Latest news with #Guerra
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's tariffs are turning into a ‘mosaic' that will be ‘idiosyncratic,' Morgan Stanley says, projecting a $2.7 trillion haul over 10 years
President Donald Trump's tariffs are taking shape—and they're taking on a kind of color, too. If you look at the tariffs and assign different colors to each sector they touch, they start to look like a collection of different stones, even stained glass. They're turning into a 'mosaic.' That's the metaphor used by Monica Guerra, head of US Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. This is because they vary on both a country-by-country and a product-specific basis, even though Trump has ensured they are far-reaching in scope. This makes the overall impact 'more idiosyncratic,' Guerra wrote in a research note titled, 'Tariff Talk and Dollar Moves.' For example, Guerra noted 21% of global U.S. imports are exempted, whereas 30% of U.S. imports from the EU, 42% from Vietnam, and 64% from Malaysia are exempt. Then, reciprocal tariffs apply to 50% of goods imported from Japan and 30% from South Korea, and those are impacted by tariffs on autos and auto parts. These tariffs are being applied 'piecemeal,' with delayed starts, occasional backtracks, and new deals being struck. Guerra warned of unpredictable impacts across the global economy and projected tariff rates are likely to keep rising and remain elevated, even as the Trump administration weathers questions about their legality. Guerra's team also made a projection, calculated based off tariff collections over the last three months: The U.S. Treasury could collect as much as $2.7 trillion in tariffs over the next 10 years. From blanket tariffs to a more patchwork policy Since his return to office, President Trump has deployed a complex array of country-specific and product-targeted tariffs. According to Guerra's analysis, the average effective tariff rate on imports has been around 16% in 2025—five times higher than the 3% average when Trump took office in January. Though the White House originally attempted sweeping, universal tariffs—including a 10% blanket rate—the policy has grown more piecemeal due to both legal challenges and strategic considerations. While overall tariffs have risen, the effects are far from uniform. The granular nature of U.S. trade policy under Trump is apparent in the varying exemptions granted to different trading partners. Morgan Stanley noted the sharp departure from the blanket tariffs of previous periods, making the market's assessment of winners and losers more challenging. Macroeconomic implications: Dollar weakness and inflation risks Compounding the uncertainty is a significant weakness in the U.S. dollar, Morgan Stanley noted, which has dropped 10% year-to-date, making imports more expensive for American consumers and companies. Guerra's team warned the combination of a weaker dollar and rising tariffs could translate directly into higher import prices, fueling inflation and potentially squeezing corporate margins unless costs are passed on to consumers. While inflation had shown some signs of moderating—helped in part by lower energy prices and inventory build-ups ahead of new tariffs—markets are now pricing in a rebound: Inflation expectations for the next 12 months have climbed to 3.43%, according to zero-coupon swaps, roughly matching the levels seen in April, when Trump announced his tariff plans in more detail as part of 'Liberation Day.' Revenues rise—but at what cost? Behind the policy maneuvering lies a powerful fiscal incentive. Since the onset of Trump's latest round of reciprocal and universal tariffs this spring, monthly tariff revenues have soared to an average of $22.3 billion—an all-time high compared to the typical $5 billion per month average for the previous five years. This is the average related to the $2.7 trillion projection, but strategists caution tariff rates and compliance remain highly dynamic and unpredictable, making any long-term projection subject to 'considerable uncertainty.' As the U.S. doubles down on tariffs while navigating currency volatility, the effects will be anything but homogeneous. The technology sector, uniquely positioned with nearly 58% foreign revenue exposure, could stand to benefit from dollar weakness, even as other sectors face margin pressure from rising costs. Meanwhile, small and mid-sized firms, as well as those reliant on complex global supply chains, may struggle with operational and pricing challenges that are still rippling through the economy. Morgan Stanley said the current environment is 'particularly fluid and dynamic' as legal and political battles over trade continue to play out. As Trump's tariff regime grows more intricate, markets, businesses, and consumers alike are bracing for an era of heightened unpredictability—and potentially, record-shattering government revenue, paid for by American consumers through higher tariffs. For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Metro
13-07-2025
- Metro
Distracted dad left gun in reach of toddler, 2, who shot himself
A two-year-old boy is in the hospital after accidentally shooting himself in the arm with a gun his father left out. 27-year-old father, Oscar Guerra, was arrested and charged with one felony count of child abuse after his son grabbed the gun from the couch in Phoenix, Arizona. The boy's mother told police it's not the first time Guerra had left a gun out, and she had warned him to keep his guns secured. Guerra reportedly took out the gun to clean it, but began watching videos on his computer and forgot about it. Police were called around 10.40 pm on July 9, and found Guerra and his son, who was injured with a gunshot to his left arm. The tot was taken to the hospital and has non-life-threatening injuries, police said, but Guerra is facing a prison sentence for the accident. He said he saw his son walk into the room, but thought he had gone back to his bedroom when he heard a gunshot. Guerra is out of jail without bail, but is facing nine years in prison if convicted. The shooting comes months after another two-year-old shot his twin with a gun he found at home. It's not clear how the toddler got access to the weapon while at home on Robin Hood Lane in Hampton, Georgia. 'It was so scary, a terrible feeling', neighbour Melanie Pressley told local TV news station Fox 5. 'We knew something terrible had happened.' For hours, police searched inside and outside of the white bungalow, set back from the road, where emergency service vehicles were parked in a row. Toy cars and tricycles were lined up near swings in the garden where children might otherwise be playing. Such incidents are more common than you might think in the US, where guns are a leading cause of unintentional injury among children. More Trending Five-year-old boy, Brooks Thomas Wilson, died after shooting himself with a gun he found while playing in his parents' bedroom last August. A single shot struck him in the head. His obituary said Brooks 'lived his life to the fullest and always wore his heart on his sleeve'. The month before, Nakyzi Odums shot himself in the chest in a Walmart parking lot, where his parents had left him in the car while they went to buy fireworks. He died three days later at hospital in Douglas, Georgia. Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@ For more stories like this, check our news page. MORE: Maga faithful warn Trump 'we won't fall in line' over Epstein investigation MORE: Teenager killed grandad after inhaling laughing gas while driving MORE: Elderly British tourist mugged and robbed in Majorca
Chicago Tribune
09-07-2025
- Chicago Tribune
Street-racing suspect ID'd in Round Lake Beach hit-and-run; ‘Conduct … like that of any other street gang, terrorizing our community'
Round Lake Beach police say they have identified the man who was street racing as part of an informal car club and then ran into a resident with his truck after being confronted. Police said they have issued an arrest warrant for Nathien X. Guerra, 19, on charges of leaving the scene of an accident and aggravated battery. Authorities said they have located and impounded the red Chevrolet pickup truck that Guerra was driving. Guerra had not yet been taken into custody on Wednesday, police said. He backed up into a 57-year-old man at about 8:20 p.m. Saturday in the 1200 block of Lotus Drive, police said. Police said that a pickup truck and a white Dodge Charger were street racing, and the resident went into the street to confront the pickup truck driver. The driver reversed into the man, striking him with either the side mirror or the fender area before driving away, according to police. The man suffered non-life-threatening injuries, officials said. Police Chief Ryan Rodriguez said in a statement released Wednesday that the vehicles involved may have been part of an unsanctioned car club. 'This issue has gone well beyond harmless car club gatherings and the conduct of those involved is like that of any other street gang, terrorizing our community and endangering lives,' he said. 'Our officers are committed to strictly enforcing all laws related to illegal car club gatherings and reckless driving and will continue to impound any vehicle found engaging in this activity, as permitted by law,' Rodriguez said. 'We have zero tolerance for actions that threaten the safety of our community.'
Daily Mirror
08-07-2025
- Sport
- Daily Mirror
Man Utd boss told 'hands off' as he got clear message from £87m target's family
Ruben Amorim is closing in on avenging one of Erik ten Hag's failed transfer targets during his time in charge of Manchester United after being told he was not for sale two years ago Manchester United are once more linked with Valencia's Javi Guerra, despite being knocked back with a clear hands off warning from the La Liga club two years ago. Erik ten Hag was enjoying his second full summer transfer window at Old Trafford at the time, desperate to further improve the Red Devils side he inherited after the departure of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer when he showed an interest in Guerra. The 22-year-old midfielder's £87million release clause reportedly caught the attention of the United top brass, who were contemplating activating it to bring the Spaniard to Old Trafford. However, Valencia insisted that they held no intentions of cashing in on their wonderkid, who initially rose through the youth system of Villarreal before a 2019 move, signing his first professional contract two years later. Their sporting director Miguel Angel Corona told the Mail at the time: "We are fully aware that we have a player with enormous potential for the future and the ability to perform at a good level now. That is why the club have decisively moved him up to the first team in recent months. It is not in our plans to sell him to any club." He added: "For us, the emergence of Javi Guerra has not been a surprise. We have been aware of what he is capable of for a long time, we have been helping him and demanding more from him every step of the way, from youth level to the elite. "He has to continue working in this way. We have to be cautious when making assessments about his level or how far he will be able to go, as he is a young player and has a long way ahead of him, but only he, with his day-to-day work, will determine where his limit is." Meanwhile, Guerra himself admitted in May 2023 that his family had urged him to remain at Valencia. He said: "They advise me to stay the same, not to change because all this has cost a lot of work and we have to continue like this." The news came as a big blow to Ten Hag, as well as Newcastle United's Eddie Howe, who was also said to have been monitoring the youngster's situation closely. United instead secured Mason Mount from Chelsea in a £55m deal, as well as Sofyan Amrabat on loan from Fiorentina. However, it now appears as though the Red Devils are once again in the running to secure Guerra's services. While United have looked to bolster their frontline thus far, with the addition of Matheus Cunha from Wolves and a pursuit of Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo, Ruben Amorim is also looking at strengthening the centre of the park. And as per reports in Italy, Guerra looks increasingly close to finally leaving behind the Spanish sunshine in favour of north west England. While his hefty release clause is still in place, United may look to negotiate a cheaper deal for the talent, given that they have already spent big this summer and have a number of other targets in place across the pitch. With Christian Eriksen departing and Casemiro's playing time at the Theatre of Dreams uncertain, Amorim could be looking at a younger squad base to adapt to his patented 3-4-3 system. And Guerra could certainly fit the bill as an excelling partner to Bruno Fernandes and Manuel Ugarte, as Kobbie Mainoo's own place in the starting XI is in question given he has struggled to play to Amorim's style. He impressed in La Liga last season, scoring three goals and providing three assists in 36 appearances for Valencia, who finished a respectable 12th in the standings. And with a struggling United finishing a record-low 15th in the Premier League, Amorim will be eager to find more stability and composure in the heart of midfield ahead of next season.
Metro
07-07-2025
- Sport
- Metro
Manchester United tracking Valencia midfielder but face competition
Manchester United are tracking Valencia midfielder Javi Guerra, but are not the only interested party and he is not set on leaving his current club. The 22-year-old has been a regular in the Valencia team over the last two seasons, already racking up 85 appearances for the La Liga side. The central midfielder was part of the Spain Under-21 side at the recent European Championship, scoring in the 3-1 defeat to England in the quarter-finals. He has also trained with the Spain senior squad. His performances for club and country have caught the eye, with multiple clubs linked with a move for the rising star. Italian publication Calcio Mercato report that Manchester United are 'close' to a deal for Guerra, although Spanish outlet Tribuna Deportivo reports that nothing is agreed yet. Wake up to find news on your club in your inbox every morning with Metro's Football Newsletter. Sign up to our newsletter and then select your team in the link so we can send you football news tailored to you. Valencia are planning to offer Guerra a new contract and he is waiting to see what the terms of that deal are before making a decision on his future. The Tribuna Deportivo report states that the midfielder wants to stay with Valencia, but they will clearly have to make him a competitive offer. Calcio Mercato previously reported that AC Milan are also interested in Guerra and have made contact with Valencia over a possible move. However, he is not their prime target for central midfield, with Bayer Leverkusen's Granit Xhaka at the top of their shopping list. Atletico Madrid are also fans of Guerra, making a move for him last summer which was unsuccessful, but their interest remains. Guerra is one of a number of players Manchester United have an eye on this summer, with the priority seemingly to strengthen in attack. Matheus Cunha has already arrived from Wolves, while a move for Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo is proving difficult to secure. More Trending Two bids have already been rejected by the Bees as the Red Devils fail to meet their £70m valuation of the Cameroon international. Talks continue and their is optimism that an agreement can be reached as Mbeumo is keen on the move to Old Trafford, but progress is slow. Departures are also proving tricky to achieve, with Manchester United wanting to get rid of a number of big names who have fallen out of contention under Ruben Amorim. Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Antony are all on the transfer lift, but it is difficult to find clubs willing to pay significant fees for them and to offer them the wages they receive at Old Trafford. MORE: Why Manchester United failed in Victor Osimhen pursuit as he chooses next club MORE: Martin Zubimendi – the 'next Xabi Alonso' who can win Arsenal the Premier League MORE: Chelsea send transfer warning amid interest in forgotten £23m star
