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Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The dollar sees a rebound after US strikes Iran, but can it continue?
The dollar rose on Monday as uncertainty over the Israel Iran conflict persisted following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. By around 2.45 CEST, the Dollar Index had risen 0.61% in daily trading to 99.31. Over the month, it showed a 0.19% increase, although its year-to-date value was still down almost 9%, failing to win back losses linked to erratic policies from the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump said that the weekend strikes had caused 'monumental damage', although some Iranian officials downplayed the impact. The full extent of the damage could not immediately be determined by the UN's nuclear watchdog. Israel — meanwhile — continued with its strikes on Iran on Monday, while Tehran vowed that it would 'never surrender to bullying and oppression'. Several nations warned Iran against a retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane responsible for around 20% of global oil and gas flows. 'In this morning's trading session, the dollar staged an expected rebound. The demonstration of US military strength, as well as the fear of higher oil prices, weakened the euro,' said ING economists in a note. Higher oil prices would likely drive up inflation and discourage the US Federal Reserve from cutting rates in the near future. This would spell bad news for US consumers but would simultaneously increase the dollar's attractiveness to investors. 'Looking ahead, one of the key questions is whether US involvement in the conflict could restore the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Here, a crucial factor will be the duration of any potential Strait of Hormuz blockade. The longer such a blockade lasts, the higher the likelihood that the value of safe-haven alternatives like the euro and yen is eroded, and the dollar can enjoy a decent recovery,' said ING economists. Related Energy in Europe is also at stake as Israel-Iran conflict escalates Is Trump destroying the dollar - and what does it mean for the euro? The greenback's value has dropped significantly this year as policies from the Trump administration have spooked investors, damaging the currency's status as a safe-haven asset. Signals worrying investors are not solely linked to trade policy, but also include a high US deficit, the cost-slashing bureau DOGE, sudden cuts to foreign aid, withdrawals from international treaties, and the prospect of financial deregulation. Greg Hirt, chief investment officer with Allianz Global Investors, told Euronews that 'structural issues around a twin deficit and the Trump administration's volatile handling of tariffs should continue to weigh on an overvalued US dollar'. Even so, he noted that the 'short term potential for higher oil prices will likely affect the Chinese and European economies to a greater extent, as they are more dependent on oil imports than the US'. Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, reiterated this point, noting that 'the US economy is essentially energy independent but others are not, including Japan as it imports most of its oil from the Middle East'. Sweet told Euronews that dollar gains are positive but still muted as 'currency markets are in a wait and see mode'. There is also significant uncertainty around President Trump's tariff deadline, with a 90-day pause on so-called 'reciprocal' duties set to expire on 9 July. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil Prices Set For Weekly Loss as War Premium Evaporates
Crude oil prices were set to end the week lower than they started it as Israel and Iran stopped bombing each other, alleviating fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $68 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $65.55 per barrel. That's down from over $77 for Brent crude and $73 per barrel for WTI at the end of last week. Still, both benchmarks inched higher on Thursday this week, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a draw in both crude oil and fuel inventories, and signs of strengthening demand and a ramp-up in refining activity. 'The market is starting to digest the fact that crude oil inventories are very tight all of a sudden,' Phil Flynn, an analyst from Price Futures Group, told Reuters. ING analysts, meanwhile, noted that now that the risk of a Middle Eastern supply disruption was off the table, focus would return to tariffs. The U.S. is due to finalise trade agreements with 10 countries after reaching a deal with China earlier in the month. If the other ten deals are successful, which will likely be the case, the tariff threat will also be removed from the oil market, which may provide a boost for demand and, consequently, prices. A cheaper U.S. dollar should also help. The greenback slumped this week on reports President Trump was going to make his Fed chair pick early. Besides the tariff business, ING also noted OPEC+'s next meeting, due to be held on July 6, which the bank's analysts expect will result in yet another 411,000-bpd production boost. 'These supply hikes should ensure that the oil market moves into a large surplus towards the end of the year. This assumes we don't see a re-escalation in the Middle East, which would lead to supply losses,' Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote. By Irina Slav for More Top Reads From this article on
South China Morning Post
a day ago
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China industrial profits sink 9% in May on ‘weak demand', US trade dispute
China's industrial profits fell by more than 9 per cent in May over the same month of 2024, according to data released on Friday, reflecting what analysts said was weak domestic demand for minerals and motor vehicles, coupled with ramifications of the US-China tariff dispute. Advertisement The National Bureau of Statistics said profits for industrial companies making more than 20 million yuan a year in revenue dropped in May by 9.1 per cent, year on year. Industrial profits fell 9.7 per cent in May over April, after seasonal adjustments, following a 4 per cent rise in April versus March, New York-based Goldman Sachs said in a research note on Friday. And manufacturing profits, part of industry overall, saw a year-on-year increase of 8.6 per cent during the first four months of 2025 before slowing to 5.4 per cent in May, Dutch financial services firm ING calculated. Bureau data also showed that mining profits fell a steep 29 per cent in the first five months of the year compared with the same months of 2024, and that automotive profits shed 11.9 per cent over the same period. Advertisement The bureau blamed insufficient demand, falling prices, and fluctuations in 'short-term factors' for the overall decline in profits last month. Its figures showed that profits reached 2.72 trillion yuan (US$380 billion) in the first five months of 2025, down 1.1 per cent, year on year.
Daily Telegraph
a day ago
- Business
- Daily Telegraph
How to avoid the $138m mistake Aussie travellers keep making
Don't miss out on the headlines from National. Followed categories will be added to My News. Aussie travellers have forked out $138 million in avoidable international transaction fees over the last year, new research has revealed. A report by ING found holiday-makers dedicated a hefty 20 per cent of their travel budgets to food and dining purchases – an average of $1,477 per traveller. Of that, $82.28 in transaction could have been saved. 'Our new research shows Aussies are increasingly prioritising food and dining experiences when they travel,' ING's head of daily banking Dina Kotsopoulos said. A collective $12bn has been spent by Aussies on overseas dining. Picture: iStock 'We encourage Aussies to confirm with their banks what fees they might be subject to while on holiday, ahead of time, so they can fully enjoy their global foodadventures without unexpected costs.' Ms Kotsopoulos encouraged those looking to travel internationally to plan ahead, check their bank's fees on overseas purchasing and consider their options to avoid incurring avoidable charges before they leave. THE TOP FIVE CUISINES AUSSIES WANT TO MASTER AT HOME The research also found that more travellers are prioritising memorable culinary experiences when holidaying, with 88 per cent of respondents willing to cut back on other aspects of travel, such as shopping and activities, to make room for a good meal. Dina Kotsopoulos, Head of Daily Banking at ING, encouraged Aussies to check with their banks what fees they might be subject to when travelling. Picture: Supplied In March this year, Australia's number one cooking resource surveyed more than 2350 Australians from all cultural backgrounds on their food habits for their Taste the World report. It found Millennials were the most domestically adventurous demographic, with 13 per cent of those aged between 29 and 44 expressing a willingness to travel to a different state or region within Australia to try a particular cuisine. In the last year, a collective $12bn has been spent on overseas culinary experiences alone. Japan remains the biggest hotspot for Aussie travellers, with a 60 per cent uptick in visitors compared to pre-Covid levels. The Asian destination is closely followed by New Zealand, with Queenstown seeing a 14 per cent increase, and Bali with a 27 per cent hike since 2019. India, China and South Korea are also rising in popularity, according to MasterCard's 2025 Travel Trends Report. Consumers are increasingly investing more in experiences, naming travel and tourism, outdoor activities and dining as their top three priorities this year. The top foodie destination was Turkey, with its median restaurant in Istanbul hosting tourists from 67 different countries. This was closely followed by France and Switzerland, each hosting a median of 64 tourist countries each. Originally published as How to avoid the $138m mistake Aussie travellers keep making
South China Morning Post
a day ago
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China industrial profits sink 9% in May on ‘weak demand', US trade dispute
China's industrial profits fell by more than 9 per cent in May over the same month of 2024, according to data released on Friday, reflecting what analysts said was weak domestic demand for minerals and motor vehicles, coupled with ramifications of the US-China tariff dispute. The National Bureau of Statistics said profits for industrial companies making more than 20 million yuan a year in revenue dropped in May by 9.1 per cent, year on year. Industrial profits fell 9.7 per cent in May over April, after seasonal adjustments, following a 4 per cent rise in April versus March, New York-based Goldman Sachs said in a research note on Friday. And manufacturing profits, part of industry overall, saw a year-on-year increase of 8.6 per cent during the first four months of 2025 before slowing to 5.4 per cent in May, Dutch financial services firm ING calculated. Bureau data also showed that mining profits fell a steep 29 per cent in the first five months of the year compared with the same months of 2024, and that automotive profits shed 11.9 per cent over the same period. The bureau blamed insufficient demand, falling prices, and fluctuations in 'short-term factors' for the overall decline in profits last month. Its figures showed that profits reached 2.72 trillion yuan (US$380 billion) in the first five months of 2025, down 1.1 per cent, year on year.
