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‘Low confidence' in Kwinana as IGO left with no choice but to scrub value off ailing lithium refinery
‘Low confidence' in Kwinana as IGO left with no choice but to scrub value off ailing lithium refinery

West Australian

time3 hours ago

  • Business
  • West Australian

‘Low confidence' in Kwinana as IGO left with no choice but to scrub value off ailing lithium refinery

IGO has determined any value left in a troubled lithium hydroxide train at Kwinana will now need to be written off, with chief executive Ivan Vella declaring outright the miner has little faith in its future. More downtime and equipment failures meant the struggling operation was running at just 35 per cent of its capacity during the quarter and will not meet its targeted production for the year. IGO also had to fork out another $4.5 million in recent months to sustain the refinery, which still copped an even bigger earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation loss for the period of $28.7m. Mr Vella made it clear on Wednesday the miner was running out of patience with the operation, though it remained unclear in the results whether IGO and its joint venture partner Hong Kong-listed lithium developer Tianqi would make the call to shut up shop. After the dire quarter in Kwinana, IGO said another $70m to $90m would need to be scrubbed from the value of its main lithium production unit, meaning the operation will likely be fully impaired on the books for the full year. It adds to the $525m erased from the value of Train 1 in January, when IGO also called off plans to build a second processing train at the site due to weak lithium prices. 'Despite the strong commitment from the team at site to address operational problems and ongoing issues, IGO has low confidence in the ability of this asset to achieve meaningful, sustained improvement,' the CEO told the market on Wednesday. 'We continue to work with our JV partner to determine the optimal future pathway for the plant.' Greenbushes was yet again IGO's saving grace, with the South West lithium mine making sales of 412,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate for the period, an improvement of 12 per cent on the prior quarter. Costs and production targets were both within guidance for the full year. More to come.

WA lithium miners recover $6 billion of value as prices spike on Chinese regulatory probe
WA lithium miners recover $6 billion of value as prices spike on Chinese regulatory probe

West Australian

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • West Australian

WA lithium miners recover $6 billion of value as prices spike on Chinese regulatory probe

WA's beaten-down lithium stocks have recovered more than $6 billion in value as the battery metal's price spike raises hopes that a lingering global glut weighing on the sector could finally be diminishing. Mineral Resources and PLS shares have regained more than 50 per cent over the past four weeks, and Liontown Resources and IGO nearly 40 per cent, since speculation of production cutbacks in China lifted lithium prices off last month's lows. Futures covering the lithium-rich spodumene produced by the quartet have bounced as much as 29 per cent to $US790 ($1200) a tonne, still well short of the $US1100/t it was fetching 13 months ago but a considerable improvement on its bottom of $US605/t in the first week of June. Battery-grade lithium carbonate has added more than 10 per cent. 'Lithium prices have rallied strongly from June lows, with the market showing signs of supply response amid regulatory tightening, plus strong demand' for Chinese electric vehicles, Morgan Stanley analysts said. The price surge has blindsided analysts, demonstrated by Goldman Sachs' sell recommendation on Liontown on July 16 when the stock closed at 83¢. The owner of the new Kathleen Valley lithium mine has since hit a high of $1.03, closing on Friday 2¢ off at 94¢. Likewise, Mineral Resources was trading at $30.90 when Morgans advised clients on Tuesday to reduce their holdings. The shares finished at $32.29 on Friday to be up 60 per cent over the past month. The spodumene price jump is attributed to a regulatory crackdown on non-compliant miners in China that began with local authorities in the western province of Quinghai ordering mid-tier lithium producer Zangge Mining to immediately suspend production on suspicion it was breaching its mining licence. The probe has since extended to other miners that may have been exploiting lithium as a byproduct without the proper approvals. The focus has now reportedly switched to Yichun where miners of lepidolite, a crystal known for high lithium content, have been ordered to re-submit mining documents, raising the prospect of production cutbacks. UBS said 'most of the lepidolite mines are registered under ceramic clay instead of lithium', meaning most would need to reapply for permits to avoid closure. 'The lithium market should re-balance if lepidolite mine closures happen, supporting lithium and spodumene back towards an upward trajectory,' UBS said. Citi said investors were showing more interest in lithium in recent months, but noted the rally in lithium futures is likely 'sentiment-driven' on expectations of supply cuts in China or elsewhere. It cited investor questions on a recent Asian tour around 'the likelihood of supply curtailments from WA'. Citi said the latter was 'unlikely'. PLS shares closed one per cent better at $1.92 on Friday to be up 54 per cent over the past four weeks. IGO, which fell 2¢ to $5.34, has added 35 per cent over the same period.

Monsters of Rock: Whatcha gonna do when LITHIUMANIA runs wild on you
Monsters of Rock: Whatcha gonna do when LITHIUMANIA runs wild on you

News.com.au

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • News.com.au

Monsters of Rock: Whatcha gonna do when LITHIUMANIA runs wild on you

Lithiumania rises as spod prices hit three month high Rare earths stocks see valuations lift on NdPr price moves ASX 300 mining and metals index surges ~5% this week The reality TV stars of the early 2000s are beginning to go the way of the dodo, after Hulk Hogan joined Ozzy Osbourne on the celebrity obituary list overnight. Like most of the superstars of that era, the Hulkster has a spotty history. His electrifying personality put American pro wrestling on the global map, but he alienated peers and spent years effectively banished from public life for a racist slur. Yet, for better or worse, the slogans, theme songs and Rocky III will live on forever. None more so than Hulkamania, the enduring phrase that can be applied to pretty much any trend (if Heinrich Heine didn't get there first with Lizstomania which, of course, he did). So we're taking a tiny bit of ill-gotten inspiration from the big, morally dubious man, or Sofia Coppola's husband's four-piece Phoenix, for today's descent into LITHIUMANIA. Spodumene prices have made a radical comeback on a wave of mine closures in China where local authorities appear to be carrying out the CCP's will to trim competition that has driven heavy corporate losses outside integrated battery and car majors CATL and BYD. We're now at US$810/t, levels not seen since April, after spod followed a massive +8% rise in futures in the Chinese market yesterday. Incredible! At the close of trading today, the average #lithium carbonate futures price increased by 8.29% (the largest interday percentage change since 02/29/24), surpassing the average spot LC price by CNY 6,671 (the largest contango since 03/06/25). A boom in market sentiment! â€' Juan Carlos Zuleta (@jczuleta) July 24, 2025 Profit-taking has sucked some heat out of the local names, with Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS), Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), IGO (ASX:IGO) and Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) all down. But over the past month the gains have been promising. Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) is up 37%, with IGO (ASX:IGO) +34%. Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) has gained close to 50%, while Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), also supported by a rising iron ore price, is close to 60% higher, bouncing off lows caused by weak lithium prices, balance sheet concerns and governance issues circling MD and founder Chris Ellison. Lithium carbonate prices also leapt up, according to PRA Fastmarkets, with the key battery chemical rising US$250/t to US$8800/t. We'll see if this holds up, but enthusiasm for the beaten down battery metals space is certainly returning. Rare earthers Now for rare earthers, another segment of the market where sentiment has been driving gains. NdPr prices have surged since the announcement of a deal between the Department of Defense and US miner and refiner MP Materials. The arbitrage between the US$110/kg price the US Government will offer the owner of the Mountain Pass mine and the Chinese benchmark (~US$60/kg before the news a fortnight ago) has begun to close. Yesterday saw a 6.4% move in Chinese markets to US$73.6/kg, US$65.12/kg with value added tax excluded. Analysts are more bullish now on the large rare earths stocks. Canaccord upgraded Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) from hold to buy and lifted its price target from $4.40 to $5.85 a share this week, noting not only that mineral sands production of 150,000t for the June quarter was well ahead of consensus (130,000t), but also that the MP Materials deal had provided a price signal that de-risked its Eneabba rare earth refinery. "We have revised our modelling for JunQ actuals and revise our LT mineral sands pricing in line with consensus. Additionally, we have de-risked our Eneabba project NPV on an improved REE pricing outlook, the net impact seeing our SOTP-based target price increase to A$5.85/sh (from A$4.40/sh)," Canaccord's Reg Spencer and William Jones said. Iluka has spent ~$570m on construction so far at the $1.8bn Eneabba project, which is backed with a big fat government loan. Reporting its June quarter on Thursday, market leader Lynas (ASX:LYC) reported its first quarter producing more than 2000t of NdPr oxide, delivering 2080t (total 3212t), with first production also in the quarter of heavies terbium and dysprosium oxide. Sales receipts climbed from $124.6m to $152.7m and sales revenue rose 38% to $170.2m. At $60.2/kg, Lynas enjoyed its highest average selling price since the middle of 2022, though cash and short term deposits dropped from $268.9m to $166.4. Speaking to analysts yesterday, Lynas MD Amanda Lacaze was bullish on the MP Materials deal's potential to grow the rare earths market outside China. "I think that it has sent a clear message about the determination of the US government to rebuild this sector outside China. And that certainly has a couple of different benefits," she said. "One is it gives end users confidence to formulate material. I know that over many years, there have been end users who've said, well, gee, we need to invest in alternate technologies because of the supply chain risks associated with rare earths only coming from China. So I think we see a more vibrant and a more buoyant market, generally speaking. And I think that, that will underpin increasing -- increases in the price. "Can (NdPr) go above $110? Yes. And I think if you read the detail of the deal, that there would be an expectation from the US government that that is likely to happen because they've negotiated ... a share of any upside over the $110 as part of their agreement." Lacaze also attributed a recent run-up in prices to growing demand inside China, noting the Asian Metal price had gone up 12-13 bucks a keg in the past month. Canaccord moved from buy to hold to Lynas on valuation, but lifted its price target from $8.80 to $9.65 on improving market conditions. Lynas shares have lifted 18% in the past month to $10.70, while Iluka's have run a mad 57% to $5.46. There were a whole heap of gold stocks on the reporting roster this week as well. But ... we may just leave it for Gold Digger this afternoon to get stuck into them. The ASX 300 Metals and Mining index rose 4.96% over the past week. Which ASX 300 Resources stocks have impressed and depressed? Making gains Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN) (coal) +45.5% Patriot Battery Metals (ASX:PMT) (lithium) +38% Pantoro (ASX:PNR) (gold) +25.2% Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) (lithium) +21.1% Eating losses Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) (gold) -4.4% Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) (gold) -4.2% Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM) (gold) -3.3% Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX) (gold) -2.7% Coronado shares have lifted over the past week after The Australian reported Indian steelmaker JSW was close to nabbing a stake in its Curragh coal mine in Queensland, with cost control also improving in the debt-laden coal miner's recent quarterly. Shares mysteriously lifted over 17% on Friday. Patriot ran higher on both lithium's price run and the announcement of the world's largest pollucite hosted caesium resource at its Shaakichiuwaanaan project in Quebec. The project already contains North America's biggest hard rock lithium deposit. Pantoro produced 25,417oz, hitting the upper half of quarterly guidance for its Norseman gold mine. The project is finally producing real cash, with PNR building an additional $43.3m in cash and gold in the quarter on all in sustaining costs of $1991/oz, with EBITDA of $80.4m powering full year EBITDA to $196.4m. Guidance of 100-110,000oz at $1950-2250/oz has been set for FY26, with $55m of exploration – 250,000m of drilling including over salt lakes unexplored since Western Mining owned the ground in the 1990s – and $67m of growth capital on the cards. Iron ore prices have pulled the broader index higher, falling from recent highs of US$105/t to US$103.20/t in Singapore on Friday.

Morgan Stanley Reaffirms Their Sell Rating on IGO (IPGDF)
Morgan Stanley Reaffirms Their Sell Rating on IGO (IPGDF)

Business Insider

time15-07-2025

  • Business
  • Business Insider

Morgan Stanley Reaffirms Their Sell Rating on IGO (IPGDF)

In a report released today, Rahul Anand from Morgan Stanley maintained a Sell rating on IGO, with a price target of A$4.77. The company's shares closed last Thursday at $2.98. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. Make smarter investment decisions with TipRanks' Smart Investor Picks, delivered to your inbox every week. According to TipRanks, Anand is a 4-star analyst with an average return of 6.4% and a 51.27% success rate. Anand covers the Basic Materials sector, focusing on stocks such as Rio Tinto Limited, Iluka Resources Limited, and Mineral Resources Limited. In addition to Morgan Stanley, IGO also received a Sell from J.P. Morgan's Lyndon Fagan in a report issued on July 2. However, on July 10, Macquarie maintained a Buy rating on IGO (Other OTC: IPGDF). Based on IGO's latest earnings release for the quarter ending December 31, the company reported a quarterly revenue of $284 million and a GAAP net loss of $782.1 million. In comparison, last year the company earned a revenue of $408.6 million and had a net profit of $288.3 million

IGO (IPGDF) Receives a Buy from Macquarie
IGO (IPGDF) Receives a Buy from Macquarie

Business Insider

time11-07-2025

  • Business
  • Business Insider

IGO (IPGDF) Receives a Buy from Macquarie

In a report released today, Robert Stein from Macquarie maintained a Buy rating on IGO, with a price target of A$4.50. The company's shares closed today at $2.98. Don't Miss TipRanks' Half-Year Sale Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. Make smarter investment decisions with TipRanks' Smart Investor Picks, delivered to your inbox every week. According to TipRanks, Stein is a 2-star analyst with an average return of -0.1% and a 48.34% success rate. Stein covers the Basic Materials sector, focusing on stocks such as Champion Iron, Mineral Resources Limited, and BHP Group Ltd. The word on The Street in general, suggests a Hold analyst consensus rating for IGO with a $2.70 average price target, a -9.40% downside from current levels. In a report released yesterday, RBC Capital also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a A$5.00 price target.

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