Latest news with #HCOB
LBCI
24-07-2025
- Business
- LBCI
Eurozone business activity growth hits 11-month high in July: PMI data
Business activity in the eurozone increased for a seventh consecutive month in July, with the pace of expansion reaching an 11-month high, according to a closely watched survey released on Thursday. The HCOB Flash Eurozone purchasing managers' index (PMI), published by S&P Global, registered a figure of 51.0 this month, up from 50.6 in June. Any reading above 50 indicates growth, while a figure below 50 shows contraction. AFP
Yahoo
24-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Eurozone growth surprises in July: Is the worst really over?
Economic activity in the eurozone rose more than expected in July, signalling a stronger start to the third quarter and easing concerns that trade tensions would drag on the region's recovery. The Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) – a closely watched gauge of business conditions – rose from 50.6 to 51.0 in July, hitting its highest level since August 2024 and topping market expectations of 50.8. Much of the rebound came from the services sector, which continues to lead the bloc's recovery. The services PMI rose to 51.2 from 50.5, beating expectations of 50.7 and marking the fastest expansion since January. Manufacturing, while still contracting, showed signs of stabilisation. The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 from 49.5, the most optimistic print in three years, edging closer to the neutral 50 threshold. Although factory new orders declined again, the pace slowed and overall production neared equilibrium. Businesses responded to stronger activity and steadier order books by hiring more staff. At the same time, cost pressures eased. The pace of inflation dropped to a nine-month low and remained below the historical average. Economists note steady progress and fading inflation risks Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), struck a cautiously upbeat tone. 'The eurozone economy appears to be gradually regaining momentum. The recession in the manufacturing sector is coming to an end, and growth in the services sector accelerated slightly in July,' he said. He added that Hamburg Commercial Bank's GDP Nowcast, which incorporates PMI data, points to 'robust economic growth' in the third quarter. For the European Central Bank, signs of slowing inflation in services are likely to be welcomed, even if headline pressures persist. 'There is good news for the ECB, as the disinflation trend has continued in the closely watched service sector,' de la Rubia said. He noted that the stronger euro and US tariffs are likely to exert further downward pressure on prices in the coming months. Related 'Best year ever': UniCredit delivers record earnings, raises 2025 outlook EU member states adopt retaliatory hit list in response to US tariffs Germany edges forward, France lags behind Regional data continued to reveal diverging trends. Germany recorded a slight increase in output for the second month running, fuelling hopes of a broader recovery. 'We see increasing signs of a recovery in the manufacturing sector,' said de la Rubia, citing supportive policy measures such as more favourable depreciation rules introduced by Berlin on 1 July. In France, activity contracted once again, though at the slowest pace in the current 11-month downturn. 'The latest HCOB Flash PMIs from France are neither fish nor fowl,' said Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. 'While momentum has been trending upward since the beginning of the year, the index remains below the critical 50-point threshold.' Eurozone equities rally amid looming US-EU trade deal Hopes for a looming US-EU trade deal, which could lock in a 15% tariff on European exports to the US, lifted investor sentiment on Thursday, fuelling a rally in European equities as markets looked past fears of harsher trade barriers. The STOXX 50 rose nearly 1%, while the broader STOXX 600 gained 0.7%, reflecting renewed confidence across the region. Among standout performers, Deutsche Bank surged over 6% after reporting a better-than-expected second-quarter profit, reversing last year's loss. BNP Paribas also positively surprised, rising 3% after beating forecasts on both revenue and earnings. Meanwhile, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton slipped almost 2%, with investors bracing for a potential decline in quarterly sales as headwinds continue to weigh on the luxury sector. In currency markets, the euro held steady at 1.1765 against the dollar, as all eyes turned to the European Central Bank. The ECB is widely expected to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% when it announces its latest policy decision later in the day.
Euractiv
24-07-2025
- Business
- Euractiv
Eurozone growth hits one-year high despite Trump's tariffs
Economic activity across the eurozone grew to the highest levels in almost a year this month, a business survey found on Thursday, amid signs that Germany's long-suffering industries could be recovering despite Donald Trump's punishing tariffs. The eurozone's provisional composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures overall activity in manufacturing and services across the single currency area, rose from 50.6 to 51.0 between June and July – an eleven-month high that pushed the index further above the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction. Germany, the bloc's largest economy, continued to expand, although its rate of growth slowed slightly from 50.4 to 50.3. Activity in France, the eurozone's second-biggest economy, also rose to an eleven-month high, but remained in contraction territory at 49.6. 'The eurozone economy appears to be gradually regaining momentum,' said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), which compiles the index together with S&P Global. 'Germany is playing a key role here and, together with other countries, has been able to more than offset the weakness in France,' he added, noting that 'French industry must also regain its footing' for the bloc's manufacturers to 'return to solid growth in the long term'. De la Rubia also noted that 'even higher US tariffs should not fundamentally change' the recovery in German manufacturing, which has been boosted by government pledges to increase investments in infrastructure and defence by up to €1 trillion over the next decade. Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminium, and cars have inflicted severe pain on German manufacturers – especially its export-dependent auto sector, which is already reeling from weak demand and fierce competition from Chinese electric vehicle makers. The US is Germany's top car export destination, with 450,000 vehicles valued at roughly €21 billion sent across the Atlantic in 2024, according to the US commerce department. Uncertainty in France, meanwhile, has been compounded by Prime Minister François Bayrou's controversial draft budget proposal, which was presented to lawmakers last week and aims to cut €44 billion in net government expenditure in 2026. Jonas Feldhusen, junior economist at HCOB, said France's economy is likely to struggle regardless of whether Bayrou's proposal is eventually approved by the country's deeply divided parliament. 'Should an agreement on the austerity package be reached, it would reduce disposable income for many households – posing clear downside risks for domestic demand and especially for the services sector,' Feldhusen said. 'Conversely, failure to reach a budget deal could further escalate political uncertainty.' (mm)
Euronews
24-07-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Eurozone growth surprises in July: Is the worst really over?
Economic activity in the eurozone rose more than expected in July, signalling a stronger start to the third quarter and easing concerns that trade tensions would drag on the region's recovery. The Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) – a closely watched gauge of business conditions – rose from 50.6 to 51.0 in July, hitting its highest level since August 2024 and topping market expectations of 50.8. Much of the rebound came from the services sector, which continues to lead the bloc's recovery. The services PMI rose to 51.2 from 50.5, beating expectations of 50.7 and marking the fastest expansion since January. Manufacturing, while still contracting, showed signs of stabilisation. The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 from 49.5, the most optimistic print in three years, edging closer to the neutral 50 threshold. Although factory new orders declined again, the pace slowed and overall production neared equilibrium. Businesses responded to stronger activity and steadier order books by hiring more staff. At the same time, cost pressures eased. The pace of inflation dropped to a nine-month low and remained below the historical average. Economists note steady progress and fading inflation risks Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), struck a cautiously upbeat tone. 'The eurozone economy appears to be gradually regaining momentum. The recession in the manufacturing sector is coming to an end, and growth in the services sector accelerated slightly in July,' he said. He added that Hamburg Commercial Bank's GDP Nowcast, which incorporates PMI data, points to 'robust economic growth' in the third quarter. For the European Central Bank, signs of slowing inflation in services are likely to be welcomed, even if headline pressures persist. 'There is good news for the ECB, as the disinflation trend has continued in the closely watched service sector,' de la Rubia said. He noted that the stronger euro and US tariffs are likely to exert further downward pressure on prices in the coming months. Germany edges forward, France lags behind Regional data continued to reveal diverging trends. Germany recorded a slight increase in output for the second month running, fuelling hopes of a broader recovery. 'We see increasing signs of a recovery in the manufacturing sector,' said de la Rubia, citing supportive policy measures such as more favourable depreciation rules introduced by Berlin on 1 July. In France, activity contracted once again, though at the slowest pace in the current 11-month downturn. 'The latest HCOB Flash PMIs from France are neither fish nor fowl,' said Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. 'While momentum has been trending upward since the beginning of the year, the index remains below the critical 50-point threshold.' Eurozone equities rally amid looming US-EU trade deal Hopes for a looming US-EU trade deal, which could lock in a 15% tariff on European exports to the US, lifted investor sentiment on Thursday, fuelling a rally in European equities as markets looked past fears of harsher trade barriers. The STOXX 50 rose nearly 1%, while the broader STOXX 600 gained 0.7%, reflecting renewed confidence across the region. Among standout performers, Deutsche Bank surged over 6% after reporting a better-than-expected second-quarter profit, reversing last year's loss. BNP Paribas also positively surprised, rising 3% after beating forecasts on both revenue and earnings. Meanwhile, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton slipped almost 2%, with investors bracing for a potential decline in quarterly sales as headwinds continue to weigh on the luxury sector. In currency markets, the euro held steady at 1.1765 against the dollar, as all eyes turned to the European Central Bank. The ECB is widely expected to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% when it announces its latest policy decision later in the day.
Economic Times
24-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Gold flat as easing trade tensions offset boost from soft dollar
Gold prices held steady on Thursday after a sharp drop in the previous session, as easing trade tensions dented demand for safe-haven assets, overshadowing support from a weaker dollar. ADVERTISEMENT * Spot gold was flat at $3,388.49 per ounce, as of 0029 GMT, after dropping 1.3% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $3,495.90. * The U.S. dollar index fell to a more than two-week low against its rivals, making greenback-priced gold less expensive for other currency holders. * Signalling progress on tariffs, U.S. President Donald Trump struck a trade deal with Japan that lowers tariffs on auto imports and spares Tokyo from punishing new levies on other goods in exchange for a $550 billion package of U.S.-bound investment and loans. * The European Union and the United States are nearing an agreement on a similar trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports, while waiving duties on some items, according to officials from the European Commission. ADVERTISEMENT * Risk sentiment in the wider financial markets rose on the back of progress in trade talks and hopes that more deals could be in the offering. * Data showed U.S. existing home sales fell more than expected in June, suggesting the housing market slump could be deepening as higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty keep potential buyers on the sidelines. ADVERTISEMENT * Focus now shifts to Thursday's weekly jobless claims numbers and S&P Global's flash PMI data to gauge economic health ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision next week. * Markets widely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged next week. Odds for a September reduction stand at about 63%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. ADVERTISEMENT * Spot silver was flat at $39.28 per ounce, platinum fell 0.1% to $1,410.47 and palladium slipped 0.3% to $1,273.98. DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0500 Japan Chain Store Sales YY June 0645 France Business Climate Mfg, Overall July 0715 France HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI July 0730 Germany HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI July 0800 EU HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI July 0830 UK Flash Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI July 1000 UK CBI Business Optimism Q3 1215 EU ECB Refinancing Rate, Deposit Rate July 1230 US Initial Jobless Clm 19 July, w/e 1345 US S&P Global Mfg, Svcs, Comp PMI Flash July 1400 US New Home Sales-Units June. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
