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Tariff deals could flip "sell America" trade, pull investors back to U.S. stocks
Tariff deals could flip "sell America" trade, pull investors back to U.S. stocks

Axios

time10 hours ago

  • Business
  • Axios

Tariff deals could flip "sell America" trade, pull investors back to U.S. stocks

The euro slid, and Japanese and European stocks fell following new trade deals — cross-asset moves that may signal cracks in the "Sell America" trade. Why it matters: Investors rushed into non-U.S. markets earlier this year amid policy uncertainty, driving the MSCI ex-USA index up nearly 20% year to date. But if tariff deals restore confidence in the U.S., that trade could start to unwind. What they're saying: "This whole notion of U.S. exceptionalism being over and you have to go overseas is overdone," says Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors. "Asian markets and the European markets declined because I think it was correctly viewed that we won this negotiation," Hatfield tells Axios. The tariff deal is "not good" for the European economy, which could also weigh on the European stocks, he says. Between the lines: The deal may be bearish for many asset classes in the region, as the EU is set to face nearly its highest tariffs in history, which could trim a percentage point off the region's growth, PIMCO told Bloomberg. Zoom in: The European stock market is also missing the key defining factor of the American stock market's bull run: technology, Hatfield says. "They were relying on sort of the old economy, exporting to the U.S., and so their growth prospects are diminished." Asian markets are also exposed to tariff headwinds, and Hatfield is bullish on the region (excluding China), given those concerns. Be smart: The U.S. and China engaged in trade talks Tuesday. An agreement has not been reached, though Chinese officials indicated there would be an extension of a truce set to expire Aug. 12. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rebuffed claims of an agreement in an interview with CNBC, but added that "the momentum is with us," especially given the deal with Europe. Hatfield agrees. "China really is at risk. Otherwise, they wouldn't be negotiating with the U.S." Yes, but: Both Japanese and European markets are still outperforming the S&P 500 year to date. "Importantly all three are at or close to new [all-time-highs] showing the breadth of the global equity bull market," said Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory. Pelosky is more bullish on Europe and Asia, but wrote that this is the "best period for global macro investors in the last 15+ years" in a recent note.

‘Every child is such a gift': 4th annual Youth Teepee Summit hosts Maori
‘Every child is such a gift': 4th annual Youth Teepee Summit hosts Maori

CTV News

timea day ago

  • Sport
  • CTV News

‘Every child is such a gift': 4th annual Youth Teepee Summit hosts Maori

Indigenous dancers are seen at the Youth Teepee Summit in Edmonton on July 29, 2025. (CTV News Edmonton/Darcy Seaton) Carmen Hatfield said her heart is full after the fourth annual Youth Teepee Summit kicked off its first day in the Edmonton river valley Tuesday. 'Every child is such a gift,' said Hatfield, who is the summit's executive assistant. The summit brings together Indigenous youth from across the province to connect, participate in cultural, physical and education activities, and interact with elders and speakers. But this year, 70 Maori youth from Aotearo (commonly referred to as New Zealand), were also part of the festivities. 'It's incredible to have them here,' said Hatfield. 'It's going to be really inspiring to see their culture … and we can teach each other (our) ways.' TEEPEESUMMIT Indigenous drummers are seen at the Youth Teepee Summit in Edmonton on July 29, 2025. (CTV News Edmonton/Darcy Seaton) The Maori youth are in Edmonton for the 2025 All Nations Volleyball Showcase that ran from July 25 to 28. 'It's really important for us to make sure that we connect the people of these lands and waters,' said coach Ngaakohu Paapuni. 'They get to sit and listen and learn the narratives of this particular generational knowledge that I think will help benefit our young people in terms of indigeneity around the world.' TEEPEESUMMIT Ngaakohu Paapuni, a Maori volleyball coach speaks to CTV News Edmonton at the 2025 Youth Teepee Summit on July 29, 2025. (Darcy Seaton) Taiki Pou, one of the Maori youth, said the trip has served as an opportunity to experience other Indigenous cultures. 'It's been really cool getting to see the powwow dances, smudging and all these Indigenous experiences from this land and comparing and contrasting them to what we have back home in New Zealand,' Pou told CTV News Edmonton.

Desperate search for missing schoolgirl, 14, last seen two days ago as anyone who sees her urged to call 999
Desperate search for missing schoolgirl, 14, last seen two days ago as anyone who sees her urged to call 999

The Sun

time18-07-2025

  • The Sun

Desperate search for missing schoolgirl, 14, last seen two days ago as anyone who sees her urged to call 999

FEARS GROW The police have released a description of the 14-year-old's outfit COPS have launched an urgent search for a 14-year-old girl. The police have released a picture of the missing girl, as the search begins. 1 Amber was last seen in Hilltop, Hatfield on July 16. She is believed to have disappeared between 5pm and 6pm. Hertfordshire Police have confirmed that she was last seen wearing black shorts and a grey and beige top.

Trump's tax and spending law is a short-term win but long-term headache for Wall Street
Trump's tax and spending law is a short-term win but long-term headache for Wall Street

CNN

time17-07-2025

  • Business
  • CNN

Trump's tax and spending law is a short-term win but long-term headache for Wall Street

President Donald Trump's signature tax and spending legislation is providing short-term clarity for Wall Street — but fueling concerns about the long-term health of the US economy, investors say. The 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' which Trump signed into law on July 4, is a positive for investors because of the certainty it provides for markets. But the bill is set to worsen the nation's debt burden over time, according to forecasts, which could put the government's finances and the economy on shakier grounds. For Wall Street, the legislation is not expected to spur growth or provide much of a boost to markets. Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, said the law is not stimulative like Trump's first-term tax cuts, and coupled with tariffs, it's not expected provide a meaningful tailwind for markets, 'There are very modest tax benefits that go into some areas, but the more important components are ultimately cutbacks in support for households that are already kind of struggling,' Green said. 'This is a very regressive tax program.' The package also includes some worries for investors because it does not address America's accumulating debt load. The law's passing has drawn ire from economists and deficit hawks who have warned about the debt-to-economic growth ratio and the potential for a future debt crisis. 'Markets had already priced in much of the expected fiscal and economic impact,' investors at UBS Global Wealth Management said in a July 4 note. 'However, the longer-term outlook is clouded by persistent deficits.' Investors this year have been on a roller coaster ride as markets dropped amid trade uncertainty and have soared to record highs. As Congress deliberated Trump's bill, it was another source of uncertainty. Signing the bill into law resolved that uncertainty, Jay Hatfield, chief executive at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said. 'We've still got tariff noise, but at least we don't have to worry about something terrible happening with the tax bill,' Hatfield said. 'It's relief. It's more like the absence of pain than it is pleasure.' The tax cuts from Trump's first term were set to expire at the end of the year, which would have resulted in a massive tax hike. Passing the bill, which extends those cuts, averts that scenario, Hatfield said. The bill also raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, giving lawmakers relief about the impending 'X date,' when the government was set to hit its borrowing limit. For the stock market, however, there isn't much juice in the legislation, Hatfield said. 'It's probably slightly good for investors, but not significant,' he said. 'We don't view it as being stimulative to the economy.' Trump during his campaign proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. That proposal did not make it into the final legislation, which held the corporate tax rate steady at 21%. Investors at UBS said the bill's passage provides a 'modest fiscal boost for 2026,' noting other tax cuts and spending reforms 'may support earnings growth at the margin.' Wall Street analysts have raised concerns this year about global investors' appetite for holding US debt. Those nerves were exacerbated by the size of Trump's bill. Long-term US debt, which is usually considered the safe, risk-free corner of the market, has come under scrutiny as the legislation is set to increase federal deficits. Higher deficits mean the government would have to issue more debt to finance its spending. An increase in the supply of government bonds coupled with a rising debt load could mean the need to offer higher rates to attract investors. Higher rates correspond to higher borrowing costs for Americans. 'We've been highlighting the precarious position of the US government's indebtedness for some time now, and, if left unchecked, we view debt as the single greatest risk to the 'special status' of the US in financial markets,' investors at BlackRock said in a June 30 note. Alan Auerbach, a professor of economics at UC Berkeley, said he doesn't expect significant short-term effects on the bond market, but in the long run, he expects the debt accumulation will push interest rates higher. 'If the Fed's independence is compromised with the appointment of a new chair, I think this will exacerbate the upward impact on longer-maturity Treasury yields,' Auerbach said. Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said he thinks Republicans lawmakers are hoping that the bill will spur growth, helping offset the rising debt burden. 'That remains to be seen,' he said. Similar to Auerbach, Rehling said he doesn't think there will be an immediate effect on the demand for bonds. But he expects yields to rise in the long run to compensate investors for the worsening fiscal outlook. 'I don't think this is a moment in time where the bond vigilantes come out and you see kind of explosive moves to the upside in yields,' Rehling said. 'This is going to lead to the Treasury issuing more debt to cover these expenses,' he said. 'And as supply comes onto the market, you would expect, just simple supply and demand, all else equal, that rates are going to have to increase to bring that demand into the market.'

Feds delay $58 million for Arkansas child programs
Feds delay $58 million for Arkansas child programs

Axios

time15-07-2025

  • Politics
  • Axios

Feds delay $58 million for Arkansas child programs

Arkansas is going without more than $58 million in federal education funding that was expected to be accessible on July 1 but has yet to be released by the Trump administration. The big picture: The Department of Education's funding delay has exacerbated the uncertainty for after-school, summer and other programs, leaving schools in limbo, advocates and policy experts say. The Education Department said in a last-minute notice that the funds would not be released while the programs were under review, according to the School Superintendents Association. By the numbers: An estimated $6.2 billion nationally in K-12 funds across five programs remains unavailable, according to the Learning Policy Institute, which conducts research to improve education policies. That includes funding for after-school and summer learning through the 21st Century Community Learning Centers program, money to support migratory children, educator development funds and more. SOAR Afterschool, a nonprofit serving about 550-600 children in Kindergarten through 5th grade in Springdale and Rogers, has had all $800,000 of its federal funding withheld, chief development officer Ellie Hoyt told Axios. That's about 70% of the organization's budget. It's unlikely that SOAR will be able to continue at its current scale without the money, Hoyt said. The program aims to help kids with homework and offer programs in art, STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) and recreation plus enable the 400 families it serves to have job stability. Children can stay until 6pm, allowing parents to take jobs or job shifts. It also operates a leadership development program with participating students from additional schools. Boys & Girls Clubs in Arkansas stand to lose about $2 million, Cheryl Hatfield, CEO at the Boys & Girls Club of Benton County, told Axios in an email. "Up to 10 Boys & Girls Clubs could be forced to shut their doors, and more than 9,400 kids will lose access to vital foundations such as nutritious meals, supportive mentors, and safe spaces during the most crucial hours of the day," she wrote. It would also mean the loss of 90 jobs at Boys & Girls Clubs in Arkansas, Hatfield added. The Benton County club operates a 21st Century Community Learning Center at Lowell Elementary that serves 50 children daily, "providing critical academic support to students who need it most" at no cost to their families. All of the $100,000 in annual funding it receives is needed to sustain the program, Hatfield said. Zoom in: The Arkansas Department of Education does not have a breakdown of how much funding is being withheld from which schools or organizations, spokesperson Kimberly Mundell told Axios. "We remain hopeful that the federal government will reconsider withholding these vital funds and continue supporting these essential programs for our students," Rogers Public Schools spokesperson Jason Ivester told Axios in an email. What they're saying: The U.S. Department of Education referred Axios' questions for this story to the Office of Management and Budget. An OMB spokesperson said no decisions have been made amid "an ongoing programmatic review of education funding."

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