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Khaleej Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
GCC's GDP growth to see a big jump in 2025, helped by oil output hike
The aggregated real GDP growth of the six GCC countries is expected to increase significantly from 2 per cent in 2024 to 3.6 per cent in 2025, due to an increase in oil production as well as the growth of non-oil sectors, according to the latest forecast by the Institute of International Finance (IIF). 'The direct impact of higher global tariffs on the GCC is limited as oil and gas exports are exempted, and non-hydrocarbon exports from the region are relatively small. Growth will also be supported by the ongoing investments in logistics, manufacturing, renewable energy, and tourism, while inflation remains low,' said Dr Garbis Iradian, chief economist for Mena at IIF. He said non-oil real GDP growth will remain strong at 3.9 per cent, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and diversification efforts away from oil. Earlier, the Central Bank of the UAE projected 3.2 per cent and 4.3 per cent real GDP growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively. According to a Reuters survey, Opec oil output rose in June, led by Saudi Arabia after an Opec+ agreement to raise production. Opec pumped 27.02 million barrels per day in June, up 270,000 barrels from the previous month. Moreover, Iradian noted that macro-financial risks are low due to ample foreign exchange reserves, low debt and ongoing reforms. 'The banking systems remain sound, supported by strong asset quality, ample capital and liquidity ratios, and sustained profitability. However, lower oil prices will narrow the aggregated current account surplus from 5 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 2 per cent in 2025, and widen the fiscal deficits in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait,' said Iradian. Capital inflows/outflows According to IIF's note 'GCC: Surge in Capital Flows', non-resident private capital inflows to the GCC economies are expected to reach $202 billion (Dh741.34 billion) in 2025 and $217 billion (Dh796.39 billion) in 2026. 'The upswing in private non-resident capital flows in 2024 was mainly driven by the continued surge in FDI in the UAE and portfolio debt flows in Saudi Arabia. In an era of geopolitical and macro uncertainties, the GCC region continues to benefit from a stable political environment, improvement in the business environment, and strong economic fundamentals,' said Dr Garbis Iradian. Meanwhile, capital outflows from the GCC will continue to exceed nonresident capital inflows. Due to the slowdown in the pace of resident capital outflows, IIF forecasted that the net capital outflows will decrease from a peak of $279 billion in 2022 to $12 billion in 2025, largely due to a smaller aggregated current account surplus. 'We expect FDI outflows from the GCC to increase from around $60 billion in 2024 to $110 billion by 2026, with most of the increase destined to the United States in the context of the recent mega deal signed with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar,' it said.
See - Sada Elbalad
13-07-2025
- Business
- See - Sada Elbalad
IIF: Egypt's Economy Shows Unusual Resilience Amid Regional Tensions
Taarek Refaat The Institute of International Finance (IIF) has praised Egypt's economic resilience, stating that the country has shown "unusual strength" in the face of heightened geopolitical tensions following the recent military escalation between Israel and Iran. In its latest report, the IIF said the negative impact on Egypt's financial markets was temporary and limited, highlighting that the Egyptian pound briefly weakened during the initial days of the crisis but soon regained partial strength, continuing its gradual depreciation trend. Meanwhile, Egypt's sovereign risk premium remains near its lowest level in five years, reflecting improved investor sentiment and economic fundamentals. Market Composure Amid Regional Volatility The report attributed the relatively muted reaction of financial markets to what it called 'investor desensitization' toward regional geopolitical risks. The MENA region has witnessed two years of prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and the Red Sea, which have shaped investor behavior. 'Egypt's consistent market performance reflects a tangible improvement in its economic fundamentals,' the IIF noted. Portfolio flows remained relatively stable, despite Egypt's historical vulnerability to volatile 'hot money' entering and exiting its high-yield treasury markets. The IIF observed that Egypt has experienced more episodes of capital flight exceeding one standard deviation than most emerging markets, including Turkey, Pakistan, and the Philippines. However, the report highlighted that March 2024 economic reforms broke this pattern, attracting strong inflows into Egypt's debt market, driven by interest rates reaching 27.75%. Since then, only four months have recorded net outflows, and those were absorbed quickly by subsequent inflows. Investor Confidence Grows, External Dependence Shrinks The IIF said the recent stabilization reflects a shift in funding strategy, as Egypt gradually reduces reliance on volatile portfolio flows to cover its current account deficit, favoring foreign direct investment (FDI) and official financing instead. This strategy has been supported by the IMF and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, both of which continue to provide essential financial backing. The non-interventionist approach by Egypt's Central Bank in the foreign exchange market also earned praise, as it allowed the pound to adjust freely, enhancing currency resilience and investor trust in market liquidity. Fiscal Strength Persists Despite Suez Setback Egypt's fiscal performance remained strong, with revenue growth supporting the government's target of a 3.5% primary surplus of GDP for the 2024/2025 fiscal year, even as Suez Canal revenues weakened due to regional insecurity. The IIF cautioned that the canal remains a major external vulnerability. Global shipping firms are unlikely to resume normal transit through the Suez Canal until at least three consecutive months of security stability in the Red Sea, pushing any full revenue recovery into early 2026. Gas Disruptions and Summer Strain The report also addressed the temporary gas export suspension from Israel in June, which led to power cuts in Egyptian factories, particularly in the steel and fertilizer sectors. The government prioritized residential electricity use amid tight supplies. Although the measure was short-lived, the IIF warned that the summer season, combined with declining domestic production and reduced gas imports, may force difficult policy choices in the coming months. Tourism and Reform Risks Loom Tourism—a critical foreign currency source—has shown impressive resilience in recent years but remains at risk. Any direct attacks on Israel could impact tourism flows to Egypt's nearby resorts, the report warned. Internally, the IIF identified slippage on economic reform as Egypt's greatest risk. The IMF postponed its fifth review of Egypt's loan program and merged it with the sixth review, scheduled for autumn 2025, due to concerns over delays in the privatization program. The program is seen as a cornerstone of Egypt's international financing structure, particularly in attracting continued support from the IMF and Gulf states. Debt Market Faces Structural Challenges Despite progress, Egypt's public finances remain under pressure, largely due to the high cost of local debt. The government aims to extend the maturity profile of public debt by reducing its reliance on short-term treasury bills and increasing bond issuance. However, recent auction data suggests slow progress, with yields on short-term instruments remaining elevated, and geopolitical tensions in June briefly lifting risk premiums before easing again. 'Any renewed escalation in the region could revive those premiums,' the IIF warned, potentially complicating Egypt's efforts to reduce debt servicing costs. read more CBE: Deposits in Local Currency Hit EGP 5.25 Trillion Morocco Plans to Spend $1 Billion to Mitigate Drought Effect Gov't Approves Final Version of State Ownership Policy Document Egypt's Economy Expected to Grow 5% by the end of 2022/23- Minister Qatar Agrees to Supply Germany with LNG for 15 Years Business Oil Prices Descend amid Anticipation of Additional US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Business Suez Canal Records $704 Million, Historically Highest Monthly Revenue Business Egypt's Stock Exchange Earns EGP 4.9 Billion on Tuesday Business Wheat delivery season commences on April 15 News Israeli-Linked Hadassah Clinic in Moscow Treats Wounded Iranian IRGC Fighters News China Launches Largest Ever Aircraft Carrier Sports Former Al Zamalek Player Ibrahim Shika Passes away after Long Battle with Cancer Videos & Features Tragedy Overshadows MC Alger Championship Celebration: One Fan Dead, 11 Injured After Stadium Fall Lifestyle Get to Know 2025 Eid Al Adha Prayer Times in Egypt Business Fear & Greed Index Plummets to Lowest Level Ever Recorded amid Global Trade War News "Tensions Escalate: Iran Probes Allegations of Indian Tech Collaboration with Israeli Intelligence" News Flights suspended at Port Sudan Airport after Drone Attacks Arts & Culture Hawass Foundation Launches 1st Course to Teach Ancient Egyptian Language Videos & Features Video: Trending Lifestyle TikToker Valeria Márquez Shot Dead during Live Stream
Associated Press
24-06-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
JMJ Welcomes Troy Pierce to Its Global Consulting Team
Experienced safety consultant returns to advance JMJ's Incident and Injury-Free™ approach 'The trajectory of my career changed 25 years ago after experiencing JMJ's impact, and I could not be happier to return to the JMJ team.' — Troy Pierce, Senior Consultant, JMJ AUSTIN, TX, UNITED STATES, June 24, 2025 / / -- JMJ, a global technology-enabled safety and performance consulting firm, is pleased to announce the addition of Troy Pierce to its global consulting team. With over three decades of experience in the construction safety field, Troy brings deep expertise, an international perspective, and a longstanding connection to JMJ's Incident and Injury-Free (IIF) approach. Troy's career began on the refinery turnaround circuit along the Mississippi River and Gulf Coast, later taking him to Jacobs Engineering, where he worked on major international projects across Ireland, Singapore, England, and Scotland. It was during his time in Ireland that Troy first encountered JMJ and the IIF philosophy, a connection that significantly shaped his future approach to leadership and safety. A two-time former JMJ consultant (2006–2008 and 2014), Troy rejoins the firm after spending the last two and a half years with Pfizer's Global Engineering group, where he was responsible for supporting safety on North American capital projects. 'We're thrilled to welcome Troy back to JMJ,' said Jeff Williams, Chief Executive Officer. 'His hands-on experience, global outlook, and strong alignment with our values make him a valuable partner to our clients and a great addition to our team.' Troy shares the sentiment, 'The trajectory of my career changed 25 years ago after experiencing JMJ's impact, and I could not be happier to return to the JMJ team. The work we do matters, and I'm excited to contribute to a team that's committed to transforming cultures and making a real impact in the world. ' About JMJ For almost 40 years, JMJ has been at the forefront of cultural change, helping executives, leaders, and the front line create breakthrough results in safety and business performance. Our approach combines consulting expertise and proprietary technologies to make the impossible possible. Stephanie Kimball, Chief Marketing Officer JMJ +1 512-485-5062 email us here Legal Disclaimer: EIN Presswire provides this news content 'as is' without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the author above.
Business Insider
14-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
South Africa stock loses $3.7b as foreign investors withdraw from its market
South Africa, Africa's largest economy, is currently experiencing its most prolonged streak of foreign equity outflows in five years, with investors withdrawing a substantial $3.7 billion from the local stock market since October 2024, a data released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) showed. South Africa is experiencing significant foreign equity outflows, with $3.7 billion withdrawn since October 2024. Economic stagnation and declining per capita income are contributing to foreign investor hesitancy. Emerging markets like Brazil, Turkey, and Taiwan are attracting more inflows, contrasting South Africa's volatile foreign investment trends. A Reuters report noted that the recent withdrawal, amounting to nearly double the $1.9 billion in outflows recorded from 2023 to early 2024, underscores increasing investor hesitation towards stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), despite its status as one of the world's top-performing markets this year. According to Bank of America, South African equities have delivered a 29% return in dollar terms year-to-date, ranking among the global top five performers, behind only Greece, Spain, Germany, and Italy. However, this strong performance has not translated into sustained foreign interest. Graham Tucker, portfolio manager at Old Mutual Investment Group, observed: "Investors are looking to diversify outside the U.S., but that doesn't automatically make South Africa a top destination." He added that South Africa's stock market appears cheap, but this pricing reflects over a decade of economic stagnation and declining per capita income, which underlies the cautious investor sentiment. Emerging market shift excludes SA Meanwhile, the broader emerging market landscape is witnessing a resurgence in certain relative stock markets. According to IIF data, countries such as Brazil, Turkey, Taiwan, and South Korea are attracting increasing capital inflows as fund managers diversify away from US assets. In contrast, South Africa risks being left behind in this trend. Although the JSE has seen higher trading volumes in recent weeks, foreign investment remains volatile. Exchange data shows that in the previous week, non-South African investors bought stocks worth over 30 billion rand (approximately $1.6 billion), reportedly the highest in years, but sold about 24.7 billion rand ($1.3 billion) during the same period. With just a few weeks into the second half of 2025, non-resident investors have been net sellers of $5.9 billion in equities, nearly $1 billion more than during the same period in 2024. Tucker further commented on the situation, noting: " Foreign investors tend to behave like tourists. They'll come for a trade, especially in gold stocks when the commodity is booming, but they won't stay without long-term policy certainty." While the South African stock market continues to record gains, the country's economy remains fragile, as evidenced by stagnant GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025, largely due to six consecutive months of contraction in the mining and manufacturing sectors.
Reuters
13-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
S.Africa stocks suffer $3.7 billion losing streak from foreign investors
JOHANNESBURG, June 13 (Reuters) - Foreign investors have pulled $3.7 billion out of South African equities since October in the longest such streak of outflows in five years, a report showed, as the continent's biggest equity market struggles to attract international portfolio flows. International investor confidence in stocks listed in Africa's most industrialized economy has been fragile for years, with equities having suffered annual outflows since 2022, calculations by the Institute of International Finance show. But the latest streak marks a sharp acceleration, coming in at double the $1.9 billion of outflows across 2023 and 2024, the IIF said. South Africa is at risk of missing out on moves by global fund managers reallocating into regions outside of the U.S. without growth, said analysts, even as stocks trade at discount prices. "Investors are looking to diversify outside of the U.S., but that doesn't automatically (make) South Africa a primary destination," said Graham Tucker, portfolio manager at Old Mutual Investment Group. The local market was "relatively cheap", he added, but that reflected a decade of declining per capita income and depressed growth. Emerging stocks as a global asset class have suffered outflows more widely since October. But that changed in May when major emerging stock markets from Brazil to Turkey and from Taiwan to South Korea attracted fresh inflows, according to IIF data. Latin American countries are especially well-placed to benefit from the U.S. market shifts. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange has also seen higher volumes of investments in recent weeks, but rising purchases are matched by rising sales, the bourse's data shows. South African equities have delivered a 29% return in dollar terms year-to-date, placing them among the top five performers globally behind only Greece, Spain, Germany and Italy, Bank of America said. In the week to last Friday, non-residents bought more than 30 billion rand in South African stocks, the highest weekly value in years, but that also coincided with heavy selling of 24.70 billion, the JSE data shows. So far this year, non-residents have been net sellers of $5.9 billion, a billion more compared to the same period in 2024. "Foreign investors, if anything, behave like tourists. They will come for a trade, especially in gold stocks when the commodity runs, but they won't stay without long-term policy certainty," said Tucker. Higher offshore volumes mostly reflect global uncertainties, as the country's growth fundamentals have not improved significantly, Nedbank economist Isaac Matshego said. Data from the country's statistics agency showed last week that the country's gross domestic product stagnated in the first quarter, mainly owing to six straight months of contractions in the mining and manufacturing sectors. ($1 = 17.9439 rand)
