Latest news with #HRRR
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Minnesota derecho threat: 100 mph winds, widespread damage possible
Minnesota derecho threat: 100 mph winds, widespread damage possible originally appeared on Bring Me The News. Severe weather is expected to redevelopment in the Dakotas Monday and speed across southern Minnesota — and it could be in the form of a derecho. What's a derecho? It's a widespread, long-lived wind storm that can produce "destruction similar to the strength of tornadoes," according to NOAA's formal definition. By definition, a derecho's swath of straight-line wind damage spans at least 240 miles. In advance of the dangerous weather, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) upgraded the threat for severe weather to enhanced and moderate risks in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Not only that, but the SPC says a derecho is "likely," with potential gusts along its path exceeding 75 mph. Sign up for our BREAKING WEATHER newsletters Renowned storm chaser and meteorologist Reed Timmer says there is potential for 100 mph wind gusts along the derecho's path. Fellow meteorologist Matthew Cappucci agrees that 100 mph winds are possible. The HRRR model hints at storms erupting in western North Dakota by around lunchtime and then charged rapidly to the east, southeast. In this outcome, storms would enter western Minnesota around 5-6 p.m. and then race towards eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, by 10 p.m. Wind damage would likely be widespread in the HRRR model's outcome, as the model's wind gust swath solution shows potential for gusts to exceed 75 mph all along the line's path across southern Minnesota. The NAM 3km model has a similar evolution of storm development and track. The NAM model's wind gust swath projection indicates potential for the derecho to produce 90 mph winds. The RRFS model also has a similar evolution and track. "As storms develop across the Dakotas, they should move eastward pretty quickly and form into a line with bowing segments. Some of the HiRes guidance shows discrete cells with long UH tracks, so tornadoes and hail are also threat, mainly across western Minnesota," says the National Weather Service. The "UH tracks," otherwise known was updraft helicity tracks, indicate where the strongest updrafts (powerful storms that can rotate) could occur. The HRRR, RRFS and NAM models are all producing significant updraft helicity tracks. The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities is advising Minnesotans to "monitor the weather closely later today, and be prepared to seek shelter in a sturdy structure if warnings are issued for your location." This story was originally reported by Bring Me The News on Jul 28, 2025, where it first appeared. Solve the daily Crossword
India Today
24-07-2025
- Climate
- India Today
Could AI solve the weather prediction dilemma? Countries rush to find out
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolutionises various aspects of our daily lives, accurate local weather prediction is also now on the radar. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Global Systems Laboratory (GSL) in the US has prepared a new regional weather forecast system, innovative AI-powered system provides highly localised forecasts in the range of 1 to 6 hours. It delivers fine-grained, timely predictions essential for localised weather the first of its kind developed by NOAA, HRRR-Cast represents a major step in integrating artificial intelligence into environmental modelling. Built as a data-driven counterpart to NOAA's renowned High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, HRRR-Cast aims to maintain comparable forecast accuracy while delivering results faster and at lower computational costs. HRRR-Cast is developed under the umbrella of NOAA's Project EAGLE (Experimental Artificial Intelligence Global and Limited-area Ensemble forecast system). By leveraging a comprehensive three-year dataset generated by the physics-based HRRR model, the AI system learns to enhance forecasting techniques. The project is a collaborative effort involving NOAA's GSL, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA).PREDICT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTSOne of HRRR-Cast's key innovations is its ability to produce ensemble forecasts using AI-driven methods such as diffusion ensembles generate multiple forecast scenarios, helping improve predictions for severe weather events. Early testing has shown promising results in capturing the dynamics of changing weather patterns, which is crucial for timely HRRR-Cast showcases the power of artificial intelligence, researchers emphasize that it is not meant to replace traditional physics-based the goal is a hybrid approach that combines AI's computational efficiency with the reliability of physics-driven simulations, potentially transforming the future of weather breakthrough is part of NOAA's broader initiative to integrate AI technologies into meteorological research, supported by the NOAA Center for Artificial Intelligence (NCAI) and partnerships with industry leaders like Google. Photo: Reuters EUROPE LEADING THE CHARGE IN GLOBAL AI WEATHER PREDICTIONThe US is not the only country making such advancements; several countries and organisations are advancing the field of AI-based weather forecasting by developing models that operate primarily at global scales, with some exploring regional applications akin to the HRRR-Cast AI-driven systems utilise cutting-edge machine learning architectures to improve forecast accuracy, efficiency, and the handling of extreme weather prominent example is GraphCast, developed by Google DeepMind in the UK. Utilising Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and trained on ECMWF's ERA5 reanalysis data, GraphCast produces global forecasts up to 10 days ahead at approximately 25 km it offers higher accuracy than traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models like ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and runs much faster, completing forecasts in minutes on a single TPU. NOAA's Project EAGLE builds on GraphCast by fine-tuning it with operational data, improving practical AND OTHER COUNTRIES CATCHING UPHuawei's Pangu-Weather, a Chinese initiative, employs a 3D Earth-specific transformer architecture for forecasting up to seven days. It excels in predicting tropical cyclone tracks and extreme events with high resolution and has also tested Pangu-Weather using its global data systems, demonstrating its potential as a competitive global alternative that balances computational speed with FourCastNet from the US adopts a vision transformer model for high-resolution weather forecasts of up to seven days. Designed for GPU scalability, it supports both global and experimental regional forecasting, offering versatility similar to researchers have incorporated FourCastNet in their AI-driven forecasting investigations, adapting it to their global ECMWF contributes through the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), which integrates AI models based on transformer architectures into its existing forecasting pipelines. AIFS complements traditional NWP like the IFS with faster, data-driven predictions and encourages regional AI innovation through initiatives such as the AI Weather China's FengWu, developed by the Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, provides high-accuracy medium-range global forecasts. With a transformer-based model trained on extensive reanalysis data, FengWu emphasises scalable operational use and aligns with global trends toward efficient, AI-enhanced DOES INDIA STAND?India is also in the advanced stages of developing its own AI-based weather forecasting model. Institutions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) are actively integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques into both research and operational frameworks. These technologies are being applied to monitor and predict Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP), a key factor in forecasting cyclone intensity. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is also using AI and ML to correct biases in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs. To accelerate the development of indigenous forecasting systems, the government is providing dedicated funding support. Additionally, the Ministry has established a virtual center focused on AI, ML, and Deep Learning (DL) at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. advertisementThis center is leading the effort to develop AI/ML-based applications specifically designed for localized weather and climate systems focus on improving forecast accuracy, efficiency, and extreme weather handling through advanced machine learning architectures, reflecting a worldwide trend toward smarter, faster weather prediction methods, now advancing at both global and regional scales. - EndsTune InMust Watch
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Supercells again threaten severe weather in Minnesota on Sunday
Supercells again threaten severe weather in Minnesota on Sunday originally appeared on Bring Me The News. Sunday could turn in another round of severe weather in Minnesota, with areas that were hit hard early Saturday once again at risk for large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm watch for eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota at 9:05 a.m., and the watch is in effect until 2 p.m. Tornadoes, hail up to two inches in diameter, and winds up to 70 mph are possible. The morning storms are expected to be the first of two rounds of potentially severe weather in Minnesota today, with more explosive storm development in northwest Minnesota is expected once the cap breaks after 4 p.m. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the second round of storms could feature supercells capable of producing tornadoes, very large hail and winds up to 75 mph. Sign up for our MINNESOTA WEATHER newsletters More storms could develop along a cold front to the southwest — in the Dakotas — and move to the east-northeast late Sunday night into Monday morning. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with those, but a strong cap over central and southern Minnesota could limit how far east the storms remain strong. Here's how the HRRR model simulates the radar from 10 a.m. Sunday to 8 a.m. Monday. The NAM model shows a similar evolution, and notice how the storms in southern Minnesota struggle to maintain as they approach the Twin Cities. That's a factor of the models picking up on the strong cap that will be in place. More storms are possible in southeastern Minnesota in Monday, followed by potential for heavy rain in southern Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal boundary stalls near the Minnesota-Iowa story was originally reported by Bring Me The News on Jun 22, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
More scattered showers and storms
Rain chances looks slightly lower for Acadiana but scattered showers and storms are still in the forecast with rain chances at 50%. A few storms could produce heavy rains and gusty winds too. Otherwise, the weather stays hot and steamy with temperatures into the upper 80s with a heat index around 100°. Heavy storms could be more widespread on Friday and starting earlier in the day. The HRRR model shows heavy storms moving through much of the area after 9:00 am tomorrow. More scattered storms are in the forecast throughout the Father's Day Weekend. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Wx Worries: Keep an eye on the rain gauge
SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – There is some good news and some bad news in our weather for the rest of the week. The bad news is that we will see numerous rounds of scattered thunderstorms during the next several days. The good news is that the threat of severe weather will remain low, although we may have to worry about flooding in a few spots. Severe weather worries? A fairly weak upper-level disturbance will be easing through the southern plains during the next several days and will take advantage of some very warm and moist air to squeeze out occasional rounds of thunderstorms. While a few storms could be rather strong, any severe weather issues will be isolated at best. Our main worry this week could become flash flooding in some of the heavier downpours of rain. The morning run of the HRRR model shows that we could see scattered areas that pick up two to four inches of rain from now through Wednesday night. With the lack of any obvious signs of a more organized severe weather threat, I will keep my level of severe weather concern at 3. That basically means that the risk of severe weather is very low, but it is not zero. The 7-day rainfall potential from the Weather Prediction Center shows that most of the area will see 2 to 3' of rain during the next week. This is what you should expect to see. Again, hi-res models show that parts of our area could get that amount and more just in the next 36 hours, so don't be shocked if you get much more. Any Tropical worries? Today's 7-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center still indicates that we will likely not see any tropical development in the Atlantic Basin during the next week. Long-range models continue to show that the tropics could stay quiet for the next two weeks. There is still quite a bit of Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic. Models show that it's doubtful that much of this will make it to the ArkLaTex during the next 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
