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Economic Times
02-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
4 reasons why Reliance Industries shares could rally up to 18%
Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India's most valued company, could surge as much as 18% from current levels, driven by strong prospects in its new energy ventures, an expected rebound across key business verticals, and bullish technical signals. ADVERTISEMENT Analysts at brokerages including Nuvama and CLSA have cited multiple tailwinds that may power the next leg of the stock's rally, with target prices ranging from Rs 1,650 to as high as Rs 1,801. The stock was trading at Rs 1,518.65 on the BSE on Wednesday, July 2, down 0.6%. While RIL shares have underperformed over the last one year, falling 2.7%, they have rebounded smartly in recent months, gaining 24.4% in the last six months, 21.2% in the last three months, and 4.7% in the past week alone. Nuvama has assigned the highest Street target of Rs 1,801 for Reliance, citing a potential re-rating similar to the one seen after the 2017 Jio launch. The firm's optimism stems from RIL's aggressive push in the New Energy space, particularly in solar its recent analyst meeting, RIL announced the operationalisation of its first 1GW Heterojunction Technology (HJT) module manufacturing line, which will eventually scale to a fully integrated 10GW capacity by early calendar year 2026. Nuvama's channel checks suggest RIL has already begun offering these modules in the domestic market, even before its power generation arm goes live."RIL's modules business (20GW capacity) yields an EV of $20bn, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL—similar to the trend seen post-RJIO's launch in 2017. RIL's New Energy rollout shall not only add 50%-plus to PAT, but also rerate valuations, including the O2C business given its net zero-carbon target by 2035," said Nuvama analysts Jal Irani and others. ADVERTISEMENT The brokerage estimates profit after tax (PAT) from the New Energy segment, including modules and power, to grow from Rs 20 billion in FY27 to Rs 114 billion by FY30, a compound annual growth rate of 140% over FY26–30. The share of New Energy in total PAT could hit 9% by FY30 under conservative assumptions, with a faster ramp-up potentially delivering further upside. On the charts, RIL is showing strong bullish undertones. The stock is currently trading above all its key simple moving averages — 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 50-day, 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day — suggesting strength across both short-term and long-term time frames. ADVERTISEMENT Momentum indicators support this view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 70.6, in overbought territory, which typically signals strong buying pressure, albeit with a possibility of a short-term pullback. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at 25.6 and remains above both the center and signal lines, further reinforcing the ongoing uptrend. ADVERTISEMENT According to CLSA, Reliance is entering a critical earnings cycle, starting with its first-quarter results (Q1FY26) expected later in July. The brokerage sees this as a turning point following a subdued FY25."Reliance Industries is entering into an exciting period, beginning with its 1QFY26 earnings, where we expect to see notable improvements in KPIs across its key businesses," CLSA analyst Vikash Kumar Jain said, maintaining an 'outperform' rating and a target price of Rs 1,650, implying a 8.6% potential upside. ADVERTISEMENT CLSA believes that last year's drag was primarily due to operational streamlining in retail, which has now concluded. The brokerage expects Reliance Retail to report high-teens EBITDA growth year-on-year from Q1 telecom, Jio added 2.6 million mobile subscribers in April 2025 alone, as per TRAI data. Jain noted that broadband subscriber additions, including AirFiber, could lead to 9–10 million new subscribers in Q1, more than the total 6 million added in all of CLSA's GRM (gross refining margin) marker indicates a quarter-on-quarter gain of $1.1/bbl, which could boost profitability in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment. RIL's upcoming annual general meeting, expected in August or September, is likely to be a key event for investors. CLSA believes the AGM could provide updates on a possible Jio IPO, along with developments in the quick commerce, FMCG, and new energy businesses. "Accordingly, watch out for the upcoming AGM in August/September. We are raising the SotP-based target price to Rs 1,801, highest on Street, to factor in the potential for higher-than-than-expected module profits; reiterate 'buy'," Nuvama the 2024 AGM, RIL had announced its ambition to increase the New Energy segment's PAT contribution to over 50% by 2030. Nuvama expects additional New Energy businesses, including a planned 30GWh battery facility, electrolyser manufacturing via a partnership with Nel ASA, and 55 upcoming compressed biogas (CBG) plants, to contribute in a phased manner. While RIL shares have already gained over 25% in 2025 so far, analysts see more room to run, backed by structural growth in green energy, improving fundamentals in retail and telecom, and key catalysts on the horizon. With the highest target at Rs 1,801, the implied upside from current levels stands at nearly 18%, making the stock one to watch in the coming months. Also read | Solar a Jio moment for Mukesh Ambani? Reliance shares get highest target price (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
28-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Reliance Industries share price prediction: Brokerages see up to 31% upside after Q4 results
Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) reported a better-than-expected March quarter performance. India's largest conglomerate posted a 2% year-on-year (YoY) rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 19,407 crore, beating analysts' estimates of Rs 18,471 crore, which was followed by the brokerage firms lifting its target price as high as Rs 1,708. This indicates a 31% upside potential in the stock from its closing price on the BSE on Friday. Additionally, after the Q4 earnings announcement, the stock, on Monday, surged 4.4% to an intraday high of Rs 1,357.50 on the BSE. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Well-design 2bhk in Chattarpur South Delhi A D Infra Learn More Undo In its Q4 earnings, RIL's revenue from operations grew 10% YoY to Rs 2.64 lakh crore during the same period. Following the earnings announcement, multiple brokerages raised their target prices on the stock, citing steady performance across segments and strong growth visibility. Based on the revised targets, analysts see an upside potential of up to 31%. Here is what they say: Live Events Nuvama: Buy | Target price: Rs 1,708 Among the brokerages, Nuvama Institutional Equities was the most bullish, setting a target price of Rs 1,708. It said RIL's Q4 EBITDA of Rs 438 billion, a 3% YoY increase, was supported by strong performance across segments. Nuvama also highlighted that the commissioning of RIL's Heterojunction Technology (HJT) module manufacturing facility would unlock new opportunities in the New Energy vertical. CLSA: Outperform | Target price: Rs 1,650 CLSA also turned positive on the stock, raising its target price to Rs 1,650. It highlighted that RIL's Q4 PAT came ahead of estimates, and management commentary on Reliance Retail's growth trajectory was encouraging. CLSA pointed out that Reliance has now committed to strengthening its quick-commerce business, offering under-30-minute deliveries without hidden charges, which could support growth from FY26 onwards. Nomura: Buy | Target price: Rs 1,650 Nomura maintained its 'Buy' rating on RIL, raising its target price to Rs 1,650 as well. The brokerage flagged three near-term triggers for the stock — scaling up of the new energy business, upcoming tariff hikes in Jio, and the potential IPO or listing of Jio, which could unlock significant shareholder value. Also read: Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki's 7 wealth-building strategies to escape the 9-to-5 grind Morgan Stanley: Overweight | Target price: Rs 1,606 Morgan Stanley echoed a positive view, assigning a target price of Rs 1,606. It noted that Reliance outperformed its operational and earnings expectations, particularly in the retail and oil-to-chemicals (O2C) businesses. Looking ahead, the brokerage identified significant growth levers from the ramp-up of the new energy business and improved traction in consumer brands, especially in fashion and lifestyle segments. JP Morgan: Overweight | Target price: Rs 1,530 Meanwhile, JP Morgan retained an 'Overweight' stance with a target price of Rs 1,530. The brokerage said that the acceleration of Reliance Retail's growth to 16% YoY in both revenue and EBITDA during the fourth quarter was a key positive. It added that with favorable valuations, this momentum could continue to support the stock's upward trajectory. Motilal Oswal: Buy | Target price: Rs 1,515 Motilal Oswal reiterated its 'Buy' rating on RIL with a marginally revised target price of Rs 1,515 from Rs 1,510 earlier. It noted that the fourth quarter saw steady growth in Reliance Retail, while Reliance Jio's performance was slightly weaker. The brokerage trimmed its FY26–27 EBITDA and PAT estimates by 2% due to moderation in Jio and exploration & production (E&P) businesses. However, it projected a 13–14% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in EBITDA and PAT over FY25–27, supported by a robust 21% EBITDA CAGR in Jio and recovery in the retail business. Macquarie: Outperform | Target price: Rs 1,500 Macquarie, on the other hand, set a slightly lower target price of Rs 1,500. It questioned whether RIL is at a potential growth inflection point but acknowledged that Jio was the main contributor to incremental group EBIT during Q4. Retail revenue momentum also improved sequentially, growing from 3% in H1FY25 to 9% in the December quarter, and further to 16% in Q4. While analysts acknowledged that softness in Jio's quarterly performance and moderation in capex remain key monitorables, the overall Street sentiment appears positive. With multiple catalysts lined up — including Jio tariff hikes, New Energy scaling, and potential listings — brokerages believe RIL shares could continue to move higher over the next 12 months. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
