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Middle East Eye
7 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
'Vindicated': Unscathed by war, Gulf states look to capitalise on Israel and Iran's losses
The Gulf states see two losers in the conflict between Israel and Iran, analysts and Arab officials tell Middle East Eye. Having squeaked through the hostilities with little damage themselves, leaders in the energy-rich Gulf are now in a position to tap their relative advantages in Israel and the Islamic Republic. Watching the smoke rise from Tehran was a change for leaders in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who just a few years ago were fending off drones and missiles launched at them from Iran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen. Israeli warplanes made hay of Iran's weak air defences. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals were assassinated, and ballistic missile launchers and arms factories were destroyed. The war culminated in the US bombing Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities. And that is the aspect that US and Israeli officials are hammering home about the conflict in their interactions, three Arab officials told MEE. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters But for the first time in a generation, Arab rulers got to see how Israel would fare against a conventional army. Israeli encroachment stopped 'The Israelis showed strong spirit in supporting their military…They were brave. However, the home front in Israel couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes,' one Arab official told MEE, sharing an assessment of the war review in a leading Arab capital. MEE spoke with officials representing three Arab capitals for this article. All said that in their country's corridors of power, the assessment is that Israel was the first to signal it was ready for a ceasefire after having exhausted its list of military targets and seeing that the Islamic Republic was not facing collapse. 'Benjamin Netanyahu was on a rise until now,' Bader al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, told MEE. 'Of course, Israel demonstrated military superiority over Iran's skies. But Iran stopped the Israeli encroachment and hit back. The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken.' 'The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken' - Bader al-Saif, Kuwait University The perception of Israeli vulnerability is important to understand how the US's Arab allies will approach Israel in the future, experts say. It could give them more leverage with Israel, including states that normalised ties with it in 2020 under the Abraham Accords. The same goes for Tehran, the Arab officials told MEE. They expect Gulf leaders to offer investments to Tehran and are not ruling out high-level visits in the coming months. In April, Saudi Arabia's defence minister and brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Tehran. Despite saying Iran's nuclear programme has been 'blown up to kingdom come', US President Donald Trump says his administration will restart talks with Iran. Iran says its nuclear programme is "badly damaged". Either way, the Gulf states backed the nuclear talks, and their sway in Tehran could increase even more now, Arab officials told MEE. 'The Gulf gets a hearing in Washington. At the end of the day, that remains the tremendous leverage it has with Iran - calling up Trump in the middle of the night and him answering the phone,' one Arab diplomat told MEE. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia sealed deals for hundreds of billions of dollars with the US when Trump visited the region in May. At the time, they appeared to get concessions. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia, Trump stopped US attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, MEE revealed. He also lifted sanctions on Syria. 'The Israelis were brave...[but] the home front couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes' - Arab official The Gulf states were unable to stop Israel's attack on Iran. For a moment, it looked dicey. Although the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have differing priorities, experts say none of them wanted to see the US directly join Israel's offensive. In the end, all the Arab officials who spoke with MEE characterised the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities as 'limited" or "minimal". Iran's retaliatory strike on al-Udeid military base in Qatar was coordinated well in advance with Gulf states, MEE reported. 'This crisis has really elevated the Gulf states' leadership,' Ayham Kamel, Middle East president at Edelman Public and Government Affairs, told MEE. 'They were able to play a behind-the-scenes diplomatic role and avoid any significant attack on their territory. They triangulated their cooperation to be inclusive of key states in the broader region, particularly Iran, Turkey and Israel,' he added. Sympathy with Iran? For years, the US tried to recruit Gulf states into an alliance with Israel to counter Iran. When Hezbollah dominated Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad ruled Syria, and the Houthis were lobbing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia - that pitch was attractive. It reached its peak before the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel, when US Central Command tried to create a 'Middle East Nato' linking Israel to Gulf states and Egypt's air defence. But when Israel and Iran came to blows, instead of joining in Israel's offensive, the US's Arab allies lobbied Trump to stop the war. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time' - Patrick Theros, former US ambassador Israel and Iran exchanged direct fire twice in 2024. The US did receive some Saudi and Qatari support defending Israel last year. But Iran choreographed its missile barrages then. This round was the first bare-knuckled battle between them, with Israeli jets pounding Tehran and Iran hammering major cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia all condemned Israel's attack on Iran. Qatar has historically maintained closer ties to the Islamic Republic, in part because they share the world's largest natural gas field. But this conflict saw the UAE and Saudi Arabia publicly and privately press for a ceasefire, two Arab officials told MEE. 'US and Israeli officials may not have anticipated how serious the Gulf is about de-escalation. They know now. Saudi Arabia is on the top of that list,' Patrick Theros, a former US diplomat who served as ambassador to Qatar and a high-ranking official in the UAE, told MEE. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, including Saudi Arabia, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time,' Theros said. Israel and US modified F-35s to enable Iran attack without refuelling, sources say Read More » Not so long ago, Israel may have been able to convince Saudi Arabia to join in its attack. In 2018, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman compared Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Hitler and said he was trying to 'conquer the world'. Then, Saudi Arabia became bogged down fighting Iran's allies in Yemen. In 2019, two major Saudi oil facilities were attacked. At the time, President Trump shrugged off the assault, which emanated from Iran. In the following years, Saudi Arabia moved to patch up ties with the Islamic Republic. In 2023, China brokered a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran. It worked for everyone during the war. The Strait of Hormuz, which China relies on for its oil shipments, remained open. Iranian oil exports soared despite Israeli attacks, and Saudi Arabia's oil installations were safe again. 'The Gulf isn't where it was at in 2019,' Saif, at Kuwait University, told MEE. "We [the Gulf] feel vindicated that we did not join the war.' Gaza ceasefire and normalisation The Gulf states' main focus is reducing their economies' dependence on oil revenue. Saudi Arabia has pushed through liberalising social reforms and is pursuing an ambitious Vision 2030 agenda that includes luxury Red Sea tourism. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi want to build AI data centres. One overlooked element of the change, Theros told MEE, is that the sectarian tensions that feed into the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in spheres of influence like Yemen and Syria have ebbed, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pursues modernising social reforms. 'Now that Mohammed Bin Salman has de-Wahhabised Saudi Arabia, the rhetoric out of the clerics about the Shia has been curbed,' Theros said. 'That makes it harder for Israel to bring Saudi Arabia along.' If anything, public opinion in the Gulf has turned more negative towards Israel over its war on Gaza, where over 56,000 Palestinians have been killed. A poll released by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the first months of the Gaza war revealed 96 percent of people in Saudi Arabia oppose normalisation with Israel. Trump signalled on Wednesday that he wants to build out his fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran to Gaza, where he said 'great progress is being made' to end the war. Ending that conflict is a prerequisite to any talk of normalising ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Under Saudi pressure, Trump refrained from lobbying the kingdom to cut a deal with Israel during his visit to Riyadh in May, but told Saudi Arabia, 'you'll be greatly honouring me' by doing so. Saudi Arabia says it needs to see Israel take irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state to normalise relations. Diplomats say that after the Israel-Iran war, the price Saudi Arabia will demand is going up. 'Saudi Arabia has a very good sense of where the Arab street is going,' one Arab official told MEE. 'It will insist on something serious.'
France 24
14 hours ago
- Politics
- France 24
Cartooning for Peace: Israel and US play a dangerous game of ‘nuclear roulette' with Iran war
The war between Iran and Israel lasted twelve days, creating an imbalance of power in the Middle East. Following offensives against Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis – the so-called 'axis of resistance' – Israel opened a new front against Iran and its nuclear programme on June 12, asserting regional hegemony. The daily reciprocal strikes that followed left 1,054 dead in Iran, according to the Washington-based Human Rights Activists group, and 28 dead in Israel, according to officials there. US President Donald Trump chose military intervention on Sunday, when 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 stealth bombers, carried out a surprise attack on three Iranian nuclear sites. In response, Iran targeted a military base in Qatar, raising fears of a global conflict. On Tuesday, Trump finally announced a ceasefire, which was violated by strikes from both Israel and Iran until the end of the day. Each side is claiming victory: Israel and the United States congratulate themselves on having slowed Iran's nuclear program me for decades (which remains to be proven), while Tehran is glorifying its victory over 'Israel's weakness'. The Iranian regime, although greatly weakened, seems to be holding firm for the time being. Iranian society, for its part, fears increased repression. In this illustration, Brazilian cartoonist Thiago Lucas portrays US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu playing a risky game of 'nuclear roulette'. The two leaders launch missiles in the "hope" of hitting Iran's nuclear sites but, as in any game of chance, the outcome remains uncertain. Cartooning for Peace is an international network of cartoonists committed to promoting freedom of expression, human rights and mutual respect between people of different cultures and beliefs through the universality of press cartoons. Lucas was born in 1987 in Recife, the state capital of Pernambuco in the northeast of Brazil. He is a graduate historian from the Federal University of Pernambuco and has a postgraduate degree in the History of Brazil's Northeast from the Catholic University of Pernambuco. During his studies he developed research on caricature as a form of critical discourse on the 'drought industry' in his native country's northeast. His interest in cartooning started at the age of 14, when he began to follow the drawings published in the newspapers of Pernambuco. Since then, he has published in numerous venues, including magazines, websites, newspapers and textbooks, in addition to having participated in several exhibitions and graphic arts catalogues worldwide.
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First Post
16 hours ago
- Politics
- First Post
Ceasefire and after: Why there's no winner in the Iran-Israel war
Victory was claimed on all sides, but it was a hollow, rhetorical one. The war did not redraw borders. It did not resolve grievances. It merely exposed the unsustainable status quo read more (File) A satellite image shows new airstrike craters on the perimeter of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Facility, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, near Qom, Iran, June 24, 2025. Maxar Technologies/Handout via Reuters The Iran-Israel war, long simmering in the shadows through proxies and intelligence skirmishes, finally erupted into a direct confrontation that not only shook the Middle East but stirred the global order. But when the smoke cleared and ceasefires took fragile shape, one was left asking: who really won, and who truly lost? Or, was there a victor at all? To examine this conflict in isolation is to miss its complex genealogy. The war did not begin in April 2025 or December 2024 when the first missiles were openly exchanged. It began decades ago, seeded in ideological conflict, regional ambition, historical grievance, and strategic calculation. Iran, with its consistent commitment to anti-Zionism, and Israel, with its existential anxiety and security doctrine of pre-emption, have long danced a deadly duet, each enabling the other's paranoia. But it was American withdrawal from regional stewardship and the collapse of the two-state illusion in Palestine that provided the vacuum into which this war was sucked. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD What we witnessed was not merely a regional war. It was a hybrid conflict—a mosaic of direct missile exchanges, cyberattacks, targeted assassinations, and proxy engagements in Syria, Lebanon, and even the Red Sea. Iran mobilised its axis of resistance—Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria. Israel, technologically superior, retaliated with brutal precision. Cities in both nations bled. Tel Aviv's iron dome held—but not always. Tehran saw unprecedented cyber blackouts. Lebanon was devastated again. Hundreds died, thousands were displaced, and the economy of the region—already tottering—collapsed further. Oil prices soared, and global supply chains convulsed. For Iran, the war was both a demonstration of capability and a revelation of vulnerability. The Islamic Republic showcased a remarkable ability to coordinate its proxies. The war gave it a psychological edge—it proved Iran could threaten Israeli soil directly, not just through intermediaries. Internally, the war deepened fissures in Iranian society. Already fatigued by years of sanctions, economic mismanagement, and the trauma of the Mahsa Amini protests, a significant segment of the Iranian public was far from united in support of escalation. Still, the regime's narrative of resistance resonated with many, and illusions of regime change in Iran were reminiscent of past Western imperialism, apart from being premature and misjudged. Israel, for its part, won tactically perhaps, but reinforced its dubious image as the bully of the Middle East. The unstable and precarious regime of Benjamin Netanyahu can only survive by invoking the simulated nationalism of war, and the notion of 'Israel under siege'. However, it did demonstrate, backed by the fulsome supply of American weapons, its military and intelligence superiority. Iranian weapons convoys were obliterated. Key militia commanders were assassinated. Tel Aviv showed it could strike at the heart of Iranian infrastructure. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD But the strategic victory is less clear. For a nation that prides itself on deterrence, Israel failed to deter. Iran did retaliate. Its missiles did land. Its proxies did act. And perhaps most significantly, there is no clarity about whether its uranium enrichment programme has suffered fatal damage. Israel's domestic unity frayed. The war accelerated the cleavage between secular and religious Jews, Ashkenazi and Mizrahi populations, and reignited Palestinian resistance in the West Bank. Israel emerged militarily intact but politically shaken, increasingly dependent on the continued commitment of its American patron. Its image as a democratic fortress amid authoritarian neighbours grew threadbare under the scrutiny of war-time censorship and aggressive counterinsurgency. And what of America? Perhaps there is a diabolical method in the apparent madness of Donald Trump. He allowed Israel and Iran to batter each other, even joining Israel briefly in its attack on Iran, and then when he had left both sufficiently wounded, put pressure on them to agree to a ceasefire. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India's position during the Iran-Israel war exemplified the dilemmas of an aspiring global power. Bound by its traditional ties to Iran—a vital oil supplier and a counterbalance to Pakistan's regional ambitions—India also shares a deepening strategic embrace with Israel, especially in defence, agriculture, and cyber-security. New Delhi's official stance was one of predictable neutrality. It called for de-escalation, respect for the sovereignty of both nations, and reiterated its commitment to regional peace. But underneath the platitudes was a passive diplomatic tightrope act. India could not afford to antagonise Israel—now a crucial supplier of defence technologies and a political partner against Islamic extremism. At the same time, alienating Iran would jeopardise the Chabahar port project, India's gateway to Central Asia, and push Tehran closer to China. Moreover, with over eight million Indians living and working in the Gulf, India had a strong interest in preventing the conflict from escalating into a wider regional war. Its evacuation operations were efficient, but it was clear that India still lacks the heft to shape outcomes in West Asia. It is a stakeholder, yes, but not yet a shaper. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Perhaps the most haunting truth is that no one won. Iran bled, Israel endured, America equivocated, and India chose to remain a bystander. The people—civilians in Tehran, Tel Aviv, Beirut, Sana'a—were the true losers. Victory was claimed on all sides, but it was a hollow, rhetorical one. The war did not redraw borders. It did not resolve grievances. It merely exposed the unsustainable status quo. In the war's aftermath, the Middle East is more fragmented, its future more precarious. The spectre of nuclear escalation—unthinkable until recently—now hovers ominously over future skirmishes. The real challenge lies ahead—in the building of a new regional architecture that transcends sectarianism, balances power, and invests in peace. India, with its historic civilisational ties to West Asia and its growing economic and diplomatic capital, must strive to be more than a fence-sitter. The writer is a former diplomat, an author, and a politician. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
India Today
18 hours ago
- Politics
- India Today
The Gaza Grind and Iranian Gambit Will Have a Cost for Israel
Israel, the Middle East's scrappy David, has been slinging stones at giants for decades. But lately, this underdog looks less like a hero and more like a boxer who's taken one too many jabs. The Gaza quagmire and a bruising brawl with Iran have left Israel wobbling. In a neighbourhood where grudges come with rocket launchers, looking mortal is as clever as yelling 'Aa bail mujhe maar' in a bullock been grinding on like a violently tragic scene stuck on loop. It's been two years since Hamas's October 7 sneak attack, and Israel's scorched earth with extra scorch strategy hasn't exactly won hearts. Hamas's Gaza Health Ministry claims over 56,000 have died. It doesn't matter exactly how many have perished, the world has stopped counting and started judging. Images of rubble, daily body counts, and a humanitarian crisis have turned Israel's iron fist into a global public relations disaster. The macabre scars of October 7 don't justify the carnage anymore. With 50-plus hostages still in Hamas's grip, Israel's war aim too remains elusive. It seems death and destruction have all been in 20 months, Israel's been juggling Iran's proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and the now-defunct Assad regime, like a circus act. Then, in June 2025, Israel went for the jugular, bombing Iran's alleged nuclear sites. Tehran hit back, lobbing missiles that pierced Israel's vaunted air defences. Trump's America, dragged into the mess, dropped 'bunker busters' on Iran's nuclear installations, delaying their programme only by a few months, not years. The enriched uranium and know-how are still there. Iran's leaders, vowing deterrence, might just hit fast-forward. Trump's truce felt like a reality TV cliffhanger: lots of drama, zero History's Champ to Today's Chump?advertisement Israel's wars in 1948, 1967, 1973, all ended with it flexing on the podium. Not this time. The war in Gaza has not delivered a knockout to Hamas, whose fighters are still planting bombs. Hezbollah is nursing wounds post-November 2024 but plotting a comeback, and the Houthis are playing pirates of the Arabian Sea, in the Red Sea to be precise. Iran, the proxy puppeteer, will likely upgrade their arsenal with shinier rockets. Israel's invincible aura has cracked like a kulhad thrown on railway in the West, Israel's fan club is shrinking. UK and European parliaments, now more diverse, are echoing public disgust with calls for ceasefires and arms embargoes. 'Genocide' accusations are sticking on Israel's Teflon robe. In a decade, Israel's blank cheque from the West might bounce. The old 'hit hard, apologise later' playbook is as outdated as a pager. Continued dependence on this might explode in its face or rather groin. Ask Hezbollah!Israel, once David to a gaggle of Goliaths, needs a new script. Enemies are emboldened, allies are wavering, and the Gaza grind is bleeding goodwill. Time for a rethink on Gaza. Because all the perfumes of Arabia can't sweeten this iron fist. As for me, I'm just a satirist with a keyboard and a deadline, watching Israel play chess with a sledgehammer. Checkmate's looking tricky, mate.(Kamlesh Singh, a columnist and satirist, is director of news with India Today Digital)- Ends(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Tune InMust Watch
National Post
19 hours ago
- Politics
- National Post
Avi Benlolo: It's time to end the war — and rebuild a stronger, more resilient Israel
October 7th, 2023, was the most defining moment for Israel since the Holocaust. For a generation two or three times removed from the Shoah, the horrors of that day shattered the illusion of safety. It was not just a brutal terrorist attack — it was an existential wake-up call. Article content For years, many wondered if a new generation raised in a high-tech, Westernized society could withstand a genocidal assault. October 7th gave us the answer. Israelis rose with courage and fury, united by the singular purpose of survival and justice. They did not collapse — they roared back. Article content Article content Article content In the immediate aftermath, Israelis became an iron wall. They fought back against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis — and then directly confronted Iran. This week alone, seven Israeli soldiers were injured in central Israel with one off-duty soldier killed in Beersheba. Twenty-eight civilians were killed by Iranian missiles that levelled entire apartment blocks. Yet, Israel did not flinch. It struck back with precision, resilience, and resolve. Article content Article content No other country in the world could have endured what Israel has faced over the past 20 months. No nation could withstand rocket barrages from multiple fronts while keeping daily life functioning. No other society could bury its young soldiers — its brightest minds — with such dignity and determination. No economy could continue to grow under constant attack. And no people could live through the trauma of watching loved ones kidnapped and brutalized — yet continue to fight with moral clarity. But Israel did. And Israel continues to do so. Article content Article content Let's be honest — it was Israel that gave America its consequential moment. Israeli intelligence and strategic planning laid the groundwork for strikes on Iran's nuclear program. While U.S. airpower delivered the final blow, Israel brilliantly paved the way. Article content Article content October 7th created a new Israeli ethos — just as the Holocaust once did. A new generation has emerged, defined not by memory, but by lived experience. They will never forget the sirens, the bomb shelters, or the atrocities. They will carry the legacy of survival and defence into every sphere of national life. Article content A post-Netanyahu era will bring new leadership shaped by battle — leaders who understand the cost of freedom and the price of silence. They will protect Israel with a heart of courage, grounded in hard-won experience. Article content Israel is not only surviving — it is growing. In the coming years, it will see a surge in Aliyah. As antisemitism rises across Europe and North America, and Islamic fundamentalism undermines Western values, more Jews will choose Israel as a safe and sovereign refuge. They will bring with them skills, passion, and purpose, strengthening the nation from within.
