Latest news with #GlobalTradeUpdate
New Straits Times
09-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Global trade grows by US$300bil in 1H25 with uncertain outlook
GENEVA: Global trade grew by an estimated US$300 billion in the first half (H1) of 2025, despite showing a slower growth pace, the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report released Tuesday, reported Xinhua. In its latest Global Trade Update report, the UNCTAD warned that the global trade outlook remains uncertain due to persistent policy instability, geopolitical tensions, and signs of weakening global growth in the second half of the year. According to the report, global trade rose by about 1.5 per cent in the first quarter and was expected to grow by 2 per cent in the second quarter. The report noted that price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value, while trade volumes grew by just 1 per cent. Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter. Services trade remained the primary driver of growth, rising 9 per cent over the last four quarters. The report showed mixed trends in merchandise trade among major economies in the first quarter of 2025, with developed economies outpacing developing countries. The report attributed this to a 14 per cent surge in imports by the United States and a 6 per cent rise in exports from the European Union. Meanwhile, the United States has seen a widening trade deficit over the last four quarters, contributing to deepened trade imbalances. The report also highlighted the heightened risks of trade fragmentation brought by recent US tariffs, including a 10 per cent baseline tariff and additional duties on steel and aluminum. It warned that a further wave of unilateral actions could trigger trade tensions.
The Star
08-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Global trade grows by 300 bln USD in H1 with uncertain outlook: UN report
GENEVA, July 8 (Xinhua) -- Global trade grew by an estimated 300 billion U.S. dollars in the first half (H1) of 2025, despite showing a slower growth pace, the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report released Tuesday. In its latest Global Trade Update report, the UNCTAD warned that the global trade outlook remains uncertain due to persistent policy instability, geopolitical tensions, and signs of weakening global growth in the second half of the year. According to the report, global trade rose by about 1.5 percent in the first quarter and was expected to grow by 2 percent in the second quarter. The report noted that price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value, while trade volumes grew by just 1 percent. Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter. Services trade remained the primary driver of growth, rising 9 percent over the last four quarters. The report showed mixed trends in merchandise trade among major economies in the first quarter of 2025, with developed economies outpacing developing countries. The report attributed this to a 14 percent surge in imports by the United States and a 6 percent rise in exports from the European Union. Meanwhile, the United States has seen a widening trade deficit over the last four quarters, contributing to deepened trade imbalances. The report also highlighted the heightened risks of trade fragmentation brought by recent U.S. tariffs, including a 10 percent baseline tariff and additional duties on steel and aluminum. It warned that a further wave of unilateral actions could trigger trade tensions.
Scoop
13-05-2025
- Business
- Scoop
UN Warns Copper Shortage Risks Slowing Global Energy And Technology Shift
9 May 2025 In its latest Global Trade Update, released this week, UNCTAD describes copper as 'the new strategic raw material' at the heart of the rapidly electrifying and digitising global economy. But with demand set to rise more than 40 per cent by 2040, copper supply is under severe strain – posing a critical bottleneck for technologies ranging from electric vehicles and solar panels to AI infrastructure and smart grids. More than just metal ' Copper is no longer just a commodity,' said Luz María de la Mora, Director of the International Trade and Commodities Division at UNCTAD. Valued for its high conductivity and durability, copper is essential to power systems and clean energy technologies. It runs through homes, cars, data centres and renewable infrastructure. Yet developing new mines is a slow and expensive process, and fraught with environmental risks – often taking up to 25 years from discovery to operation. Meeting projected demand by 2030 could require $250 billion in investment and at least 80 new mining projects, according to UNCTAD estimates. The Democratic Republic of the Congo holds some of the world's largest copper reserves, yet most of the metal is exported, limiting the country's ability to benefit fully from this valuable resource. Uneven geography, unequal gains Over half of the world's known copper reserves are concentrated in just five countries – Chile, Australia, Peru, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Russia. However, much of the value-added production occurs elsewhere, particularly in China, which now imports 60 per cent of global copper ore and produces over 45 per cent of the world's refined copper, says the UN. This imbalance leaves many developing countries stuck at the bottom of the value chain, unable to fully benefit from their resources. 'Digging and shipping copper is not enough,' the report states. ' To move up the ladder, copper-rich developing countries must invest in refining, processing and manufacturing – this means strengthening infrastructure and skills, establishing industrial parks, offering tax incentives and pursuing trade policies that support higher-value production.' Tariff and trade barriers UNCTAD also highlights the challenge of tariff escalation, where duties on refined copper are relatively low – typically below two per cent – but can rise to as high as eight per cent for finished products like wires, tubes and pipes. These trade barriers discourage investment in higher-value industries and lock countries into roles as raw material suppliers, the report warns. To address this, UNCTAD is urging governments to streamline permitting, reduce trade restrictions, and develop regional value chains to help developing economies climb the industrial ladder. Scrappy solution With new mining projects facing long lead times, recycling is emerging as a vital part of the solution. In 2023, secondary sources accounted for 4.5 million tonnes – nearly 20 per cent of global refined copper output. The United States, Germany and Japan are the top exporters of copper scrap, while China, Canada and the Republic of Korea are major importers. 'For developing countries, copper scrap could be a strategic asset,' UNCTAD notes. 'Investing in recycling and processing capacity can reduce import dependence, support value-added trade and advance a more circular, sustainable economy.' Test case for critical materials Copper, UNCTAD says, is a likely 'test case' for how global trade systems handle rising demand for critical materials amid growing pressures. 'The age of copper has arrived…but without coordinated trade and industrial strategies, supply will remain under strain and many developing countries risk missing out,' the report concludes.
Zawya
17-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Global trade witnesses record expansion to $33trln in 2024
Global trade hit a record $33 trillion in 2024, expanding 3.7% ($1.2 trillion), according to the latest Global Trade Update by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which warns that while trade remains strong, uncertainty looms in 2025. The services sector drove growth, rising 9% for the year and adding $700 billion – nearly 60% of the total growth. Trade in goods grew 2%, contributing $500 billion. But looking ahead, new risks loom, including trade imbalances, evolving policies, and geopolitical tensions, stated the report. According to UNCTAD, the gap between developing and advanced economies is widening. Asia and Latin America remain key trade drivers, but growth has slowed in many advanced economies. South-South trade is holding up, yet Africa's intra-regional trade is shrinking, reversing gains. Meanwhile, trade between Europe and Central Asia has declined, reflecting shifting demand. Governments are expanding tariffs, subsidies, and industrial policies, reshaping trade flows. The US, European Union (EU) and others are increasingly tying trade measures to economic security and climate goals, while China is using stimulus policies to maintain export momentum, said the report. UNCTAD said industrial policies (long-term strategies to develop specific sectors) were reshaping key sectors like clean energy, technology and critical raw materials, risking competition distortion. The challenge in 2025 is to prevent global fragmentation - where nations form isolated trade blocs – while managing policy shifts without undermining long-term growth. The actions taken now by governments and businesses will shape trade resilience for years to come, it added.- TradeArabia News Service Copyright 2024 Al Hilal Publishing and Marketing Group Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Arab News
16-03-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Global trade hits record $33tr in 2024, growing by 3.7%: UNCTAD
RIYADH: Global trade reached a record high of $33 trillion in 2024, marking a 3.7 percent increase from the previous year, driven by an uptick in the services sector. According to the latest Global Trade Update from the UN Conference on Trade and Development, services drove growth, rising 9 percent for the year and adding $700 billion — nearly 60 percent of total exchange expansion. Meanwhile, trade in goods grew 2 percent, contributing $500 billion. 'This positive momentum is expected to continue into Q1 (first quarter) 2025, building on a global trade value of nearly $33 trillion in 2024,' the report said. UNCTAD's analysis highlighted a continued shift in global trade dynamics, with developing countries — particularly China and India — outperforming their developed counterparts. While many advanced economies faced exchange contractions, emerging markets sustained momentum, bolstered by strong exports and domestic demand. China's trade surplus expanded significantly in 2024, fueled by robust exports. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit widened, reflecting its growing reliance on imports. South-South trade, involving exchanges between developing economies, remained a key driver of global trade growth. Services trade booms Services trade outpaced goods trade in 2024, increasing by 9 percent and contributing approximately $700 billion to global exchange expansion. This sector's resilience contrasts with goods trade, which rose by just 2 percent, adding around $500 billion. The fourth quarter saw services trade maintain strong momentum, while goods trade growth decelerated. Tariffs and trade barriers Despite overall growth, UNCTAD warns of significant trade barriers. High tariffs continue to hinder market access for developing countries, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing. 'High import tariffs raise costs for businesses and consumers, potentially curbing growth and competitiveness,' the report said. It added that tariff escalation — where higher duties are imposed on processed goods than raw materials — remains a major obstacle to industrialization in developing economies. Agricultural exports from developing countries still face steep import duties, averaging nearly 20 percent under most-favored-nation treatment. Meanwhile, textile and apparel exports continue to be subjected to some of the highest tariff rates, limiting competitiveness. Uncertainty clouds 2025 Looking ahead, UNCTAD warned that mounting geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and protectionist policies could disrupt global exchange in 2025. The report identified several risk factors, including: Shifts in trade policy: Increasing protectionist measures, such as new tariffs targeting specific industries, may reshape global supply chains. Ongoing trade tensions: Major economies, including the US and China, continue to impose retaliatory tariffs, affecting global trade flows. Subsidies and industrial policies: Governments are prioritizing national industries, particularly green energy and critical minerals, which could impact international trade relations. Economic slowdown risks: Indicators such as declining demand for container shipping suggest potential trade contraction in the coming quarters. However, the analysis also noted potential tailwinds, including China's planned economic stimulus and the expected easing of global inflation, which could support trade expansion. Sectoral trade trends Trade growth varied significantly across sectors in 2024. Office equipment and pharmaceuticals saw above-average growth, while the energy sector faced a sharp decline. In the third quarter, agri-food, communication equipment, and transport surged, whereas apparel and extractive industries weakened. Global trade imbalances The report highlighted growing trade imbalances, with the US maintaining the world's largest trade deficit and China recording the highest surplus. The EU, which ran a deficit in previous years, returned to surplus in 2024, aided by shifts in energy trade. Bilateral trade imbalances, particularly between the US and China, remain significant, contributing to global economic uncertainty. As global trade enters 2025, policymakers face the challenge of balancing growth with rising protectionism. UNCTAD emphasized the importance of multilateral cooperation and strategic trade policies to sustain momentum and navigate emerging risks.
