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Economic Times
11-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Indian market to benefit as investors seek opportunities beyond the US: Samir Arora
Samir Arora of Helios Capital believes that global investors are reducing their US market exposure, favoring ex-US ETFs, which benefits India due to its strong growth narrative. This shift reflects a broader diversification trend as investors seek opportunities beyond the US. Further, he anticipates increased FII flows into India, especially with the resolution of events like the 'Jane Street' issue. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads , Founder,, says global investors are reconsidering their US market exposure. Many believe US assets are overweighted in global portfolios. Funds are now flowing into ex-US ETFs. India, with its compelling growth narrative, stands to benefit. Experts predict increased investment flows into the Indian market. This shift reflects a broader diversification trend as investors seek opportunities beyond the US.: The Jane Street event has a very positive impact. There is no need to do much discussion on that. That is just too obvious. The regular FIIs will like that it is being cleaned up. As for the FII flows, the big story is as follows: for the last many years, the US gets about 70% of world equity the MSCI world index had some 65-68% in the US before the great financial crisis (GFC). After GFC, the US outperformed the rest of the world, the longer-term average was about 55%. So, according to me and according to whatever I read and according to what I do myself in my global fund, nobody is willing to put 70% in the US anymore. And this is across the world. You just type three lines and you will see hundreds of articles on how an ex-US ETF has suddenly started getting billions of dollars and so many interviews, so much if the big picture, the rest of the world or even the US guys think that they should put 3%, 2%, 5% less in the US market because anyway the number is very big, 67-68%, then that 3-4% has to go to the balance 33% of the market or the weight. So if there is any credible story outside the US, which India has, you will get more than 10-15% extra flow. So, the outflows have stopped according to me and the inflows will happen slowly or faster but it is a matter of time because there is a limit to how much you can push US exposure in a global has a strong case to be one of the beneficiaries and therefore should get more FIIs flows. By the way, in the last 20 odd years there have been only four negative years and out of that four, two have been within the last three years. So, if the FIIs stop selling and the DIIs are anyway buying, that is enough. Separately we have to remember that we cannot have a massive rally and if it is, then that would make a situation like in the early part of this year when valuation went up too much while the earnings were not coming. Therefore expectations are of 10-15% return, and for that enough FII money will come in.: It has increased because one of them has not heated up, it has melted down, which is called Zepto. And in fact, it is very clear from data that we can see on downloads of apps and this thing on discounts that the pressure has reduced and also, do not call it quick commerce and confuse the public. It is a retailing retail sales are 500 billion in total of which, these quick commerce guys are selling a combined $8-10 billion. Therefore if somebody is at 10 billion and the market is 500 billion, even if he grows 3-5-10%, 20% more than the other or 100% for a few years, it does not mean anything. It is a big market. It is just like any other retailing and mostly around the world, retailing companies are the biggest companies like Walmart, Amazon. We do not call Amazon a tech company. It is a retailer. It is the same five companies in India, plus DMart and Zomato and others on the other side,It is just a different mode that we have discovered based on factors like cheap labour, concentration of people, fewer massive refrigerators at home, pollution and traffic issues. Yesterday, I read that it took five-and-a-half hours for a guy to go from Gurgaon to Delhi. If you are taking advantage of the fact that we have more people who need jobs and it is an Indian thing, there is nothing to be surprised about the concept.
Economic Times
10-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
In the big picture, IT services not great any more: Samir Arora
Samir Arora, Founder, Helios Capital, points out that the IT and large consumer sectors are currently experiencing slow earnings growth, needing to increase from 3-5% to 8-10% to boost the market. He anticipates that large banks will recover to 14-15% earnings after NIM pressure eases. Arora suggests a realistic expectation of 10-15% annual equity returns, aligning with recent market performance. Arora is pessimistic about the IT sector's future. He cites US uncertainty and AI's increasing role in replacing human jobs as key concerns. Arora highlights job losses at firms like Microsoft and Meta. He argues AI's primary function is to automate tasks previously done by people. Arora believes this trend poses a significant challenge to India's IT industry. ADVERTISEMENT Where do you see the markets headed? Samir Arora: The markets are okay. I do not like this other end of the market, guys who say this is 25 years of India and the Amrit Kaal of India. They over-dramatize and oversell. But imagine continuing the GDP growth at 6-7% and that you are helped by flows and after every two-three days, there is talk of getting ready for tariff response and all that. If we get away with tariffs lower than China, lower than Bangladesh, lower than Sri Lanka, lower than Japan, EU and get 10-15%, then that will help on the other side. Plus, the fiscal deficit is in control. The interest rate, inflation, and liquidity numbers are good. But nothing is so attractive that you should make 20-25%. That's why I say okay. Okay means you will get decent return. You do not have to always make much more than the underlying earnings growth. It is not that you can get PE rating, but you can continue with the earnings growth reflecting in stock prices. For markets now to move higher, what could be the trigger? Markets have got much more than what we thought they would get in April. Liquidity is back, rates have come down, monsoon has been good. Tariffs, so far it appears there would be sensible application… Samir Arora: India would be relatively better off. Yes. Yet from April, markets are just not going anywhere. If not April, at least May, June. So, if the news is favourable, why is it so? Samir Arora: But it is okay in the sense that the market will be up 4-5% year to date. I consider year to date as calendar year to date. So, that is why I am imagining or expecting only 10-12% per annum for one or two years or at least one year; then the earnings have to grow much more than they are. Currently, there are two big chunks of the market which are not growing in earnings. One is the IT sector and one is the large consumer sector. They have to grow from 3-5% to 8-10%, then the whole thing can get a boost and maybe the financial sector, particularly large banks and all whose earnings in this one quarter and maybe second quarter will be 8-10%, they have to go back to the 14-15% which will happen after a few quarters, after the NIM pressure goes away. ADVERTISEMENT These 2-3 big chunks of the market are not growing at 15%. Normally they used to, but they may not go back to 15%, but they can go between 10% and 15% and that is fair to expect and not unreasonable. But that is enough for you to be fully interested in equities. If in the end, you get more, great; but we do not have to start by imagining or selling or overselling that you are going to make 20% per annum, but you can make 10-15% per annum. The last six months in the end are basically going along with that expectation only, although the first one or two months were bad, but overall it is up 5-6-7%, It will be all okay in six-seven months. ADVERTISEMENT The last time we spoke to you, you said markets are looking okay and banks are looking good. Are banks really looking good? Samir Arora: I am not saying banks are looking good. I am saying for the overall market to do better, these three pools have to grow at higher rates than they are currently. But we continue with the banks we have. Of course, we have been pained a lot by our number one holding for the last three-four years or maybe four-five years. But last year, it was okay. Even year to date, it is okay. So, it is okay. Not every stock is going to give me 20-25% but I do not think that the market is going to be like that. So, we hope a few stocks will give that and as long as they outperform by 1% or 2-3% also, it is okay. Help us with your take on the IT space as well because the same quarter last year, you were quite bullish on the overall space but of late, you are not expecting much of the IT space and you have sold off there. Samir Arora: I do not know about last year but this year from Feb basically we have only one IT stock… ADVERTISEMENT Any hopes from the earning season, are you still looking for opportunities? Samir Arora: No, we do not have hope. Of course, there can be hope in the sense that positioning is very light and nobody is bullish. I do not play technical, but go for the big picture. If instead of 3%, you want to grow 4%, it's great for a technical reaction. But the bottom line is that A) the US uncertainty has not gone away; and B) Is it not enough to see every day, day after day, things that you thought were being done by human beings are now being done by AI and basically new tech or new technology? Even drivers are losing their jobs. Companies like Microsoft are firing employees. You can see Meta firing employees and on the other hand paying hundreds of million dollars for some employees. So, the whole sector is in flux and if you really look at it philosophically and conceptually, that biggest attack is on India because what is the role of AI in its purest sense? Two things. One is to do things which human beings could not do as well, things like weather forecasting or some drug discovery or something that is great. The other one is to replace human beings. There is no third reason for doing AI. It is to replace human beings. ADVERTISEMENT Now you can say, and this is what these companies say and the bulls say, that if you see the last three or four rounds, whether it was in 2000 or then the Cloud and then it was this and then it was that, people discovered new things to do and therefore in the end, jobs were not lost, businesses continued to grow. Here the only thing is that one of the core objectives is to replace human beings. It is not a side issue that as part of doing something else, you replace the human effort. No, that is the main effort. The second one, for a smaller part, is to do things which humans could not do. That part will continue. But the other argument is that in the beginning companies will need to get advice or work done on moving faster to cloud, on what data set to use, what AI to use. If you saw the multiplex companies from '21, people knew that it has been disrupted by OTT, but every day some analysts would come and say that this month Superman is coming and this month some Pushpa 2 is releasing therefore this month is very good. We have to see the big picture. Philosophically, it has been disrupted. Now, that does not mean next quarter, I would not have one share here or there, but big picture IT is not any great sector according to me. Actually, it is not IT. I am talking about IT services. IT is great. IT services relies on billing of people.
Economic Times
10-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
In the big picture, IT is not a great sector any more: Samir Arora
Samir Arora, Founder, Helios Capital, points out that the IT and large consumer sectors are currently experiencing slow earnings growth, needing to increase from 3-5% to 8-10% to boost the market. He anticipates that large banks will recover to 14-15% earnings after NIM pressure eases. Arora suggests a realistic expectation of 10-15% annual equity returns, aligning with recent market performance. Arora is pessimistic about the IT sector's future. He cites US uncertainty and AI's increasing role in replacing human jobs as key concerns. Arora highlights job losses at firms like Microsoft and Meta. He argues AI's primary function is to automate tasks previously done by people. Arora believes this trend poses a significant challenge to India's IT industry. Where do you see the markets headed? Samir Arora: The markets are okay. I do not like this other end of the market, guys who say this is 25 years of India and the Amrit Kaal of India. They over-dramatize and oversell. But imagine continuing the GDP growth at 6-7% and that you are helped by flows and after every two-three days, there is talk of getting ready for tariff response and all that. If we get away with tariffs lower than China, lower than Bangladesh, lower than Sri Lanka, lower than Japan, EU and get 10-15%, then that will help on the other side. Plus, the fiscal deficit is in control. The interest rate, inflation, and liquidity numbers are good. But nothing is so attractive that you should make 20-25%. That's why I say okay. Okay means you will get decent return. You do not have to always make much more than the underlying earnings growth. It is not that you can get PE rating, but you can continue with the earnings growth reflecting in stock prices. For markets now to move higher, what could be the trigger? Markets have got much more than what we thought they would get in April. Liquidity is back, rates have come down, monsoon has been good. Tariffs, so far it appears there would be sensible application… Samir Arora: India would be relatively better off. Yes. Yet from April, markets are just not going anywhere. If not April, at least May, June. So, if the news is favourable, why is it so? Samir Arora: But it is okay in the sense that the market will be up 4-5% year to date. I consider year to date as calendar year to date. So, that is why I am imagining or expecting only 10-12% per annum for one or two years or at least one year; then the earnings have to grow much more than they are. Currently, there are two big chunks of the market which are not growing in earnings. One is the IT sector and one is the large consumer sector. They have to grow from 3-5% to 8-10%, then the whole thing can get a boost and maybe the financial sector, particularly large banks and all whose earnings in this one quarter and maybe second quarter will be 8-10%, they have to go back to the 14-15% which will happen after a few quarters, after the NIM pressure goes 2-3 big chunks of the market are not growing at 15%. Normally they used to, but they may not go back to 15%, but they can go between 10% and 15% and that is fair to expect and not unreasonable. But that is enough for you to be fully interested in equities. If in the end, you get more, great; but we do not have to start by imagining or selling or overselling that you are going to make 20% per annum, but you can make 10-15% per annum. The last six months in the end are basically going along with that expectation only, although the first one or two months were bad, but overall it is up 5-6-7%, It will be all okay in six-seven months. The last time we spoke to you, you said markets are looking okay and banks are looking good. Are banks really looking good? Samir Arora: I am not saying banks are looking good. I am saying for the overall market to do better, these three pools have to grow at higher rates than they are currently. But we continue with the banks we have. Of course, we have been pained a lot by our number one holding for the last three-four years or maybe four-five years. But last year, it was okay. Even year to date, it is okay. So, it is okay. Not every stock is going to give me 20-25% but I do not think that the market is going to be like that. So, we hope a few stocks will give that and as long as they outperform by 1% or 2-3% also, it is okay. Help us with your take on the IT space as well because the same quarter last year, you were quite bullish on the overall space but of late, you are not expecting much of the IT space and you have sold off there. Samir Arora: I do not know about last year but this year from Feb basically we have only one IT stock… Any hopes from the earning season, are you still looking for opportunities? Samir Arora: No, we do not have hope. Of course, there can be hope in the sense that positioning is very light and nobody is bullish. I do not play technical, but go for the big picture. If instead of 3%, you want to grow 4%, it's great for a technical reaction. But the bottom line is that A) the US uncertainty has not gone away; and B) Is it not enough to see every day, day after day, things that you thought were being done by human beings are now being done by AI and basically new tech or new technology? Even drivers are losing their jobs. Companies like Microsoft are firing employees. You can see Meta firing employees and on the other hand paying hundreds of million dollars for some employees. So, the whole sector is in flux and if you really look at it philosophically and conceptually, that biggest attack is on India because what is the role of AI in its purest sense? Two things. One is to do things which human beings could not do as well, things like weather forecasting or some drug discovery or something that is great. The other one is to replace human beings. There is no third reason for doing AI. It is to replace human beings. Now you can say, and this is what these companies say and the bulls say, that if you see the last three or four rounds, whether it was in 2000 or then the Cloud and then it was this and then it was that, people discovered new things to do and therefore in the end, jobs were not lost, businesses continued to grow. Here the only thing is that one of the core objectives is to replace human beings. It is not a side issue that as part of doing something else, you replace the human effort. No, that is the main effort. The second one, for a smaller part, is to do things which humans could not do. That part will continue. But the other argument is that in the beginning companies will need to get advice or work done on moving faster to cloud, on what data set to use, what AI to use. If you saw the multiplex companies from '21, people knew that it has been disrupted by OTT, but every day some analysts would come and say that this month Superman is coming and this month some Pushpa 2 is releasing therefore this month is very good. We have to see the big picture. Philosophically, it has been disrupted. Now, that does not mean next quarter, I would not have one share here or there, but big picture IT is not any great sector according to me.
Time of India
10-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
In the big picture, IT is not a great sector any more: Samir Arora
Samir Arora , Founder, Helios Capital , points out that the IT and large consumer sectors are currently experiencing slow earnings growth, needing to increase from 3-5% to 8-10% to boost the market. He anticipates that large banks will recover to 14-15% earnings after NIM pressure eases. Arora suggests a realistic expectation of 10-15% annual equity returns, aligning with recent market performance. Arora is pessimistic about the IT sector's future. He cites US uncertainty and AI's increasing role in replacing human jobs as key concerns. Arora highlights job losses at firms like Microsoft and Meta. He argues AI's primary function is to automate tasks previously done by people. Arora believes this trend poses a significant challenge to India's IT industry. Where do you see the markets headed? Samir Arora: The markets are okay. I do not like this other end of the market, guys who say this is 25 years of India and the Amrit Kaal of India. They over-dramatize and oversell. But imagine continuing the GDP growth at 6-7% and that you are helped by flows and after every two-three days, there is talk of getting ready for tariff response and all that. If we get away with tariffs lower than China, lower than Bangladesh, lower than Sri Lanka, lower than Japan, EU and get 10-15%, then that will help on the other side. Plus, the fiscal deficit is in control. The interest rate, inflation, and liquidity numbers are good. But nothing is so attractive that you should make 20-25%. That's why I say okay. Okay means you will get decent return. You do not have to always make much more than the underlying earnings growth. It is not that you can get PE rating, but you can continue with the earnings growth reflecting in stock prices. For markets now to move higher, what could be the trigger? Markets have got much more than what we thought they would get in April. Liquidity is back, rates have come down, monsoon has been good. Tariffs, so far it appears there would be sensible application… Samir Arora: India would be relatively better off. Yes. Yet from April, markets are just not going anywhere. If not April, at least May, June. So, if the news is favourable, why is it so? Samir Arora: But it is okay in the sense that the market will be up 4-5% year to date. I consider year to date as calendar year to date. So, that is why I am imagining or expecting only 10-12% per annum for one or two years or at least one year; then the earnings have to grow much more than they are. Live Events You Might Also Like: IT stocks hit decade-high 3.2% dividend yield as FIIs flee. Should you buy TCS, Infosys, Wipro before Q1 results? Currently, there are two big chunks of the market which are not growing in earnings. One is the IT sector and one is the large consumer sector. They have to grow from 3-5% to 8-10%, then the whole thing can get a boost and maybe the financial sector, particularly large banks and all whose earnings in this one quarter and maybe second quarter will be 8-10%, they have to go back to the 14-15% which will happen after a few quarters, after the NIM pressure goes away. These 2-3 big chunks of the market are not growing at 15%. Normally they used to, but they may not go back to 15%, but they can go between 10% and 15% and that is fair to expect and not unreasonable. But that is enough for you to be fully interested in equities. If in the end, you get more, great; but we do not have to start by imagining or selling or overselling that you are going to make 20% per annum, but you can make 10-15% per annum. The last six months in the end are basically going along with that expectation only, although the first one or two months were bad, but overall it is up 5-6-7%, It will be all okay in six-seven months. The last time we spoke to you, you said markets are looking okay and banks are looking good. Are banks really looking good? Samir Arora: I am not saying banks are looking good. I am saying for the overall market to do better, these three pools have to grow at higher rates than they are currently. But we continue with the banks we have. Of course, we have been pained a lot by our number one holding for the last three-four years or maybe four-five years. But last year, it was okay. Even year to date, it is okay. So, it is okay. Not every stock is going to give me 20-25% but I do not think that the market is going to be like that. So, we hope a few stocks will give that and as long as they outperform by 1% or 2-3% also, it is okay. You Might Also Like: FII selloff in IT stocks tops Rs 16,500 cr in Q1. Time to buy or bail? Help us with your take on the IT space as well because the same quarter last year, you were quite bullish on the overall space but of late, you are not expecting much of the IT space and you have sold off there. Samir Arora: I do not know about last year but this year from Feb basically we have only one IT stock… Any hopes from the earning season, are you still looking for opportunities? Samir Arora: No, we do not have hope. Of course, there can be hope in the sense that positioning is very light and nobody is bullish. I do not play technical, but go for the big picture. If instead of 3%, you want to grow 4%, it's great for a technical reaction. But the bottom line is that A) the US uncertainty has not gone away; and B) Is it not enough to see every day, day after day, things that you thought were being done by human beings are now being done by AI and basically new tech or new technology? Even drivers are losing their jobs. Companies like Microsoft are firing employees. You can see Meta firing employees and on the other hand paying hundreds of million dollars for some employees. So, the whole sector is in flux and if you really look at it philosophically and conceptually, that biggest attack is on India because what is the role of AI in its purest sense? Two things. One is to do things which human beings could not do as well, things like weather forecasting or some drug discovery or something that is great. The other one is to replace human beings. There is no third reason for doing AI. It is to replace human beings. Now you can say, and this is what these companies say and the bulls say, that if you see the last three or four rounds, whether it was in 2000 or then the Cloud and then it was this and then it was that, people discovered new things to do and therefore in the end, jobs were not lost, businesses continued to grow. Here the only thing is that one of the core objectives is to replace human beings. It is not a side issue that as part of doing something else, you replace the human effort. No, that is the main effort. The second one, for a smaller part, is to do things which humans could not do. That part will continue. But the other argument is that in the beginning companies will need to get advice or work done on moving faster to cloud, on what data set to use, what AI to use. If you saw the multiplex companies from '21, people knew that it has been disrupted by OTT, but every day some analysts would come and say that this month Superman is coming and this month some Pushpa 2 is releasing therefore this month is very good. We have to see the big picture. Philosophically, it has been disrupted. Now, that does not mean next quarter, I would not have one share here or there, but big picture IT is not any great sector according to me. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Time of India
16-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India set to gain from shift in global asset allocation: Samir Arora
China is very good. As an investment, it is very good. We used to have 4-5% in China when we had 75% in US. Now our China goal is to have 15% and we are at some 12 odd percent. It is the tech stocks. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "So, for our own global fund we had 74-75% in US till say Jan end and now, of course, it is very less but our goal is to have 50% in US. And I can read and see many-many articles, you can also see flows into ex-US ETFs that those funds have started picking up and getting 2-2 billion a week or something which they used to get zero money before or very little," says Samir Arora , Founder, Helios Capital So, wait and watch would mean cutting the noise because you do not know what is next. But in general, because of recent experience of two or three wars that we have seen in recent years, the market seems to be not bothered. So, the natural reaction again, and this time we are also doing the same, is to say let us just wait because A) in terms of time duration, it does not look like it is going to be a long war. Even Israel says we are going to do it for two has only a few X number of missiles. So, if you use 200 per day, you will finish them in 10 days. And so far, Iran is at least not trying to get us into the picture, which means they are not doing anything on the Hormuz Strait to stop flow of oil around that or to attack US troops in different Middle East countries. So, if it is in that sense, if it is a 5-10-day affair, even if oil is up 10%, then in a few days it will be down 10% or 8% or whatever and therefore, no point bothering. So cut the noise means wait and I have become very bullish, not just bullish, very bullish and the main reason for that is that it is very-very clear in black and white that the world's allocation to US stocks is coming down. The US equity markets absorbed 65-70% of the world equity flows. If we just go simply by MSCI World index in which US weightage became the highest ever and in say 2008-10 time period, it was in the 50s. Now, it is about 67-68%. And it is clear from hearing, reading, and even our own fund that we do not feel like putting back 70% in for our own global fund we had 74-75% in US till say Jan end and now, of course, it is very less but our goal is to have 50% in US. And I can read and see many-many articles, you can also see flows into ex-US ETFs that those funds have started picking up and getting 2-2 billion a week or something which they used to get zero money before or very little.I am currently reading Ray Dalio's book saying that the US is going to have a heart attack in three years in terms of their dollar and US debt and all that. So, all these things are leading to the fact and also because of political issues and other issues that the world does not want to get back to a 67% weight and slowly if that happen and it is already happening, then the 33%, 35% of the audience which is the 100 minus 65, if they get 5% from the 65-68 which US has, that is big flow for everybody. In our case anyway, we are also getting some flow. We mean market. And initially we do not need to get massive first need to stop outflows which were happening for the last since October. So, if the FII stop selling and then buying a little and Indians are buying, the market can stop falling and you can look at it with optimism. I do not think market will go up a lot. But if you and everybody believes that the market will not fall a lot or may not fall or may go up 5-10%, then that is enough for the fund managers to seek midcap stocks and smallcap stocks. Once you are a little bit comfortable with the backdrop of the market and, of course, then the interest rate cut and the fact that our growth is better and all those other things will come, but it does not mean a big rally, but it can be viewed with is very good. As an investment, it is very good. We used to have 4-5% in China when we had 75% in US. Now our China goal is to have 15% and we are at some 12 odd percent. It is the tech stocks. The tech stocks there are very good. The auto stock is very good. They have similar to Spotify, Tencent Music. They have similar to our MakeMyTrip, the parent CTrip very good. All these are absolutely great companies and it is a cycle and China is very cheap. It has to be bought or should be bought and people are buying also.
