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Hershey's Stock: A Recovery From Cocoa Catastrophe
Hershey's Stock: A Recovery From Cocoa Catastrophe

Yahoo

time13-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Hershey's Stock: A Recovery From Cocoa Catastrophe

Throughout a volatile stretch Hersheys has faced significant pressures marked by geopolitical instability, supply chain disruptions and factors related to the production of Cocoa, input costs have risen to multi-decade highs for the very goods the company specializes in. Despite these headwinds, market forces and the initial signs of a turnaround are in view, with elevated prices and improving supply conditions starting to ease cost pressures. Hershey's may be entering the beginning of an earnings recovery. While the stock has long been battered by a dramatic increase in these costs with a collective decline of 41% to 162 a share from its all time high of 272 a share in May 2023, the company's, resilient brand equity, diversification/acquisition efforts suggest a favorable risk reward setup towards improving financials in the interim. Do not mistake Hersheys as being only a brand related to chocolate bars, the company lays claim to an impressive suite of brands, including its crown jewel, the most popular candy in the entire United States: Reese's peanut butter cups as well as an expanding portfolio of non-chocolate snacks. Cocoa trees typically take 57 years to mature, and the prices for both delivery and futures of cocoa have skyrocketed due to a sharp decline in output from the Ivory Coast and especially Ghana (which represented historically 15-18% of global cocoa production). The sharp decline comes in from a range of factors hitting local farmers especially hard and the ability to grow, specifically within Ghana, the Ghanan Cocoa Board- a government agency monopolizing the external trade of cocoa has an unsustainable and rapidly growing debt crisis while facing the consequences of its past failures and corruption. Farmers were not paid enough relative to the work being done, and it has been cheaper to allow mining encroachment on land historically used for growing cocoa. The failure of the Ghanan Cocoa Board in supporting the farmers and actual producers of cocoa while recklessly financing expenditure through irresponsible use of contracts is hitting production incredibly hard and is likely to have lasting damage (as seen in cocoa prices). The weak production numbers being attributed to seasonal rains is not fully to blame as the true cause and effects are much more nuanced. While the Ghana situation would seem to be a disaster, the worst of the production gap seems to be priced in. Futures prices have already factored in significant disruption and the massive increases in cocoa prices have made planting the cacao tree a much more economically feasible outlay in other regions of cocoa production such as Indonesia and South America, do not mistake this as a short term turnaround although global markets are fairly efficient and are allocating towards profitable ventures such as farming cocoa at such elevated prices. Not an overnight fix although the drivers and capacity are there. As new trees planted during the crisis begin to reach maturity, the supply shock is expected to ease over the next several years. Hershey's, which hedges its cocoa input costs far in advance, will likely see lagged but accretive margin expansion as prices stabilize or retrace from record highs. The dramatic shock realized by a chocolate/confectionary company facing higher cocoa prices would seem to have already hit, with a nearly 100 a share/41% decline from its share price highs in 2023. Prior to the production issues faced in West Africa ravaging Cocoa production, Hershey's was earning nearly 11 a share in eps (based on current prices this would represent a 15 earnings multiple), for the patient investor, this would seem to be a setup for future EPS normalization as the output of cocoa returns to historical levels over the next few years. The current CEO and 20 year veteran of the company recently announced a surprise departure and is stepping down from the role, while Kirk Tanner the unproven Wendy's executive is now at the helm, given the performance and direction of the company being related to external shocks and cost drivers rather than positioning, this would not seem to have any bearing on the operations of the company. The real driver of Hersheys and its earnings will ultimately be the growth of salty snacks, and the costs of input related to cocoa and sugar sourcing, something unchanged by an executive shakeup as operations are already in place. *Investopedia Cocoa Futures History Meanwhile, sugar a critical secondary input for confectionery which initially exploded during the same time frame of cocoa prices hitting Hersheys with a second catastrophe, sugar prices have quietly seen a dramatic pullback. From recent highs around 27 cents per pound, sugar futures have corrected to the 16-cent range. For a company like Hershey's with major exposure to sugary snacks and beverages, this decline is highly accretive to gross margin. Even modest operating leverage here would create a meaningful tailwind to EPS in the coming quarters albeit at a delay. *Investopedia Sugar Futures History Hershey's growth isn't confined to cocoa. The company's strategic investment in salty snacks and better-for-you categories, products such as Pirate's Booty, SkinnyPop, Dot's Pretzels has quietly transformed the earnings profile. Through its 1.6 billion dollar 2021 acquisition of Dots Pretzels, the segment has seen significant growth and expansion, with new product releases and pretzel flavors and continued revenue increases even in times of distress. As salty snacks is the only segment that saw growth in the most recent quarter (isolated from Cocoa issues) this acquisition is not only a clear success, helping offset stagnation in traditional chocolate but also a prudent M&A execution. The product mix shift adds resilience to the brand and allows management to refocus marketing and distribution on higher-margin, diversified lines. The explosive growth of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Wegovyand Ozempic has sparked fears that demand for indulgent foods chocolate,snacks, soda could structurally decline. Hershey's, in particular, has beenflagged as vulnerable. But those concerns are overblown. First, GLP-1 users are still a small fraction of thepopulation. Even if adoption expands, these drugs are primarily prescribed topatients with severe obesity or diabetes this is hardly the core customer basefor an occasional chocolate bar. Hershey's isn't selling candy to peoplelooking to replace their meals; it's selling to people looking for a treat orsnack, also bolstered by spending in holidays such as Halloween, valentines andEaster which realistically would not see impacts of weight loss drugs. Second, consumption isn't always rational. Food is cultural,social, and emotional. People don't eat Hershey's because they're hungry, theyeat it as a comfort. GLP-1s may suppress appetite, but they don't eliminatecravings, nostalgia, or impulse buying. Studies even show many users continueto snack; they just eat less overall, not less of everything. Third, Hershey's is diversifying. Its salty snack portfolio Dot'sPretzels, SkinnyPop, Pirate's Booty is growing faster than traditional candy,and better aligns with evolving consumer preferences. These are products withpermissible indulgence appeal and strong brand power, regardless of whetherthe buyer is on said drugs. Finally, even if there's modest volume pressure ahead, thepricing power and premium brand equity Hershey's holds gives it room tomaneuver. It's not a volume play, it's a brand play with staples such as Reese's which have survived over a century. Admittedly, price-to-earnings multiples look elevated (25 earnings multiple) due to depressed trailing earnings. But this is a textbook case where a rearview mirror approach misleads. If earnings normalize even back to 2022 levels current multiples would compress meaningfully. The setup is not unlike other staples stocks in recent history: an earnings trough masked by mid term cost inflation. Long-term pricing power, brand strength, and improving cost structure should support a return to historical EPS growth trends, while the EPS will likely not show immediate improvement, over time as the cocoa crisis fades, a return to the 2024 level of 11 eps is possible on cost/input prices reduction alone (assuming no business expansion) and would set the company at a deeply discounted 15 price to earnings. Hershey's isn't exciting, but it's set for a return to normalcy, with the worst of cocoa inflation likely to be behind us in the near future, sugar costs plunging, and supply chains healing, HSY offers an underappreciated recovery story. Add in growing success in non-chocolate categories, and this boring consumer staple could be set for a comeback. The business world is bound by reality and if you are expecting it to be a smooth ride or a rapid recovery, this stock is likely not for you, for those who can be patient, the stock is set up for a solid return. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio

How the cataclysmic Texas floods unfolded, minute by minute
How the cataclysmic Texas floods unfolded, minute by minute

Washington Post

time06-07-2025

  • Climate
  • Washington Post

How the cataclysmic Texas floods unfolded, minute by minute

HUNT, Texas — The 750 campers were sound asleep in their bunk beds in the early morning hours of July 4, expecting to wake up to a day of celebrations — a fireworks show and special treats of Hershey's bars and Coca-Cola by the lake that evening. Instead, many were awakened by the ominous crack of thunder and flashes of lightning, clutching each other in the narrow beds for comfort. Others were roused in the dark by shouts and breaking glass as their teenage counselors smashed the cabin windows with rocks to try to pull them from the floodwaters of the Guadalupe River, which seemed to rise in a matter of minutes.

Krispy Kreme is bringing back a limited-edition fan favorite for World Chocolate Day
Krispy Kreme is bringing back a limited-edition fan favorite for World Chocolate Day

Yahoo

time06-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Krispy Kreme is bringing back a limited-edition fan favorite for World Chocolate Day

Krispy Kreme is celebrating World Chocolate Day by bringing back a rarely offered fan favorite. On July 7, Krispy Kreme will be adding limited-edition Chocolate Glazed Doughnuts to the menu for one day only, the company said in a news release. The American doughnut chain said the one-day special will be coated with Hershey's chocolate for the first time ever. "Krispy Kreme is upping its chocolate game on World Chocolate Day, enriching its fan-favorite but rarely offered Chocolate Glazed doughnuts with delicious Hershey's chocolate glaze," the company said in a news release, adding Monday will be the first time since the last World Chocolate Day when Krispy Kreme will offer this product. In addition, Krispy Kreme is also offering 50% off a dozen Chocolate Glazed doughnuts with the purchase of any dozen at regular price, to make this year's "celebration even sweeter." Need a break? Play the USA TODAY Daily Crossword Puzzle. The chocolate glazed doughnuts will only be available in-store and for pickup or delivery via Krispy Kreme's app and website while supplies last at participating stores, the company added. Find a list of participating stores here. 'Krispy Kreme fans always anticipate we'll return our Chocolate Glazed doughnuts on World Chocolate Day, so this year we're making it extra special and extra chocolatey by adding Hershey's to the glaze for the first time," Krispy Kreme Chief Growth Officer Dave Skena said in a statement. "It's amazing, but only for one day. So, don't miss out on this." Saman Shafiq is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach her at sshafiq@ and follow her on X and Instagram @saman_shafiq7. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Chocolate glazed doughnuts return at Krispy Kreme: How to get one

McDonald's introduces new menu item
McDonald's introduces new menu item

The Independent

time02-07-2025

  • Business
  • The Independent

McDonald's introduces new menu item

McDonald's has added the Daily Double burger to its national menu, expanding its value meal offerings. The Daily Double features two beef patties, American cheese, shredded lettuce, diced onions, tomato, and mayonnaise. This new burger will be included as an option in the McValue Meal Deal bundle, starting July 22, offering customers more for less. The launch coincides with a week-long boycott of McDonald's organized by The People's Union USA, which accuses the chain of price gouging, an allegation McDonald's denies. McDonald's also recently introduced two limited-time dessert items last month: the Hershey's S'mores McFlurry and the Blueberry & Crème Pie.

This Viral Air Fryer S'Mores Dip Is Still the Perfect Comfort Snack
This Viral Air Fryer S'Mores Dip Is Still the Perfect Comfort Snack

CNET

time22-06-2025

  • Entertainment
  • CNET

This Viral Air Fryer S'Mores Dip Is Still the Perfect Comfort Snack

After a TikTok of air fryer s'mores dip popped up on my For You page, I had to try it. Now, a year later, this snack is just as tasty as ever. TikTok users were shocked that they hadn't thought of making this snack before, and so was I. However, I was happily surprised by how easy it looked to whip up. TikTok user Cecilie Bak Klemens shared the video of her making the mouthwatering dip in her air fryer, and that post has since garnered more than 75 million views and a host of hilariously relatable comments, including some from well-known brands. "All of a sudden we know what we're making for breakfast, lunch, and dinner tomorrow," Pinterest commented on the now-viral video. I knew I had to try this snack, and I'm happy to report that it was as simple as the 12-second TikTok made it seem. Here's how you can make this s'mores dip whenever you're craving it -- no fire pit needed. Read more: Best Air Fryers of 2025 How to make air fryer s'mores dip Step 1: Line your airfryer with parchment paper that's trimmed to the size of your basket, or use a removable air fryer basket that can be cleaned separately. (This step is optional but will cut down on cleaning time.) Step 2: Place marshmallows inside the air fryer, along with chunks of the chocolate of your choice. (We used classic Hershey's chocolate.) You can use as many, or as few, marshmallows as you like, then add an equal amount of chocolate pieces. Corin Cesaric/CNET Step 3: Cook at 375 degrees for 10 minutes or until the marshmallows are golden brown. Step 4: Let the dip cool slightly, then enjoy it with graham crackers. The outside of your s'mores dip will be slightly crunchy and golden brown, and the inside will be perfectly gooey. Corin Cesaric/CNET If the dip hardens while you're eating it, you can pop it back in the air fryer for a few minutes until you get the desired consistency again. Read more: Everything You've Always Wanted to Know About Air Fryers (but Were Afraid to Ask) How to clean your air fryer Although this recipe seems like it would create quite the mess, using a separate removable baking pan or parchment paper makes the clean up is a breeze. However, if you have some overflow or your air fryer is simply due for its cleaning, follow these three simple steps. Air fryer s'mores dip FAQ Can you make traditional s'mores using an air fryer? Yes! If you want to skip the dip and make your s'mores whole, you can place the bottom graham cracker, chocolate and marshmallow in the air fryer (don't forget the parchment paper!) and toast it for a few minutes. When it's done, use another graham cracker to squish your creation together. Is there anything you can't cook in the air fryer? While the air fryer perfectly cooks a lot of things, some are just better when made with different appliances, such as leafy greens and large cuts of meat. Here are six more foods that shouldn't be cooked in your air fryer. More air fryer recipes to try

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