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Shafaq News
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Shafaq News
Redrawing the map: How Iran–Israel war is reshaping the Middle East
Shafaq News/ Since the Hamas-led Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023, the Middle East has experienced an unrelenting chain of upheavals. What began as a sudden and devastating incursion into Israeli territory evolved into a regional conflagration, drawing in state and non-state actors, shaking the core of long-standing alliances, and dismantling the fragile stability that once defined the post-Arab Spring order. At the center of this transformation stand two arch-rivals: Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The escalation that erupted in June 2025 between Israel and Iran is not an anomaly, but the culmination of years of covert hostilities, diplomatic friction, and strategic miscalculations. The events now unfolding in open warfare—including cross-border missile strikes, drone swarms, and targeted assassinations—are radically reshaping the Middle East's power dynamics and redrawing the region's strategic map. For decades, Iran and Israel conducted their confrontation through proxy wars, espionage operations, and cyberattacks. Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen became arenas of indirect competition. Israel systematically targeted Iranian positions in Syria and covertly sabotaged elements of Tehran's nuclear and military infrastructure, while Iran, through its so-called "Axis of Resistance," leveraged Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi factions to pressure Israeli and American interests. This dynamic persisted until the tectonic rupture of October 2023. Hamas' surprise attack on Israel—aided, according to Israeli and Western intelligence assessments, by Iranian logistical and strategic backing—reignited full-scale war in Gaza and set the stage for broader regional confrontation. Israel's overwhelming military response in Gaza led to tens of thousands of casualties, prompting Iran-aligned actors to escalate operations from Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. By early 2024, Israel and Iran had entered a new phase: one of sustained, direct, though still largely deniable attacks. Israeli airstrikes intensified against Iranian commanders in Syria and Iraq, while suspected Mossad operations targeted nuclear scientists and IRGC personnel deep within Iranian territory. Iran, in turn, increased its support to regional players and expanded its drone and missile programs, preparing for a scenario where deterrence might fail. That failure came on June 13, 2025, when Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, striking multiple Iranian nuclear and military sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Tehran. The operation resulted in the deaths of senior IRGC commanders, nuclear experts, and political figures. Iran's airspace was sealed, and retaliatory planning began immediately. 'This is not a spontaneous conflict,' said Dr. Haitham al-Hiti, professor of political science at the University of Exeter. 'It's part of a broader regional restructuring—starting with Hezbollah assassinations, now moving through Iran's command structure, and possibly reaching Iraq and Lebanon.' Iran's counter-operation, dubbed True Promise 3, marked a turn with Tehran directly fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli territory. Civilian and military targets were hit in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, and the Gush Dan area. Israeli casualties surpassed two dozen, while Iran reported more than 200 fatalities from the initial strikes. Beyond the destruction, what sets this confrontation apart is its regional resonance. Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar launched urgent diplomatic initiatives. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned that the conflict could 'drag the entire region into the fire,' and began intensive phone diplomacy with key Arab and Iranian leaders. 'Israel's aggression could ignite a devastating regional war,' Erdogan said, noting the potential for refugee flows, economic collapse, and the collapse of security arrangements in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Saudi Arabia, historically cautious in its dealings with Iran, sought to reclaim its role as a balancing force. A diplomatic source told Shafaq News, 'Riyadh is seeking to reclaim its place as a regional anchor, stepping into a mediation role once held by Qatar and Oman.' Yet these efforts have yielded little. The collapse of traditional deterrence and the erosion of international diplomatic credibility have allowed the military logic to dominate. The Muscat channel between Tehran and Washington was suspended. UN efforts were paralyzed by US veto power and a lack of consensus among major powers. 'The UN doesn't have the freedom to act without US approval,' said Lebanese analyst George Alam. 'That makes any international initiative vulnerable to paralysis.' Meanwhile, Iran has framed its retaliation as part of a broader realignment. 'These focused and retaliatory operations will continue until the Zionist entity is eliminated,' the IRGC declared after confirming the death of Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi, head of its Intelligence Organization. Egyptian expert Mounir Adeeb emphasizes that the conflict has exposed the fragility of the global system, 'Major powers, led by the United States, were direct enablers of the Israeli strike,' he said. 'They turned a blind eye to violations of international law and allowed red lines to be crossed. The result was war.' Internally, Iran now faces the twin challenges of sustaining a long war and containing potential unrest. Kurdish movements in the northwest and Ahvazi activists in the southwest are reportedly organizing demonstrations amid the crisis. Israeli analysts speculate that continued strikes on Iranian infrastructure may be designed to exacerbate internal fractures. 'If Iran collapses internally or fragments,' warned Dr. al-Hiti, 'we could see the emergence of new secessionist waves—Kurdish independence, Ahvazi autonomy, even unrest in Iraq. That's how geopolitical maps change.' And while regional states seek to prevent such an outcome, the war has already forced governments to recalibrate. Iraq has condemned the use of its airspace by Israeli forces. Armed factions aligned with Tehran have threatened to target US bases if Washington intervenes. The Houthis have escalated strikes on Israeli interests in the Red Sea. Hezbollah has declared its full support for Iran. The consequences are not limited to military strategy. Oil prices have surged. International flights have been suspended across several countries. Diplomacy has stalled. Most importantly, a new regional paradigm is taking shape—one defined not by US-led alliances or post-ISIS stability, but by direct state conflict, multipolar competition, and the return of mass-scale confrontation. As the missiles continue to fall, one thing is increasingly clear: the Middle East is undergoing a strategic reordering. Whether this leads to a new balance of power or deeper fragmentation remains uncertain. What is certain, however, is that the rules have changed—and so has the map.
Shafaq News
17-06-2025
- Politics
- Shafaq News
From proxy war to open conflict: The collapse of Israel–Iran deterrence
Shafaq News/ The long-standing shadow war between Israel and Iran has now entered its most dangerous phase. The transition from covert strikes and proxy skirmishes to direct missile exchanges across national borders marks a collapse of regional deterrence frameworks that had—however tenuously—held for over a decade. This dramatic rupture became undeniable when Israeli forces launched Operation Rising Lion, a large-scale assault on Iranian soil targeting nuclear facilities and senior Revolutionary Guard figures. Iran responded within hours with True Promise 3, unleashing hundreds of missiles and drones on Israeli cities, including Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Petah Tikva. 'This is not a spontaneous conflict,' says Dr. Haitham al-Hiti, a political scientist at the University of Exeter. 'It's part of a broader regional restructuring—starting with Hezbollah assassinations, now moving through Iran's command structure, and possibly reaching Iraq and Lebanon.' In this new phase, neither Israel's military supremacy nor Iran's rhetorical threats succeeded in deterring the other. Both sides crossed long-standing red lines, especially the taboo against direct state-to-state missile warfare. Lebanese analyst George Alam underscores the strategic risks. 'Saudi Arabia is conducting wide-reaching communications with Washington, Tehran, and Europe to push for a temporary truce,' he notes, 'but the UN can't move freely without US approval—making any initiative vulnerable to obstruction.' While diplomatic channels stall, the battlefield speaks louder. Iran's missile response struck both military and civilian targets. Israeli officials confirmed damage to civilian shelters and key infrastructure. Iran, in turn, suffered the loss of senior IRGC leaders, nuclear scientists, and civilians. This breakdown in mutual restraint is not just tactical—it's deeply structural. 'Iran will not stop the war now,' says Saudi analyst Mohammed Hayoudi. 'The Israeli strike was massive, and it coincides with structural shifts in Syria, Israel's rising influence, and Washington's renewed presence in the region.' These dynamics suggest that deterrence no longer functions as a stabilizing mechanism but rather as a catalyst for escalation. The former logic of "mutual hesitation" has been replaced by a race to impose facts on the ground. Dr. Ramadan al-Badran, a Washington-based political analyst, points to a disturbing new phase. 'Missiles are now hitting civilian and economic infrastructure, not just military sites. This points to a breakdown of mutual deterrence and suggests all parties are waiting for exhaustion before even considering negotiations.' In strategic terms, deterrence has given way to action without inhibition. This conflict is no longer about messaging or red lines; it's about reshaping the strategic environment through force. If deterrence was ever a balancing tool between these rivals, it no longer holds. And without a stabilizing doctrine or credible diplomatic fallback, the region may be entering a cycle of self-perpetuating escalation—one that could drag surrounding states into its vortex.
