Latest news with #HarryMurphyCruise
TimesLIVE
6 days ago
- Business
- TimesLIVE
Australia's jobless rate hits 3-1/2-year high, ramps up easing bets for August
Australian employment rose only marginally in June as the jobless rate jumped to the highest since late 2021, showing perhaps the first crack in what had been an unusually resilient labour market and adding to the case for a rate cut next month. Investors sent the Australian dollar down 0.7% to $0.6480, the lowest in more than three weeks. Three-year government bond yields slid 10 basis points to 3.386% as markets ramped up bets for an August rate cut to 85% from 76% previously. Figures from the Australian bureau of statistics on Thursday showed net employment rose 2,000 in June from May, when it fell by an upwardly revised 1,100. That was well short of market forecasts for a 20,000 increase, though the series has been volatile in recent months. Most importantly, the jobless rate popped up to 4.3%, from 4.1%, the highest since November 2021 and a jolt after months of stable readings. The Reserve Bank of Australia was expecting the unemployment rate to peak at 4.3% by the end of the year. 'While we're not ringing the alarm bells, June's slackening is another good reason for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to get a wriggle on with rate cuts,' said Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research at Oxford Economics Australia. 'Looking ahead, the labour market has challenges nipping at its heels. First and foremost, US President Donald Trump's tariffs are weighing on business investment and prompting some firms to rethink hiring plans.' The labour market had proven unexpectedly resilient even as the economy overall barely grew. That was a reason the RBA shocked markets earlier this month and held interest rates steady at 3.85%, having cut them twice this year. It is not convinced inflation has been tamed, and is waiting for confirmation from the third quarter consumer price data due at the end of July. So far the reductions in interest rates have done little to spur consumers into spending, and economic growth has stayed subdued. Details of Thursday's report were weak. Full-time jobs dropped 38,200 in June, while hours worked fell back 0.9% after a sharp rise in May. The participation rate ticked up to 67.1%. That was somewhat at odds with leading indicators such as job vacancies, which showed signs of steadying after falling from their peaks in 2022, up 2.9% in the May quarter. Private sector data for June also showed job ads rebounded to one-year highs. 'There are clear signs of deceleration emerging in the labour market. This calls into question the RBA's decision to prioritise inflation over growth and jobs at its meeting earlier this month,' said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG. 'The RBA will no doubt be keen to make amends at its meeting in August.'
News.com.au
02-07-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
‘Notch in the column': ASX rallies to record close on rates prediction
Australia's sharemarket has rallied during the afternoon to a new record close, due to weaker-than-expected retail sales and further expectations of a rate cut when the Reserve Bank meets next week. The ASX200 index rallied 56.6 points or 0.66 per cent to 8597.7 on Wednesday, narrowly beating the previous record close of 8592.1. The broader All Ordinaries also jumped during Wednesday afternoon's trading up 56.70 points or 0.65 per cent to 8828.70. Australia's dollar slipped from a nine month high, down 0.06 per cent to buy 65.75 US cents. On an overall positive day, 10 of the 11 sectors finished in the green. The local bourse pushed higher during the afternoon's session after Australia's retail sales came in below expectations, up 0.2 per cent in May against expectations of a 0.5 per cent lift. This led to ANZ becoming the final of the major banks to forecast the RBA would cut interest rate in July by 25 basis points after its July 8 meeting. Oxford Economics head of economics research and global trade Harry Murphy Cruise said Tuesday's results adds to the case for a rate cut. 'Today's data is another notch in the column to cut rates when the RBA meets next week,' he said. 'Households will need more convincing to lift spending; many have banked earlier interest rate cuts, rather than spend them through the economy.' Despite weaker than expected retail sales figures, consumer discretionary were among the major winners. Wesfarmers shares gained 0.76 per cent to $85.36, while JB Hi Fi jumped 1.89 per cent to $112, 67 and Harvey Norman leapt 2.06 per cent to $5.38. Elsewhere the major iron ore miners also had a strong day after China's manufacturing PMI improved in June up from 49.5 to 49.7. BHP jumped 1.91 per cent to $37.27 while Fortescue climbed 4.10 per cent to $16.01 and Rio Tinto gained 2.24 per cent to $108.50. It was a mixed day for the big four banks. Commonwealth gained 0.60 per cent to $183.67, while ANZ narrowly closed higher up 0.10 per cent to $29.92. NAB shares slipped 0.93 per cent to $39.33 while Westpac is also trading in the red down 0.44 per cent to $33.72. In company news shares in Domino Pizza Enterprise slumped 15.79 per cent to $16.96 after the company announced chief executive Mark van Dyck will leave the business after less than a year in the top job. Later in the trading day the ASX issued a 'speeding ticket' to Domino's with the pizza maker saying it is not aware of any information that could explain why the share price had fallen by more than 25 per cent during trading. It subsequently strengthened after 2pm. Qantas shares also fell 2.23 per cent to $10.52, after the airline confirmed a data breach which saw 6 million Qantas customers could have been stolen in a cyberattack believed to be part of a co-ordinated attack on airlines globally. Shares in Helia also slumped 21.35 per cent to $4.31 after the lender mortgage insurer announced ING is in the process of negotiating with an alternate provider.
Perth Now
02-07-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Aussie sharemarket closes at record levels
Australia's sharemarket has rallied during the afternoon to a new record close, due to weaker-than-expected retail sales and further expectations of a rate cut when the Reserve Bank meets next week. The ASX200 index rallied 56.6 points or 0.66 per cent to 8597.7 on Wednesday, narrowly beating the previous record close of 8592.1. The broader All Ordinaries also jumped during Wednesday afternoon's trading up 56.70 points or 0.65 per cent to 8828.70. Australia's dollar slipped from a nine month high, down 0.06 per cent to buy 65.75 US cents. On an overall positive day, 10 of the 11 sectors finished in the green. ASX rallied to a record close during the Wednesday afternoon's trading NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard. Credit: News Corp Australia The local bourse pushed higher during the afternoon's session after Australia's retail sales came in below expectations, up 0.2 per cent in May against expectations of a 0.5 per cent lift. This led to ANZ becoming the final of the major banks to forecast the RBA would cut interest rate in July by 25 basis points after its July 8 meeting. Oxford Economics head of economics research and global trade Harry Murphy Cruise said Tuesday's results adds to the case for a rate cut. 'Today's data is another notch in the column to cut rates when the RBA meets next week,' he said. 'Households will need more convincing to lift spending; many have banked earlier interest rate cuts, rather than spend them through the economy.' Despite weaker than expected retail sales figures, consumer discretionary were among the major winners. Wesfarmers shares gained 0.76 per cent to $85.36, while JB Hi Fi jumped 1.89 per cent to $112, 67 and Harvey Norman leapt 2.06 per cent to $5.38. Elsewhere the major iron ore miners also had a strong day after China's manufacturing PMI improved in June up from 49.5 to 49.7. BHP jumped 1.91 per cent to $37.27 while Fortescue climbed 4.10 per cent to $16.01 and Rio Tinto gained 2.24 per cent to $108.50. It was a mixed day for the big four banks. Commonwealth gained 0.60 per cent to $183.67, while ANZ narrowly closed higher up 0.10 per cent to $29.92. NAB shares slipped 0.93 per cent to $39.33 while Westpac is also trading in the red down 0.44 per cent to $33.72. On an overall strong day for the market 10 of the 11 sectors finished in the green. NewsWire / Max Mason-Hubers Credit: News Corp Australia In company news shares in Domino Pizza Enterprise slumped 15.79 per cent to $16.96 after the company announced chief executive Mark van Dyck will leave the business after less than a year in the top job. Later in the trading day the ASX issued a 'speeding ticket' to Domino's with the pizza maker saying it is not aware of any information that could explain why the share price had fallen by more than 25 per cent during trading. It subsequently strengthened after 2pm. Qantas shares also fell 2.23 per cent to $10.52, after the airline confirmed a data breach which saw 6 million Qantas customers could have been stolen in a cyberattack believed to be part of a co-ordinated attack on airlines globally. Shares in Helia also slumped 21.35 per cent to $4.31 after the lender mortgage insurer announced ING is in the process of negotiating with an alternate provider.
News.com.au
02-07-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Australian retail spending weak despite RBA rate cut
Australians are spending a little more at the shops after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates in May, but it was not the boost to spending that experts were hoping for. Retail sales jumped 0.2 per cent in May following a disappointing April when sales fell by 0.1 per cent despite two long weekends in the period. Oxford Economics Australia head of economic research and global trade Harry Murphy Cruise said households remained pessimistic and it was weighing on sales. 'For households, the uncertainty of global events and the ghosts of inflation past are trumping the good news in the labour market,' he said. 'Unemployment remains remarkably low, with soaring job vacancies suggesting workers can remain confident that good news will continue. 'But the shadow of tariffs, the slowdown in China, and years of price rises eroding real disposable incomes are keeping households' wallets firmly closed.' Mr Murphy Cruise said Wednesday's results showed households needed more convincing via rate cuts before they lifted spending. 'Today's data is another notch in the column to cut rates when the RBA meets next week,' he said. ABS head of business statistics Robert Ewing said spending remained weak, with the jump on the back of clothing purchases. 'Retail spending was otherwise restrained this month, with a drop in food-related spending and flat results across household goods,' he said. Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rallied 2.9 per cent and department stores were up 2.6 per cent, but they were the only industries to rise, although both were off the back of large falls in April. 'Clothing retailers and department stores were boosted by people buying winter clothes, having held off on those purchases with the warmer-than-usual weather last month,' Mr Ewing said. While there was a bounce in clothing retailing, food-related spending fell for the first time this year. Food retailing went backwards 0.4 per cent for the month, while spending in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services came in flat. The weaker-than-expected results came as experts said retail growth would be about 0.5 per cent on the back of a rate cut in May.
