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News18
2 days ago
- Politics
- News18
Iran Out Of IAEA: How Does The Global Watchdog Monitor Nuclear Activities? Explained
Last Updated: Iran Out Of IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency's safeguard toolkit includes physical surveillance, material tracking, data analytics and scientific sampling In a world with multiple ongoing wars, the role of a nuclear watchdog like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remains crucial. Iran announced on June 28 that it has ended its cooperation with the IAEA. It removed the monitoring devices, including surveillance cameras, from centrifuge halls. This move followed the news by the IAEA that Iran's enrichment activities are well outside of allowed levels. Iran now operates sophisticated uranium centrifuges, like models IR-6 and IR-9. What exactly is the role of IAEA? Can countries opt out of it? What happens then? What does IAEA do? When a country seeks to develop a peaceful nuclear energy program, with a promise not to build a nuclear weapon, the global community verifies that stated intent via the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Once a country signs the treaty, IAEA provides continuous and technical proof that the country's nuclear program is peaceful. The Associated Press reported that the IAEA ensures that countries operate their programs within the limits of non-proliferation agreements: low enrichment and no reactor misuse. Part of the agreement allows the IAEA to inspect nuclear-related sites, including unannounced surprise visits. These are not just log reviews. Inspectors know what should and should not be there. When the IAEA is not on site, cameras, tamper-revealing seals on equipment, and real-time radiation monitors are working full-time to gather or verify inside information about the program's activities. — IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ (@iaeaorg) July 19, 2025 What is the IAEA safeguards toolkit? The IAEA safeguards toolkit is designed to detect proliferation activities early. Much of the work is fairly technical. The safeguards toolkit combines physical surveillance, material tracking, data analytics, and scientific sampling. Inspectors are chemists, physicists, and nuclear engineers. They count spent fuel rods in a cooling pond. They check tamper seals on centrifuges. Often, the inspectors walk miles through hallways and corridors carrying heavy equipment. How does IAEA keep track of a nuclear program? According to the AP report, around the facilities, whether for uranium enrichment or plutonium processing, closed-circuit surveillance cameras monitor for undeclared materials or post-work activities. Seals around the facilities provide evidence that uranium gas cylinders have not been tampered with or that centrifuges operate at the declared levels. Beyond seals, online enrichment monitors allow inspectors to look inside centrifuges for any changes in the declared enrichment process. When the inspectors are on-site, they collect environmental swipes: samples of nuclear materials on surfaces, in dust, or in the air. These can reveal if uranium has been enriched to levels beyond those allowed by the agreement. Or if plutonium, which is not used in nuclear power plants, is being produced in a reactor. Swipes are precise. They can identify enrichment levels from a particle smaller than a speck of dust. But they take time, days, or weeks. Inspectors analyze the samples at the IAEA's laboratories using sophisticated equipment called mass spectrometers. In addition to physical samples, IAEA inspectors look at the logs of material inventories. They look for diversion of uranium or plutonium from normal process lines, just like accountants trace the flow of finances, except that their verification is supported by the ever-watching online monitors and radiation sensors. They also count items of interest and weigh them for additional verification of the logs. Beyond accounting for materials, IAEA inspectors verify that the facility matches the declared design. For example, if a country is expanding centrifuge halls to increase its enrichment capabilities, that's a red flag. Changes to the layout of material processing laboratories near nuclear reactors could be a sign that the program is preparing to produce unauthorized plutonium. In its 20th year, the Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material has expanded the treaty to include nuclear smuggling and sabotage of nuclear facilities as on: — IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ (@iaeaorg) July 14, 2025 Has IAEA ever spotted a violation? Thanks to the IAEA, the world learned in April 2021 about Iran pushing uranium enrichment from reactor-fuel-grade to near-weapons-grade levels. IAEA inspectors were able to verify that Iran was feeding uranium into a series of centrifuges designed to enrich the uranium from 5%, used for energy programs, to 60%, which is a step toward the 90% level used in nuclear weapons. What does removing IAEA access mean? Removing IAEA access means that the international community loses insight into how quickly Iran's program can accumulate weapon-grade uranium, or how much it has produced. Also lost is information about whether the facility is undergoing changes for proliferation purposes. These processes are difficult to detect with external surveillance, like satellites, alone. An alternative to the uranium enrichment path for producing nuclear weapons material is plutonium. Plutonium can't be mined, it has to be produced in a nuclear reactor. Iran built a reactor capable of producing plutonium, the IR-40 Heavy Water Research Reactor at the Arak Nuclear Complex. Iran modified the Arak reactor under the now-defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to make plutonium production less likely. During the June 2025 missile attacks, Israel targeted Arak's facilities with the aim of eliminating the possibility of plutonium production. With IAEA access suspended, it won't be possible to see what happens inside the facility. Can the reactor be used for plutonium production? Although a lengthier process than the uranium enrichment path, plutonium provides a parallel path to uranium enrichment for developing nuclear weapons. The IAEA's Nuclear Security Training and Demonstration Centre offers state-of-the-art nuclear security courses to help countries maintain the highest level of nuclear security. Watch this ⤵️ — IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ (@iaeaorg) July 19, 2025 Has it ever been done in the past? top videos View all North Korea expelled IAEA inspectors in 2009. Within a few years, they restarted activities related to uranium enrichment and plutonium production in the Yongbyon reactor. The international community's information about North Korea's weapons program now relies solely on external methods: satellite images, radioactive particles like xenon – airborne fingerprints of nuclear activities – and seismic data. With AP Inputs About the Author News Desk The News Desk is a team of passionate editors and writers who break and analyse the most important events unfolding in India and abroad. From live updates to exclusive reports to in-depth explainers, the Desk More Get Latest Updates on Movies, Breaking News On India, World, Live Cricket Scores, And Stock Market Updates. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! tags : iaea iran nuclear view comments Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: July 21, 2025, 15:36 IST News explainers Iran Out Of IAEA: How Does The Global Watchdog Monitor Nuclear Activities? 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Leaders
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Leaders
What We Know About the Iranian Nuclear Facilities Targeted in US Strikes
US has launched airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities, employing stealth bombers and bunker-busting munitions in an operation aimed at supporting Israel's ongoing military campaign against Iran. The strikes, which began on 13 June, were designed to cripple Tehran's uranium enrichment capabilities and hinder its nuclear ambitions. The Targets: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan The US strikes focused on three of the most critical and advanced sites in Iran's nuclear program: the Fordow enrichment plant, the Natanz nuclear facility, and the Isfahan nuclear complex. Each of these locations plays a pivotal role in Iran's production and development of nuclear fuel. Fordow Facility Located approximately 30 kilometers northeast of the city of Qom, the Fordow site is entirely built into a mountain at an altitude of 1,750 meters, shielded by dense rock and volcanic layers—making it one of Iran's most fortified nuclear sites. The underground facility houses two halls and has the capacity to accommodate around 3,000 IR-1 centrifuges. It is primarily used to enrich uranium up to 60% purity—just below the weapons-grade threshold. Fordow has long been seen as a primary military target due to both its technical capabilities and hardened location. Natanz Reactor Situated near the central Iranian city of Kashan, the Natanz site is protected by a 22-meter-thick combination of earthen and concrete cover and surrounded by mountainous terrain. It includes both main and pilot enrichment plants and hosts over 14,000 centrifuges of various generations (IR-1, IR-2m, IR-4, and IR-6). Natanz serves as Iran's main industrial enrichment center, responsible for producing the majority of the country's low-enriched uranium. It is also central to the research and development of advanced centrifuge technology. Isfahan Nuclear Complex Located on a barren plateau south of Isfahan city, far from major population centers, the complex is not hardened or underground. It contains the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF), a fuel fabrication plant, and three research reactors. Strategically vital, the Isfahan complex supports both the Natanz and Fordow facilities by supplying essential nuclear materials. It lies at the heart of Iran's nuclear research and manufacturing infrastructure. Statements from Washington and Tehran Earlier today, former U.S. President Donald Trump hailed the airstrikes as a major success, claiming they had 'wiped out' Iran's principal nuclear sites. 'Fordow is gone,' Trump declared, adding that the main enrichment installations had been 'completely and utterly destroyed.' He urged Iran to 'choose peace now.' In contrast, Iranian media outlet Tasnim quoted an unnamed Iranian official who downplayed the impact, stating the nuclear sites had been evacuated in advance and had not sustained irreparable damage. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran also assured the public there was 'no risk of radiation leakage' as a result of the strikes. The US operation marks a dramatic escalation in the conflict, with significant implications for regional stability and the future of Iran's nuclear program. Related topics: US Strikes Iran: Fordo Nuclear Site 'Gone' in Conflict Escalation No Radiation Detected in Saudi Arabia, GCC after US Strikes on Iran: NRRC Tehran Vows Retaliation to US Strikes as Iranian Missiles Hit Israel Short link : Post Views: 8
Miami Herald
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Five Satellite Images That Reveal Israel's Damage to Iran
New satellite imagery reveals multiple sites across Iran targeted in airstrikes, including nuclear facilities, in what Israel describes as a preemptive campaign to dismantle Iran's nuclear weaponization program. Iran, denying those accusations, has responded with missile attacks on Israel, as the conflict continues to escalate with reported damage and casualties on both sides. The conflict, now entering its fourth day, has destabilized the Middle East and raised the stakes of a broader regional conflict drawing in wider geopolitical actors that could include the United States, Israel's main ally and Iran's longtime foe. Tehran has accused Washington of supporting the attack, from which the United States initially distanced itself and made clear it did not participate in but later helped Israel counter Iranian reprisals. After warning the U.S. and its allies not to help Israel repel its retaliatory attacks, an Iranian missile has struck near the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv on Monday. Israel has struck Iran's nuclear sites, airports, residential areas and the largest gas field amid other critical infrastructure and also killing senior officials. The major escalation was met with a series of missiles launched from Iran on Israel-observed from the skies of Israel's neighboring Arab countries-that have breached Israel's Iron Dome defenses and killed civilians, according to the authorities. Iran has said there was damage to several sites, although the scale is yet to be determined. The International Atomic Energy Agency said it did not observe damages at Natanz and other nuclear sites struck on Friday, according to Reuters. Satellite images by Planet Labs provided to Newsweek have shown key sites in Iran which have sustained damages. On June 13, Iran confirmed that Israel hit the Natanz nuclear facility, the country's main underground multi-level enrichment site. The Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, a central component of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, has reportedly seen its operations disrupted in the recent attack on June 13. A massive explosion was reported near Tabriz Airport on Friday afternoon, according to Iran's Mehr news Agency. Several explosions were heard in the city of Kermanshah, where Iranian media said Israel also targeted a hospital. Israel struck at Fordow nuclear site after Natanz, according to The Jerusalem post, a sensitive location believed to have been the target of Israeli intelligence for months. A day before Israeli strikes, Iran had given the order to replace first-generation centrifuges with advanced IR-6 machines at the enrichment site, in response to a condemning IAEA resolution. Iran denies that its uranium enrichment is aimed at building nuclear weapons. Colonel Reza Sayyad, spokesperson for the Armed Forces, warned Israeli citizens on Sunday, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Warnings for you in the coming days: Leave the occupied territories, because they certainly won't be inhabitable in the future!" Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday: "Our wonderful combat pilots are in the skies above the burning city of Tehran. We are determined to complete the mission of removing the double threat". Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Friday: "This development is deeply concerning. I have repeatedly stated that nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances, as it could harm both people and the environment. Such attacks have serious implications for nuclear safety, security and safeguards, as well as regional and international peace and security." Both nations are entrenched in a cycle of retaliation, with Israel warning Iranian citizens it is going to attack more military sites. World leaders are seeking a de-escalation of the situation. Related Articles Iran's Streets Marked by Dread and Defiance Under Israeli AttackIDF Claims Major Breakthrough in Iran ConflictUS Embassy Damaged By Iranian Missile Strike In Tel AvivMark Levin Calls for Regime Change in Iran as MAGA Israel Fissure Grows 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Sydney Morning Herald
13-06-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
Where are Iran's nuclear facilities and does it have a nuclear weapons program?
Is Iran increasing its uranium enrichment? Yes. Iran has been expanding its uranium enrichment program ever since the pact broke down, reducing the so-called 'breakout time' it would need to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb to days or little more than a week from at least a year under the 2015 deal. Actually making a bomb with that material would take longer. How long is less clear and is the subject of debate. Iran is now enriching uranium to up to 60 per cent fissile purity, close to the 90 per cent of weapons-grade, at two sites, and in theory it has enough material enriched to that level, if enriched further, for six bombs, according to a yardstick of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN watchdog. Natanz Netanyahu said on Friday that Israel had targeted Natanz – a complex at the heart of Iran's enrichment program on a plain abutting mountains outside the Shi'ite Muslim holy city of Qom, south of Tehran – as part of its attack. Natanz houses facilities including two enrichment plants: the vast, underground Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) and the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP). An exiled Iranian opposition group revealed in 2002 that Iran was secretly building Natanz, igniting a diplomatic stand-off between the West and Iran over its nuclear intentions that continues today. The FEP was built for enrichment on a commercial scale, able to house 50,000 centrifuges. Around 16,000 centrifuges are currently installed there, roughly 13,000 of which are in operation, refining uranium to up to 5 per cent purity. Diplomats with knowledge of Natanz describe the FEP as being about three floors below ground. There has long been debate about how much damage Israeli airstrikes could do to it. Damage has been done to centrifuges at the FEP by other means, including an explosion and power cut in April 2021 that Iran said was an attack by Israel. The above-ground PFEP houses only hundreds of centrifuges but Iran is enriching to up to 60 per cent purity there. Fordow On the opposite side of Qom, Fordow is an enrichment site dug into a mountain and therefore probably better protected from potential bombardment than the FEP. The 2015 deal with major powers did not allow Iran to enrich at Fordow at all. It now has around 2000 centrifuges operating there, most of them advanced IR-6 machines, of which up to 350 are enriching to up to 60 per cent. The United States, Britain and France announced in 2009 that Iran had been secretly building Fordow for years and had failed to inform the IAEA. US president Barack Obama said then: 'The size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful program.' Isfahan Iran has a large nuclear technology centre on the outskirts of Isfahan, its second-largest city. It includes the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant (FPFP) and the uranium conversion facility (UCF) that can process uranium into the uranium hexafluoride that is fed into centrifuges. Iran also stores enriched uranium at Isfahan, diplomats say. There is equipment at Isfahan to make uranium metal, a process that is particularly proliferation-sensitive since it can be used to devise the core of a nuclear bomb. The IAEA has said there are machines for making centrifuge parts at Isfahan, describing it in 2022 as a 'new location'. Khondab Iran has a partially built heavy-water research reactor originally called Arak and now Khondab. Heavy-water reactors pose a nuclear proliferation risk because they can easily produce plutonium which, like enriched uranium, can be used to make the core of an atom bomb. Under the 2015 deal, construction was halted, the reactor's core was removed and filled with concrete to make it unusable. The reactor was to be redesigned 'to minimise the production of plutonium and not to produce weapon-grade plutonium in normal operation'. Iran has informed the IAEA that it plans to start operating the reactor in 2026. Tehran research centre Iran's nuclear research facilities in Tehran include a research reactor. Bushehr Iran's only operating nuclear power plant, on the Gulf coast, uses Russian fuel that Russia then takes back when it is spent, reducing the proliferation risk.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Damning IAEA Report Has Given Israel Additional Pretext To Strike Iran
The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) findings on Thursday that Iran has tried to hide its nuclear ambitions and Tehran's vow to build new uranium enrichment facilities as a result have given Israel additional pretext for an attack against its longtime nemesis. Meanwhile, a senior Israeli Defense Forces source told us that there 'are credible indications that Israeli operational preparations for a strike on Iran have been completed.' At the same time, what could be last-ditch negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are planned for this weekend, and it's clear that maximum pressure is being put on Iran in hopes of a breakthrough. You can catch up with our previous coverage of this situation here. Iran immediately pushed back on the decision by the IAEA board of governors' demand that it provide answers 'without delay' in a long-running investigation into uranium traces found at several locations that Tehran has failed to declare as nuclear sites. The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) 'Mohammad Eslami has issued orders to establish a new enrichment center in a secure location,' the official Iranian Fars news outlet reported on Thursday. 'Advanced IR-6 centrifuges will replace the older first-generation centrifuges at the Shahid Dr. Alimohammadi (Fordow) site…Further measures are being planned and will be announced in due course, according to the atomic agency and the foreign ministry.' Iran strongly condemns anti-Iran resolution at @iaeaorghttps:// — IRNA News Agency (@IrnaEnglish) June 12, 2025 Iran's announcement about the enrichment sites comes as the Trump administration is working to freeze Iran's nuclear capabilities, and indications are increasing that Israel will attempt to strike at the heart of the country's nuclear program. U.S. President Donald Trump said he has vowed that Iran will not, under any circumstances, obtain nuclear weapons. However, he is also trying to keep Israel from an attack that will likely dive the Middle East into unprecedented turmoil and could have wide-ranging global effects on energy prices. The United States has roughly four optional tiers of involvement if Israel were to execute strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, and possibly additional target sets, such as on its military capabilities and long-range weapons development and production capacity. The first would be to do nothing and let Israel go it totally alone. The second is to provide defensive capabilities only. This includes shooting down incoming missiles and drones headed for Israel, as well as supplying it with related intelligence. The third would be to provide limited support directly to Israel's military campaign. This would likely include aerial refueling — a critical capability of which Israel has a very limited capacity to sustain such an operation — as well as reconnaissance and other targeted intelligence products. Search and rescue outside of Iran could also be a capability provided. Finally, the fourth option would be to participate in the kinetic operation itself, leveraging many capabilities Israel does not possess that could prove highly valuable in significantly degrading Iran's nuclear program. 'I have provided the Secretary of Defense [Pete Hegseth] and the president a wide range of options,' U.S. Central Command Michael 'Erik' Kurilla testified before Congress on Wednesday. The U.S. would likely provide 'aerial refueling or intelligence sharing' as well as the kinds of air and missile defenses seen during previous Iranian attacks on Israel in April 2024 and October 2024, in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran, officials told CBS News 'U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran,' CBS News explained, citing multiple sources. The Trump administration is weighing options to assist Israel without leading the attack, the network posited. A source familiar with the planning told the network that the options are unlikely to include direct participation by B-2A Spirit stealth bombers that can carry the 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs that would be the best U.S. option for trying to penetrate Iran's deep underground fortified uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz. CBS News reports that the Trump administration is weighing options on how to support #Israel in its military strike on #Iran's nuclear program–options are aerial refueling or intelligence — Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) June 12, 2025 However, as we have previously noted, it is questionable that even the use of the MOP could achieve the desired effects of destroying these facilities. On the other hand, it would have a much better chance of damaging or at least destroying direct access to these installations for period of time. Israel currently has nuclear weapons, but it possesses no conventional munitions that can match that capability. Of note, we have discussed in the past the possibility that Israel could use its secretive, conventionally armed Jericho ballistic missile in any fight with Iran. It is also possible that Israel could launch a special operations ground raid against Iran's most hardened nuclear facilities. Earlier this year, we shared vivid details about just such a mission Israel conducted against an underground Iranian missile facility in Syria that was something of a blueprint for such an operation. As we have stated for years, beyond using nuclear weapons or irradiating these facilities, Israel has limited options when it comes to nullifying them. This is where commando operations could come in, although they would be extremely risky. Though the Pentagon is considering limiting its response, as we reported yesterday, it is preparing for an overwhelming response to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Testifying before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday, Hegseth declined to offer any specifics in a public forum on what actions the U.S. may take in the region. Israeli Prime Minister 'Bibi Netanyahu is going to put his country first, and we're going to put our country first, and we're positioned properly in the region to any potential contingency,' Hegseth said when pressed on whether the U.S. will be dragged into a conflict should Israel attack Iran. Among those preparations are the diversion of counter-drone capabilities from Ukraine to the Middle East, which you can read more about in our previous coverage here. In previous stories, we noted that B-2s were deployed to the remote island of Diego Garcia both to send a message to Iran as well as to attack Houthi targets in Yemen during the recently completed campaign against the rebel group, a U.S. official told The War Zone at the time. That campaign began March 15 with a series of aviation and missile strikes against the Iranian-backed group. You can read more about the deployment of B-2s to the remote Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia here. While the Spirits are gone, B-52H bombers, as well as F-15E Strike Eagles, remain on that island even though the U.S. and Yemen have agreed to a ceasefire, another indication that the U.S. is getting ready for a potential conflict in Iran. There are many other U.S. capabilities, including fighter squadrons and air defense units, that have been deployed to the region to beef-up America's presence and provide additional force protection and kinetic options, if needed. NSF Diego Garcia They're back (or they never completely left )….4x B-52 Stratofortress spotted at Diego Garcia along with 6x KC-135 Stratotanker, 6x F-15 and 1x C-5MSrc : @esaDate: 9 June 2025@ — MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) June 10, 2025 An Israeli attack is not a certainty, the senior IDF source told us, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational planning. He was quick to point out that his assessment is not based on classified information, but rather consultation with Israeli military experts and journalists. He estimated that as of today, there is 'around 60% likelihood of some form of strike—limited or targeted—within the next few weeks, and 40% chance that the current posture remains part of a high-stakes deterrence game.' Is Israel about to go kinetic on Iran, possibly the U.S. too? I don't know. There are indicators in the open source & certainly in the media. But if you wanted to put MAXIMUM pressure on Tehran to break free stalled negotiations this would be it. Just something to keep in mind. — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) June 12, 2025 'Of course, this could shift rapidly based on new intelligence, diplomatic developments, or domestic political changes in either Israel or the U.S.,' he added. 'Furthermore, a critical factor increasing the volatility of the current situation is the mutual risk of miscalculation.' 'From an analytical standpoint, the probability of an Israeli strike on Iran in the near term appears to be higher than usual, though still not a certainty,' the source further explained. 'On the Iranian side, there is a real danger they may underestimate Israel's willingness—or immediate need—to act,' the source posited. 'Tehran may assess recent Israeli threats as political posturing tied to Netanyahu's domestic agenda, rather than genuine operational intent. If Iranian leadership assumes Israel is bluffing, they may continue advancing nuclear capabilities or escalating proxy activity without fully anticipating the consequences. This miscalculation could inadvertently trigger a severe Israeli response.' For Israel, 'the calculus may lean toward preventive action, driven not only by intelligence on Iran's capabilities but also by uncertainty about Iran's intentions,' he continued. 'If Israeli intelligence identifies what it interprets as preparations for an Iranian strike—either directly or via proxies—Jerusalem might opt for a preemptive strike to disrupt or delay the threat, especially in a 'fog of war' atmosphere where waiting could mean absorbing the first blow.' Amid the threats, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said Iran is prepared to defend itself and issued a warning to the U.S. and Israel. 'The enemy sometimes threatens us with military action,' Maj. Salami said during a ceremony in Tehran on Thursday, according to the official IRNA news outlet. 'We have always warned the enemy against making any miscalculation.' He added that the Iranian Armed Forces have been 'ready for war at any level' for years,' IRNA reported. 'Iranian officials have warned that any act of aggression against the country will trigger a swift and forceful retaliation, with American interests and military bases in the region identified as potential targets,' IRNA added. On Wednesday, Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh claimed 'that Tehran has successfully tested a missile with a warhead weighing two tons,' according to Fars. 'Iranian officials have repeatedly stressed that the country will not hesitate to enhance its military capacities, including its missile and drone power, which are entirely meant for defense, and that Iran's defense capacities will never be subject to negotiation,' the publication noted. Meanwhile, Axios is reporting that 'White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately warned top Senate Republicans last week that Iran could unleash a mass casualty response if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities, according to a U.S. official and a source with direct knowledge.' The U.S. 'is concerned Israel's air defenses would not be able to handle an Iranian response involving hundreds of missiles, the sources said,' Axios explained. 'Such an attack, Witkoff told the group, could cause massive casualties and damage.' Scoop: White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately warned top Senate Republicans that Iran's retaliation to an Israeli strike on its nuclear program could overwhelm Israel's defenses and cause mass damage and casualties. My story on @axioshttps:// — Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) June 12, 2025 Trump on Thursday hinted that open conflict may be near. 'Well, I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen,' he said in response to a reporter's question, according to the White House press pool. 'Look, it's very simple, not complicated. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful. … We'll help them be successful. We'll trade with them, we'll do whatever is necessary.' TRUMP: "I don't want to say imminent but like it's something that could very well happen" he said when asked about Israel strike on Iran. — Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) June 12, 2025 These developments have prompted warnings to U.S. personnel in the region. 'Due to the increased regional tensions, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be'er Sheva areas until further notice,' the embassy stated on its website. 'Transit between these three areas, including to and from Ben Gurion Airport, is authorized. Transiting Route 1 to and from Allenby Bridge is also permitted.' Israel: Due to the increased regional tensions, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be'er Sheva areas until further notice. Transit between these… — Travel – State Dept (@TravelGov) June 12, 2025 That move follows warnings the State Department and U.S. Central Command issued on Wednesday to U.S. personnel within striking distance of Iran due to the increasing tensions. 'Do not travel to Iraq due to terrorism, kidnapping, armed conflict, civil unrest, and the U.S. government's limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Iraq,' the State Department said in a statement. 'Do not travel to Iraq for any reason.' 'The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is monitoring the developing tension in the Middle East,' a U.S. defense official told The War Zone Wednesday afternoon. 'Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the CENTCOM AOR. CENTCOM is working in close coordination with our Department of State counterparts, as well as our Allies and partners in the region to maintain a constant state of readiness to support any number of missions around the world at any time.' Speaking to reporters Wednesday night at the Kennedy Center in Washington, Trump explained the warnings to U.S. personnel and civilians in the region. 'They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place,' the president said. 'We'll see what happens. They can't have a nuclear weapon, very simple.' REPORTER: "Could you provide an update on Iran? US personnel are being moved out of the region."TRUMP: "They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place. We'll see what happens.""They can't have a nuclear weapon, very simple." — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 11, 2025 All this comes ahead of what could be a last-ditch effort to avoid open conflict. On Sunday, talks will take place in Oman between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, The Jerusalem Post reported on Thursday. 'This will be the sixth round of discussions on the nuclear deal. Western diplomats described this round as 'decisive,' amid the U.S . demand for a complete halt to uranium enrichment and Iran's assertion that enrichment is its 'natural right,'' the publication reported. Prior to the talks, Witkoff will meet with Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, and Mossad chief, David Barnea. Witkoff declared on Wednesday night that Iran must never be allowed to enrich uranium or develop any nuclear threat. 'A nuclear Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, as does an Iran armed with a large arsenal of missiles,' he said in a speech at a conference hosted by the United Hatzalah organization. 'This is as much an existential threat as the nuclear threat itself. It is an existential threat to the United States, the free world, and all Gulf states. We must stand firm and united against this danger and ensure that Iran never acquires the means to fulfill its deadly ambitions, no matter the cost.' Author's note: Tyler Rogoway contributed to the technical aspects of this report. Contact the author: howard@
