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Business Standard
18-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Dollar index pulls back mildly; set for third straight weekly gain
The dollar index pulled back on Friday morning in Asia following a sharp spike to 3 and half week high in the previous session. Gains in the global reserve currency came on the back of firm US data which supported the Federal Reserves (Fed) stance to hold rates unchanged. US retail sales rose 0.6% on month in June, well above the 0.1% forecast, rebounding from Mays sharp 0.9% drop. Core retail sales, which exclude autos and gas, also climbed 0.5%, up from 0.2% previously. Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000 last week, below the expected 235,000, signaling ongoing tightness in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index surprised to the upside, surging to 15.9 in July from -4.0 in June, far exceeding market expectations of -1. Meanwhile, on Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly called two rate cuts this year a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also said the Fed should cut interest rates 25 basis points at the July meeting. However, FOMC Governor Adriana Kugler noted that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate of interest steady for some time, given low unemployment and building price pressure from tariffs. The dollar index that measures the greenback against a basket of currencies is quoting at 98.24, down 0.22% on the day but is all set for a third straight weekly gain. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Building Permits, and Housing Starts are due later in the day.
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Homebuilding Down, Jobless Claims Up; Fed News Later
Wednesday, June 18, 2025Pre-market futures are holding onto early morning gains, but are lower than they were before this morning's economic data began hitting the tape. Dow futures are now +10 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq +30 points. These are down from 40, 10 and 50 points, we prepare to honor our Juneteenth holiday Thursday with closed banks and stock markets, we see Weekly Jobless Claims pulled a day earlier to this morning. Initial Jobless Claims came in-line with expectations at 245K, 5000 lower than the upwardly revised 250K the prior week, which is the highest level since a one-week blip of 259K back in October of last trailing four-week average in new claims is now 245K — again, directly in-line with today's result and its expectation. The previous four weeks averaged just over 231K, so we can see these numbers creeping up. This has been anticipated by analysts ever since big layoffs at corporations and the federal government began during the first quarter of Claims, reported a week in arrears from initial claims, came in at 1.945 million for two weeks ago. This makes the fourth-straight week longer-term jobless claims have notched above 1.9 million. (There is nothing inherently meaningful in 1.9 million continuing claims other than its proximity to 2 million, by the way.) U.S. Housing Starts for May posted its lowest tally since May 2020 — the heart of the Covid pandemic: 1.256 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units fell nearly -10% month over month from the upwardly revised 1.392 million for April, and far lower than the 1.35 million analysts had anticipated. Building Permits were also below expectations, reaching 1.393 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units in May from 1.42 million estimated (which was the upward revision to the prior month). This again is the lowest print in five years, and demonstrates a cooling housing market continuing to find its way through the current high-mortgage-rate homes were flat month over month, -7% year over year. Multi-family took a -30% hit month over month, off a record number of new builds over the past few years. Permits for multi-family were +13% year over year. The housing market sees strong demand for rentals continuing, which should keep multi-family projects in the lead over single-family. We expect this to continue until mortgage rates start to come down meaningfully. The 'big news' today will be the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell following. There won't be any rate cut today, but we do expect a new 'dot plot' from the Fed, which will tip their hand regarding how many rate cuts the FOMC currently expects to deliver this year, and when they might will be the fourth of eight total FOMC meetings this year: the next will be July, but as per tradition, the Fed will skip August. Odds for a September cut are notably higher, although this might be a matter of economists pushing out their hockey sticks a bit. (You'll recall earlier this year that this June meeting was the latest analysts had expected a first rate cut to occur. But a resilient economy combined with a murky tariff outlook have kept those rate cuts at bay.)Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jobless Claims Tick in Per Expectations
Pre-market futures are holding onto early morning gains, but are lower than they were before this morning's economic data began hitting the tape. Dow futures are now +10 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq +30 points. These are down from 40, 10 and 50 points, respectively. As we prepare to honor our Juneteenth holiday Thursday with closed banks and stock markets, we see Weekly Jobless Claims pulled a day earlier to this morning. Initial Jobless Claims came in-line with expectations at 245K, 5000 lower than the upwardly revised 250K the prior week, which is the highest level since a one-week blip of 259K back in October of last year. The trailing four-week average in new claims is now 245K — again, directly in-line with today's result and its expectation. The previous four weeks averaged just over 231K, so we can see these numbers creeping up. This has been anticipated by analysts ever since big layoffs at corporations and the federal government began during the first quarter of 2025. Continuing Claims, reported a week in arrears from initial claims, came in at 1.945 million for two weeks ago. This makes the fourth-straight week longer-term jobless claims have notched above 1.9 million. (There is nothing inherently meaningful in 1.9 million continuing claims other than its proximity to 2 million, by the way.) U.S. Housing Starts for May posted its lowest tally since May 2020 — the heart of the Covid pandemic: 1.256 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units fell nearly -10% month over month from the upwardly revised 1.392 million for April, and far lower than the 1.35 million analysts had anticipated. Building Permits were also below expectations, reaching 1.393 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units in May from 1.42 million estimated (which was the upward revision to the prior month). This again is the lowest print in five years, and demonstrates a cooling housing market continuing to find its way through the current high-mortgage-rate economy. Single-family homes were flat month over month, -7% year over year. Multi-family took a -30% hit month over month, off a record number of new builds over the past few years. Permits for multi-family were +13% year over year. The housing market sees strong demand for rentals continuing, which should keep multi-family projects in the lead over single-family. We expect this to continue until mortgage rates start to come down meaningfully. The 'big news' today will be the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell following. There won't be any rate cut today, but we do expect a new 'dot plot' from the Fed, which will tip their hand regarding how many rate cuts the FOMC currently expects to deliver this year, and when they might start. This will be the fourth of eight total FOMC meetings this year: the next will be July, but as per tradition, the Fed will skip August. Odds for a September cut are notably higher, although this might be a matter of economists pushing out their hockey sticks a bit. (You'll recall earlier this year that this June meeting was the latest analysts had expected a first rate cut to occur. But a resilient economy combined with a murky tariff outlook have kept those rate cuts at bay.) Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
