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New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Can Bryan Mbeumo be the ‘triple threat' that Manchester United's attack sorely needs?
When Sir Jim Ratcliffe gave a series of interviews from INEOS' headquarters in Knightsbridge a few months ago, one name came up more often than you might expect: Ian Graham. You probably know Graham as Liverpool's former director of research, who, alongside Michael Edwards, championed data science behind the scenes from a pokey box room at Melwood and ultimately played a key part in putting another of English football's behemothic clubs back on their perch. Graham left Liverpool in 2023 and, last year, published his book 'How to Win the Premier League'. Has Ratcliffe read it? Some of those close to the petrochemicals billionaire were not sure when asked by The Athletic, but said they would not be surprised. If Project 150 is to be completed, it should probably find its way to his bedside table sometime before 2028. Advertisement If he has read it, or when he does, Ratcliffe will learn that one of the key elements of Liverpool's data-influenced approach was Graham's 'possession value' model, which calculated if a player's every action in possession contributed to his team's chances of scoring or conceding a goal. Graham's model was partly inspired by Dean Oliver's concept of 'usage' in his book 'Basketball on Paper', which can also be broadly applied to its fellow 'invasion' sport: football. Put simply, this is the idea that a player can only score a goal if they shoot. But shooting often ends a spell of possession, and a team can only score if they have the ball. Sometimes it is more advantageous to play an extra pass or beat an opponent with a dribble. Ideally, your best attacking players should be capable of doing all three of those things, and should know when one or the other will improve their team's chances of scoring. They should be, what Graham calls, a 'triple threat'. 'These players are difficult to defend against,' he writes. 'They can choose to pass or dribble instead of shoot. And they use up fewer possessions than players whose only skill is shooting.' Liverpool's research department believed they had three 'triple threats' in Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino. But they also considered each to have particular strengths which complemented the others. Firmino's ability to link play and find the right pass made the most of Salah's expert finishing, for example. For all the complex metrics and machine learning, here was an example of the simple, intuitive logic at the heart of Liverpool's title-winning data science. The best frontlines are balanced frontlines, where the players have complementary strengths and no clear weaknesses. So, how much attention was Ratcliffe paying by page 152, if indeed he has read that far? Advertisement The targeting, pursuit and long-awaited agreement to sign Bryan Mbeumo suggests at least some, because you would be hard-pressed to find another Premier League player who added more value to his team's attacks than the Brentford winger. Outside of Anfield, at least. According to StatsBomb's On-Ball Value (OBV) metric — a possession-value model of the type that was a cornerstone of Graham's work — only Salah added more value to his team's attacks last season than United's new £65million ($87.2m) signing. Those figures are total values rather than per 90 minutes, meaning players such as Salah and Mbeumo benefit somewhat from having consistently played a lot of football last season. Yet these metrics record both positive and negative contributions, punishing errors and mistakes harshly. Players with a lot of minutes have more opportunities to be both rewarded but also to be penalised. Still, Mbeumo ranked highly among his peers. Clearly, United will be hoping for a repeat of his 20 league goals — the fourth-most of any player last season and a career best for Mbeumo — although five came by dint of being Brentford's penalty-taker, a responsibility he is unlikely to assume from Bruno Fernandes. As has been well documented, Mbeumo overperformed his 12.3 expected goals (xG) significantly last term. That will almost certainly not be repeatable season after season at Old Trafford. Yet, last season was actually a down year on the underlying metrics for the 25-year-old, with his 2.08 shots and 0.20 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes being his lowest totals since becoming a Premier League player. Data by StatsBomb; vs Premier League attacking midfielders/wingers Mbeumo made up for that by ranking far better among his peers on value-added metrics, where his execution of shots helped turn low-quality chances into goals, ranking among the 89th percentile of attacking midfielders and wingers in the Premier League. A repeat in United's colours could, in some ways, mitigate fellow new signing Matheus Cunha's tendency to shoot from range, which led to some spectacular goals from Wolverhampton Wanderers last season but, according to Shot OBV, was often detrimental to his team's chances of scoring. Data by StatsBomb; vs Premier League attacking midfielders/wingers Yet both players are more than just goalscorers anyway, and were arguably most influential as providers last term. Both ranked highly among players in their position for Pass OBV, with only three players adding more value to attacks than Mbeumo: Fernandes, Salah and his Brentford team-mate Mikkel Damsgaard. Advertisement For all that Mbeumo overperformed in terms of his goalscoring, the quality of the chances that he created for teammates suggests that he was unfortunate not to have racked up a couple more assists. As we can see from the map below, he was excellent at moving the ball into the box from his wide role, frequently finding players inside the six-yard box from corners, perhaps a product of Brentford's meticulous approach to set pieces. Crucially for United, both players stood out among the rest of the league as front-footed and progressive, whether that was passing or dribbling. It is something that Ruben Amorim's side sorely lacked, with often only Fernandes' playmaking driving the team up the pitch. Again, Mbeumo ranked highly for adding value to Brentford's attacks through his dribbling last season, with Cunha not far behind for Wolves. One player to outperform both was Amad, who may now see more minutes at wing-back this season as a result of United's spending targeting the two No 10 spots. Mbeumo could be more effective when dribbling, though, and more threatening on goal too. As well as he ranks on possession-value metrics, his raw volume in terms of shots, progressive carries and take-ons was below the Premier League average last season. Mbeumo often lingered on the edge of attacking moves and held the width at Brentford — though he could be decisive when he picked up the ball and looked to drive inside. It is not just penalties he could lose, either. A steady diet of set-piece duties has helped lift those eye-catching chance-creation numbers. Cunha held many of the same responsibilities at Molineux, too. But both are well-rounded attacking players who can shift the emphasis of an attack in various ways with the ball at their feet. The type that last season's often staid, predictable United attack badly needed. And particularly in the case of Mbeumo. Whether Ratcliffe has read Graham's book or not, there is a hint of its lessons in the identity of the biggest signing he has sanctioned at Old Trafford to date. United must hope they have found their own 'triple threat'. Additional reporting: Thom Harris (Lee Parker – CameraSport via Getty Images)
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Why Liverpool signed Darwin Nunez over Alexander Isak 'as Reds plot huge new bid for Newcastle star'
Amid transfer speculation linking Liverpool with Alexander Isak, the reason behind the Reds' decision to sign Darwin Nunez over the Newcastle star in 2022 has been revealed. Jurgen Klopp's side were linked with both men that summer but eventually opted for Nunez, signing the striker from Benfica for a then-club record fee, leaving Newcastle free to break their own transfer record by bringing Isak from Real Sociedad to St James' Park for a similar price. But while Nunez's progress has stalled somewhat in the seasons since then, leading to repeated rumours of a cut-price move away from Anfield this summer, Isak has grown into one of the Premier League's best strikers. Isak is now thought to be on Liverpool's summer wish list as Arne Slot looks to make a new world-class centre forward the latest addition to his Premier League-winning squad. Given the two strikers' contrasting fortunes, particularly last season when Isak's league goals tally of 23 was more than quadruple that of Nunez, Liverpool's detractors may view the decision to sign the streaky Uruguayan over his Swedish counterpart as a mistake. In an interview with the Financial Times, former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham has suggested it was then-Reds manager Klopp who made the call to pursue Nunez over Isak thanks to the German manager gaining increasing power over transfer decisions. 'Jurgen created a lot of success for the club, so it's understandable why it moved in that direction,' Graham said. 'In 2022, he signed Darwin Nunez instead of Alexander Isak. 'Both players, if you look at top young centre-forwards in Europe, they would be number one and two (at the time), or two and three but [Erling] Haaland was going to [Manchester] City and out of our price range. Jurgen preferred Nunez.' The ex-Liverpool staffer, who between 2012 and 2023 worked to implement data analysis into the club's transfer policy, continued: 'It would be very churlish of me to say, 'It's terrible that Jurgen had his choice', when in the past Jurgen had been persuaded by me and my colleagues of a different choice. And it was still the case that we signed good players - in Nunez's case, one of the best young strikers in Europe.' Graham, now chief executive of sports advisory firm Ludonautics, also claimed that Klopp was persuaded by his recruitment team to sign Mohamed Salah from Roma instead of Borussia Dortmund's Julian Brandt in the summer of 2017. 'I'm happy to talk about my colleagues persuading Jurgen [in 2017] that Mo Salah was the player to buy instead of Julian Brandt,' he added. That momentous move to acquire Salah's services would, of course, shape much of Liverpool's success in the years that followed. Discussing the influence of managers in club transfers, Graham said he believes the role of 'coach as dictator' is specific to England and is also 'something that is dying off'.
The Sun
30-06-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Liverpool's former scouting director reveals Jurgen Klopp's huge Alexander Isak mistake that could cost reds £100MILLION
JURGEN KLOPP made a mistake on Alexander Isak which could cost Liverpool £100MILLION. The Newcastle striker is one of the most in-demand stars of this summer's transfer window. 4 4 4 Isak, 25, is wanted by the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool after firing the Magpies back into the Champions League. Newcastle want to keep hold of the prolific Swede and want him to sign a new deal. Any deal that would lure him away from St James' Park is likely to cost more than £150m. Liverpool could have signed Isak back in 2022 from Real Sociedad for just £63m but decided to pursue a move for Darwin Nunez instead. The Uruguayan cost the Reds a then-club record £85million from Benfica while Isak joined Newcastle. Liverpool's former data expert Ian Graham has revealed how Klopp opted for Nunez over the cheaper Isak deal. He told the Financial Time s: "Jurgen created a lot of success for the club, so it's understandable why it moved in that direction (from data-driven decisions to managerial preference). "I'm happy to talk about my colleagues persuading Jurgen (in 2017) that Mohamed Salah was the player to buy instead of Julian Brandt. JOIN SUN VEGAS: GET £50 BONUS "In 2022, he signed Darwin Nunez (for £64m plus add-ons) instead of Alexander Isak. "Both players, if you look at top young centre-forwards in Europe, they would be number one and two — or two and three but (Erling) Haaland was going to (Manchester) City and out of our price range. Viktor Gyokeres to Liverpool LATEST as Reds sweat on Alexander Isak | Transfers Exposed "Jurgen preferred Nunez. It would be very churlish of me to say, 'It's terrible that Jurgen had his choice', when in the past Jurgen had been persuaded by me and my colleagues of a different choice. "And it was still the case that we signed good players — in Nunez's case, one of the best young strikers in Europe." Nunez is expected to leave Anfield this summer but the club will hope to sell him for £60m, according to DiMarzio. But the interested party Napoli are keen to drive his price down in order to push a deal through.
Daily Mail
30-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Revealed: Why Liverpool signed Darwin Nunez over Alexander Isak - as £85million flop nears Anfield exit
Liverpool 's former director of research has revealed why the club decided to push ahead with the signing of Darwin Nunez back in 2022 over Alexander Isak. Nunez joined the Reds in a then club record move from Benfica, splashing out an initial £64m on him, with add-ons rising to a potential £85m. The same summer saw Newcastle break their own transfer record, spending £63m to bring Isak from Real Sociedad. The forwards have had contrasting fortunes in the Premier League with Isak going from strength to strength, while Nunez appears likely to leave this summer. Nunez has scored 40 goals in 143 matches for Liverpool, with the Uruguayan's tally including 25 goals in 95 Premier League games. Despite injury problems having led to Isak playing less matches for Newcastle at 109, Isak has struck 62 times for the Magpies, including 54 goals in 86 Premier League games. Speaking to the Financial Times, Liverpool's former director of research Ian Graham has suggested Jurgen Klopp's growing power over transfer activity at the club was key to the Reds choosing to move for Nunez over Isak. Graham worked at the club between 2012 and 2023 to help use data analysis to aid their transfer policy, and now serves as chief executive of Ludonautics, a sports advisory firm. He explained how Klopp had previously been persuaded by the recruitment team to sign Mo Salah over Julian Brandt in 2017, a decision which proved a masterstroke. Following success in the Premier League and Champions League, the balance of power had altered with Klopp apparently pushing for the signing of Nunez in 2022. 'Jurgen created a lot of success for the club, so it's understandable why it moved in that direction,' Graham said. 'In 2022, he signed Darwin Nunez instead of Alexander Isak. Both players, if you look at top young centre-forwards in Europe, they would be number one and two — or two and three but [Erling] Haaland was going to [Manchester] City and out of our price range. 'Jurgen preferred Nunez. It would be very churlish of me to say, 'It's terrible that Jurgen had his choice', when in the past Jürgen had been persuaded by me and my colleagues of a different choice. 'And it was still the case that we signed good players — in Nunez's case, one of the best young strikers in Europe.' Graham added that he believes manager's having the ultimate say in deciding transfers is both specific to England and is starting to die off, with more faith being placed in recruitment teams over decisions. Klopp had been vocal in his support of Nunez during his time at the club, stepped down as Liverpool boss in the summer of 2024. Nunez racked up 47 appearances last season under Klopp's successor Arne Slot, but started just eight Premier League matches and scored seven times in all competitions. The forward has reportedly been the subject of interest from Napoli, Atletico Madrid, and Saudi Arabian side Al-Hilal this summer, but Napoli are currently viewed as the frontrunners to sign him on a potential cut-price deal. Mail Sport understands Liverpool want to sign a striker this summer if they can afford one. Isak would be the dream target but he is likely to command an even bigger fee than the club's outlay on playmaker Florian Wirtz, an initial £100m rising to £116m with add-ons.
Yahoo
28-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bolton Wanderers end tie-up with sports data firm Ludonautics after two years
WANDERERS have ended their relationship with sports advisory firm Ludonautics. The club has confirmed that the link-up, which was agreed two years ago to give them access to high-end scouting data, has been cut. Advertisement Ludonautics were given B class shares in Bolton's parent company, Football Ventures (Whites) limited, two years ago in exchange for access to data which they felt would help them improve recruitment, specifically overseas. The parting of ways is understood to have been amicable, with Wanderers now shifting back to a more traditional blend of data and in-person scouting under new sporting director, Fergal Harkin. A spokesperson for the club told The Bolton News: 'Our partnership with Ludonautics has ended. We are extremely grateful to Ian (Graham) and his team for their help and expertise on the specific projects we partnered on.' Ludonautics was founded by former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham, who worked in Jurgen Klopp's data room alongside Michael Edwards to create a Premier League and Champions League winning squad between 2012 and 2023. Advertisement Graham was responsible for one of the Premier League's first in-house analytics departments, which paved the way for the data boom of the 2020s but the link with Bolton has not proved as productive as it was originally hoped. Mr Graham said: 'Despite our professional partnership coming to an end, I wish BWFC nothing but success both now and in the future. It was a pleasure to work with and assist their progressive ownership and management team for the period we did."
