Latest news with #HouseholdIntegratedEconomicSurvey
Express Tribune
08-07-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Govt making policy on old data
Listen to article Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Tuesday lambasted the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for its failure to timely produce reliable economic and social indicators, as the bureau blamed political turmoil for its inability to timely hold surveys. The proceedings of a meeting held at the Q Block reinforced that the government was making economic decisions based on data, which was 10 years old, and many of the critical official economic numbers were also not reliable, according to officials who attended the meeting. Sources said that the finance minister was perturbed by the delay in having the latest numbers on poverty, unemployment, reliable data on economic growth and other critical indicators. Aurangzeb asked his media adviser Khurram Schehzad and Chief Economist of Pakistan Dr Imtiaz Ahmad to review the sourcing and processing of data by the PBS for the purpose of producing reliable indicators. Sources added that the chief statistician of the PBS claimed that the surveys could not be finalised on time due to political uncertainty. Meeting participants did not accept the explanation and inquired whether any minister issued instructions to stop the surveys. The chief statistician was not available for comments. PBS works under the administrative control of the Ministry of Planning. The meeting was informed that a majority of surveys had been conducted many years ago. A couple of surveys were held last fiscal year but their results were not ready. The finance minister had called the PBS to explain reasons behind the lack of availability of latest and credible data on poverty, unemployment, GDP growth and per capita income. The government's claim that the economy grew 2.7% in the last fiscal year is disputed by many independent experts. The finance minister had also promised to constitute a committee having representation from the private sector to probe the GDP growth figure. So far, he has not established the committee. The chief statistician told the meeting that the economic growth may remain close to 2.7% but the final position would be clear by September this year, said the sources. One of the reasons for disputing the 2.7% growth claim was that the government showed the livestock sector grew 4.8% while the last livestock survey had been conducted in 2005-06. The chief statistician explained that the bureau did not have the exact number of livestock but was working out the sector's growth based on how much fodder was being consumed every year by animals. Questions were also raised over giving 63.6% weight to livestock in the agriculture sector while the share of crops is only one-third. The meeting questioned the PBS for its failure to work out a reliable figure of per capita income. The government had claimed that the per capita income in fiscal year 2024-25 was $1,824 based on a low population number. The country also does not have the latest poverty number, as the last Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) was conducted in 2018-19. HIES measures the income and consumption patterns. The meeting was informed that the HIES 2024-25 field operation had been completed but results would be available by December 2025. About 2,000 blocks and 28,000 households have been covered all over Pakistan. HIES provides information about poverty, undernourishment, food insecurity and quarterly income and consumption patterns. The World Bank last month updated its global threshold to measure poverty, resulting in a significant jump in the number of people living below the poverty line in Pakistan. According to the new $4.20-per-day threshold, which replaced the $3.20 ceiling, poverty increased to 44.7% in Pakistan. The 44.7% figure was exclusive of any adverse impact of Covid-19 and the 2022 devastating floods in Pakistan. Compared to this, the official poverty rate is only 21.3%. The meeting was informed that the last Labour Force Survey had been conducted in 2020-21, which provided five-year-old data. The latest survey has been completed but results will be available in December. The labour force survey provides information about unemployment in the country. PBS also could not conduct the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey, restraining policymakers from providing timely information about education, healthcare, housing, water and sanitation, information technology, food insecurity, disability and migration. There has been a phenomenal increase in migration from Pakistan due to the limited employment opportunities. But there is no survey to gauge it. The meeting was informed that the next round of PSLM is planned for 2026. The situation is also poor in the case of agricultural and manufacturing census and the government is producing GDP growth figures based on old manufacturing structures. The old manufacturing census did not capture the impact of latest disruptive technologies. The last manufacturing census was conducted in 2015 and the next is planned for 2026-27. It provides information on structural changes in large-scale manufacturing industries and assigns weight to the quantum index of manufacturing. Pakistan's national accounts are also based on 2015-16 data, which the PBS is now planning to shift to this year. In the fresh rebasing, the government will also capture economic growth at regional levels. The meeting was informed that the agricultural census field activities had been completed and the tabulation of findings was under process. The census will capture agricultural, livestock and machinery numbers.
Express Tribune
12-06-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
GDP figure based on old data
Listen to article Pakistan's Chief Statistician Dr Naeemuz Zafar said Thursday that the 2.7% economic growth estimate for this fiscal year is based on a 15-year-old livestock survey and assumes full utilisation of the Rs1.1 trillion development budget. While responding to questions about the controversy over this year's economic growth figure along with Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, Dr Zafar claimed that there would be no major downward revision in the 2.7% figure for the outgoing fiscal year. Iqbal also proposed a new formula for resource distribution under the National Finance Commission (NFC), moving away from the current population-centric model. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS)'s chief statistician called objections to the 2.7% growth rate "unfortunate" and said if a committee is formed to investigate, the PBS is ready to appear. The government claims a 2.7% GDP growth this year, which independent economists have disputed, estimating it to be closer to 2%. A major objection concerns the 4.8% livestock sector growth. The livestock sector's 4.8% growth was based on a survey conducted back in 2010, admitted Dr Zafar, adding that there was no deviation from the standard methodology. When asked how the agriculture sector showed 0.6% growth despite a 14% output decline in major crops, Dr Zafar said the growth was driven by livestock, forestry and minor crops. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figure has been worked out in a transparent manner by following a methodology endorsed by the United Nations and the international financial institutions, he said. He also confirmed a new agriculture and livestock census has been completed but awaits the planning minister's approval due to his budget commitments. He added that the Household Integrated Economic Survey, Labour Force Survey, and agriculture census would be ready by October for the next National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting. Leader of the Opposition Omar Ayub Khan raised the disputed GDP issue during the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance meeting held on Thursday. In a statement, the statistician also stated PBS used the full Rs1.1 trillion federal Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) figure for GDP calculationshighlighting a glaring methodological flaw. However, Finance Secretary Imdad Ullah Bosal told the same committee that against the Rs1.1 trillion PSDP allocation, only Rs662 billion had been spent so far. He added that by June-end, spending would remain below the revised Rs967 billion figure. When asked whether the GDP would be drastically revised in the next NAC meeting, Dr Zafar again said no major revision was expected. Speaking at the meeting, the planning minister said the country was on a path to steady economic recovery with a goal of sustainable economic growth. Iqbal added that Pakistan continues to face structural problems of fiscal constraints. Due to limited space, next year's federal PSDP will be just 0.8% of GDPdown from 2.6% seven years ago. The planning minister noted that the federal government's Rs11 trillion net revenues were barely enough to cover defence and debt servicing. "With limited tax contributions, people cannot hope for international standard facilities," said Iqbal. He also called for reforming the NFC award by shifting away from the predominantly population-based distribution formula with broader indicators like education and forestation. Iqbal is the second federal minister after the finance minister to propose a shift in the NFC criteria this week. Currently, 82% of total resources are allocated based on population, which Iqbal argued incentivises population growth, harming national interests. He said the Planning Commission would recommend shifting to a broader formula that rewards education and forest preservation. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, he added, has decided to constitute a Pakistan Population Council, comprising provincial chief ministers, to design strategies for population control. Pakistan's annual population growth rate stands at 2.6% — nearly equal to this year's GDP growth rate. Responding to a question whether the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) took him into confidence before imposing taxes on the digital economy, Iqbal said these were levied with the intent to create a level playing field for conventional retailers. Commenting on the upcoming PSDP, Iqbal said Rs230 billion had been allocated for Balochistan projects from the Rs1 trillion envelope. Despite limited resources, the government would invest more in water reservoirs. He said Diamer Basha Dam with 6 million acre-feet capacity and Mohmand Dam with 1 million acre-feet would be completed by 2030 to mitigate water shortages caused by potential Indian efforts to block Pakistan's share of water. Iqbal added that construction of Diamer Basha Dam would be advanced by two years with increased investment, aiming for completion by 2030 in response to regional water developments. Due to budget constraints, funding for the Higher Education Commission (HEC) has been reduced to Rs39.5 billion. Iqbal suggested provinces should bear the responsibility of funding universities.
Business Recorder
22-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Q3: 2.4pc growth
EDITORIAL: Pakistan's economy rose by 2.4 percent during the third quarter of the current fiscal year (July-March 2025) as per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The credibility of this metric is suspect, given that the projection for the previous two quarters have been revised by the PBS (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics): upgraded to 1.37 percent July-September 2024 against the earlier calculation of 1.34 percent and downgraded to 1.53 percent October-December 2024 against the earlier calculation of 1.73 percent. The in-house capacity to address important gaps in the statistics as per the first review documents uploaded by the International Monetary Fund on its website this Saturday past is being strengthened and 'efforts to enhance the national accounts continue with the PBS publishing quarter estimates of expenditure side for the first time in December.' The Fund further referred to a Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policy (read time bound condition) item that stipulates that 'Data collection for three major surveys (Agriculture Census, Labour Force Survey and Household Integrated Economic Survey) is well underway and the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics will publish the final reports (and post the results to the National Summary Data Page portal) by end December 2025, which will provide a better basis to assess recent developments in key areas of the macroeconomic statistics, and for assessing the adequacy of social spending. Work on a new PPI index has also progressed, including on agreeing modalities with provincial statistics agencies for monthly data collection starting in July 2025. Preparations are also underway to conduct three major surveys in FY26: the Census of Manufacturing Industries, the survey of Small and Household Manufacturing Industries, and the Family Budget Survey, which will incorporate spending on online platforms for the first time.' Calculation of these statistics and the gradual improvement of the capacity to be more accurate and credible than has been the case so far would, one hopes, be used by the Ministry of Finance to take timely decisions rather than allowing an impending financial crisis to compel the administration to seek IMF support. Given the fact that we are currently on the twenty-fourth Fund bailout package disturbingly indicates lack of credible data to take timely decisions, a drawback, that many independent economists accuse successive administrations of purposely manipulating, but also the root cause of Pakistan's current indebtedness. The Fund in its report maintained that 'work on strengthening the Government Financial Statistics is continuing, with the establishment of a GFS team and agreement of a multi-year roadmap for GFS expansion and improvements, including transitioning to GFSM 2014 and incorporating state-owned entities' data.' Or, in other words, there is substantial work involved to strengthen the PBS but more importantly one would hope that the practice of exerting political pressure to manipulate data is abandoned. It is important to note that the growth of 2.4 percent for the third quarter remains suspect for two reasons. First, the administrative measures to meet the IMF condition of ensuring full-cost recovery of poorly performing utilities has raised input costs across the board, which together with tight monetary policy (11 percent discount rate remains higher than the regional average) accounts for negative large scale manufacturing sector growth. And the IMF condition to withdraw industrial incentives (export specific or more general) as well as federal and provincial governments no longer engaging in announcing a support price for some major crops is likely to reduce output next fiscal year. The major growth prospect remains the Public Sector Development Programme, which, historically, is mercilessly slashed as and when the authorities fail to meet the budget deficit target. The growth projection for the current year of 2.6 percent, revised from the earlier estimate of 3.2 percent, by the Fund requires an overambitious growth target in the last quarter, given that the first quarter target is estimated at 1.37 percent, second at 1.53 percent and in the third quarter 2.4 percent. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
