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Business Wire
07-07-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Amid a Cooling Housing Market, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge
ATLANTA & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ICE Mortgage Technology, a neutral provider of a robust end-to-end mortgage platform and part of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), today released its July 2025 Mortgage Monitor report. ICE data reveals that beneath the surface of a broadly cooling but stable housing market, early signs of financial stress are emerging among subsets of homeowners. Pockets of vulnerability can be seen in rising negative equity, increased use of mortgage products that improve short-term affordability, and exposure to student loan debt. Softening home prices expand from the Sunbelt to Western states, driving increased negative equity According to ICE's Home Price Index, annual home price growth slowed to 1.3% in early June, and 30% of the largest markets have seen prices dip by at least a full percentage point from their recent highs. While this deceleration may help affordability, it could potentially weaken the equity positions of borrowers who purchased more recently, particularly those using FHA and VA loans, which are low down payment products. Nationally, one in four seriously delinquent loans would be in a negative equity position if sold at distressed (REO) prices. In certain markets, the figures are more pronounced: in Cape Coral, Fla., 27% of all 2023 and 2024 vintage loans are now underwater, while in Austin, Texas, the rate is 18% among 2022 vintage loans. ARM and temporary buydown usage reflect affordability pressure More than 8% of borrowers financed homes with ARMs or temporary buydowns this year, which reduce monthly payments in the first years of the loan. While these loans provide short-term relief, they may introduce future payment shock, particularly if interest rates remain elevated or reset higher. Student loan delinquency greatly increases mortgage delinquency risk The return of both payments and collection efforts on defaulted federal student loans, which resumed in May after a five-year pause, may put additional financial strain on some homeowners. Analysis of ICE McDash data and ICE Tradelines data powered by TransUnion shows that nearly 20% of mortgage holders also carry student loan debt. Among FHA borrowers, that number rises to nearly 30%. Borrowers delinquent on student loans are four times more likely to be delinquent on their mortgage. 'While the slowdown in home price growth may be easing affordability pressures, and negative equity volumes remain low, we're beginning to see localized pockets of recent homebuyers becoming financially exposed,' said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. 'Borrowers with minimal equity — particularly those who purchased recently — are often the first to be exposed when home prices soften. These early signs of stress highlight the importance of monitoring borrower-level risk as market conditions evolve.' Meanwhile, ICE Home Price Dynamics is beginning to show the impact of softening home prices on equity positions in credit risk transfer (CRT) securitizations with the majority of CRT deals issued in 2023 and 2024 having seen modest upticks in negative equity rates in recent months. 'As figures from the July Mortgage Monitor bear out, national averages don't tell the full story,' said Tim Bowler, President of ICE Mortgage Technology. 'We're seeing early signs of risk building within specific markets and within specific borrower populations, like borrowers with limited equity or who are behind on student loans. This is when proactive monitoring and data-driven risk management become essential. Identifying and engaging these borrowers early may prevent hardship later.' The full July Mortgage Monitor report contains a deeper analysis of May mortgage performance, a housing market update featuring June ICE Home Price Index (HPI) data, an analysis of the impact of student loans on homeowners and a look at loan origination operational trends. Further detail, including charts, can be found in this month's Mortgage Monitor report. About the ICE Mortgage Monitor ICE manages the nation's leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 160 million historical records. The ICE Home Price Index provides one of the most complete, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering 95% of U.S. residential properties down to the ZIP code level. In addition, the company maintains one of the most robust public property records databases available, covering 99.9% of the U.S. population and households from more than 3,100 counties. ICE's research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor report. To review the full report, visit: About Intercontinental Exchange Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds, and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE's futures, equity, and options exchanges -- including the New York Stock Exchange -- and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world's largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines, and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity. Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located here. Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading 'Key Information Documents (KIDS).' Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 -- Statements in this press release regarding ICE's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as filed with the SEC on February 6, 2025. Source: Intercontinental Exchange Category: Mortgage Technology ICE-CORP
Herald Sun
30-06-2025
- Business
- Herald Sun
Melbourne property prices rise again amid renewed demand
Melbourne is gaining momentum for home price growth in June, with new PropTrack data confirming the city's long-awaited property market recovery is finally taking hold. Photo: iStock Melbourne's housing market is gaining momentum, with new figures showing prices have risen for a second consecutive month and annual growth turned positive for the first time in more than two years. PropTrack's latest Home Price Index reveals home values climbed 0.3 per cent in June, taking Melbourne's annual growth to 1 per cent. The median home value now sits at $818,000, up $10,600 over the past year, despite remaining 1.1 per cent below the March 2022 peak. RELATED: Hamptons-style Melb home set to turn heads Auction twist as newcomers seize Greenvale keys Melb's ultimate $10m+ property checklist PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said it was a clear sign the city had turned the corner. 'Melbourne has been one of the weakest-performing capital city markets over the past five years, but we are now seeing momentum return,' Ms Creagh said. 'That's largely due to improved buyer confidence off the back of expected rate cuts and Melbourne's relative affordability, especially when compared to cities like Sydney and Brisbane.' PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh says momentum is building in Melbourne's market, with confidence returning and values rising for a fourth straight month. New data reveals how Melbourne's property market is bouncing back, with values rising and buyer demand heating up across the city. Melbourne's $3000 month on month keeps the city's median dwelling price – combining houses and units – below Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth and Sydney in June. Ms Creagh said unit values, now just 3.6 per cent shy of their previous peak, are benefiting as buyers 'move down the value chain', she added. O'Brien Frankston director Mark Burke said outer-metro property markets were heating up, driven by increased activity from first-home buyers and interstate investors. 'There's definitely momentum building across the city,' Mr Burke said. Buyers are back in force at Melbourne auctions, with intense competition and rising confidence driving up home values across the city. 'Interest rates are expected to drop further, and we all know what happens then, prices go up. 'Buyer's agents are often bidding on behalf of Sydney clients now, at one auction we had 12 registered bidders, but a few big knockout bids quickly wiped out the competition.' While regional Victoria posted a slower 0.1 per cent rise in June, Ms Creagh said standout markets were Bendigo, Ballarat and northwest Victoria where annual growth was up to 4.25 per cent. This renovated Frankston North home sold for $852,000, showing Melbourne's gaining momentum. Geelong, the state's largest regional city, saw unit prices rise 1.1 per cent over the past quarter to a median of $555,000 and house prices rise 0.71 per cent in to $761,000. 'It's a value-driven shift that's reshaping growth across the state,' Ms Creagh said. Melbourne Property Advocates director Simon Murphy says buyers priced out of the city are turning to regional hubs like Bendigo for better value and growth potential. Melbourne Property Advocates director Simon Murphy said affordability was also drawing interest to regional areas. 'Buyers who once looked in suburbs like Sunshine are now turning to Bendigo, where $650,000 can buy a home, allow for renovations, and deliver $200,000 in equity gains before you even move in,' Mr Murphy said. Jellis Craig Bendigo director Matt Leonard said the regional city remained a hot spot, even with higher taxes in Victoria. 'We're now dealing with buyers' advocates from WA, QLD, SA and NSW, all chasing investment properties here,' Mr Leonard said. PROPTRACK HOME PRICE INDEX JUNE 2025 Region Monthly Growth % Annual Growth % Annual Growth $ Sydney 0.5% 3.3% $47,500 Melbourne 0.3% 1.0% $10,600 Brisbane 0.3% 8.3% $74,800 Adelaide 0.6% 9.8% $71,500 Perth 0.3% 7.8% $64,700 Hobart 0.5% 2.3% $14,300 Darwin 0.2% 5.8% $31,900 Canberra 0.3% 0.5% $15,200 Capital cities 0.4% 4.1% $43,900 Regional NSW 0.3% 4.3% $33,100 Regional Vic 0.1% 1.2% $13,200 Regional Qld 0.5% 9.2% $70,700 Regional SA 0.4% 12.9% $56,400 Regional WA 0.4% 10.9% $51,400 Regional Tas 0.1% 3.3% $19,700 Regional NT 0.1% 1.5% $1,700 Regional areas 0.3% 6.0% $40,900 Nationally 0.4% 4.6% $40,900 Source: PropTrack Sign up to the Herald Sun Weekly Real Estate Update. Click here to get the latest Victorian property market news delivered direct to your inbox. MORE: James Packer's new deal at Melbourne supermarket site Inside 'Hospitality Yoda's luxe Melb home Tragic side of Aus housing crisis exposed
Global News
16-06-2025
- Business
- Global News
Home sales up 3.6% in May after ‘delayed' start to peak season: CREA
Worries about tariffs and the trade war may have been weighing on the minds of potential home buyers and sellers, but the month of May showed some upward momentum, which could signal that the housing market is starting to warm up as summer officially approaches. 'May 2025 not only saw home sales move higher at the national level for the first time in more than six months, but prices at the national level also stopped falling,' said Shaun Cathcart, senior economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 'There is a sense that maybe the expected turnaround in housing activity this year was just delayed for a few months by the initial tariff chaos and uncertainty.' According to the latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association, national home sales in May were up 3.6 per cent compared to April of this year, and the number of new properties added to the market increased by 3.1 per cent in the same period. Story continues below advertisement 1:36 Uncertainty in B.C. real estate market sees lowest home sales in a decade The CREA also highlighted that the increase last month was led by more activity in hot markets like the Greater Toronto Area, Calgary and Ottawa. Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy This still represents a cooler market than the same time in 2024, and that's mainly because of uncertainty about the economy due to the trade war and other factors weighing on buyers and sellers. The national average sale price in May was 1.8 per cent lower than last year. When adjusting for seasonal factors, the Home Price Index was relatively unchanged in May compared to April of this year. Potential buyers may have been waiting on the sidelines for concerns about the trade war to settle, as well as to see how interest rates might be affected. As the Bank of Canada continues with its 'wait and see' approach in determining whether to make any changes to borrowing costs, which have a direct effect on mortgage costs, buyers who had been waiting for rates to decrease further may have been putting down offers on homes in May. Story continues below advertisement Although this is a promising sign for the housing market, the CREA findings are mostly based on national averages, and it's important to consider individual needs and preferences. 'Overall (there were) more sellers and buyers (in May) compared to April … it seems like this may carry over into June as well,' said CREA chair Valérie Paquin. 'If you're looking to buy or sell a property heading into the second half 2025, you'll need to understand how national trends are — or are not — playing out locally.'
Mercury
02-06-2025
- Business
- Mercury
Speed bumps sidestepped as growth momentum builds
When a federal election is looming, property markets tend to be softer, but a new report shows Tasmanian real estate kicking off 2025 with increasing growth. While cost-of-living pressures remain top of mind for family budgets, more people bought homes in the March quarter than the previous quarter, or at the same time in 2024. And values are on the up. The Real Estate Institute of Tasmania's March Quarterly report found these 2399 sales were worth $1.48bn. This cumulative value was an increase of 1.6 per cent on the previous quarter and compared to March 2024, was up by 7.3 per cent. Tasmania's median house price increased 1.6 per cent for the quarter to $620,000, which was a 3.3 per cent increase over March last year. Launceston and the North West median house prices were up by 1.3 and 1 per cent. Hobart decreased by 3 per cent. MORE: Interstate developer to put stamp on 'gateway' site How much 1990s Hobart homes would cost today With property prices soaring interstate, Tasmania is re-emerging as an option for investment spending. The report showed a 'sharp rise' in interest from mainland investors. They accounted for almost half (46.5 per cent) of all investor purchases during the quarter, significantly above the two-year average of 31.8 per cent. Statewide, rental vacancies were steady at 2 per cent. However, demand saw the median rent for a three-bedroom home in Hobart increase by $10 to $560 per week. Launceston rents decreased $30 to $450 per week, while the North West centres added $15 to $430 per week. Historic Richmond was the quarter's standout price performer with a median of $1.66m, followed by Sandy Bay, Kingston Beach and East Launceston. The West retained the affordability crown with Queenstown houses selling for a $165,000 median value. There were 211 sales in March in excess of $1m. While this was more than March 2024, it was a handful less than the December quarter. As recently as 2019, Tasmanians recorded just 175 sales at this level in an entire year. While 447 first-home buyers got their foot on the ladder over the quarter, this was a 13 per cent decrease compared year-on-year. REIT president Russell Yaxley said Tasmania real estate takes a 'slow and steady approach', avoiding the volatile ebbs and flow activity that are common in larger cities. 'Our market has clearly recovered from its slowdown — late 2023 to early 2024 — and signs look positive for a rebound into 2025,' he said. 'Increasing demand with diminishing stock levels over 2025 will see increased pressure placed on property for sale and rentals over this coming year.' Meanwhile, PropTrack's latest monthly Home Price Index shows continued gains with Hobart, which was up by 0.3 per cent in May and 2.58 per cent annually to post a median home value of $685,000 while remaining the second-cheapest city behind only Darwin. Regional Tasmania was down 0.29 per cent in May and 1.78 per cent higher annually, with a $526,000 median home value. REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh said the rise in home prices was largely driven by falling interest rates. 'With interest rates falling, price momentum has increased and broadened, with all capitals seeing prices lift in May,' she said. 'Lower interest rates have lifted borrowing capacities and boosted buyer demand.'
Perth Now
29-05-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
‘Just stop': Surprise act hurting homebuyers
Potential first-home buyers are falling further behind due to the very schemes designed to get them into a home. Independent economist Saul Eslake said the best thing the government could do to help first-home buyers would be to remove concessions that allow them to buy a home. 'The question isn't what they should be doing, it's what they should not be doing,' he told NewsWire. 'What they have to stop doing is things that needlessly inflate demand for housing. 'Stop giving out what I call second-home vendor grants as I call them because that is where the money ends up.' Australia's housing market has almost instantly reacted to interest rate cuts. NewsWire/ Nadir Kinani Credit: News Corp Australia 'Stop giving stamp duty concessions, all they do is allow people to pay the vendor what they would have paid to the state government and back away from the mortgage deposit guarantee schemes and shared equity schemes,' he said. Mr Eslake said these policies, which are designed to help first-home buyers, simply end up inflating house prices. 'While a shared equity scheme sounds like a good idea, in practice, if you're willing to buy a $400,000 house and the government says 'hey, we will give you 20 per cent', then buyers say 'oh good, I can now afford a $500,000 house'. 'So a $400,000 house becomes a $500,000 house, so it's more a matter of just stop needlessly inflating demand.' One of the key election policies the Albanese government ran on was its expansion of the First Home Guarantee scheme, which is sometimes called the 5 per cent deposit scheme. This program allows first-home buyers to purchase property with a deposit as little as 5 per cent, with the government effectively guaranteeing the other 15 per cent, allowing first-home buyers to avoid paying lenders' mortgage insurance. But in an updated version of the scheme to come into effect at the start of 2026, caps of $125,000 for singles and $200,000 for couples will be removed. The PropTrack April Home Price Index showed national house prices hit a new record high over the month of April, increasing by 0.2 per cent monthly or 3.7 per cent compared with the same time last year. Australia's Cash Rate 2022 Helia chief executive and managing director Pauline Blight-Johnston said the main risk to the latest policy was the removal of the income caps to get government help. 'Our belief is that we will achieve the most as an economy if the government help is directed towards those that need it the most, and those that are able to help themselves through private enterprise do so without the taxpayers' dollar,' she told NewsWire. 'At the end of the day, our view is that taxpayers' dollars should go to those that really need the help to get into the market, such as essential workers or others that are really struggling.' Ms Blight-Johnston said expanding the HGS didn't address the fundamental underlying issue for those struggling to buy their first home – a shortage of affordable supply. She fears that the government's housing schemes just worsen housing affordability by fuelling demand and driving up prices. As Australian house prices hit record highs for a fifth consecutive month, it is harder for first-home buyers to get into the market. NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard Credit: News Corp Australia Instead, she pointed to first-home buyers using lenders' mortgage insurance as a 'really powerful tool' that is often misunderstood. 'People think of it as a fee …. But if you think of it differently as a wealth creation tool and it allows you to get into a home earlier, on average people that use LMI get in around nine years earlier and around $100,000 better off after five years because they got into the market earlier,' she said. Ms Blight Johnston said mortgage holders would typically pay 1 to 2 per cent as a premium above their usual repayments if they took on LMI. 'If you think property goes up on average 4 or maybe 5 per cent a year, if it is going to take you more than six months to save the deposit, the extra 15 per cent — as LMI takes the deposit down from 20 to 5 per cent – you're going to be ahead by getting into the market earlier and paying the premium.' Mr Eslake said LMI could increase demand for property if it acted like a reduction in interest rates. 'We know whenever interest rates go down, people borrow more and pay more for the house they buy which results in higher prices,' he said.
