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Mid East Info
30-06-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-Year high, Crude slump rattles speculators
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank Speculators raise dollar short to four-year high In forex, speculative flows in the week to 24 June – when the Dollar index dropped 1% to trade near a March 2022 low – continued to favour dollar selling, with the gross short position against eight IMM futures contracts rising 8% to USD 20.3 billion — marking the most bearish stance on the dollar in more than four years. The bulk of this came from renewed strength in the euro, where net longs rose to a 17-month high of 111,135 contracts, equivalent to USD 16.2 billion. Elsewhere, traders trimmed their Canadian dollar short to a 14-month low, while modest buying of the yen and New Zealand dollar more than offset fresh selling in the Australian dollar, Swiss franc, and most notably the British pound. Commodity swings give managed money a rough ride It's been a wild ride across key commodities this past month—none more so than energy. Brent crude surged more than 30% in just three weeks, peaking on Monday, 23 June, before nosediving in its biggest two-day drop since 2022, erasing most of the summer demand and Middle East risk premium gains. Elsewhere, broad strength helped push the Bloomberg Commodities Index to a fresh cycle high on 20 June, only to stumble last week as weakness in energy and grains set in. The turbulence has been particularly punishing for trend-following funds like CTAs and hedge funds, whose positioning is tracked in the weekly Commitment of Traders report. Whipsaw price action forced these funds to chase the market up and down—often buying high, selling low—amplifying volatility and occasionally driving price swings that defy fundamental logic. Broad selling as BCOM suffers a 4% setback, led by energy and agriculture The latest CFTC reporting week to Tuesday, 24 June, captured a dramatic unwind across commodities, sparked by the sudden easing of Middle East tensions following a US-brokered ceasefire. Crude oil took the biggest hit, with WTI and Brent futures tumbling 12%, while gold and silver also lost their shine as safe-haven demand faded. The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped 4% on the week, with losses felt across the board—except in industrial metals. Alongside the energy slump and precious metal pullback, agriculture also joined the red tide. Trend-following funds and managed money accounts reacted swiftly, unloading 95.5k crude oil contracts—wiping out more than half of the previous three weeks' buildup. Brent bore the brunt, with the net long slashed by 29% to 192.6k. Interestingly, despite the broader selloff, a tight product market saw fresh longs added in gasoline and diesel. Metal market activity was more restrained. Weakness in gold and silver triggered some long liquidation, but short sellers remained cautious—suggesting the buy-the-dip mentality is still alive, if not entirely well. Speculators stayed lukewarm on platinum despite its recent four-year high, with the net long ticking up to 19.8k, well above the five-year average but still shy of the October peak at 30.8k. Copper, by contrast, saw a pickup in interest, with the net long rising to a 13-week high at 29.2k, buoyed by tightening non-U.S. supply and tariff chatter. In grains, the sector dropped 4.5% last week and now braces for key USDA reports on acreage, stocks, and crop progress later today. Corn, soybeans, and wheat remain under pressure amid expectations of abundant global supply and generally favorable growing weather. Pre-report surveys point to a 7.3% YoY drop in U.S. corn stocks, a five-year high for soybeans, and a 20% YoY surge in wheat stocks—marking a four-year high. Wheat saw some short covering during the reporting week, but little fresh buying appetite. Corn and soybean meal shorts remained elevated, with the latter hitting a record 110k contracts—driven in part by strong demand for soybean oil, which is boosting not-so-hot meal production. Elsewhere, the sugar short ballooned to its largest since 2019 at -85.6k, the Arabica coffee long fell to a November 2023 low at 23.3k, while lean hogs attracted heavy bullish interest, with the net long hitting a record 134k contracts.
Mid East Info
16-06-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
COT Report: Speculators sell dollar, buy crude ahead of Middle East escalation
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank In the latest reporting week to 10 June, the US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its slide to a fresh three-year low, prompting a marked shift in speculative positioning. According to CFTC data, non-commercial traders increased their gross USD short positions against the eight major IMM currency futures by 31%, pushing the total to a four-week high of USD 16 billion. As shown in the table below, the bulk of the dollar selling was channeled into demand for EUR, GBP, and CAD, and only partly offset by a sixth consecutive week of net JPY selling. Broad commodity buying ahead of Middle East escalation In the week to June 10, managed money accounts showed broad-based demand across commodities, with net buying recorded in all major sectors except softs. The most notable positioning shifts occurred in the energy space, as speculative appetite was buoyed by tightening fundamentals and early signs of improving risk sentiment following renewed optimism around a potential US-China trade deal, which helped ease macroeconomic and demand concerns. The standout move came in crude oil, where speculators added aggressively to net long positions, driving the combined Brent and WTI long to a ten-week high of 319,000 contracts. This was primarily driven by a combination of fresh longs in Brent and the reduction of gross short positions in WTI, as the market entered the peak summer demand period amid signs of tightening supply. Importantly, this shift in positioning occurred before last Friday's dramatic escalation in the Middle East, when Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and senior military targets, triggering a near-13% intraday spike. Crude settled 7% higher on Friday, only to spike again in early Monday trade as hostilities between Israel and Iran continued. However, the absence of direct strikes on oil infrastructure or export facilities, combined with a failure to surpass Friday's price peaks—Brent at USD 78.50 and WTI at USD 77.60—invited profit-taking and hedging flows from producers. Still, the unfolding conflict presents a binary risk scenario: uninterrupted flows could trigger a sharp $10 correction, while any disruption to Iranian exports or a worst-case scenario blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could send prices soaring. For now, prices are drifting lower into Monday's session, with current levels only justified if actual supply disruption materialises. In precious metals, gold saw modest long liquidation, while silver attracted fresh buying. The standout was platinum, where net long positions jumped alongside a 13% price surge—driven by technical momentum and an outlook pointing to tightening market condition. In agriculture, soybeans found renewed support amid optimism around Chinese demand, while short covering helped reduce an extended net short in wheat. Corn, however, continued to face selling pressure amid a persistently bearish supply outlook. The softs sector was the only area to buck the trend, with sugar shorts doubling on weakening fundamentals and technical breakdowns. In contrast, the livestock sector remained in favour, with broad-based buying led by hogs as supply concerns and firm seasonal demand supported bullish sentiment.
Mid East Info
11-06-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
COT Report: Metals, energy demand offset by broad Ag selling
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank In the latest reporting week to 3 June, the period saw the USD trade broadly weaker. Speculators nevertheless responded by reducing their overall short USD position versus the eight IMM FX futures contracts by 8%, to USD 12.2 billion. At the individual currency level, buying of EUR and MXN was more than offset by selling of JPY and CAD. Strong metals and energy demand offset by agriculture selling The reporting week to 3 June showed a major divergence in hedge funds' appetite for exposure—strong demand for energy and metals, both precious and industrial, was partly offset by broad net selling across the agriculture sector. Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.4% during the week, with strong gains across both metals sectors being offset by a 3.4% loss in the agriculture sector, where all components except coffee suffered setbacks. At the individual commodity level, hedge funds concentrated their demand in WTI crude oil, gas oil, natural gas, gold, and silver. Meanwhile, the broad selling in agriculture was led by soybeans, corn, and sugar. Silver—which had yet to break the USD 35 resistance level as of last Tuesday—saw its net long rise by 36% to 45.4k contracts, just 4.3k contracts below the five-year high set in March. In contrast, fresh short selling reduced the platinum net long by 31% to 12.8k contracts, just before prices embarked on a fresh surge that resulted in a 12% rise since last Tuesday.
Time of India
02-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
British entrepreneur of famous food brands bids an emotional goodbye to India in a viral LinkedIn post; See inside
Goodbyes are rarely easy, especially when you're leaving a place that has become more than just a stop on life's journey. Moments like these are emotional, nostalgic, and often full of gratitude. And when someone has spent years building not only a business but also a bond with a country, that goodbye becomes all the more meaningful. India has a way of leaving a deep impression on those who live and work here. With all its energy, warmth, and challenges, it's not just a place, it's an experience. Many people who come from abroad, expecting a short stay, often find themselves unexpectedly rooted. Be it the people, the culture, or the unpredictable positivity of daily life, something keeps them connected. Recently, a British entrepreneur who spent more than a decade in India shared his reflections on LinkedIn before returning to England with his family. What stood out wasn't just the business impact he made, but the genuine respect and love he developed for the country. After spending 12 years in India, British entrepreneur Jasper Reid, Founder and CEO of International Market Management (IMM), shared a moving post on LinkedIn as he prepared to return to England with his family. 'More than the three years we planned and just about enough to know how India works,' Reid wrote, summarising his long stay in a single sentence. Reid originally came to India on a short-term plan, but ended up staying much longer. During his time here, he played an important role in bringing PizzaExpress to India, and later helped launch Wendy's and Jamie's restaurants in 15 cities and 75 locations, creating thousands of jobs and making a lasting impact on India's food and hospitality sector. Reflecting on the experience, Reid said, 'What did we learn? Above all, we learnt patience, resilience, hard work, and hospitality. These values have declined in many countries, but are alive and well in India... Our privilege was to learn the market ground up, brick by brick, and over a long time. There is no substitute if you aim to succeed here.' His post also touched on the human side of their journey. During the COVID-19 lockdown, Reid and his team stepped up in a big way. 'We fed and helped a million people and bused thousands of migrant workers home,' he shared. Describing India, Reid wrote, 'At any time, India is rich in humanity, excitement, and challenge, but also intensely demanding, hard, and wearing. There's no country like it, and if GDP were measured in souls, India wins. We love India truly, madly and deeply.' He also had advice for Indian business owners, 'Set your people free. It's the best thing you will ever do.' According to Reid, empowering and trusting teams was key to his success here. Reid's family connection to India goes way back, as his grandfather helped build Kolkata's Dum Dum Airport, his father worked with HelpAge India, and his wife's uncle founded a school in Sikkim. His daughters, the fourth generation to live in India, have now finished school in Delhi. Even as they move back, Reid wrote, 'Now we have two parental homes and are not really leaving India but moving to the other side of a great, glorious, magic circle.'
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Business Standard
02-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
12 years, 75 cities, 1 letter: British CEO's goodbye to India goes viral
After 12 years in India, British businessman Jasper Reid, founder and CEO of International Market Management (IMM), is bidding farewell to a country that, in his words, has become home. In a heartfelt post that has since gone viral on LinkedIn, Reid shared a message as he and his family prepare to return to England. Accompanied by a family photo, the entrepreneur reflected on the lessons, challenges, and deep personal ties built during his time in India. 'More than the three years we planned and just about enough to know how India works,' he wrote, summarising a journey that far exceeded expectations. From temporary plan to long-term legacy Reid arrived in India with a short-term vision but ended up staying far longer. Over the past decade, he and his team brought global food brands to Indian cities—launching PizzaExpress, Wendy's, and Jamie's restaurants across 75 locations in 15 cities. Their work created thousands of jobs and helped shape the modern casual dining scene in India. But Reid says the most valuable takeaways weren't just about business. 'What did we learn? Above all, we learnt patience, resilience, hard work, and hospitality,' he wrote. 'These values have declined in many countries, but are alive and well in India.' He added a word of caution for international entrepreneurs: 'India dances to its own tune… For outsiders, the tune can sound familiar but may be misleading; a siren call. Our privilege was to learn the market ground up, brick by brick, and over a long time. There is no substitute if you aim to succeed here.' Reid also highlighted the role his team played during the Covid-19 lockdown, a period that tested both business and humanity. 'We fed and helped a million people and bused thousands of migrant workers home,' he wrote. While acknowledging India's complexity—'essentially two countries'—Reid emphasised the soul of the nation as its defining feature. 'At any time, India is rich in humanity, excitement, and challenge, but also intensely demanding, hard, and wearing. There's no country like it, and if GDP were measured in souls, India wins. We love India truly, madly and deeply,' he wrote. In one of the post's most widely appreciated lines, Reid offered candid advice to Indian business owners, 'Set your people free. It's the best thing you will ever do.' Reid's personal bond spanning generations Reid's connection to India runs deep. His grandfather helped build Dum Dum Airport in Kolkata. His father worked with HelpAge India. His wife's uncle founded a school in Sikkim. Now, his daughters have completed their schooling in Delhi and are heading to university in the UK. Despite the move, Reid made it clear that India remains close to his heart. 'Now we have two parental homes and are not really leaving India but moving to the other side of a great, glorious, magic circle.' Social media reacts The post also struck a chord with professionals across LinkedIn. Many described it as raw, real, and respectful. Others said Reid's words echoed their own journey of working and living in India. One user wrote, 'Wow what a feat! I've been working in the India market for 20 years but always traveling back and forth. So hats off to you and your family!!' Another commented, 'Wow, what a heartfelt tribute to India! Your experiences, insights, and love for the country shine through. You've left an indelible mark on India, and your stories will continue to inspire. All the best for your new chapter in England!"
