Latest news with #Hotspotting
News.com.au
27-06-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Ten Victorian suburbs where home sales have crashed
A new property report has revealed the 10 Victorian suburbs where home sales have crashed hardest — and the findings are a grim warning for buyers betting on the wrong markets. According to Hotspotting's Winter 2025 Price Predictor Index, a wave of former favourites, including Glen Waverley, Doncaster and Geelong West, have seen house or unit sales halved in just 12 months, marking them as the worst performers in the state and some of the weakest nationwide. Burnett family lists Geelong pub after 45 years The report tracked quarterly sales volumes across thousands of suburbs to identify market momentum. And in these 10 postcodes, the momentum has stopped dead. In Glen Waverley, unit sales fell from 84 to 40 per quarter. In Broadmeadows, house sales dropped from 52 to 26. In regional hotspot Geelong West, just 18 homes sold last quarter, less than half the volume seen a year ago. Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder said the declines were not just a statistical blip, but a sign of deeper problems. 'We've seen a clear drop in demand in some key middle-ring and fringe suburbs,' Mr Ryder said. 'Affordability is king right now, and buyers are walking away from areas that don't offer value.' Mr Ryder pointed to unit-heavy suburbs like Doncaster, Box Hill and Williamstown as particularly vulnerable, not because buyers weren't interested in apartments, but because prices no longer made sense. 'You can buy a one-bed apartment in Carlton or Kensington for under $500,000,' he said. 'In Doncaster or Monash, the same thing might cost you $800,000. That's completely out of step.' M R Advocacy director and buyers agent Madeleine Roberts said oversupply was to blame for many of the unit market struggles. 'There's no scarcity in these areas, and no urgency. That kills capital growth,' Ms Roberts said. 'If someone asked me what to avoid, I'd say most Melbourne apartments, they just don't deliver returns.' Ms Roberts said suburbs like Glen Waverley, Doncaster and Box Hill were once driven by international student and overseas family demand, but that demand hasn't fully returned since Covid. And the oversupply left behind has been dragging down the market ever since. 'It's not rocket science. Too much supply, not enough buyers, and poor affordability, that's a dangerous mix,' she said. Even fringe family areas like Thornhill Park and Trafalgar weren't immune. In both suburbs, Hotspotting data shows house sales have slowed sharply, a pattern Mr Ryder says is typical of estates with endless new land releases, which erode scarcity and limit long-term price growth. But not all suburbs in the decline list are slowing for the same reasons. Buxton Geelong East director Tony Moorfoot said Geelong West's drop in house sales was less about demand, and more about supply. 'People move into Geelong West and don't want to leave,' Mr Moorfoot said. 'It's tightly held, so when listings dry up, so do sales.' Mr Moorfoot said prices in the area had remained steady, and that recent buyer activity, especially from interstate, suggested confidence was already returning. 'The worst of the panic is behind us. We're seeing interest from interstate buyers who see value in Geelong now that prices have cooled,' he said. Victoria's tax regime, however, is proving a much bigger problem. All three experts pointed to land tax hikes, tight rental reforms, and investor compliance blowouts as major barriers for buyers, particularly 'mum and dad' landlords who now feel squeezed from every direction. 'We've lost more than 24,000 rental properties in a year,' Mr Ryder said. 'When you're already losing money and then get hit with thousands more in tax, the only option is to sell.' Ms Roberts said many local investors were still paralysed, waiting for a more stable landscape, while interstate investors were pouncing. 'They've already made their money in Perth and Brisbane,' she said. 'Now they're looking at Melbourne and saying: this is next.' While some suburbs on the list may rebound, the M R Advocacy director said buyers need to do their homework. 'Don't just follow headlines, follow fundamentals,' Ms Roberts said. 'There's still opportunity out there. But you have to cut through the noise.' The Eight Victorian suburbs now on Hotspotting's bottom 50 declining markets list: Box Hill (units) – Whitehorse Broadmeadows (houses) – Hume Doncaster (units) – Manningham Geelong West (houses) – Greater Geelong Glen Waverley (units) – Monash Thornhill Park (houses) – Melton Trafalgar (houses) – Baw Baw Williamstown (units) – Hobsons Bay
News.com.au
26-06-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
‘Overheating': price falls imminent in once trendy suburbs
They were once an affordable refuge for home buyers crushed under the weight of mounting bills and higher interest rates, but exhausted property seekers are increasingly bailing out. New figures have revealed parts of Sydney's 'mortgage belt' of more affordable middle-ring suburbs have begun to overheat after years of runaway home price rises that defied then higher interest rates. There was a similar trend in parts of Perth, where demand has begun to cool after close to three years of extreme price hikes, along with isolated pockets of Melbourne and regional NSW. Property sales in these areas are now on a downward trajectory with five quarters of decreasing sales volumes and the prospect of an adjustment in prices, according to data from researcher Hotspotting. Hotspotting noted that 17 of the 50 national markets with the steepest declines in property transactions were in Sydney, with falling demand suggesting imminent price falls in some cases. Another 17 of the 50 markets with the fastest declines in transactions were in WA, mostly in Perth, with an additional five suburbs in Melbourne. Many of Sydney's worst performers were spread across the Greater Parramatta region and included Auburn, Granville, Lidcombe, North Rocks and Wentworth Point. Others were in the southwest, including Bankstown, Greenacre and Bexley, and in the inner west, Newtown and Leichhardt. Melbourne suburbs included Box Hill, Broadmeadows, Doncaster, Glen Waverley and Thornhill Park. Hottspotting analyst Terry Ryder said prices in these areas were likely to 'stagnate or fall' for some time. Some of the Sydney suburbs had lost the relative affordability that had once made them sought after, he added. 'These were areas that were more affordable and were popular because of it, but they're not so affordable anymore and there has been an exodus to (other) markets,' Mr Ryder said. It was no surprise that the bulk of the national markets with falling transaction levels were in Sydney – given how much higher prices were in the Harbour City relative to other capital, he added. 'What's happening in a lot of these once more affordable areas follows a trend that's happening across the wider Sydney market, where the lack of affordability is pushing people out.' Mr Ryder said there has been a spike in Sydney tenants becoming 'rentvestors' rather than first-home buyers. He attributed this to rises in the costs of buying homes in even cheaper Sydney markets, which often made an investment property in a lower-priced regional market more attractive. A similar trend, albeit less advanced, was appearing in Perth – a market that has boomed in recent years and, which was until last year, the nation's hottest property market, Mr Ryder said. 'Parts of Perth became frenzied. Too many investors were piling into that market buying anything they could,' he said. 'Some reckless buying caused overheating of the Perth market and prices are passed their peak. That strong growth we once had has evaporated because prices went up so much over two to three years.' SuburbData analyst Jeremy Sheppard said an adjustment in prices was common in markets that had seen sustained rapid growth over a long period of time. 'Eventually markets run out of puff,' he said. 'Buyers will see they get better value somewhere else and there's an adjustment.' NSW: Auburn, Banktown, Bexley, Carlingford, East Lismore, Gledswood Hills, Granville, Greenacre, Helensburgh, Leichhardt, Lidcombe, Lismore, Mascot, Mittagong, Mosman, Newtown, North Rocks, South Lismore, Tallawong, Wentworth Point QUEENSLAND: Bargara, Broadbeach Waters, New Auckland
Herald Sun
25-06-2025
- Business
- Herald Sun
Revealed: Australia's 50 supercharged suburbs for price growth
A suburb once written off is now Australia's hottest housing market, and the property rebound is only getting started. Frankston, in Melbourne's outer south, has topped a new list of Australia's 50 most 'supercharged' suburbs for price growth, with insiders warning buyers could soon be priced out if they hesitate. Hotspotting's Winter 2025 Price Predictor Index highlights suburbs showing surging sales activity, a leading indicator of future price growth. And it's not just Frankston making a move. RELATED: Award-winning house scores six-figure bonus $2m estate boasts three homes, wedding aisle Iconic Melb site snapped up in $23m deal Melbourne suburbs dominated the list with 18 entries, followed by strong results from the Gold Coast, Adelaide, Darwin and even Sydney's south. Melbourne Property Advocates director Simon Murphy said Frankston's transformation was 'just going gangbusters.' 'They're putting up big apartments, office buildings, the hospital's been redone … zoning's been upgraded to three, six storeys in some areas,' Mr Murphy said. 'They're really trying to make Frankston the place to be' Mr Murphy warned entry-level buyers were now struggling to get in. 'You really need a purchase price of $800,000 just to get a look into the market,' he said. 'Frankston North's always the first suburb to go up — and the first to go down — but this time, I think its price will soon catch Langwarrin.' Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder said Frankston's rise reflected a wider turnaround in Melbourne's outer zones. 'Frankston has gone from underperformer to frontrunner,' Mr Ryder said. 'Melbourne began recovering in late 2024 and the uplift has only accelerated this year.' Mr Murphy said demand was now flowing into Carrum Downs, Langwarrin and Werribee, which also made the list. 'Langwarrin's very family-focused. Carrum Downs has stigma but great value — four-bed homes on good land, double garages,' he said. 'Werribee's still under $600,000 and just 10 minutes further than Melton. It's still affordable.' In Sydney, Michelle May Buyers Agent director Michelle May said market momentum had shifted south to the St George and Bankstown corridors, areas now backed by Metro upgrades and comparative affordability. 'The migration from the east has gone to the inner west, and now the inner west demographic is moving down to St George and the Sutherland Shire,' Ms May said. 'We've been inundated with inquiry since Q4 2024. There's a lot of money still out there. 'Clearance rates hit 70 per cent here last weekend for the first time in ages — prices are going up.' But Ms May warned that supply remained tight — especially for downsizers — and three-bedroom apartments were in short supply. 'Downsizers are competing with young families for the same limited stock. They've got deeper pockets — and young families just can't compete,' she said. The Sydney buyers agent said Bankstown and Bexley, both on Hotspotting's list, were benefiting from transport links and better perceived value. 'Cross the Cooks River and you get green space, lifestyle and a 15-20 per cent discount on the inner west,' she said. On the Gold Coast, low stock levels and interstate demand are pushing prices north. Cohen Handler Associate Director Luke Serhan said listings were down up to 40 per cent year-on-year in some suburbs. 'Miami's still a bit undercooked compared to Mermaid Beach, but Elanora is taking off,' Mr Serhan said. 'Southport's been huge — it's central and getting a lot of movement. 'We're seeing so much buyer interest that anything that hits the market becomes competitive instantly.' Mr Serhan said confidence surged the weekend after recent rate cuts. 'Buyers are still picky because they've been used to choice, but I think FOMO is coming back. They'll soon have to buy what's available.' The Cohen Handler Associate Director said lifestyle remained the Gold Coast's trump card. 'People are choosing proximity to the beach over the metro lifestyle of Brisbane. We're even seeing Brissie locals relocating here,' South Australia also made a strong showing, with 11 suburbs and towns on the list including Ingle Farm and Christies Beach. Lands Real Estate's Matthew Lipari said Ingle Farm had seen sales rise steadily over 18 months. 'It's in high demand right now because of its price point and development over the past decade,' Mr Lipari said. He said the demographic was changing quickly. 'Older vendors who've lived here 20, 30, 40 years are selling to younger buyers. But even some developers are being priced out — we've seen buyers miss out multiple times at opens and auctions.' Mr Ryder said Adelaide remained one of Australia's most consistent growth cities. 'It's been rising longer than any other and continues to deliver,' he said. The surprise twist in this quarter's index was Darwin, with 92 per cent of suburbs now ranked as rising and none in decline. Hotspotting General Manager Tim Graham said the comeback was real. 'Six months ago we said Darwin was about to boom, and the numbers have proven it,' he said. With national buyer activity rising and listings still tight, experts say the window for bargain buys is closing. 'People are realising the market isn't going to come to them,' Mr Murphy said. 'They're jumping back in, and they're bringing competition.' Additional reporting by Jessica Brown HOTSPOTTING'S TOP 50 SUBURBS FOR CAPITAL GROWTH Sign up to the Herald Sun Weekly Real Estate Update. Click here to get the latest Victorian property market news delivered direct to your inbox. MORE: Global second-hand fashion fave eyes Geelong First-timers' surprise win at Geelong West $5m+ Melb pad has games house, soccer pitch
News.com.au
24-06-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Revealed: Australia's 50 supercharged suburbs for price growth
A suburb once written off is now Australia's hottest housing market, and the property rebound is only getting started. Frankston, in Melbourne's outer south, has topped a new list of Australia's 50 most 'supercharged' suburbs for price growth, with insiders warning buyers could soon be priced out if they hesitate. Hotspotting's Winter 2025 Price Predictor Index highlights suburbs showing surging sales activity, a leading indicator of future price growth. And it's not just Frankston making a move. Melbourne suburbs dominated the list with 18 entries, followed by strong results from the Gold Coast, Adelaide, Darwin and even Sydney's south. Melbourne Property Advocates director Simon Murphy said Frankston's transformation was 'just going gangbusters.' 'They're putting up big apartments, office buildings, the hospital's been redone … zoning's been upgraded to three, six storeys in some areas,' Mr Murphy said. 'They're really trying to make Frankston the place to be' Mr Murphy warned entry-level buyers were now struggling to get in. 'You really need a purchase price of $800,000 just to get a look into the market,' he said. 'Frankston North's always the first suburb to go up — and the first to go down — but this time, I think its price will soon catch Langwarrin.' Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder said Frankston's rise reflected a wider turnaround in Melbourne's outer zones. 'Frankston has gone from underperformer to frontrunner,' Mr Ryder said. 'Melbourne began recovering in late 2024 and the uplift has only accelerated this year.' Mr Murphy said demand was now flowing into Carrum Downs, Langwarrin and Werribee, which also made the list. 'Langwarrin's very family-focused. Carrum Downs has stigma but great value — four-bed homes on good land, double garages,' he said. 'Werribee's still under $600,000 and just 10 minutes further than Melton. It's still affordable.' In Sydney, Michelle May Buyers Agent director Michelle May said market momentum had shifted south to the St George and Bankstown corridors, areas now backed by Metro upgrades and comparative affordability. 'The migration from the east has gone to the inner west, and now the inner west demographic is moving down to St George and the Sutherland Shire,' Ms May said. 'We've been inundated with inquiry since Q4 2024. There's a lot of money still out there. 'Clearance rates hit 70 per cent here last weekend for the first time in ages — prices are going up.' But Ms May warned that supply remained tight — especially for downsizers — and three-bedroom apartments were in short supply. 'Downsizers are competing with young families for the same limited stock. They've got deeper pockets — and young families just can't compete,' she said. The Sydney buyers agent said Bankstown and Bexley, both on Hotspotting's list, were benefiting from transport links and better perceived value. 'Cross the Cooks River and you get green space, lifestyle and a 15-20 per cent discount on the inner west,' she said. On the Gold Coast, low stock levels and interstate demand are pushing prices north. Cohen Handler Associate Director Luke Serhan said listings were down up to 40 per cent year-on-year in some suburbs. 'Miami's still a bit undercooked compared to Mermaid Beach, but Elanora is taking off,' Mr Serhan said. 'Southport's been huge — it's central and getting a lot of movement. 'We're seeing so much buyer interest that anything that hits the market becomes competitive instantly.' Mr Serhan said confidence surged the weekend after recent rate cuts. 'Buyers are still picky because they've been used to choice, but I think FOMO is coming back. They'll soon have to buy what's available.' The Cohen Handler Associate Director said lifestyle remained the Gold Coast's trump card. 'People are choosing proximity to the beach over the metro lifestyle of Brisbane. We're even seeing Brissie locals relocating here,' South Australia also made a strong showing, with 11 suburbs and towns on the list including Ingle Farm and Christies Beach. Lands Real Estate's Matthew Lipari said Ingle Farm had seen sales rise steadily over 18 months. 'It's in high demand right now because of its price point and development over the past decade,' Mr Lipari said. He said the demographic was changing quickly. 'Older vendors who've lived here 20, 30, 40 years are selling to younger buyers. But even some developers are being priced out — we've seen buyers miss out multiple times at opens and auctions.' Mr Ryder said Adelaide remained one of Australia's most consistent growth cities. 'It's been rising longer than any other and continues to deliver,' he said. The surprise twist in this quarter's index was Darwin, with 92 per cent of suburbs now ranked as rising and none in decline. Hotspotting General Manager Tim Graham said the comeback was real. 'Six months ago we said Darwin was about to boom, and the numbers have proven it,' he said. With national buyer activity rising and listings still tight, experts say the window for bargain buys is closing. 'People are realising the market isn't going to come to them,' Mr Murphy said. 'They're jumping back in, and they're bringing competition.' HOTSPOTTING'S TOP 50 SUBURBS FOR CAPITAL GROWTH Suburb Name LGA Property Type Somerton Park Holdfast Bay HOUSE Frankston Frankston HOUSE Wollongong Wollongong UNIT Buderim Sunshine Coast HOUSE Rosebery (NT) Palmerston HOUSE Lake Albert (NSW) Wagga Wagga HOUSE Miami Gold Coast UNIT Port Pirie South Port Pirie HOUSE Werribee Wyndham HOUSE Glenorchy (Tas.) Glenorchy HOUSE Modbury Tea Tree Gully HOUSE Hawthorn East Boroondara HOUSE Norlane Greater Geelong HOUSE Prospect (SA) Prospect HOUSE Little Mountain Sunshine Coast HOUSE Seaton (SA) Charles Sturt HOUSE Christies Beach Onkaparinga HOUSE Runaway Bay Gold Coast UNIT Point Vernon Fraser Coast HOUSE Surfers Paradise Gold Coast UNIT Ascot Vale Moonee Valley HOUSE Encounter Bay Victor Harbor HOUSE Kingston (ACT) Unincorporated ACT UNIT Manor Lakes Wyndham HOUSE Dandenong Greater Dandenong HOUSE Beveridge Mitchell HOUSE Port Augusta Port Augusta HOUSE Sanctuary Point Shoalhaven HOUSE Ingle Farm Salisbury HOUSE Dandenong North Greater Dandenong HOUSE Mermaid Beach Gold Coast UNIT Seaford (Vic.) Frankston HOUSE Meadow Springs Mandurah HOUSE North Melbourne Melbourne UNIT Munno Para West Playford HOUSE Darwin City Darwin UNIT Port Lincoln Port Lincoln HOUSE Clyde (Vic.) Casey HOUSE Taree Mid-Coast HOUSE Port Melbourne Melbourne UNIT Carlton (Vic.) Melbourne UNIT Armstrong Creek (Vic.) Greater Geelong HOUSE Langwarrin Frankston HOUSE Baulkham Hills The Hills Shire HOUSE Carrum Downs Frankston HOUSE Bellamack Palmerston HOUSE Port Macquarie Port Macquarie-Hastings UNIT Mooroolbark Yarra Ranges HOUSE Ryde Ryde UNIT
News.com.au
14-06-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Australia's property shift: Units now outperforming houses
Apartments are now outperforming houses in price growth across most of Australia's capital cities — but Melbourne buyers aren't convinced. A major new report from Hotspotting and Nuestar has flipped Australia's long-held property logic, revealing unit prices are now rising faster than house prices in the majority of capital city markets, driven by affordability pressures, soaring rents and shifting buyer psychology. The analysis shows 62.9 per cent of apartment markets in capital city council areas recorded equal or higher median price growth than houses in the year to May 2025. 'I'd be locked out': Mum's $65k home warning Brisbane led the charge, with 76.3 per cent of its apartment markets outperforming houses. Perth followed closely with 75 per cent, and Sydney wasn't far behind at 71.4 per cent. Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder said the old rule that houses on land always delivered superior capital gains no longer held true. 'The once-dominant paradigm is simply no longer the case,' Mr Ryder said. 'The demand for apartments is being driven by affordability, lifestyle preferences and higher rental yields. And that's showing up in the numbers.' Nuestar founder Michael Wilkins said buyers today were more value-conscious and lifestyle-focused than ever before, and quality apartment design was lifting performance. 'The quality of today's new apartments is worlds apart from the cookie-cutter blocks of 10 years ago,' Mr Wilkins said. 'Buyers want smart floorplans, integrated amenities and access to transport, and that's what's driving performance.' Across Australia, 154,928 apartments were sold over the past 12 months, a number experts expect will continue to grow into 2025. But in Melbourne, the apartment resurgence has failed to land. MR Advocacy director and buyers agent Madeleine Roberts said local demand remained heavily skewed toward houses and villa units, with the inner-city apartment market still burdened by longstanding stigma. 'We're definitely not seeing that trend in Melbourne,' Ms Roberts said. 'Apartments here, particularly in Docklands and the CBD, have underperformed for years. They just don't offer the same growth potential.' While lower prices appealed to some buyers, Ms Roberts said most were still opting to move further from the city in exchange for land. 'We've always been a city that values space,' she said. 'Apartments might be cheaper, but they're not seen as a stepping stone, more like a compromise.' The MR Advocacy director said her firm hadn't bought a single inner-Melbourne apartment on behalf of a client in recent months, instead steering buyers towards villa units and townhouses in Melbourne's middle-ring and outer suburbs. 'There are still good-quality apartments out there, but not all stock is equal,' Ms Roberts said. 'You've got to be careful. Some of these buildings come with high body corporate fees, low growth, and difficult resale.' Ms Roberts said rentvesting was emerging as a smarter strategy for younger buyers. 'Buy where the numbers work, rent where the lifestyle works,' she said. 'It's often cheaper to rent an apartment than to own one here, and you can still build equity elsewhere.' In Brisbane, the apartment surge is already well underway. McGrath Wynnum-Manly principal Gaby McEwan said the unit market had roared back to life, driven by downsizers, first-home buyers and investors. 'We've absorbed that oversupply of apartments we had back in 2014 to 2016,' Ms McEwan said. 'Now we're in a completely different market. There's real scarcity, and real demand.' Ms McEwan said buyers who had been priced out of detached houses were now turning to low-maintenance apartments and two-bedroom townhouses in lifestyle-rich suburbs. 'Two cousins I know recently bought a townhouse on Charlotte St in Wynnum for $710,000,' she said. 'They're rentvesting and know the value's only going up. That's the kind of mindset we're seeing.' The McGrath Wynnum-Manly director said luxury apartments were also in high demand from retirees, but a lack of downsizer-friendly stock and high entry prices were stalling many transitions. 'We've got retirees trying to simplify their lives and move into modern apartments,' Ms McEwan said. 'But some of these new builds start at $1.8m and go as high as $2.3m. In many cases, that's more than what their current house is worth.' She added that without stronger downsizer incentives, many older Australians were staying in large, ageing homes longer than they wanted to — or should. 'I've seen people in their 70s, 80s and even 90s still living in high-maintenance properties, some won't move until they have a fall and it's too late,' Ms McEwan said. 'There's a real housing gap here, and it's hurting the most vulnerable.'
