Latest news with #Haver
African Manager
6 days ago
- Business
- African Manager
China is set to be resilient to global trade shocks
The year started for China with a positive tone on the back of a turnaround in private sector sentiment, driven by a more supportive economic policy mix, optimism around the country's capabilities on artificial intelligence (AI), and a stabilization in manufacturing activity. Importantly, this came after years of subdued investor appetite and volatile growth on the back of real estate wounds, regulatory stringency, limited official stimulus, and the trauma from hard pandemic lockdowns. Such positive outlook and turnaround translated into stronger activity and constant upgrades in growth expectations since September 2024. However, global macro prospects were suddenly shaken by a radical shift in US trade policies in February, when president Trump announced a massive increase in import tariffs. China, in particular, was singled out by the US with 'embargo like' 140% tariffs and much less room for exemptions. After bilateral negotiations started, tariffs were reduced to a more manageable but still high 40% rate. Despite this major shock, China's economy appears to be resilient. In fact, across major economies, China seems to be the least affected by growth expectations downgrades since US tariffs 'Liberation Day,' even if the country is by far the largest exporter globally. 2025 growth expectations downgrades (Bloomberg consensus, % real GDP growth for the year) Sources: Bloomberg, QNB analysis In our view, three main factors sustain a more optimistic economic take on China in the face of the US policy shock. First, despite being the world's largest exporter and a key node in global manufacturing, the overall impact from US tariffs on China's growth is very limited. This is largely due to the declining importance of the US as an export destination and Beijing's strategic reorientation of trade flows. In the early 2000s, the US accounted for nearly 20% of Chinese exports, but this share has declined to around 15% in recent years, equivalent to around 2.8% of the country's GDP. Exports grew stronger in markets such as Southeast Asia, the EU, and Belt and Road countries, helping to offset US-driven losses. Moreover, exports themselves have been declining in overall importance to China's economic model, now contributing less than 20% to GDP – compared to 35% in 2006 – amid a policy-led pivot toward domestic consumption, high-tech innovation, and services. These structural shifts, coupled with adaptive trade strategies, have helped insulate China from the full brunt of Trump-era tariffs, reducing their macroeconomic impact and sustaining the country's external surplus. Chinese exports of goods in perspective (USD Bn, total for 2024) Sources: Haver, QNB analysis Second, tariffs are blunt tools in a world of fragmented supply chains, and China's central role in global production networks has significantly diluted their effectiveness. Unlike the bilateral trade flows of the past, modern goods cross multiple borders during assembly, making it hard to isolate national value added. Multinational firms adapt quickly, shifting final assembly to third countries while maintaining Chinese inputs through transhipment. These workarounds often outpace enforcement, undermining the intent of protectionist policies. Additionally, a substantial share of Chinese exports – such as critical components in electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals – are not easily substitutable and remain essential to US firms and supply stability. As a result, tariffs are unlikely to trigger reshoring and China is expected to retain its role as an indispensable link in global manufacturing. Third, US tariffs are expected to be offset by the devaluation of the Chinese renminbi (RMB), particularly in real effective terms, which is enhancing China's price competitiveness globally. Since the escalation of the 'trade war' in February, the RMB has weakened against the USD, but even more so against a broader basket of currencies, resulting in a meaningful depreciation of China's real effective exchange rate (REER). This has lowered the relative cost of Chinese exports in non-USD markets, helping Chinese firms gain market share globally despite higher US tariffs. The REER adjustment acts as an automatic stabilizer for China. In effect, the RMB's adjustment is helping to preserve or even increase external demand, ensuring continued export surplus, further underscoring the limitations of unilateral trade barriers. All in all, China's growth prospects this year remain moderately robust despite continued trade tensions. This is due to a structural decline in US export dependence, the ineffectiveness of tariffs in a globalized supply chain environment, and the competitive tailwind from a weaker RMB collectively cushioning the Chinese economy from material external shocks.
Miami Herald
17-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
China's spy agencies are investing heavily in AI, researchers say
WASHINGTON -- Chinese spy services have invested heavily in artificial intelligence to create new tools to speed analysis, provide early warning of threats and potentially help shape operational plans during a war, according to a new report. China, like the United States, hopes that artificial intelligence will improve the efficiency and accuracy of its intelligence analysis, allowing it to collect more intelligence and analyze it faster and more cheaply. The study, by Recorded Future's Insikt Group, which studies cybersecurity and other threats from nation-states, terrorists and criminal groups, comes amid rising concern about how Chinese spy agencies will use AI to power covert actions, as Western intelligence services also embrace the technology. The researchers reviewed patent applications by the People's Liberation Army, publicly available contracts and other material to better understand how China's military and intelligence services have invested in artificial intelligence. Recorded Future found that China is probably using a mix of large language models, technology that can analyze huge amounts of data and communicate its results in human language. Meta and OpenAI are thought to be among the American models that China is using, along with Chinese models from DeepSeek, Zhipu AI and others. The CIA and other U.S. spy agencies have stepped up their use of artificial intelligence, both to improve analytic work and to help overseas operatives remain undiscovered. One tool developed by the CIA is designed to help analysts assess the positions of foreign leaders, creating virtual versions of the officials that are powered by artificial intelligence. Former U.S. intelligence officials have said China's large population has long given it a potential advantage over U.S. spy agencies, but artificial intelligence could even the playing field. Generative AI models can scan huge amounts of collected communications intelligence and queue the most interesting information for human analysts to examine. Some U.S. officials said China's investment in artificial intelligence was of little surprise, given its potential to improve analytic assessments. But the Recorded Future report found specific examples of how China could be using large language models and generative AI to not just improve its intelligence analysis, but also help military commanders improve targeting and operational plans. In October, Ordnance Science and Research Academy of China filed a patent application to use various forms of intelligence to train a military model. The application talks about the ways the model could be used, such as by crafting operational plans and helping battlefield intelligence analysts analyze friendly and enemy forces, according to Zoe Haver, the author of the study and a senior threat intelligence analyst at the Insikt Group. 'This was very broad-ranging and intended to be applicable across the intelligence cycle,' Haver said. Over the past two years, China has tightened control over information about what its military and intelligence agencies have obtained. So while Recorded Future was often able to see the military's procurement of generative AI models and servers, it was not always clear how the technology would be used. But some Chinese contractors appeared to have grand ambitions. China's military and intelligence agencies appear to have quickly pivoted from open source and Western AI to DeepSeek, which unveiled a model rivaling OpenAI's model, ChatGPT, the day after Christmas. Global interest in DeepSeek's model exploded in January. By the end of February, military procurement records appeared showing Chinese companies quickly taking up DeepSeek's technology. At the same time, American firms have cracked down on China's use of their models. This month, OpenAI reported that it had disrupted several operations most likely originating in China that had tried to use its artificial intelligence tools in malicious ways. The operations were a combination of influence campaigns and surveillance, according to OpenAI. One of them tried to use ChatGPT to generate comments on social media sites about the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development. To train a model to provide meaningful insight on intelligence, a government needs to give it access to its intelligence data, which can be difficult while still keeping classified material secure. Chinese intelligence products are often infused with the ideology of the ruling Communist Party. Haver said a model trained on such reports would produce intelligence biased in the same way. But whether the Chinese government sees that as a problem is another question. 'Some Chinese public security researchers are talking about ChatGPT being used for intelligence,' Haver said. 'And they are worried about how objectivity, neutrality, neoliberalism and capitalistic values could infiltrate Chinese intelligence work if they use foreign models.' This article originally appeared in The New York Times. Copyright 2025
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- General
- Yahoo
Doña Ana County Fire Rescue has new deputy chief
EL PASO, Texas (KTSM) — Doña Ana County Fire Rescue has a new deputy chief. The County announced that Cody Haver will serve as the new deputy chief for Doña Ana County Fire Rescue. He will lead the Fire Prevention Division and will serve as the county's fire marshal, a new position for the department, the County said. 'Haver brings nearly two decades of fire and emergency medical service experience. He began his career with the Las Cruces Fire Department in 2004, serving in many roles including, serving as a firefighter, driver operator, lieutenant and most recently as a battalion chief. Haver helped lead the research, creation and growth for the Mobile Integrated Health Program and the Mobile Crisis Response programs at LCFD. He also wrote several state and federal grant proposals to procure personal protective equipment and advanced training opportunities for firefighters,' the County said in its announcement. As a fire marshal at LCFD, Haver coordinated assistance to local restaurants during the COVID-19 public health restrictions to ensure fire safety compliance, the County said. 'Deputy Chief Haver comes to us highly recommended from the Las Cruces Fire Department. He has a wealth of knowledge, experience and proven leadership in the fire service,' Interim Chief Andew Bowen said. 'We are confident his expertise will significantly benefit our department and the community we serve.' Haver earned his bachelor's degree in business administration and master's degree in public administration from New Mexico State University. He is a licensed paramedic through the State of New Mexico and certified paramedic through the National Registry of Emergency Medical Technicians. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
06-03-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Gwyneth Paltrow Opened Up About How Her Menopause Symptoms Got "Out Of Control" After She Turned To Alcohol To Cope Amid The Devastating LA Wildfires
Gwyneth Paltrow has opened up about how she coped amid the devastating Los Angeles wildfires. On a recent episode of The Goop Podcast, Gwyneth sat down for a conversation titled 'What No One Ever Told Us About Menopause.' She was joined by guest Dr. Mary Claire Haver — a board-certified OB/GYN and author of the New York Times bestseller The New Menopause. As they began discussing their own experiences with menopausal symptoms currently, Gwyneth, 52, shared, 'I'm really in the thick of it right now, so I'm all over the place.' 'But I noticed my symptoms are like, pretty well under control — unless, you know, in January when the fires were happening in LA,' she continued. 'I've used alcohol for its purpose.' 'I was medicating,' Gwyneth explained before admitting that during "those two weeks I think I drank every night' amid the fires. Gwyneth went on to explain that her menopausal symptoms were 'completely out of control' due to her increased use of alcohol. 'Now at this point, I don't drink a lot at all,' she said. 'Maybe I'll have one drink a week.' While Gwyneth and her family were thankfully not directly impacted by the LA wildfires back in January, she shared on Instagram at the time that 'so many of [her] close friends have lost everything,' and that she was experiencing a 'deep grief.' On her drinking impacting her menopausal symptoms, Gwyneth concluded, 'It was the first time I really noticed, like, causation in that way.' Dr. Haver offered a confirmation of Gwyneth's suspicions, saying, 'Lots of my patients say the same thing. They've really just spontaneously realized that they've cut back on alcohol or just quit altogether because it hasn't been worth it. They don't bounce back the same way. It stays in our system a lot longer." Gwyneth also shared that she's currently 'making an effort' to switch her mindset around eating from what it's been in the past. When Dr. Haver spoke about how she's trying to 'eat to be strong instead of eat to be thin,' Gwyneth opened up about her own challenges. 'It's tough. It's hard,' Gywneth said in reference to eating more protein, saying that her generation 'was raised' to value being thin over being strong. 'I mean, I'm making a real effort to do it, I'm really trying but sometimes I'm like gagging down cottage cheese — I know that it's necessary, but…' she said, to which Dr. Haver agreed. The Iron Man star has previously faced scrutiny for her comments surrounding her diet. Back in 2023, Gwyneth received a ton of backlash for describing her diet that seemingly consisted of primarily bone broth and vegetables. At the time, her revelation prompted people to argue that she was promoting unhealthy eating habits. She then responded, saying, 'This was a transparent look at a conversation between me and my doctor. It's not meant to be advice for anybody else. It's really just what has worked for me and it's been very powerful and very positive.' You can listen to the full podcast episode here. Meanwhile, I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments below. More on this Gwyneth Paltrow Just Praised Jennifer Garner For The Way That She Kept Her Cool While Trapped In An Elevator For Over An HourStephanie Soteriou · July 29, 2024 Gwyneth Paltrow Recalled Her "Awesome" Babysitter, And It Was A Much, Much Younger Jack Bauer From "24"Mychal Thompson · March 24, 2024 Former MCU Actor Gwyneth Paltrow Voiced Her Own Superhero FatigueNatasha Jokic · March 22, 2024
Buzz Feed
06-03-2025
- Health
- Buzz Feed
Gwyneth Paltrow Opened Up About How Her Menopause Symptoms Got "Out Of Control" After She Turned To Alcohol To Cope Amid The Devastating LA Wildfires
Gwyneth Paltrow has opened up about how she coped amid the devastating Los Angeles wildfires. On a recent episode of The Goop Podcast, Gwyneth sat down for a conversation titled 'What No One Ever Told Us About Menopause.' She was joined by guest Dr. Mary Claire Haver — a board-certified OB/GYN and author of the New York Times bestseller The New Menopause. As they began discussing their own experiences with menopausal symptoms currently, Gwyneth, 52, shared, 'I'm really in the thick of it right now, so I'm all over the place.' 'But I noticed my symptoms are like, pretty well under control — unless, you know, in January when the fires were happening in LA,' she continued. 'I've used alcohol for its purpose.' 'I was medicating,' Gwyneth explained before admitting that during "those two weeks I think I drank every night' amid the fires. Gwyneth went on to explain that her menopausal symptoms were 'completely out of control' due to her increased use of alcohol. 'Now at this point, I don't drink a lot at all,' she said. 'Maybe I'll have one drink a week.' While Gwyneth and her family were thankfully not directly impacted by the LA wildfires back in January, she shared on Instagram at the time that 'so many of [her] close friends have lost everything,' and that she was experiencing a 'deep grief.' On her drinking impacting her menopausal symptoms, Gwyneth concluded, 'It was the first time I really noticed, like, causation in that way.' Dr. Haver offered a confirmation of Gwyneth's suspicions, saying, 'Lots of my patients say the same thing. They've really just spontaneously realized that they've cut back on alcohol or just quit altogether because it hasn't been worth it. They don't bounce back the same way. It stays in our system a lot longer." Gwyneth also shared that she's currently 'making an effort' to switch her mindset around eating from what it's been in the past. When Dr. Haver spoke about how she's trying to 'eat to be strong instead of eat to be thin,' Gwyneth opened up about her own challenges. 'It's tough. It's hard,' Gywneth said in reference to eating more protein, saying that her generation 'was raised' to value being thin over being strong. 'I mean, I'm making a real effort to do it, I'm really trying but sometimes I'm like gagging down cottage cheese — I know that it's necessary, but…' she said, to which Dr. Haver agreed. The Iron Man star has previously faced scrutiny for her comments surrounding her diet. Back in 2023, Gwyneth received a ton of backlash for describing her diet that seemingly consisted of primarily bone broth and vegetables. At the time, her revelation prompted people to argue that she was promoting unhealthy eating habits. She then responded, saying, 'This was a transparent look at a conversation between me and my doctor. It's not meant to be advice for anybody else. It's really just what has worked for me and it's been very powerful and very positive.'
