Latest news with #IISS
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Alhasan: Iran Weakened But Vengeful After Conflict
The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. During a war that lasted 12 days, Iran found itself isolated and alone, while its network of partners in the Middle East stayed on the sidelines. Hasan Alhasan, Senior Middle East Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies told Bloomberg's Horizons Middle East and Africa anchor Joumanna Bercetche about Iran's nuclear plans ahead. (Source: Bloomberg)
Calgary Herald
6 days ago
- Business
- Calgary Herald
Gulf states fear escalation as U.S. Iran strikes rattle region
Article content (Bloomberg) — Iran's Arab neighbors urged restraint and warned of potentially devastating implications for the region after US strikes on Tehran's nuclear program raised the prospects for all-out war in the Middle East. Article content In statements on Sunday, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry condemned the violation of Iran's sovereignty, Qatar warned it would have 'disastrous consequences,' and Oman called it 'illegal.' Those countries, and the United Arab Emirates, have spent months trying to use their geopolitical and economic heft to bolster nuclear talks between the Americans and Iran. Article content Article content Article content They spent the week since Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Tehran trying to keep the US from directly intervening. Saturday night's bombings have shown just how much they are hostage to forces completely outside their control. Article content Article content 'I don't think the Arab Gulf states have much control over the course of events at this stage,' said Hasan Alhasan, Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy at IISS in Manama, Bahrain. 'There is no guarantee that any of the warring parties, Iran, Israel or the US, will take Gulf interests into account.' Article content In a press conference on Sunday, Iran's foreign minister said he'd spoken with counterparts across the region the day before who were 'worried about a possible attack by the United States.' Article content 'Almost all of them are very much concerned and interested to play a role to end this aggression by Israel,' Abbas Araghchi said. Article content Article content Within the region, there was evidence of growing disquiet, with people stockpiling supplies in the UAE and Kuwait. Meanwhile, British Airways halted flights to Dubai and Doha, two of the region's economic centers. Article content It's a stark contrast from just over a month ago when US President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE on his first scheduled foreign trip since returning to office. There, he touted the potential for trillions of dollars-worth of trade and investments between the US and the Gulf. Article content Leaders are 'forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos,' Trump said in the Saudi capital, 'where people of different nations, religions, and creeds are building cities together, not bombing each other out of existence. We don't want that.' Article content The Gulf Arab states have sought to leverage their natural resources and trillion-dollar sovereign wealth funds to diversify their economies and emerge as significant geopolitical players. They've acted as key go-betweens during the US-Iran nuclear talks, urging a deal for the sake of regional stability and economic prosperity.
Mint
6 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Gulf States Fear Escalation as US Iran Strikes Rattle Region
Iran's Arab neighbors urged restraint and warned of potentially devastating implications for the region after US strikes on Tehran's nuclear program raised the prospects for all-out war in the Middle East. In statements on Sunday, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry condemned the violation of Iran's sovereignty, Qatar warned it would have 'disastrous consequences,' and Oman called it 'illegal.' Those countries, and the United Arab Emirates, have spent months trying to use their geopolitical and economic heft to bolster nuclear talks between the Americans and Iran. They spent the week since Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Tehran trying to keep the US from directly intervening. Saturday night's bombings have shown just how much they are hostage to forces completely outside their control. 'I don't think the Arab Gulf states have much control over the course of events at this stage,' said Hasan Alhasan, Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy at IISS in Manama, Bahrain. 'There is no guarantee that any of the warring parties, Iran, Israel or the US, will take Gulf interests into account.' In a press conference on Sunday, Iran's foreign minister said he'd spoken with counterparts across the region the day before who were 'worried about a possible attack by the United States.' 'Almost all of them are very much concerned and interested to play a role to end this aggression by Israel,' Abbas Araghchi said. Within the region, there was evidence of growing disquiet, with people stockpiling supplies in the UAE and Kuwait. Meanwhile, British Airways halted flights to Dubai and Doha, two of the region's economic centers. It's a stark contrast from just over a month ago when US President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE on his first scheduled foreign trip since returning to office. There, he touted the potential for trillions of dollars-worth of trade and investments between the US and the Gulf. Leaders are 'forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos,' Trump said in the Saudi capital, 'where people of different nations, religions, and creeds are building cities together, not bombing each other out of existence. We don't want that.' The Gulf Arab states have sought to leverage their natural resources and trillion-dollar sovereign wealth funds to diversify their economies and emerge as significant geopolitical players. They've acted as key go-betweens during the US-Iran nuclear talks, urging a deal for the sake of regional stability and economic prosperity. But none of the three principle players — Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — have appeared amenable to Gulf attempts at mediation in recent weeks. Israel and Iran exchanged volleys of missiles for days on end as Trump publicly mulled the possibility of US involvement. He ultimately went ahead with military action despite Gulf concerns. Still, Gulf officials say they have little choice but to continue with diplomacy as they are potential front-line collateral damage in any broader conflict. The countries are home to tens of thousands of US troops and key military bases, worry about any impact on their oil infrastructure and fear possible radiation leaks from their neighbor's nuclear sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency has long warned against strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities for exactly that reason. Other worries include Iranian strikes or proxy attacks on US interests in the Gulf — the Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen on Sunday morning condemned the American strikes and reiterated their readiness to attack US vessels and warships in the Red Sea. If the Islamic Republic takes the extreme step of shutting the Strait of Hormuz — which handles around a quarter of the world's oil trade — it could send crude prices soaring to $130 a barrel, according to Bloomberg Economics. 'The Arab Gulf states' central challenge is to prevent regional escalation from engulfing their territories while maintaining strategic ties with the US,' said Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, head of the Emirates Policy Center, an Abu Dhabi-based think tank. 'They will likely pursue a policy of pragmatic restraint, intensified defense readiness, and diplomatic balancing to contain the fallout.' Gulf states, while quietly cheering anything that sets back Iran's nuclear program, also continue to fear the prospect of a power vacuum in Tehran and the chaos regime change could bring, according to officials in the region who insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. The terrorism and sectarian warfare that followed the 2003 Iraq War and the Arab Spring loom large. Decisions taken in Tehran in the coming hours will be key. Iran's foreign minister Araghchi called the US move 'outrageous,' adding that 'Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.' Still, Iran's leaders will need to weigh the option of retaliation against US threats of further attacks. 'Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's No. 1 state sponsor of terror,' Trump said in a social media post. 'Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater — and a lot easier.' The hope in Gulf capitals is that those warnings will prevent the kind of retaliation that could further threaten Gulf security. 'For everyone in the region, it is now time to wait with baited breath and hope that cooler heads prevail in Tehran and Washington now that this major escalation has taken place,' said Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk consultancy Rane Network. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Gulf States Fear Escalation as US Iran Strikes Rattle Region
(Bloomberg) -- Iran's Arab neighbors urged restraint and warned of potentially devastating implications for the region after US strikes on Tehran's nuclear program raised the prospects for all-out war in the Middle East. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown In statements on Sunday, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry condemned the violation of Iran's sovereignty, Qatar warned it would have 'disastrous consequences,' and Oman called it 'illegal.' Those countries, and the United Arab Emirates, have spent months trying to use their geopolitical and economic heft to bolster nuclear talks between the Americans and Iran. They spent the week since Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Tehran trying to keep the US from directly intervening. Saturday night's bombings have shown just how much they are hostage to forces completely outside their control. 'I don't think the Arab Gulf states have much control over the course of events at this stage,' said Hasan Alhasan, Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy at IISS in Manama, Bahrain. 'There is no guarantee that any of the warring parties, Iran, Israel or the US, will take Gulf interests into account.' In a press conference on Sunday, Iran's foreign minister said he'd spoken with counterparts across the region the day before who were 'worried about a possible attack by the United States.' 'Almost all of them are very much concerned and interested to play a role to end this aggression by Israel,' Abbas Araghchi said. Within the region, there was evidence of growing disquiet, with people stockpiling supplies in the UAE and Kuwait. Meanwhile, British Airways halted flights to Dubai and Doha, two of the region's economic centers. It's a stark contrast from just over a month ago when US President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE on his first scheduled foreign trip since returning to office. There, he touted the potential for trillions of dollars-worth of trade and investments between the US and the Gulf. Leaders are 'forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos,' Trump said in the Saudi capital, 'where people of different nations, religions, and creeds are building cities together, not bombing each other out of existence. We don't want that.' Gulf States Sidelined The Gulf Arab states have sought to leverage their natural resources and trillion-dollar sovereign wealth funds to diversify their economies and emerge as significant geopolitical players. They've acted as key go-betweens during the US-Iran nuclear talks, urging a deal for the sake of regional stability and economic prosperity. But none of the three principle players — Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — have appeared amenable to Gulf attempts at mediation in recent weeks. Israel and Iran exchanged volleys of missiles for days on end as Trump publicly mulled the possibility of US involvement. He ultimately went ahead with military action despite Gulf concerns. Still, Gulf officials say they have little choice but to continue with diplomacy as they are potential front-line collateral damage in any broader conflict. The countries are home to tens of thousands of US troops and key military bases, worry about any impact on their oil infrastructure and fear possible radiation leaks from their neighbor's nuclear sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency has long warned against strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities for exactly that reason. Other worries include Iranian strikes or proxy attacks on US interests in the Gulf — the Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen on Sunday morning condemned the American strikes and reiterated their readiness to attack US vessels and warships in the Red Sea. If the Islamic Republic takes the extreme step of shutting the Strait of Hormuz — which handles around a quarter of the world's oil trade — it could send crude prices soaring to $130 a barrel, according to Bloomberg Economics. 'The Arab Gulf states' central challenge is to prevent regional escalation from engulfing their territories while maintaining strategic ties with the US,' said Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, head of the Emirates Policy Center, an Abu Dhabi-based think tank. 'They will likely pursue a policy of pragmatic restraint, intensified defense readiness, and diplomatic balancing to contain the fallout.' Gulf states, while quietly cheering anything that sets back Iran's nuclear program, also continue to fear the prospect of a power vacuum in Tehran and the chaos regime change could bring, according to officials in the region who insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. The terrorism and sectarian warfare that followed the 2003 Iraq War and the Arab Spring loom large. Decisions taken in Tehran in the coming hours will be key. Iran's foreign minister Araghchi called the US move 'outrageous,' adding that 'Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.' Still, Iran's leaders will need to weigh the option of retaliation against US threats of further attacks. 'Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's No. 1 state sponsor of terror,' Trump said in a social media post. 'Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater — and a lot easier.' The hope in Gulf capitals is that those warnings will prevent the kind of retaliation that could further threaten Gulf security. 'For everyone in the region, it is now time to wait with baited breath and hope that cooler heads prevail in Tehran and Washington now that this major escalation has taken place,' said Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk consultancy Rane Network. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Indian Express
17-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
How India's defence spending is aligned with its regional ambition
West Asia is among the regions witnessing the steepest defence spending largely driven by the Israel-Gaza conflict, according to the 2025 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict only compounds the situation. At the same time, South Asia has emerged as one of the fastest militarising regions worldwide, exacerbating security concerns across Asia. But what are the major factors behind increased military spending worldwide and, specifically, in the Indo-Pacific region – home to seven of the 10 largest militaries? Global militarisation is accelerating at a pace unseen since the Cold War, with South Asia and the Indo-Pacific emerging as the key theatres of this trend. According to the SIPRI, global defence spending in 2024 surpassed $2.7 trillion, with over one-fifth coming from Asia and Oceania. Driven by declining geopolitical trust, nuclear competition, and escalating rivalries, defence spending has now increased for ten consecutive years. Across the Himalayas and throughout the Indian Ocean, military buildups are growing more complex and consequential. The SIPRI estimates show that global defence spending rose by 9.4 per cent in 2024 in real terms, reaching approximately $2.72 trillion. The five largest military spenders – the US, China, Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia – together contributed around 61 per cent of global defence expenditures. The steepest regional increases were observed in Europe (17 per cent) and West Asia, largely driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict. The total world spending rose by 37 per cent in the past decade and the US continued to be the largest spender with $997 billion in 2024 – 3.2 times more than the next biggest spender, China. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) presents an alternative estimate, placing global defence spending at $2.46 trillion for 2024 – a 7.4 per cent increase after adjusting for inflation. Although both sources confirm a significant rise in global defence budgets, the SIPRI uses a more comprehensive accounting method – covering pensions and paramilitary forces – while IISS restricts its focus to formal military allocations. South Asia has emerged as one of the fastest militarising regions worldwide. According to the SIPRI, India's military expenditure in 2024 stood at $86.1 billion, a 1.6 per cent increase from the previous year, placing it fifth among the top global spenders. Meanwhile, Pakistan's defence budget was estimated at $10.2 billion, nearly nine times less than India's, although Islamabad has now proposed a 20 per cent hike in military spending for 2025–26 in response to the recent military showdown with India. India's defence strategy largely revolves around addressing simultaneous challenges – maintaining stability along the Line of Actual Control with China and mitigating asymmetric security threats from Pakistan, particularly terrorism. With increasing maritime commitments and aspirations to become a regional security provider, India's military focus is now deeply tied to its vision for the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The Indian Navy has seen steady modernisation, with over $21 billion earmarked for equipment in the 2025–26 budget. Pakistan continues to rely on a blend of conventional and nuclear deterrence. Although its economic situation limits long-term defence investments, its military planning remains responsive, aimed at preserving some degree of strategic balance with India. Islamabad's increasing dependence on Chinese support, including under initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), enhances its military capacity but also deepens geopolitical reliance. The Indo-Pacific region, home to seven of the 10 largest militaries, has become the focal point of the global rise in military expenditures. Three interconnected factors define this: China's increasingly assertive military posture, India's balancing efforts, and the strategic involvement of the US and its allies in shaping regional security. — China: With a defence budget of $314 billion in 2024 – up 7 per cent from 2023 – China continues its three-decade trait of steady rise in military spending. IISS offers a slightly lower figure of $296 billion, noting a 6 per cent real-term increase. China is responsible for nearly 50 per cent of defence expenditure across Asia and Oceania, with its priorities centred on expanding anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, enhancing maritime surveillance, and updating its nuclear forces. China's activities in the South China Sea, its port-building spree across the IOR, and its sharpening rhetoric on Taiwan have alarmed regional powers. — India: India's spending rose modestly by SIPRI's estimate (1.6 per cent), but IISS reports a 4.2 per cent increase, possibly due to exchange rate adjustments and accounting categories. Strategically, India is placing increasing emphasis on maritime security, deterrence against China, and technological self-reliance. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh outlined a vision of 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat' in defence production, with a target of 1.75 lakh crore (approx. $21 billion) in domestic military manufacturing in 2025. — Pakistan: Faced with growing fiscal constraints, Pakistan's real defence capacity remains limited. Yet, the proposed 20 per cent hike in 2025–26 aims to send a strong political message after its April 2025 confrontation with India. The addition of military pensions and a significant allocation for equipment purchases reflects its desire to keep pace strategically despite economic headwinds. — Japan and Australia: Japan's defence budget reached $55.3 billion in 2024, registering a 21 per cent increase, as Tokyo moves away from its post-WWII pacifism. Australia too continues to scale up, with its outlay of $33.8 billion, driven by the AUKUS agreement and a perceived need to counterbalance China in the Pacific. These actors amplify the Indo-Pacific's shift from a trade-first paradigm to a security-centric theatre. Military spending in the IOR is not driven by economics alone – it is fed by an uptight mix of strategic distrust, nuclear deterrence, and sovereignty concerns. Nuclear posturing The nuclear arms race is once again intensifying, especially in Asia. According to SIPRI's latest estimates, the total number of nuclear warheads globally stands at 12,241, with 9,614 in military stockpiles and around 3,912 deployed, some on high alert. The US and Russia together possess almost 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons. One of the most concerning trends is the continuous growth and upgrading of nuclear arsenals, particularly among China, India, and Pakistan. China is estimated to have between 500 and 600 nuclear warheads and is reportedly expanding its arsenal by around 100 warheads per year. Over 350 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) silos are also under development. It is building a robust second-strike capability through sea- and air-based systems. India is developing its nuclear triad with technologies like canisterised missile systems and ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), aiming to enhance both deployment flexibility and survivability. Pakistan is gradually expanding its nuclear arsenal and placing growing emphasis on tactical nuclear capabilities for potential use in regional conflict. This expansion is closely linked to the deteriorating regional security situation. The 2025 India-Pakistan war and China's assertiveness in the South China Sea have added urgency to nuclear preparedness. Compounding this are the failures of global arms control – such as the uncertain fate of New START – and the lack of regional risk-reduction mechanisms. West Asia is witnessing the consequences of this setback. In the Indian Ocean Region, the presence of nuclear-armed submarines, especially from China and India, increases the risk of miscalculation. Without new confidence-building measures, the regional nuclear competition threatens to destabilise rather than deter. Territorial and maritime disputes China's sweeping claims in the South China Sea and increased naval presence in the Eastern IOR (Gwadar, Djibouti, Maldives) are reshaping strategic calculations. India's response has been to deepen naval outreach, participate in multilateral naval exercises (like Malabar), and build infrastructure in the Andaman-Nicobar command. Deterrence by denial Rather than deterrence by punishment, many states in the region are focusing on deterrence by denial – developing submarine fleets, surveillance networks, and air defence systems to deny adversaries access to key maritime zones. Securitisation of the commons Even areas like seabed mapping, undersea cables, and marine biodiversity – once under scientific or civilian control – are now being securitised. This blurs the line between peace-time preparations and war-time readiness. The Indo-Pacific is evolving into one of the most militarised regions globally. Although modernisation and deterrence can promote security, the absence of clear military doctrines, effective arms control frameworks, and reliable confidence-building channels increases the risk of accidental escalation. Despite their significant military budgets, India and China lack dedicated hotlines or transparent mechanisms to verify each other's military activities – raising the risk of miscalculation during crises. India and Pakistan continue to observe a fragile ceasefire, but sustained diplomatic engagement and backchannel communications are largely absent. In such a context, every military drill, arms purchase, or border incident becomes a potential flashpoint. There is an urgent need to reinvigorate CBMs – such as greater transparency in defence spending, advance notification of military drills, collaborative disaster-response training, and open dialogues on maritime security. Multilateral institutions like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and ASEAN need to be empowered to facilitate such efforts. Long-term strategic stability in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific needs to go beyond deterrence. It demands sustained dialogue, responsible restraint, and a shared understanding that economic progress cannot flourish amid constant military tension. According to recent reports by SIPRI and IISS, defence spending has increased for ten consecutive years globally. Evaluate major reasons behind this trend. What does India's rising defence expenditure reveal about its strategic priorities? How is India's defence strategy balancing its continental challenges with maritime ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region? In what ways does India's approach to balancing power in the Indo-Pacific illustrate its broader strategic goals amid China's assertiveness and increasing US-led alignment in the region? (K.M. Seethi is the Director of Inter University Centre for Social Science Research and Extension (IUCSSRE), Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU), Kerala, and former Senior Professor of International Relations at the same university.) Share your thoughts and ideas on UPSC Special articles with Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter and stay updated with the news cues from the past week. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X.
