tempering expansion this environment, geopolitical risks—particularly in South Asia—remain a headwind. However, the disparity in market responses shows that while India is not immune, it is far better equipped to weather the the ratings agency has retained India's growth forecast at 6.5% for 2026, following an estimated 6.7% expansion in its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26 (May Update), Moody's pointed to a broader global slowdown driven by heightened US policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and financial market volatility. The agency noted that global investors and businesses are recalibrating their strategies in response to shifting geopolitical dynamics, which is likely to increase costs and weigh on investment and expansion risks, particularly in South Asia, are emerging as a potential drag on India's growth prospects. The recent surge in India-Pakistan tensions has added to Moody's list of concerns.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
The Citizen
07-05-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
SA's economic growth outlook growing increasingly dim
South Africa is not alone, either: the outlook for global economic growth is also being cut due mainly to the US' import tariffs. South Africa's economic outlook is growing increasingly dim as various organisations and analysts start cutting their economic growth outlook for the country to only 1.5%. Moody's Ratings and the Bureau for Economic Research both cut South Africa's economic growth outlook to 1.5% from 2% expected previously, while Prof William Gumede, associate professor at the Wits School of Governance writes that National Treasury's gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 1.9% in 2025 is based on optimistic assumptions. According to Moody's Global Macro Outlook 2025-26, a global growth slowdown is underway, with policy uncertainty adding risks. The agency warns in its report that tariff increases on countries and high sectoral tariffs on products, such as steel and aluminium, will weigh on global trade and investment decisions, with considerably negative growth consequences for most G20 economies. 'Given these developments, we have cut our forecast for global growth sharply to 1.9% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026 from our forecast in February, which called for a more modest slowdown to 2.5%. Policy uncertainty weighs on a global economy that was already slowing. 'Uncertainty surrounding global economic policies is likely to take a toll on consumer, business and financial activity. Despite a pause and reduction in some tariffs, policy uncertainty and trade tensions, especially between the US and China, are likely to dampen global trade and investment, with consequences across the G20. ALSO READ: Experts say no way SA can achieve economic growth of 3% this year Grim global and South African economic growth outlook Moody's now expects that US GDP growth will cool to 1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, and China's real GDP growth to slow to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. The agency also cut growth forecasts for Canada, Mexico, Germany, France, Italy, the UK, Australia, Korea, Japan, India, Indonesia and South Africa. For South Africa, Moody's cut its real GDP projections by 0.2% from its February projection to 1.5% and is more optimistic than the IMF, which expects South Africa's economy to grow by only 1% this year and only 1.3% in 2026. Meanwhile, Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the BER, said at a BER conference on Tuesday that South Africa's growth is also affected by tensions in the government of national unity (GNU) and concerns that it will not hold and function effectively after the dispute about Budget 2025 almost caused it to collapse. However, she said the biggest source of uncertainty at the moment is around tariff policy. 'The risk of sudden policy changes remains real, such as Monday's foreign film tariff announcement. We only expect price increases and product shortages to affect US consumers from mid-June.' She also pointed out that real consumer spending, which is necessary for economic growth, accelerated from 0.7% in 2023 to 1.0% in 2024, but consumers are still worse off in real per capita terms. 'Alarmingly, the 0.7% growth in consumer income in 2024 was virtually fully derived from the roughly R40 billion two-pot withdrawals since 1 September, and despite the two-pot boost in 2024, real per capita disposable income was down 1.3% compared to 2022 and 2.4% compared to 2018.' ALSO READ: No significant economic growth expected for SA over next three years Factors that can affect global and local economic growth De Schepper said global factors that could warrant a change in the BER's baseline forecast include severe financial market instability that triggers a real economic downturn, a sudden reversal in the oil price and continuing geopolitical turmoil in the Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle East and the Taiwan Strait. She said domestic factors include the return of sustained and/or higher stages of load shedding, negative shocks to South Africa's production capacity and/or export potential, the possibility of social unrest, protests and strike action and revisions to historic GDP data. ALSO READ: Absa foresees economic growth of 2.1%, but Trump and budget can disrupt it Are we a 1% economy? De Schepper says the BER made a significant downward adjustment to its near- and medium-term real GDP forecast, with some members of the team arguing for an even lower forecast, questioning why we are not a permanent 1%-growth economy as we have been for the last fifteen years or so. 'It is irresponsible to build a forecast on hope. During the second half of 2024, there was a real sense of urgency around structural reform, sentiment was improving, and the consumer benefited from some (temporary) windfalls. 'Our forecast of the time was not based on hope, but on the expectation of some crucial puzzle pieces finally falling into place. Unfortunately, some puzzle pieces are now sliding from the table once again (slow progress on structural reform, consumer windfalls turning into headwinds), and some pieces have been forcefully thrown on the floor by Trump.' However, she said, it is also irresponsible to overreact when there is so much uncertainty. 'While slow, there is still some progress on the structural reform front. Load shedding and other structural constraints on the local economy should continue to ease, albeit not as fast as we anticipated. 'Indeed, when it comes to exports and investment, our level is so depressed that a little goes a long way to lift overall GDP growth. South African consumers have proven to be resilient before, but will continue to be tested.' ALSO READ: World Bank has simple answer to improve South Africa's economic growth Treasury too optimistic about South African economic growth Gumede writes in an occasional paper for the Inclusive Society Institute titled 'Going for growth: Structural reforms needed for South Africa's economic recovery', that Treasury's forecast fails to reflect the country's ongoing structural obstacles to growth, including its public service, governance, policy and debt woes. 'If South Africa stays on its current economic policy path or becomes more economically populist and if it is unable to strike a compromise deal with the US, it is unlikely to get even the 1.9% GDP economic growth predicted by Treasury in the 2024/2025 Budget. 'Treasury predicts real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2025, an upward revision from the 1.7% projected in the 2024 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). Over the medium term, economic growth is projected to average 1.8%. The past decade has seen the economy grow only 0.8% per year, while the country's population has been growing at 1.5% per year.' Gumede says the Treasury growth forecasts assume higher investment, recovery in household consumption, declining inflation, moderately rising employment, improving household balance sheets and easing structural constraints on growth. However, he believes Treasury's growth forecast appears to be overly optimistic. ALSO READ: IMF's bad news about economic growth for SA, thanks to Trump tariffs Treasury not considering continued obstacles to economic growth 'Treasury does not appear to consider the continued structural obstacles to growth, such as the continued lack of state capacity due to public service, state-owned entities (SOEs), infrastructure and municipal failures caused by corruption and incompetence and the many anti-growth policies. 'High levels of business regulation also undermine growth. Moreover, global uncertainties threaten economic growth. US President Donald Trump unleashed widespread global tariffs, including 30% against South Africa, and has cut development funding to the country.' Gumede says the US withdrawal of development aid, which included significant amounts for state, public, and civil society institutions, left a big hole in South Africa's public finances. 'Instead of infrastructure-led growth, South Africa got consumer and welfare-led growth, which is not sustainable. It is not possible to change the country's growth path without tackling the structural inhibitors such as corruption, incompetence, state, SOE, DFI and municipal failure and anti-growth, anti-business policies. 'A new growth path must be based on boosting infrastructure, creating a manufacturing mining processing complex, especially around critical minerals, an agriculture industrial complex, expanding renewable energy, establishing a biofuels industry, expanding SMEs and fostering new industries that South Africa lacks, but which the world needs. Such a new growth path has to be collaboratively led by government, private sector, civil society and professionals.'
