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Business Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Amro cuts all Asean+3 economies' growth forecasts – except Vietnam's
[SINGAPORE] The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro) trimmed its 2025 growth projections for all ten Asean member states as well as China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea – but spared Vietnam with a half-point upgrade. The downward revisions of between 0.2 and two percentage points reflect the impact of US tariffs set to take effect next Friday (Aug 1), said Amro in its latest quarterly update released on Wednesday. Earlier estimates in April did not include the impact of then-newly announced US tariffs, said the research organisation that monitors Asean+3 economies, a region that altogether contributes to more than 40 per cent of global economic expansion. Vietnam is the only economy that saw an improvement in its 2025 growth forecast to 7 per cent from Amro's earlier April forecast of 6.5 per cent. Amro chief economist He Dong said in a press briefing on Wednesday: 'The bumping up of Vietnam's growth is really a reflection of the much better outturn in the first half of the year, which automatically gave us the room to revise up the whole-year growth forecast.' The country notched a multi-year high gross domestic product growth of 7.52 per cent in the first half of 2025, driven by healthier domestic consumption, robust exports and strong improvement in the manufacturing and services sectors. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Acknowledging that Vietnam stands out as one of the most exposed to US tariffs, He maintained that the nation has the policy space to support economic activity if needed. The chief economist added that some of Vietnam's ongoing reforms to enhance its investment environment and improve infrastructure efficiency place it in a more resilient position looking ahead. 'Beyond the short term, what is more important is also to integrate much more deeply with other regional economies in attracting foreign direct investment,' he said. Asean's saving grace: Resilient domestic demand As a whole, Asean is now expected to grow 4.4 per cent in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 4.7 per cent. Across the other major economies, Thailand faced a 0.8 percentage point cut in growth; the Philippines at 0.7 percentage point; Malaysia at 0.5 percentage point; Singapore at 0.4 percentage point; while Indonesia saw a 0.2 percentage point drop. On Indonesia, He noted that the largest South-east Asian economy is primarily driven by domestic demand, which means it is less open to international trade and thus less vulnerable. The chief economist added that China is Indonesia's largest export market and, hence, reasonably protected from the recent round of tariffs. 'Our recent consultations with Indonesia show that the economy is really doing very well and its domestic demand-driven growth momentum is there,' said He. 'Both monetary and fiscal policies have a lot of space to support the economy if necessary.' On the Philippines, Amro group head and principal economist Allen Ng said that its downward revision to 5.6 per cent from 6.3 per cent was primarily due to the projected impact from slower global growth. The economist explained the direct impact of US tariffs on the Philippines is weaker than in other regional economies due to its more domestic-centric economic structure, but a broader global slowdown will hit its exports, business sentiment and investment activities. Regardless, growth in the Philippines continues to be very robust, said Ng. 'It will continue to be driven by robust private consumption activities, given multiple factors including continued stable labour market conditions, slower inflation currently, and the expectation of robust remittances going forward,' he noted. A bleaker 2026 Amro's estimates for 2026 are not much rosier. Impact from the wide-ranging US tariffs is projected to be more significant next year, said the international organisation, particularly for regional economies that face higher duties and rely more on external demand. The region's growth forecasts for 2026 also took a beating – only Vietnam and Myanmar had their estimates bumped up, while the rest saw cuts. Vietnam is now expected to grow at 6.5 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 6.2 per cent while Myanmar should grow at 1.5 per cent, lower than April's estimate of 1 per cent. Overall, however, Amro noted that continued strength in domestic demand and sustained external demand for electronics and tourism, is expected to continue to underpin regional growth. Taming price pressures On the other hand, inflation prints are looking better. Headline inflation for the overall Asean+3 region is projected to remain 'low and stable' at 0.9 per cent in 2025 and 1 per cent in 2026. This is down from an earlier April estimate of 1.7 per cent for both years. 'This outlook reflects stable commodity prices, including the normalisation of oil prices following the temporary volatility during the brief escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict,' said Amro. Softer food prices and weaker global growth are expected to further ease inflationary pressures. Additionally, subdued consumer demand and the ongoing reallocation of productive capacity in China are also likely to limit any increase in regional inflation, said the international organisation. Silver linings All in all, significant risks lie ahead, said Amro's He. 'If tariff measures continue to escalate, global trade could face substantial disruptions,' said the chief economist. 'The outlook gets more challenging if we add additional risk factors, such as tighter financial conditions and commodity price spikes, in light of continued geopolitical tensions.' Regardless, He believes tariff and policy uncertainties from the US provide an opportunity for much tighter intra-regional integration. 'Asean+3's diversity, in my view, is one of its greatest assets,' said He. 'Economies in this region are at different stages of development with varied resource endowments and comparative advantages (and) can forge more integrated supply chains and production networks.' He concluded: 'This diversity, when leveraged through coordinated policies and integration initiatives, will transform potential vulnerabilities into collective resilience for the region.' He succeeded Dr Khor Hoe Ee as the organisation's chief economist on Jun 9. Dr Khor, whose term ended on May 26, held the position from 2016 to 2025. Amro's next update is scheduled for October 2025.
Business Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Amro cuts all Asean+3 economies' growth forecasts
[SINGAPORE] The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro) trimmed its 2025 growth projections for all ten Asean member states as well as China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea – but spared Vietnam with a half-point upgrade. The downward revisions of between 0.2 and two percentage points reflect the impact of US tariffs set to take effect next Friday (Aug 1), said Amro in its latest quarterly update released on Wednesday. Earlier estimates in April did not include the impact of then-newly announced US tariffs, said the research organisation that monitors Asean+3 economies, a region that altogether contributes to more than 40 per cent of global economic expansion. Vietnam is the only economy that saw an improvement in its 2025 growth forecast to 7 per cent from Amro's earlier April forecast of 6.5 per cent. Amro chief economist He Dong said in a press briefing on Wednesday: 'The bumping up of Vietnam's growth is really a reflection of the much better outturn in the first half of the year, which automatically gave us the room to revise up the whole-year growth forecast.' The country notched a multi-year high gross domestic product growth of 7.52 per cent in the first half of 2025, driven by healthier domestic consumption, robust exports and strong improvement in the manufacturing and services sectors. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Acknowledging that Vietnam stands out as one of the most exposed to US tariffs, He maintained that the nation has the policy space to support economic activity if needed. The chief economist added that some of Vietnam's ongoing reforms to enhance its investment environment and improve infrastructure efficiency place it in a more resilient position looking ahead. 'Beyond the short term, what is more important is also to integrate much more deeply with other regional economies in attracting foreign direct investment,' he said. Asean's saving grace: Resilient domestic demand As a whole, Asean is now expected to grow 4.4 per cent in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 4.7 per cent. Across the other major economies, Thailand faced a 0.8 percentage point cut in growth; the Philippines at 0.7 percentage point; Malaysia at 0.5 percentage point; Singapore at 0.4 percentage point; while Indonesia saw a 0.2 percentage point drop. On Indonesia, He noted that the largest South-east Asian economy is primarily driven by domestic demand, which means it is less open to international trade and thus less vulnerable. The chief economist added that China is Indonesia's largest export market and, hence, reasonably protected from the recent round of tariffs. 'Our recent consultations with Indonesia show that the economy is really doing very well and its domestic demand-driven growth momentum is there,' said He. 'Both monetary and fiscal policies have a lot of space to support the economy if necessary.' On the Philippines, Amro group head and principal economist Allen Ng said that its downward revision to 5.6 per cent from 6.3 per cent was primarily due to the projected impact from slower global growth. The economist explained the direct impact of US tariffs on the Philippines is weaker than in other regional economies due to its more domestic-centric economic structure, but a broader global slowdown will hit its exports, business sentiment and investment activities. Regardless, growth in the Philippines continues to be very robust, said Ng. 'It will continue to be driven by robust private consumption activities, given multiple factors including continued stable labour market conditions, slower inflation currently, and the expectation of robust remittances going forward,' he noted. A bleaker 2026 Amro's estimates for 2026 are not much rosier. Impact from the wide-ranging US tariffs is projected to be more significant next year, said the international organisation, particularly for regional economies that face higher duties and rely more on external demand. The region's growth forecasts for 2026 also took a beating – only Vietnam and Myanmar had their estimates bumped up, while the rest saw cuts. Vietnam is now expected to grow at 6.5 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 6.2 per cent while Myanmar should grow at 1.5 per cent, lower than April's estimate of 1 per cent. Overall, however, Amro noted that continued strength in domestic demand and sustained external demand for electronics and tourism, is expected to continue to underpin regional growth. Taming price pressures On the other hand, inflation prints are looking better. Headline inflation for the overall Asean+3 region is projected to remain 'low and stable' at 0.9 per cent in 2025 and 1 per cent in 2026. This is down from an earlier April estimate of 1.7 per cent for both years. 'This outlook reflects stable commodity prices, including the normalisation of oil prices following the temporary volatility during the brief escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict,' said Amro. Softer food prices and weaker global growth are expected to further ease inflationary pressures. Additionally, subdued consumer demand and the ongoing reallocation of productive capacity in China are also likely to limit any increase in regional inflation, said the international organisation. Silver linings All in all, significant risks lie ahead, said Amro's He. 'If tariff measures continue to escalate, global trade could face substantial disruptions,' said the chief economist. 'The outlook gets more challenging if we add additional risk factors, such as tighter financial conditions and commodity price spikes, in light of continued geopolitical tensions.' Regardless, He believes tariff and policy uncertainties from the US provide an opportunity for much tighter intra-regional integration. 'Asean+3's diversity, in my view, is one of its greatest assets,' said He. 'Economies in this region are at different stages of development with varied resource endowments and comparative advantages (and) can forge more integrated supply chains and production networks.' He concluded: 'This diversity, when leveraged through coordinated policies and integration initiatives, will transform potential vulnerabilities into collective resilience for the region.' He succeeded Dr Khor Hoe Ee as the organisation's chief economist on Jun 9. Dr Khor, whose term ended on May 26, held the position from 2016 to 2025. Amro's next update is scheduled for October 2025.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
2025 Land-Sea Economic Forum Drives China-ASEAN Industrial Cooperation
SINGAPORE, June 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A news report from iChongqing: The 2025 Land-Sea Economic Forum was held on June 12 in Singapore, drawing nearly 200 participants from political, business, and academic sectors both in China and abroad. Themed "Connectivity for Shared Success: Trends and Visions for Chinese Industries Expanding into Southeast Asia," the forum gathered Chinese and international guests in Singapore to explore new opportunities for Chinese industries expanding into the region, and to promote coordinated regional economic development. The smooth development of ASEAN-China relations is largely due to ASEAN's effective functioning as a regional organization, said Kishore Mahbubani, a Distinguished Fellow of the Asia Research Institute at NUS and a Former Permanent Representative of Singapore to the United Nations, in his keynote speech. He noted regional cooperation requires working with all neighbors. China's direct investment in ASEAN has doubled since the pandemic, and ASEAN has also become an important source of foreign investment for China. However, China's investment in ASEAN still accounts for less than 10%, indicating significant growth potential, according to He Dong, Chief Economist at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). Guan Xin, Vice President of Changan Auto Southeast Asia Co., Ltd., shared in his keynote address that in May 2025, Changan's first overseas new energy vehicle manufacturing base officially began operations in Rayong, Thailand. Changan has also established over 190 stores and partnered with more than 200 suppliers across Southeast Asia, creating over 300,000 jobs along the industrial chain and employing more than 1,100 staff, 87% of whom are local employees. During the forum, China Securities released the report "A New Era of Industrial Revolution and Regional Integration: Southeast Asia Investment Report 2025," highlighting that there is broad room for cooperation between China and ASEAN in areas such as digitalization, manufacturing, and services, with Singapore and Chongqing serving as representative models of this partnership. At the forum, representatives from MINISO, Tencent, Ant International, Malaysian Investment Development Authority, the Asian Development Bank, and the Singapore Exchange shared firsthand insights on going global. In roundtable sessions, they highlighted how AI is reshaping cross-border e-commerce, how Chinese cultural exports are gaining traction in ASEAN markets, and how financial services are strengthening China-Singapore connectivity and regional expansion. View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE iChongqing Sign in to access your portfolio
Forbes
05-04-2025
- Entertainment
- Forbes
Penhaligon's Celebrates 155th Anniversary With China Exhibition
Penhaligon's has quickly become one of the most well-known brands in China's niche fragrance category. Now it's showcasing its 155-year history to its Chinese fanbase. Penhaligon's is a global fragrance brand with a 40-strong portfolio. Its immersive retrospective exhibition 'Eau so British' opened in Shanghai—the first stop in a series of global outings ensuring the brand is as relevant today as it was in 1870. Running from March 28 to April 4, the event opened during Shanghai Fashion Week at the former residence of the comprador He Dong. In a unique partnership with Chinese artist He Xian, Penhaligon's narrative was brought to life through traditional Chinese shadow puppetry, which acted as a backdrop to the retrospective. He Xian drew inspiration from Penhaligon's very first scent Hammam Boutique to create The Birth of an English Legend—6 acts of light and shadow that portrayed how the original Mr. Penhaligon captured jasmine, lavender, and rose, essentially embarking on the brand's 155 year journey. Penhaligon's A considered curation puts the fragrances at the heart of this first consumer-facing event in China. Woven around these, the story is told by 30 items of archival ephemera, including original bottles, heritage products, packaging, and artworks. Across multiple rooms, these document over a century of perfumery, social history, and branding. An audio guide enhances images from Penhaligon's past and present. Penhaligon's immersive exhibition in Shanghai Courtesy Penhaligon's China is a key location for fashion curation. Gucci—a regular exhibitor in China—also launched Bamboo at the same time: Decoding in March at the historical Sunke Villa. Alongside archive pieces, it features artworks from Sybil Montet and Yanran Chen. And 'Eau so British' was not the only China-first show opening at the time; Loro Piana's 'If You Know You Know' at the Museum of Art Pudong was the house's debut China exhibit also opened in March (coincidentally, the brand is celebrating 100 years.) 'Eau so British' coincided with Notes Shanghai, the perfume trade show recently added to the official Shanghai Fashion Week tradeshow schedule. It attracted over 10,000 industry professionals and enthusiasts from all over the world including the fragrance KOL and influencer Scarlett Pan @宝藏女孩阿花. Pan, who attended the exhibition opening, says Penhaligon's reputation in China has been built on the Portraits collection, a line of quirky, humorous characters—what she describes as 'fancy animal-head bottles with melodramatic backstories and British aristocratic vibes.' To cement their appeal among this new generation of fragrance enthusiasts, the exhibition introduced April's release, Fortuitous Finley, which has been added to the Portraits collection. With notes of salted pistachio and the unique violet leaf, it joins other characters from the series such as Duchess Rose, Terrible Teddy, and Arthur—all among the best sellers in China. 'Young customers [here] really eat this up, and it makes the brand's UK heritage, especially the connections with royalty, feel more tangible,' Pan explains. These nods to a long association with the British monarchy started in 1903 when Penhaligon's was awarded its first Royal Warrant by the Queen Consort to King Edward VII, Queen Alexandra. Despite only entering the market in 2021, Penhaligon's has been quickly advancing in the Chinese market. It now has 24 stores in locations like Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Kunming, Chengdu, and Shenzhen. And while 2025 is an important marker for the historic brand globally, 2024 was a key year for the Puig-owned label in the mainland. That year saw the opening of four doors: Wuhan SKP in July; SLT in Beijing and Plaza 66 in Shanghai—both in August—and Taikoo Hui also in Shanghai in December. For 2025's Lunar New Year, the aptly titled fragrance Luna, among the brand's most popular fragrances in the country, was given a chic, snake-inspired visual rebrand for the festival. Pan, for one, finds these classic collections, especially Sartorial, Blenheim Bouquet (made with King Charles), and Halfeti, more appealing. 'These vintage-style scents with old-school elegance and understated, gentle profiles better reflect the British culture I'm more familiar with, say, in period dramas and films,' she explains. A pre-eminent voices in the sector, Pan complimented the 'visual flair' of the display. 'I think Chinese fragrance lovers probably showed up here today with love and curiosity: a full-on appreciation of British culture,' she said at the event. Few have a heritage quite like Penhaligon's. The exhibition, which has been causing a stir on platforms like Weibo and Red Note, is now moving on to Wuhan followed by stop-offs in London (in May) as well as Dubai and Sydney in Q4.
