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New York Times
30-06-2025
- Business
- New York Times
NHL contract grades: Term, not money, is the issue with Evan Bouchard and Oilers
Defenseman Evan Bouchard signs an four-year deal with a $10.5 million AAV with the Edmonton Oilers. Harman Dayal: Bouchard is a polarizing player. He produces points like a superstar (third-most of all NHL defensemen over the last two years, behind Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes) and has the underlying numbers of an elite No.1 defenseman, but critics argue that his offensive numbers are inflated from playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and that his defensive play is too inconsistent. Advertisement The truth probably lies somewhere in between. I don't buy that Bouchard is one of the best five to 10 defensemen in the league, but he's undeniably elite offensively and he's not as much of a defensive liability as some paint him out to be. Bouchard helped the Oilers to a plus-22 goal differential at five-on-five during the team's last two playoff runs. He also isn't just a McDavid/Draisaitl merchant. Bouchard drove 56 percent of shots and has outscored opponents 11-8 when both McDavid and Draisaitl were off the ice during the team's last two playoff runs. In other words, he decisively wins his even-strength matchups, even when No.97 and No.29 are on the bench. A $10.5 million AAV is totally reasonable for Bouchard. He's worth the money. However, the problem is that the Oilers only secured four years of term. This makes Bouchard UFA-eligible at 29, when a skyrocketing cap will allow him to net another sizeable raise. That's far from ideal for the Oilers, who would have been able to net surplus value if Bouchard's $10.5 million cap hit was locked in long-term. This feels like a win for Bouchard — he negotiated the flexibility of four years to setup an astronomical pay day in the future and he didn't have time to take a discounted cap hit to compensate for the shorter term. This is still a fine contract for the Oilers, but you would have liked to see them either get more years of term at this $10.5 million AAV, or get a slightly lower cap hit if Bouchard was insistent on only signing four years. Contract grade: B- Shayna Goldman: Bouchard is an elite offensive defenseman. He can be counted to spring into plays and move the puck around, and he has a bomb of a shot. But with all that dynamic skill comes the other side of his game. The risk of a player possessing the puck a lot is, there are more opportunities to lose it. When Bouchard's in control, he can be a real difference-maker. But sometimes, his decision-making can lead to crushing mistakes. That aspect of his game has improved a lot over the years, but recency bias doesn't help. As much as he helped thread the needle offensively this spring to help the Oilers return to the Cup Final, the lasting impression from Game 6 was an outright disaster. But in the big picture, the problem is that Edmonton doesn't always have the structure to mask those mistakes. And those lapses tend to turn into glaring goals against, due to the Oilers' unstable goalie play. Advertisement So pair that with the Oilers' cap situation, and his next contract was never going to be easy to navigate. Every contract has an element of risk versus reward to balance. In Bouchard's case, it's particularly high. His game-changing offense earned him a hefty raise. His market value, according to Dom Luszcsyszyn's model, is $15.7 million, which is a truly daunting number for Edmonton considering all that can go wrong for Bouchard. So coming in over $5 million below that leaves a lot more room for surplus value. The term is the key here, though. Because as much as Edmonton is banking on Bouchard, there's a big difference between taking a leap of this magnitude for four years versus eight years. It's much less of a commitment for a player whose long-term outlook is a lot tougher to project. His top comp is John Klingberg, who was elite at his height, but then steeply declined. Shea Theodore and Kris Letang project steadier long-term outlooks. But there really aren't any other close matches after that to add to the confidence in that path. But here's the thing: As much as Edmonton buys flexibility with a four-year outlook, these next four years are absolutely pivotal. This is the Oilers' best window in the Draisaitl and McDavid window. Together, the three will take up $37 million of the cap. Add in Darnell Nurse's contract and it jumps to more than $46 million. It stresses the need for very cost-effective supporting contracts around that core, plus a cost-effective goalie upgrade. No biggie, right? It doesn't necessarily mean the Oilers shouldn't have bet on Bouchard here. He is an important part of this team's window. But having two risky defensemen tying up almost $20 million in cap was always going to be a potential back-breaker. Contract grade: B+
New York Times
30-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL contract grades: Aaron Ekblad gets term but takes discount to stay with Panthers
Defenseman Aaron Ekblad signs an eight-year deal with a $6.1 million AAV with the Florida Panthers. Harman Dayal: Ekblad's passionate rant about what it meant to him to be a Florida Panther during the Stanley Cup Final foreshadowed his willingness to take a sweetheart discount. The 29-year-old's $6.1 million cap hit is a notable decrease from the $7.5 million AAV on his expiring contract. $6.1 million for a top-pairing right-shot defender is a very team-friendly number, especially in a skyrocketing cap climate where player salaries are rapidly inflating. It's only $600,000 higher than what Nic Hague, a 17-minute per game No. 4/5 defenseman, signed for in Nashville yesterday. It's less than what Alex Romanov re-signed for with the Islanders. Advertisement Ekblad isn't a perfect player. His foot speed can be an issue at times. Durability is often a question mark — he's missed more than 25 percent of the regular season in four of the last five years (though this year was PED suspension-related). But overall, he's a two-way beast on the blue line. Ekblad eats massive all-situations minutes and wins very tough matchup assignments. He contributes secondary offense and is rock-solid defensively in high-leverage minutes. And for the faults Ekblad does have, like his so-so foot speed, D partner Gustav Forsling's speedy defensive tools and puck-moving ability are the perfect stylistic complement to compensate. During this year's Stanley Cup win, Ekblad averaged 23:59 per game and scored 13 points in 19 games. The Panthers controlled nearly 58 percent of scoring chances and 61 percent of goals with Ekblad on the ice at five-on-five. The win here for Ekblad was securing eight years of term, which no other team could have offered. That security is significant considering all the injuries he's suffered in his career. Ekblad is guaranteed $48.8 million of total compensation on this contract. AFP Analytics projected that he would have gotten $7.8 million annually on a seven-year deal in free agency, which equates to a total of $54.6 million. That's an extra $5.8 million in total value compared to what Ekblad actually signed for, but the perfect fit in Florida clearly outweighed the modest bump in total compensation he would have received on the open market. Contract grade: A- Shayna Goldman: The Ekblad extension does two things: It adds more fuel to the tax advantage fire and it locks up another Panthers core player at a team-friendly price. Yes, Ekblad benefits from playing in the state of Florida. His take-home pay is better than it would be anywhere else, and the Panthers don't have to compensate extra for that. It's a part of the equation in the grand scheme of things. But that likely isn't the driving force behind this cost-effective contract. It's the fact that he gets to be a part of something really special in Florida. Advertisement Ekblad played through some tough seasons in Sunrise until the team became playoff-caliber, a contender, and now a back-to-back champion. The team has shown a complete and total commitment to winning, and that buy-in trickles down from ownership to the locker room. So, while other teams could offer more, why would he leave that? Maybe in different surroundings, he could put together all of his skills a little differently to become a star defenseman. But the payoff is staying with the team that drafted him first overall back in 2014, in a situation he clearly knows agrees with him, with a strong chance to win the Stanley Cup again. And that third ring wouldn't just be another championship, it would solidify the Panthers as a dynasty. That can be worth taking the hometown discount for. From the team perspective, the Panthers know how to get the best out of Ekblad. He may not be a true number one defenseman, but he is a key cog in Florida's top-four. Ekblad can provide steady defense in tough minutes, and while he isn't the driver of Florida's offense, he clicks well with the dynamic forward group there. Between all of his strengths and his flaws, he is a known commodity versus an unknown UFA that management has to hope will mesh with their group. Just think about how the team experimented last year to replace Brandon Montour, which eventually led to the Seth Jones trade. So that takes some of the risk out of a long-term signing, especially in this market, where a top-four right-handed defenseman was never going to come in at this price point. The wild card is how he ages. That was going to be a concern anywhere Ekblad signed long-term. And some of his comps show why there's reason to worry, from Christian Ehroff, Jason Garrison, to Brent Seabrook. Even if his game falls off a cliff down the line (which isn't projected to be the case — he is projected to be worth more than his $6.1 million cap hit in seven of eight years of this deal), it will be after Florida's window closes, anyway. On the flip side, some comps paint a much more encouraging picture, like Mattias Ekholm and Alex Pietrangelo. Ekholm may be the best blueprint for Ekblad, as a fellow number-two defenseman with a strong all-around game. Contract grade: A-
New York Times
12-06-2025
- Business
- New York Times
NHL trade grades: Rangers needed to unload Chris Kreider to move forward
By Shayna Goldman, Harman Dayal and Corey Pronman Anaheim Ducks get: F Chris Kreider, 2025 fourth-round draft pick (No. 104). New York Rangers get: Prospect F Carey Terrance (OHL Erie), 2025 third-round draft pick (No. 89) (No salary was retained on either side.) Harman Dayal: At first glance, trading away a popular, assumed-Ranger-for-life for a modest return isn't anything worth celebrating. If anything, losing Kreider is a painful, emotional goodbye for Rangers fans. However, the Rangers' cap situation was dire before this trade, and moving the full freight of Kreider's $6.5 million cap hit, especially coming off a down year, opens up much-needed breathing room. Advertisement Before the Kreider trade, New York only had $8.4 million of cap space, according to PuckPedia. The Rangers needed to move out at least one significant contract just to afford pending restricted free agents K'Andre Miller and Will Cuylle's next contracts (or to find a top-four replacement in the event Miller is traded), let alone any roster upgrades for a team that missed the playoffs. There weren't a ton of options to manufacture that cap space — many of New York's top players have trade protection — so getting Kreider off the books was important. It's a win that the Rangers got off Kreider's contract without having to retain salary, take money back or pay a sweetener. Kreider's obviously a highly accomplished player, but at 34 years old, coming off a 30-point season in which he played through back issues and illness, this didn't profile as an easy contract to trade. And let's not forget that teams weren't exactly jumping to bid for his services back in November when Chris Drury sent out a memo to the league's 31 other teams stating both Kreider and Jacob Trouba were available for trade. The Ducks need a healthier, rejuvenated version of Kreider to make this trade worth it. The biggest area where Kreider could help the Ducks is on the power play. Kreider has long been an elite net-front power-play scorer, and the Ducks' man advantage could certainly use a boost after ranking 32nd in the NHL this season. It isn't farfetched to think he could deliver 25 to 30 goals in 2025-26 if he rebounds. But given his age, there's always a chance that he never regains the top-six form he showed in previous years. That would be a scary thought, especially because his even-strength play-driving also fell considerably this season. With all that said, Anaheim's risk isn't too high here. The Ducks didn't surrender any premium assets, Kreider only has two years left on his deal and the Ducks still have more than $30 million in cap space this offseason. Advertisement Rangers grade: B+ Ducks grade: B Shayna Goldman: It's the end of an era in New York, with the Rangers trading one of their longest tenured players to Anaheim. The reality is that Kreider's value cratered over the last year. He still scored 22 goals, but only tallied eight assists in 68 games for a career-low 30 points — and it's not just because his linemates weren't converting on his passes. One of Kreider's strengths is that he is more than just an elite net-front presence on the power play. His speed and strength make him more of a threat at five-on-five. But this past year, he wasn't as effective off the rush and didn't drive to the net as often. Unlike in most seasons, there wasn't a lot of power-play production to make up for it. The problem is, it's not clear how much of that was due to his surroundings, age-related decline or a lingering back injury. Or whether that injury is exacerbating the aging effects, which can happen to players who take a lot of wear and tear in a net-front role. The Rangers have to be active this summer. The team can't afford to just run it back and hope for a bunch of rebounds after a disastrous 2024-25 season. One takeaway from the four teams that reached the conference finals this year is that general managers need to know when it's time to move on and start fresh, despite long-term connections to a player. Plus, Rangers management couldn't afford to extend key RFAs and improve with Kreider's contract on the books. So, clearing out his entire cap hit is a win for New York. The timing is interesting. The Rangers could have waited to see if there was interest from teams that missed out on the few high-end wingers set to hit the free-agent market. Maybe management didn't want any lingering questions this offseason and wanted a clean slate. But at what cost? Unless the team has corresponding moves in mind to add more high-end talent, then this was the first domino that had to fall to create space. The Ducks, on the other hand, have a ton of cap space, and management should leverage it to take on reclamation projects such as Kreider. Absorbing his $6.5 million cap hit won't stop management from taking big swings this summer. And it shouldn't be a problem next year, either, with $12 million coming off the books between Jacob Trouba and Radko Gudas. By the time the Ducks are truly competitive again, this contract will be over — and until then, it'll help the team stay above the cap floor. Advertisement Between Kreider, Trouba, Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome, there's a lot of 2021-22 Rangers, which is a choice. But as long as Kreider doesn't take away meaningful minutes from up-and-coming players and provides some much-needed support at even strength and on the power play, this is fine for the Ducks. Rangers grade: B- Ducks grade: B Corey Pronman: Kreider's game fell off notably this season, but he's still a useful forward. He's a big-bodied winger who skates very well, plays hard, and has some scoring touch. He's never been the most natural playmaker, and there's always a worry that, with a speed-based player, when the end of his career comes, it can come to an abrupt stop. Anaheim has money to play with, and their exceptionally young lineup can use a veteran like Kreider. They also have a deep prospect system, so losing Terrance is tolerable. Terrance is a strong skating forward. He has the edge work and speed for higher levels and can skate by junior defenders routinely. He has good hands and can create offense off the rush. I don't think his vision is a selling point, and he's more of a goal-scorer, but Terrance makes enough plays. His compete is solid and he can kill penalties. Terrance won't ever stand out in any one area, but he has versatility in his style of play and in the fact that he can play center or wing. He could be a bottom-six forward. He's not the biggest coup ever, but this is essentially a salary dump for New York. Rangers grade: B- Ducks grade: B+
