Latest news with #HatimSharif
Economist
5 days ago
- Climate
- Economist
Why was the flooding in Texas so deadly?
Graphic detail | Water fall A mixture of geography, catastrophic rainfall and a lack of preparedness Your browser does not support this video. More than 100 people have died in one of the worst floods to hit America in a century. Torrential rain swept through Kerr County, in central Texas, early on July 4th. Among the dead are 27 girls and staff members carried away from a Christian summer camp as the water surged. More heavy rain is forecast this week. The charts and maps below explain what made the flood so deadly. Flash Flood Alley Texas Texas Hill Country Ingram weather station nty Kerr County Hunt water gauge Guadalupe river Camp Mystic Guadalupe river basin 50 km Part of the cause was record rainfall in a particularly vulnerable area of the state. At the Ingram weather station near Camp Mystic—where the girls had been staying—more than 13cm (5 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours, nearly double the historical average for the whole month. In some nearby areas of Kerr County, as much as 25cm may have fallen in just a few hours. The location of the downpour—at the head of the Guadalupe river—amplified its effects. Between 2.30am and 5.10am on July 4th the river rose almost nine metres (29 feet) at the Hunt water gauge near Camp Mystic. At 5.10am the river reached over 11 metres, after which the gauge stopped working for several hours. At this point more water was surging through the river than the typical flow over Niagara Falls. These levels surpassed those of a deadly flood in July 1987, when ten teenagers died while evacuating from another camp. Kerr County and the broader Hill Country region lies in 'Flash Flood Alley', a band of central Texas that curves south from Dallas through Austin, then west via San Antonio to the Mexican border. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico rises over the cliffs and hills of the Balcones Escarpment. It then cools and condenses into heavy rain. This natural mechanism makes the region unusually prone to downpours, says Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. This weekend the amount of water vapour rose because of remnants from Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in Mexico on June 29th. The landscape compounds the danger. Semi-arid soils soak up little water. Rain races down hills into a dense network of narrow creeks, which rise quickly. When the water surges it can sweep away buildings, vehicles and people. That danger is well known to Texans: their likelihood of dying in a flood is twice that of the average American. Between 1959 and 2019 more than 1,000 people in Texas were killed in floods—the highest death toll of any state. Watermark Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019 200 400 600 800 Texas 1,069 Despite the forecasts and its history of flooding, Kerr County appeared unprepared. Local news reports note that the area still lacks a flood-alarm system to notify residents and visitors: efforts to fund one have failed since 2018. The timing of the floods—in the middle of the night—may have made it harder to spread warnings and evacuate. Questions are also being asked of the Trump administration and its Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Since January the National Weather Service (NWS) has lost around 560 staff—through sackings, early retirements and voluntary redundancies—reducing its workforce by 10%. Some of these roles now need to be rehired. The NWS's offices in central Texas have unfilled posts for important positions, including a senior hydrologist and a warning-co-ordination meteorologist. In an open letter published in May, former directors of the NWS who served between 1988 and 2022 warned that their 'worst nightmare' was for staffing cuts to result in 'needless loss of life'. It is not clear yet what role, if any, the budget cuts may have played. It is, however, clear that flash-flooding will continue. Basic physics means that hotter air holds more water; on a warming planet that means increases in extreme precipitation of all sorts.
Yahoo
12-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Texas leads nation in flood deaths due to geography, size and population
Even before the Central Texas floods that killed more than 100 people, the state was by far the leader in U.S. flood deaths due partly to geography that can funnel rainwater into deadly deluges, according to a study spanning decades. From 1959 to 2019, 1,069 people died in Texas in flooding, which is nearly one-fifth of the total 5,724 flood fatalities in the Lower 48 states in that time, according to a 2021 study in the journal Water. That's about 370 more than the next closest state, Louisiana. Flooding is the second leading weather cause of death in the country, after heat, both in 2024 and the last 30 years, averaging 145 deaths a year in the last decade, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Other floods have turned deadly this year: Last month in San Antonio, 13 people died including 11 people who drove into water thinking they could get through, according to study author Hatim Sharif, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Texas at San Antonio who studies why people die in floods. For several years Sharif has urged state and local officials to integrate better emergency action programs to use flood forecasts and save lives by alerting people and closing off vulnerable intersections where roads and water meet. 'I think in Kerr County, if they had an integrated warning system that uses rainfall forecasts to forecast real-time impacts on the ground, that could have saved many lives and could have also helped emergency crews to know which location would be flooded, which roads would be impassable,' Sharif said. 'They could have taken action.' The role of geography and terrain Texas has so many deaths because of its geography, population and size, experts say. The area where the most recent deadly floods struck is known as flash flood alley because of hills and valleys. 'Steep, hilly terrain produces rapid runoff and quick stream rises, since the water will travel downhill at greater speed into rivers and over land,' said Kate Abshire, lead of NOAA's flash flood services. 'Rocky terrain can exacerbate the development of flash floods and raging waters, since rocks and clay soils do not allow as much water to infiltrate the ground.' 'Urban areas are especially prone to flash floods due to the large amounts of concrete and asphalt surfaces that do not allow water to penetrate into the soil easily,' she said. Along with those hills, 'you've got the Gulf of Mexico right there, the largest body of hot water in the entire North Atlantic most of the time,' said Jeff Masters a former government meteorologist who co-founded Weather Underground and now is at Yale Climate Connections. 'So you've got a ready source of moisture for creating floods.' Preventable driving deaths Historically, many of the deaths were preventable across the nation and in Texas alike, according to experts. Masters said nothing illustrates that better than one statistic in Sharif's study: 86% of flood deaths since 1959 were people driving or walking into floodwaters. Nearly 58% of the deaths were people in cars and trucks. It's a problem especially in Texas because of hills and low lying areas that have more than 3,000 places where roads cross streams and waterways without bridges or culverts, Sharif said. 'People in Texas, they like trucks and SUVs, especially trucks,' Sharif said. 'They think trucks are tough, and that is I think a factor. So sometimes they use their big car or SUV or truck, and they say they can beat the flood on the street ... especially at night. They underestimate the depth and velocity of water.' Abshire said that not only do people ignore the weather service's safety mantra, 'Turn around, don't drown,' but studies found that a number of these fatalities occur when people actively drive around barricades and barriers blocking flooded roads. The latest Texas Hill Country flooding was less typical because so many of the deaths were in a camp where the water overtook the victims, not people going into the water, Sharif said. Only about 8% of flood deaths in the last 60 years happened in permanent homes, mobile homes or camping, according to the study. The July 4th floods happened at night, a common time for flood deaths. More than half of deaths since 1959 have occurred at night, when it's dark and people can't see how much flooding there is or are not awake for the warnings, Sharif's study found. As far as demographics, about 62% of U.S. flood deaths were male, according to the study. 'Risk-taking behavior is usually associated with men,' Sharif said, adding that it's why most fatal victims of car crashes are male. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
The Independent
12-07-2025
- Climate
- The Independent
Texas leads nation in flood deaths due to geography, size and population
Even before the Central Texas floods that killed more than 100 people, the state was by far the leader in U.S. flood deaths due partly to geography that can funnel rainwater into deadly deluges, according to a study spanning decades. From 1959 to 2019, 1,069 people died in Texas in flooding, which is nearly one-fifth of the total 5,724 flood fatalities in the Lower 48 states in that time, according to a 2021 study in the journal Water. That's about 370 more than the next closest state, Louisiana. Flooding is the second leading weather cause of death in the country, after heat, both in 2024 and the last 30 years, averaging 145 deaths a year in the last decade, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Other floods have turned deadly this year: Last month in San Antonio, 13 people died including 11 people who drove into water thinking they could get through, according to study author Hatim Sharif, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Texas at San Antonio who studies why people die in floods. For several years Sharif has urged state and local officials to integrate better emergency action programs to use flood forecasts and save lives by alerting people and closing off vulnerable intersections where roads and water meet. 'I think in Kerr County, if they had an integrated warning system that uses rainfall forecasts to forecast real-time impacts on the ground, that could have saved many lives and could have also helped emergency crews to know which location would be flooded, which roads would be impassable,' Sharif said. 'They could have taken action.' The role of geography and terrain Texas has so many deaths because of its geography, population and size, experts say. The area where the most recent deadly floods struck is known as flash flood alley because of hills and valleys. 'Steep, hilly terrain produces rapid runoff and quick stream rises, since the water will travel downhill at greater speed into rivers and over land,' said Kate Abshire, lead of NOAA's flash flood services. 'Rocky terrain can exacerbate the development of flash floods and raging waters, since rocks and clay soils do not allow as much water to infiltrate the ground.' 'Urban areas are especially prone to flash floods due to the large amounts of concrete and asphalt surfaces that do not allow water to penetrate into the soil easily,' she said. Along with those hills, 'you've got the Gulf of Mexico right there, the largest body of hot water in the entire North Atlantic most of the time,' said Jeff Masters a former government meteorologist who co-founded Weather Underground and now is at Yale Climate Connections. 'So you've got a ready source of moisture for creating floods.' Preventable driving deaths Historically, many of the deaths were preventable across the nation and in Texas alike, according to experts. Masters said nothing illustrates that better than one statistic in Sharif's study: 86% of flood deaths since 1959 were people driving or walking into floodwaters. Nearly 58% of the deaths were people in cars and trucks. It's a problem especially in Texas because of hills and low lying areas that have more than 3,000 places where roads cross streams and waterways without bridges or culverts, Sharif said. ' People in Texas, they like trucks and SUVs, especially trucks,' Sharif said. 'They think trucks are tough, and that is I think a factor. So sometimes they use their big car or SUV or truck, and they say they can beat the flood on the street ... especially at night. They underestimate the depth and velocity of water.' Abshire said that not only do people ignore the weather service's safety mantra, 'Turn around, don't drown,' but studies found that a number of these fatalities occur when people actively drive around barricades and barriers blocking flooded roads. The latest Texas Hill Country flooding was less typical because so many of the deaths were in a camp where the water overtook the victims, not people going into the water, Sharif said. Only about 8% of flood deaths in the last 60 years happened in permanent homes, mobile homes or camping, according to the study. The July 4th floods happened at night, a common time for flood deaths. More than half of deaths since 1959 have occurred at night, when it's dark and people can't see how much flooding there is or are not awake for the warnings, Sharif's study found. As far as demographics, about 62% of U.S. flood deaths were male, according to the study. 'Risk-taking behavior is usually associated with men,' Sharif said, adding that it's why most fatal victims of car crashes are male. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
Associated Press
12-07-2025
- Climate
- Associated Press
Texas leads nation in flood deaths due to geography, size and population
Even before the Central Texas floods that killed more than 100 people, the state was by far the leader in U.S. flood deaths due partly to geography that can funnel rainwater into deadly deluges, according to a study spanning decades. From 1959 to 2019, 1,069 people died in Texas in flooding, which is nearly one-fifth of the total 5,724 flood fatalities in the Lower 48 states in that time, according to a 2021 study in the journal Water. That's about 370 more than the next closest state, Louisiana. Flooding is the second leading weather cause of death in the country, after heat, both in 2024 and the last 30 years, averaging 145 deaths a year in the last decade, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Other floods have turned deadly this year: Last month in San Antonio, 13 people died including 11 people who drove into water thinking they could get through, according to study author Hatim Sharif, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Texas at San Antonio who studies why people die in floods. For several years Sharif has urged state and local officials to integrate better emergency action programs to use flood forecasts and save lives by alerting people and closing off vulnerable intersections where roads and water meet. 'I think in Kerr County, if they had an integrated warning system that uses rainfall forecasts to forecast real-time impacts on the ground, that could have saved many lives and could have also helped emergency crews to know which location would be flooded, which roads would be impassable,' Sharif said. 'They could have taken action.' The role of geography and terrain Texas has so many deaths because of its geography, population and size, experts say. The area where the most recent deadly floods struck is known as flash flood alley because of hills and valleys. 'Steep, hilly terrain produces rapid runoff and quick stream rises, since the water will travel downhill at greater speed into rivers and over land,' said Kate Abshire, lead of NOAA's flash flood services. 'Rocky terrain can exacerbate the development of flash floods and raging waters, since rocks and clay soils do not allow as much water to infiltrate the ground.' 'Urban areas are especially prone to flash floods due to the large amounts of concrete and asphalt surfaces that do not allow water to penetrate into the soil easily,' she said. Along with those hills, 'you've got the Gulf of Mexico right there, the largest body of hot water in the entire North Atlantic most of the time,' said Jeff Masters a former government meteorologist who co-founded Weather Underground and now is at Yale Climate Connections. 'So you've got a ready source of moisture for creating floods.' Preventable driving deaths Historically, many of the deaths were preventable across the nation and in Texas alike, according to experts. Masters said nothing illustrates that better than one statistic in Sharif's study: 86% of flood deaths since 1959 were people driving or walking into floodwaters. Nearly 58% of the deaths were people in cars and trucks. It's a problem especially in Texas because of hills and low lying areas that have more than 3,000 places where roads cross streams and waterways without bridges or culverts, Sharif said. 'People in Texas, they like trucks and SUVs, especially trucks,' Sharif said. 'They think trucks are tough, and that is I think a factor. So sometimes they use their big car or SUV or truck, and they say they can beat the flood on the street ... especially at night. They underestimate the depth and velocity of water.' Abshire said that not only do people ignore the weather service's safety mantra, 'Turn around, don't drown,' but studies found that a number of these fatalities occur when people actively drive around barricades and barriers blocking flooded roads. The latest Texas Hill Country flooding was less typical because so many of the deaths were in a camp where the water overtook the victims, not people going into the water, Sharif said. Only about 8% of flood deaths in the last 60 years happened in permanent homes, mobile homes or camping, according to the study. The July 4th floods happened at night, a common time for flood deaths. More than half of deaths since 1959 have occurred at night, when it's dark and people can't see how much flooding there is or are not awake for the warnings, Sharif's study found. As far as demographics, about 62% of U.S. flood deaths were male, according to the study. 'Risk-taking behavior is usually associated with men,' Sharif said, adding that it's why most fatal victims of car crashes are male. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
RTÉ News
09-07-2025
- Climate
- RTÉ News
Texas floods: How geography, climate and policy failures collided
"There's no such thing as a natural disaster," geographers like to say - a reminder that human choices turn hazards into tragedies. The Texas flash floods this weekend that left more than 100 people dead, including many children, offer a stark illustration. Here is a look at the intertwined forces that amplified this storm's impact. 'Flash Flood Alley' Texas's Hill Country sits in an area known as "Flash Flood Alley," explains Professor Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. Warm Gulf air rushes up the Balcones Escarpment - a line of steep hills and cliffs that arcs southwest down from near Dallas - cools, and dumps torrents onto thin soils that quickly give way to bedrock. Runoff then funnels through a dense web of creeks. "Water will rise very, very quickly, within minutes or a few hours," Prof Sharif said. The early hours of 4 July proved that. Around 3am, a gauge near Camp Mystic in Hunt showed the Guadalupe River rising nearly 30cm every five minutes; by 4.30am the river had surged more than 6m, National Weather Service data show. That is enough water to sweep away people, vehicles and buildings. An urgent NWS warning went out shortly after 1am, but most campers were asleep; phones are banned, coverage is patchy, and darkness makes escape routes hard to judge. Mr Sharif urges the use of hydrologic forecasts that convert rainfall into likely river levels. "Rainfall needs to be translated into runoff," he said. "If you have 10 inches (25cm), what will happen?" Summer camps have long been drawn to the region for its natural beauty. But with increasing risks, Prof Sharif warns that treating these sites as safe or permanent is unwise. 'We need to adapt' A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, loading the dice for heavier downpours. A new analysis by ClimaMeter finds that the meteorological conditions preceding the floods, which delivered more than twice the monthly average rainfall in a single day, could not be explained by natural variability alone. "Climate change is already affecting us, so we need to adapt," said Mireia Ginesta, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford who co-authored the research, which is funded by the European Union and the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS). "We also need to cut our emissions, and make sure that proper funding is provided to the forecast services and research in general on climate change." The call comes as the US National Weather Service, like other agencies, has experienced deep staffing cuts under President Donald Trump's administration. Experts stress, however, that NWS forecasters performed admirably under the circumstances. The real failure, wrote climate scientist Daniel Swain on Bluesky, "was not a bad weather prediction, it was one of 'last mile' forecast/warning dissemination." No warning system For years, commissioners in Kerr County, where the camps lie, considered flood sirens and digital alerts to replace the informal practice of summer camp staff getting on the radio and warning fellow camps. Minutes from a 2016 meeting show officials labelling even a feasibility study "a little extravagant," suggesting sirens would mainly help tourists, and vouching for the word-of-mouth system. "The thought of our beautiful Kerr County having these damn sirens going off in the middle of night, I'm going to have to start drinking again to put up with y'all," Commissioner H.A. Buster Baldwin said in a transcript. The debate rolled on. Residents during meetings in 2021 expressed strident opposition toward relying on federal funds tied to the Biden administration. After the disaster, San Antonio mother Nicole Wilson - who almost sent her daughters to Camp Mystic - launched a petition on urging Governor Greg Abbott to approve a modern warning network. "Five minutes of that siren going off could have saved every single one of those children," she said.
