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Mint
11 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Adani Energy to Varun Beverages - Jay Thakkar suggests three stocks to buy for short-term in F&O segment
Stock market news: The Indian stock markets wrapped up the day in negative territory on Friday, largely due to a sluggish start to the first quarter earnings season and rising tariff threats from the US, which may impose a 35% tax on goods imported from Canada. By the end of the trading session, the Sensex fell by 689.81 points or 0.83%, concluding at 82,500.47, while the Nifty 50 declined by 205.40 points or 0.81%, finishing at 25,149.85. Numerous market analysts highlighted the renewed worries over tariffs and disappointing corporate earnings, particularly in the IT sector, as significant factors contributing to the negative market sentiment. Nifty 50 has been consolidating within a narrow range of 25,600 to 25,700 on the upside whereas 25,400 to 25,300 on the lower side, so the short-term range is 25,600-25,400 and beyond that its 25,700 to 25,300. It has been quite a while that the Index has been trading within this range and the IVs have fallen below 11 now which has lower IVP and IVR levels indicating that there is a higher possibility of an increase in IVs mostly due to weekly expiry or with the start of the result season, so a breakout is quite likely from this range. Since, the trend prior to this consolidation was up, so the upside breakout probability is higher. Based on the options data, it seems that if Nifty 50 manages to sustain above 25,500 levels, then the bulls have an upper hand as both the call and put base is highest at 25,500 levels, so above it means bullish and vice-versa. The PCR is still below 1 at 0.85, however, the breadth has now weakened much despite a long consolidation, indicating a completion of sideways move. So, until 25,300 levels are held on a closing basis, one can initiate long on Nifty 50 for the targets of 25,700 and 25,800 levels on an immediate term and above those it can inch towards 26,000 levels as well. Jay Thakkar of ICICI Securities recommends Adani Energy Solutions Futures, Colgate Palmolive (India) Futures, and Varun Beverages Futures (VBL). Adani Energy Solutions has been consolidating since couple of days and prior to that it had corrected a bit, however, since its entry in the derivatives segments, the stock has witnessed long built up and it continues to increase indicating that there is a higher probability of an upside from current levels. Options data indicates that the 900 strike has the highest OI, so above that there will be an increase in upward momentum, the put additions at the lower levels has increased which indicates good support at the lower levels. The stock is also trading well above its max pain and modified max pain levels which is a positive sign in the near term. Colgate Palmolive has been forming a base at the lower levels and the short has seen some short covering in the near term. In the previous fall the stock had witnessed huge short built up and now since there is a sign of short covering in the futures data, the upside probability is higher thus offering a better risk: reward ratio. The highest put base is at 2400 and there are overall good put additions at 2400 and below the same, whereas, 2500 strike has the highest OI, indicating support at the lower levels, whereas, resistance only at 2500 levels beyond which the upside potential is higher. VBL seems to be forming the base as the prices are now reversing taking off its previous swing highs and with that there has so far, no change in the Open Interest in futures segment. The stock has witnessed huge short built up since its entry in the F&O segment and with the price reversal, the stock is likely to witness short covering, hence one can go long on VBL. Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 08/07/2025 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest. The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
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Business Standard
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
HCL Tech Q1 preview: What to expect amid tariff jitters, seasonal weakness
Technology giant HCL Technologies is likely to see a sequential dip in its revenue and net profit, weighed by the services and products segments amid a seasonal weakness. The information technology (IT) firm will report its earnings for the quarter ended June on Monday, July 14. HCL Technologies' revenue is expected to fall by 0.02 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to ₹30,240.28 crore, according to analysts tracked by Business Standard. Seasonal pass-through of productivity benefits is likely to drag down sequential services revenue growth in Q1, analysts said. However, the company is expected to post a 3.76 per cent decline in net profit for the first quarter sequentially to ₹4,145.13 crore. Even on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, the net profit is expected to fall at an average of 2.65 per cent. Margins for the IT bellwether will likely decline sequentially, in sync with the decline in the services business and the usual productivity pass resets, analysts said. Here's how analysts of various brokerages expect HCL Technologies to fare in Q1: Kotak Securities: The brokerage expects HCL Technologies to report a sequential decline of 0.8 per cent in constant currency revenue for the June quarter, weighed by seasonal weakness in its IT services business. Revenue from both the Services and Products segments is likely to contract 0.8 per cent on a Q-o-Q basis. Cross-currency tailwinds of around 214 basis points are expected to partly offset the topline weakness. However, operating margins may come under slight pressure. Kotak sees Ebit margins declining 60 basis points sequentially, reflecting the impact of lower services revenue and typical resets in productivity gains. Despite the soft quarter, the brokerage anticipates healthy deal wins in the range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Kotak expects the company to maintain its full-year guidance of 2-5 per cent revenue growth and 18-19 per cent Ebit margin. ICICI Securities: HCL Technologies will likely post muted performance in the June quarter, with revenue likely to grow 1.3 per cent in US dollar terms but decline 0.4 per cent on a constant currency basis. The sequential softness is attributed to the anniversary impact of large deals, with weak demand persisting in the auto segment within manufacturing. In contrast, demand remains steady in the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), energy, and utilities verticals. The brokerage noted that overall demand conditions remain largely unchanged, with cost optimisation and vendor consolidation driving deal activity. However, discretionary spending continues to stay subdued. ICICI Securities expects Ebit margins to decline by around 100 basis points Q-o-Q to 17 per cent, citing pressure from revenue softness and the appreciation of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar. Motilal Oswal: Analysts expect HCL Technologies to report a 1.2 per cent sequential decline in revenue for the June quarter, citing seasonal weakness. The Services segment is likely to contract 1.2 per cent in constant currency terms. Among verticals, the brokerage expects relatively better performance from the BFSI and hi-tech segments. However, pressure is likely to persist in manufacturing, particularly in the auto sector, although some signs of stabilisation are emerging. Operating margins are projected to shrink by 50 basis points Q-o-Q, reflecting the typical seasonal reset seen in first quarters over previous years.
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Can Q1 results drive Nifty 50 to record highs despite the absence of an India-US trade deal?
The Indian stock market has been rangebound for almost a month now. The benchmark index has traded in a range of 24,470-25,670 since June. At first glance, it appears that the Indian stock market lacks fresh triggers to sustain gains above 25,600, which can drive it to fresh highs. However, the Indian stock market has exhibited remarkable resilience since March despite geopolitical tensions, tariff-related uncertainties, and elevated domestic market valuations. The Nifty 50 has been in the green monthly since March. However, in July so far, it has lost about half a per cent. The biggest factor limiting the gains of the domestic market is lingering uncertainty over an India-US trade deal. Despite prolonged negotiations and positive signals from Washington, India and the US have yet to finalise a trade pact. Both countries have now pushed back their deadline to finalise the trade deal to mid-July as US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for reciprocal tariffs to 1 August. While hopes are high that India and the US will strike a deal before the deadline, a full agreement between the two countries could be a multi-phased process. In that case, it is too early to conclude whether a potential preliminary deal will significantly trigger the market. Indian corporates will release their June quarter (Q1FY26) scorecard in the coming days. IT major TCS will report its Q1 results on July 10. Experts say that while an India-US trade deal will be an immediate trigger, the market needs significant earnings growth to sustain gains and touch record highs. Some experts highlight that the market has largely discounted a trade ideal, and it may not push the market beyond a range. "A clear breakout of the upper range of Nifty 25500 may happen on positive news of a trade deal between the US and India. But this is partly discounted by the market and, therefore, will not be sufficient to sustain the rally well beyond Nifty 25,500," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. The Nifty 50 may see limited upside in the short term, primarily due to muted earnings growth. Profit growth for index-heavy companies is expected to remain in single digits, which could cap gains in the coming months. According to most experts, the June quarter results may not push the market to fresh highs. Experts expect a significant recovery in earnings only from Q3 onwards, even though they highlight that Q1 results will be better than the previous quarter. "The market's move will depend on what kind of deal we get on tariffs. Q1 earnings are expected to be slightly better than Q4, so that may not trigger a broad-based excitement in the market," said Pankaj Pandey, the head of research at ICICI Securities. "We will see more of a stock-specific action. At this time, the market has limited triggers for a breakout. The range-bound trade may continue for some time. We can see significant earnings growth in the second half of the current financial year (H2FY26)," Pandey said. In the near term, with mild earnings growth, stock-specific action is likely to dominate rather than a broad-based market rally. Brokerage firm JM Financial expects Nifty Q1 PAT (profit after tax) to rise 10.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY), led by strong performance in oil and gas. Excluding BFSI, Q1 Nifty PAT is expected to rise at 14 per cent. "Weak BFSI performance can be attributed to moderating loan growth, NIM (net interest margin) compression of 30 bps YoY, weak fee income growth and elevated credit costs," JM Financial said. Barring short-term obstacles, experts say any correction in the market is an opportunity to buy because India's long-term story remains intact. "Most domestic macroeconomic indicators remain supportive. Low inflation, robust GDP growth, strong foreign exchange reserves, a surplus monsoon, and the prospect of RBI rate cuts all paint a favourable backdrop for the economy," said G. Chokkalingam, the founder and head of research at Equinomics Research Private Ltd. However, Chokkalingam added that a key near-term concern is the ongoing trade uncertainty between India and the US. Markets are closely watching for signs of a deal, and sentiment may remain cautious until there is clarity on that front. From an earnings perspective, Chokkalingam believes a meaningful recovery may still be one to two quarters away. "At the current pace of earnings growth, the Sensex could rise another 7–8 per cent during this fiscal year," he said. Amid expectations of moderate gains in the benchmarks, experts believe real opportunities are in the broader market. "With over 4,000 small- and mid-cap stocks, investors have a wide universe to explore compelling opportunities—whether it's unique growth stories, deep-value plays, or acquisition candidates," said Chokkalingam. "The rise in India's retail investor base is also encouraging: more than 22 crore investors are now registered, with nearly six lakh new investors joining every week. This expanding participation bodes well for sustained interest in mid- and small-cap stocks," Chokkalingam added. Chokkalingam suggests investors may consider allocating at least 30 per cent of their equity portfolio to large-cap stocks like those in the Sensex and Nifty, while 60–70 per cent can be exposed to mid- and small-caps, depending on individual risk appetite for the next two quarters. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Trade TCS ahead of Q1 results with Short Iron Butterfly strategy to gain advantage of Theta decay
Tata Consultancy Services shares are experiencing a short buildup. The medium-term trend is sideways to negative. ICICI Securities suggests a Short Iron Butterfly strategy. A positive result could trigger short covering, potentially reaching Rs 3,600. Negative results may add pressure. Support lies in the Rs 3,200-3,250 range. The short-term range for July is Rs 3,200 to Rs 3,700. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Below is the payoff graph of the strategy: The shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) have witnessed a short buildup in the futures segment, and the overall medium-term trend so far has been sideways to negative.'The upward momentum in the stock can be triggered due to a positive outcome from the result, as that can lead to short covering, which eventually will get the stock to its recent swing high of Rs 3,600 or beyond that,' said Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI case the result is negative or below expectations, Thakkar believes that there can be additional shorts, which will add pressure on the most of it seems to be priced in the stock in the previous fall.'Therefore, in case of muted results or guidance, the stock can trade with a sideways to negative bias wherein the support on the lower side is in the range of 3200-3250 levels,' Thakkar on the above analysis, Thakkar noted the short-term range for the July series as Rs 3,200 to Rs 3,700. Currently, the stock is placed in the middle of the range at around Rs 3,400 the upside, the Rs 3,500 strike has the highest call OI, indicating that the market participants are not expecting more upside. Therefore, only above Rs 3,500, one can expect the stock to continue its short-term IVs are at 23.40 levels with IVP of 79 and IVR of 42, indicating that the market move can be quite within a Jay Thakkar suggests deploying a Short Iron Butterfly strategy , which has a limited gain and limited case the stock doesn't react to the result, there is a high probability of theta decay , which will make the strategy Iron ButterflyIn a short straddle, the trader sells a call and a put at the same strike price to receive the premiums on both the short call and short put positions. We deploy this strategy when we expect the underlying to consolidate in a range before taking any further direction. Straddle selling is usually advised for expert traders and for conservative traders, it is best to buy hedges for protection, thus converting the straddle into an Iron Thakkar noted that the total Inflow in this strategy is 90.05 points, which is the maximum gain, whereas the max loss will be of 29.95 risk-reward ratio is 1:3, which is quite the stock trades within the range of Rs 3,470 to Rs 3,290, then the strategy will be profitable and beyond that the loss is limited up to 29.95 points.(Source: ICICI Securities): Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Trade TCS ahead of Q1 results with Short Iron Butterfly strategy to gain advantage of Theta decay
Tata Consultancy Services shares are experiencing a short buildup. The medium-term trend is sideways to negative. ICICI Securities suggests a Short Iron Butterfly strategy. A positive result could trigger short covering, potentially reaching Rs 3,600. Negative results may add pressure. Support lies in the Rs 3,200-3,250 range. The short-term range for July is Rs 3,200 to Rs 3,700. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Below is the payoff graph of the strategy: The shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) have witnessed a short buildup in the futures segment, and the overall medium-term trend so far has been sideways to negative.'The upward momentum in the stock can be triggered due to a positive outcome from the result, as that can lead to short covering, which eventually will get the stock to its recent swing high of Rs 3,600 or beyond that,' said Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI case the result is negative or below expectations, Thakkar believes that there can be additional shorts, which will add pressure on the most of it seems to be priced in the stock in the previous fall.'Therefore, in case of muted results or guidance, the stock can trade with a sideways to negative bias wherein the support on the lower side is in the range of 3200-3250 levels,' Thakkar on the above analysis, Thakkar noted the short-term range for the July series as Rs 3,200 to Rs 3,700. Currently, the stock is placed in the middle of the range at around Rs 3,400 the upside, the Rs 3,500 strike has the highest call OI, indicating that the market participants are not expecting more upside. Therefore, only above Rs 3,500, one can expect the stock to continue its short-term IVs are at 23.40 levels with IVP of 79 and IVR of 42, indicating that the market move can be quite within a Jay Thakkar suggests deploying a Short Iron Butterfly strategy , which has a limited gain and limited case the stock doesn't react to the result, there is a high probability of theta decay , which will make the strategy Iron ButterflyIn a short straddle, the trader sells a call and a put at the same strike price to receive the premiums on both the short call and short put positions. We deploy this strategy when we expect the underlying to consolidate in a range before taking any further direction. Straddle selling is usually advised for expert traders and for conservative traders, it is best to buy hedges for protection, thus converting the straddle into an Iron Thakkar noted that the total Inflow in this strategy is 90.05 points, which is the maximum gain, whereas the max loss will be of 29.95 risk-reward ratio is 1:3, which is quite the stock trades within the range of Rs 3,470 to Rs 3,290, then the strategy will be profitable and beyond that the loss is limited up to 29.95 points.(Source: ICICI Securities): Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
