Latest news with #Greenspan
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Navigating China's Economic Challenges: A Q&A with Scope Ratings' Dennis Shen
When People's Bank of China (PBOC) governor Pan Gongsheng outlined plans for a more accommodative monetary policy last September, he sparked a market rally. His decisive stance earned him the nickname of 'China's Greenspan', a reference to former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who famously slashed interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Fast forward several months and the PBOC's capacity to influence market expectations appears to be diminishing as the central bank faces the complex challenge of supporting economic activities through lower borrowing costs while stabilising the yuan to preserve market confidence. These at-times conflicting priorities are testing the central bank's capacity to maintain the same degree of effectiveness. Would you agree with those who have nick named the PBOC governor China's Greenspan? Comparisons to Alan Greenspan may be premature. Greenspan presided over the Great Moderation, overseeing comparatively-robust and stable growth and achieving moderate levels of inflation. By contrast, Pan took office in 2023 amid a structural economic slowdown and the longest run of deflationary forces since the 1960s (Figure 1). Figure 1. China faces persistent deflationary forces China consumer price inflation rate, % year on year Deflation risk derives from the structural transitions in China's economic growth model so are not of the PBOC governor's design. But as the governor brings to China some of the innovations of advanced economy central banks to deal with deflation, including large-scale asset purchases, he has to deliver results that stabilise China's economy before any comparison with Greenspan can be justified. The governor has delivered some policy easing to support the economy, countering low inflation and pursuing stabilisation of the embattled property sector. But very high and rising levels of public sector and corporate debt have created a real dilemma for the central bank. It cannot set about overly aggressive monetary easing without material concerns about creating asset-price bubbles and excess debt accumulation. If the governor can solve this apparent policy paradox and help pave the economy's path to lower but better-quality economic growth and stable debt, he might one day have a seat on the pantheon of central bankers. What Are Your Thoughts About China's Bond Rally? The PBOC is facing a relatively new challenge: increasing evidence of Japanification in the Chinese economy, i.e. very low inflation. Bearing in mind the global inflationary forces in play since 2021, China's grappling with unusually low inflation highlights the severity of domestic deflationary factors. This context has seen Chinese 10-year bond yields fall rapidly to near-record lows. The PBOC's response is complicated by the fact that deflation has not been persistent for more than a half century and also because the tools China is introducing are novel and untested – in China. Easing monetary policy while reining in market tendencies to price in the most severe economic scenarios has seen a comparatively inconsistent policy mix that has seen an intermittent bond-purchasing programme; on-again, off-again rate reductions; and occasional draconian policies such as the disciplining of certain regional banks for purchasing too many government bonds. How are the PBOC's actions affecting foreign investor sentiment? On one hand, ultra-low Chinese yields, a flattening yield curve and ongoing depreciation pressures on the renminbi are understandably alarming. Authorities are wary, as the one ending to the decades of the Chinese economic miracle they are keen to sidestep is any comparison with Japan's experience of recent decades: low nominal growth, low or negative yields and a weak currency. The PBOC wants its monetary policies to be correctly transmitted and to avoid monetary easing stretching much beyond what it has been announcing. On the other hand, even if monetary easing has run faster than planned, low yields may be welcome. Given the record levels of public debt and outstanding budgetary challenges, low rates could partially alleviate the challenging fiscal trajectory and support economic restructuring, thereby facilitating the sought-after soft landing. Plus, a weaker renminbi helps combat low inflation, so the low yields achieved via monetary easing, accelerating credit growth and ultimately depreciating the currency might prove strategically beneficial. Nevertheless, the PBOC's erratic easing announcements followed by tightening complicate policy signalling. A clearer communication strategy is needed as China transitions from opaque policymaking to greater transparency and market engagement. Foreign investors have been comparatively unphased by the PBOC interventions to date as real rates have stayed attractive and bond prices remain high. Global investors are accustomed to interventionist policies like QE so are unlikely to exit unless they are faced with direct capital restrictions. Balancing the US dollar-yuan exchange rate using monetary tools looks challenging. What is your observation of and outlook on the PBOC's moves? The PBOC is navigating a structurally slowing economy facing deflation threats while endeavouring to avoid asset bubbles and rising debt risks, even though growth came in better than economists had anticipated at 5.2% year-on-year in the last quarter. China is seeking to liberalise its capital markets but the PBOC is not accustomed to markets doing so much of the easing for it so it is rightly seeking to prevent monetary conditions from easing too quickly or by too much. In this context, the PBOC is targeting a guided and gradual loosening of monetary conditions through interest-rate cuts, balance-sheet policies and the currency. Strengthening communication following the example of developed market central banks could help temper market volatility and strengthen credibility. For a look at all of today's economic events, check out our economic calendar. Dennis Shen is the Chair of the Macro Economic Council and Lead Global Economist of Scope Group. The rating agency's Macroeconomic Council brings together the company's credit opinions from multiple issuer classes: sovereign and public sector, financial institutions, corporates, structured finance and project finance. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Navigating China's Economic Challenges: A Q&A with Scope Ratings' Dennis Shen Identify Superstar Stocks Like DoorDash Before the Crowd Why Nextracker Could Be the Next Big Money Outlier Buy Like Big Money: Bentley Systems Lifting Off Jump On Potential Highflyers Like Sportradar Early Strength for the Dollar After Higher Inflation
San Francisco Chronicle
05-07-2025
- Health
- San Francisco Chronicle
Asian and Pacific Islander teens face higher prediabetes risk, study finds
Asian and Pacific Islander adolescents who are overweight or obese are twice as likely to have prediabetes compared to their white counterparts, according to new research from Kaiser Permanente. Twenty-seven percent of Asian youths had prediabetes compared to 12% of white youths, according to the study, which was published this week in Diabetes Care. All youths in the study were overweight or obese. And there were significant differences in prediabetes rates among Asian subgroups: Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander youth were at highest risk (32%), followed by South Asian (31%), Filipino (28%), Chinese (26%) and Vietnamese (18%), the study found. The analysis is one of the first to break down prediabetes rates in Asian subgroups rather than grouping all Asians together as a single monolith, which many medical research studies typically do. The findings are important because they reinforce that some people are more likely to develop prediabetes — a condition where one's blood sugar level is higher than normal, but not high enough to be considered diabetes — than their peers, and should perhaps get tested more frequently or earlier to prevent it. 'We need to think about certain populations as being at higher risk, and maybe they need to be screened for prediabetes at a lower threshold,' said study co-author Dr. Louise Greenspan, a pediatric endocrinologist at Kaiser Permanente San Francisco Medical Center. 'We lump all adolescents into one category, and we'd love to be able to personalize things a little more.' Screenings also give doctors a chance to educate patients and their families about diabetes and talk to them about lifestyle factors that can help their health, she said. There is no standard recommendation for when adolescents should start getting screened for diabetes. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, the group of medical experts that issues recommendations for what age people should start getting screened for breast cancer and other diseases, does not have a recommendation on diabetes screenings for youths. The American Diabetes Association recommends screening for high-risk ethnic groups who are overweight. Kaiser screens all adolescents who are overweight, regardless of race or ethnicity. It's not clear why Asian youths are more likely than white youths to develop prediabetes, or why some subgroups of Asian youths are more prone than other subgroups. Some potential explanations could be differences in genetics, cultural factors and social determinants of health like income level and neighborhood — or a combination of all those things. 'We know genetics contribute to the risk of developing prediabetes and type 2 diabetes, but the environment that someone grows up in can push them over the edge,' Greenspan said. 'If they're living in a neighborhood where they don't have access to safe places to exercise, or their school doesn't have adequate physical education, or they live in a food desert … those all lead to less activity and more food intake than someone who lives in an environment where it's safe to ride their bike to meet friends in the park and come home to meals parents are able to resource that are plant-based.' The study included about 38,000 Kaiser Permanente Northern California members between ages 10 and 17 who were overweight (85th to 95th percentile BMI for their age) or obese (96th percentile or higher BMI for their age) at a pediatric visit between 2012 and 2019, and had a hemoglobin A1c test within a year of that visit. A1c measures one's average blood sugar level over the last three months. An A1c level between 5.7% and 6.4% is considered prediabetic. The findings add to an already established body of research showing that Asian adults are at a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes at a lower BMI than white adults. It's not entirely clear why, but some researchers have posited it may be because Asians tend to store more fat around abdominal organs, known as visceral fat, which may lead to heightened insulin resistance. This led to the American Diabetes Association in 2015 recommending that Asian adults get screened for diabetes at a BMI of 23 rather than a BMI of 25, which is the standard screening threshold for all adults.
Egypt Today
19-06-2025
- Business
- Egypt Today
Global investment slowing, drifting away from development priorities: UNCTAD Secretary-General
CAIRO - 19 June 2025: Global investment flows are showing signs of weakness and are increasingly shifting away from supporting sustainable development, especially in the world's most vulnerable economies, according to Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Rebecca Greenspan. Speaking at the launch of the World Investment Report 2025 in Cairo, Greenspan said the global foreign direct investment (FDI) figure of $1.5 trillion in 2024, reflecting a 4% headline increase, was inflated by conduit flows through a small number of European economies. When these flows are excluded, underlying global FDI actually fell by 11%, marking the second consecutive annual decline. 'Global investment is not just slowing, it's pulling away from development,' she warned. Greenspan cited persistent global challenges, including geopolitical tensions, rising trade barriers, mounting investor uncertainty, and tight financial conditions, all of which continue to suppress productive, long-term investment. The report notes contrasting regional trends: Africa saw a 75% surge in inflows, buoyed by stronger investment facilitation and a landmark project in Egypt, while Southeast Asia remained a hub for greenfield investment. In contrast, parts of Latin America and Western Asia saw stagnation or decline. Investment in SDG-related sectors fell sharply across most areas, particularly in infrastructure, water and sanitation, and agrifood systems. Only the health sector recorded a modest increase in project numbers. Project finance, a key tool for infrastructure development, dropped by 26% globally. Greenspan emphasized that low-income and vulnerable countries continue to receive only a small share of global investment, held back by structural challenges including weak infrastructure and political instability. She called for a reformed global investment framework that can better align capital with sustainable development needs. 'We must scale up sustainable finance, close the digital divide, and support countries in mobilizing private investment through new tools and better policies,' she said. 'The time to redirect investment toward building resilient, inclusive, and sustainable economies is now,' Greenspan concluded.
The Sun
04-06-2025
- Entertainment
- The Sun
New £500k fairytale playground with treehouses and wooden castle to open in the UK
A HUGE new £500,000 fairytale attraction with climbing frames and play forts is set to open in the UK. Brechin Castle Centre is currently home to a garden centre and country park. 5 5 And new plans have revealed the new kids playground set to open on the grounds. Designed by UK play specialists Greenspan, the 10m wooden castle will have rope bridges, slides and puzzles. Themed areas will include a "throne room" as well as an armoury, music parlour and magician's study. Kids will be able to spot a dragon on the tower as well. It says: 'The proposal is to remove the existing apparatus from the playpark and erect a play fort structure that provides visual and physical fun for children. "The play fort will be a timber structure with small rooms, bridge walkways, rope walkways, slides, puzzles, and visual interests.' Brechin Castle Centre marketing and events manager Susan Young told local media of the inspiration behind the new attraction. She explained: 'We wanted to create something truly magical, a place where children could become princesses, dragon trainers, wizards, or brave adventurers. 'It's not just a play structure; it's an escape into a world straight out of a storybook.' She also said that the castle was just the "first step" in their growth plans. Inside Ireland's 'magical' Disney castle with fairytale tower on sale for €7.5MILLION and it's minutes from the beach An official opening date and name of the attraction will be announced nearer the time but it is expected to open next month. Families have shared their excitement with one saying "this looks great for the kids". In the mean time, guests can visit the 70-acre country park which also has go-karts, splash park and sand pits. Crazy golf, pedal tractors, fairy trails and wooden sledge run rides are also on-site. 5 5 Kids can also hop on the Barrel train that runs twice a day around the park. Families can even take their own picnics although there is a food and drink shack. Also nearby is Brechin Castle, which dates back to the 13th century The next opening period for tourists is June 18 to July 20. The castle was put on the market back in 2021 for £3million, after being owned by the same family for nearly 400 years. In the mean time here is another fairytale playground in the UK, which is the largest play structure in the world. And we've round an award-winning attraction which is in the UK's biggest park. 5
Scottish Sun
04-06-2025
- Entertainment
- Scottish Sun
New £500k fairytale playground with treehouses and wooden castle to open in the UK
And where to find the world's biggest playstructure in the UK PLAYTIME New £500k fairytale playground with treehouses and wooden castle to open in the UK A HUGE new £500,000 fairytale attraction with climbing frames and play forts is set to open in the UK. Brechin Castle Centre is currently home to a garden centre and country park. Advertisement 5 A fairytale castle with slides and themed areas is opening in the UK Credit: Brechin Castle Centre 5 The unnamed attraction is set to cost £500k Credit: Brechin Castle Centre And new plans have revealed the new kids playground set to open on the grounds. Designed by UK play specialists Greenspan, the 10m wooden castle will have rope bridges, slides and puzzles. Themed areas will include a "throne room" as well as an armoury, music parlour and magician's study. Kids will be able to spot a dragon on the tower as well. Advertisement It says: 'The proposal is to remove the existing apparatus from the playpark and erect a play fort structure that provides visual and physical fun for children. "The play fort will be a timber structure with small rooms, bridge walkways, rope walkways, slides, puzzles, and visual interests.' Brechin Castle Centre marketing and events manager Susan Young told local media of the inspiration behind the new attraction. She explained: 'We wanted to create something truly magical, a place where children could become princesses, dragon trainers, wizards, or brave adventurers. Advertisement 'It's not just a play structure; it's an escape into a world straight out of a storybook.' She also said that the castle was just the "first step" in their growth plans. Inside Ireland's 'magical' Disney castle with fairytale tower on sale for €7.5MILLION and it's minutes from the beach An official opening date and name of the attraction will be announced nearer the time but it is expected to open next month. Families have shared their excitement with one saying "this looks great for the kids". Advertisement In the mean time, guests can visit the 70-acre country park which also has go-karts, splash park and sand pits. Crazy golf, pedal tractors, fairy trails and wooden sledge run rides are also on-site. 5 New slides will be connected to the towers Credit: Brechin Castle Centre 5 Kids will be able to climb between towers with rope bridges Credit: Brechin Castle Centre Advertisement Kids can also hop on the Barrel train that runs twice a day around the park. Families can even take their own picnics although there is a food and drink shack. Also nearby is Brechin Castle, which dates back to the 13th century The next opening period for tourists is June 18 to July 20. Advertisement The castle was put on the market back in 2021 for £3million, after being owned by the same family for nearly 400 years. In the mean time here is another fairytale playground in the UK, which is the largest play structure in the world. And we've round an award-winning attraction which is in the UK's biggest park. 5 The castle hopes to open by next month Credit: Brechin Castle Centre
