06-07-2025
I saw Wales implode and hit rock bottom – this is how it all went so badly wrong
I saw Wales implode and hit rock bottom – this is how it all went so badly wrong
Wales fell to an 18th consecutive Test defeat in Kitakyushu against Japan, following a second-half collapse
Wales players show their pain after the defeat to Japan in Kitakyushu
(Image: Getty Images )
If you put a blindfold on someone and asked them to walk in a straight line, odds are that by the time they regained their sight, they'd learn they had veered off course one way or the other.
There's an element of that at play when Wales captain Dewi Lake, once again having to front up, said after the defeat to Japan that Wales thought they "were in control". Like walking blindfolded, that illusion of control can quickly become detached from reality.
For 45 or so minutes, Wales were largely in control in Kitakyushu. Not brilliant by any means - no one is suggesting that for a second - but in control.
The hot and humid conditions proved tricky. For all the talk of the heat not being an excuse, it's undeniable that, in a game that required an extended half-time, it did have a major impact on the match as a contest - making it a stop-start affair.
An hour-long first-half in that heat wasn't ideal. Yet Wales, if not fluid, were relatively competent in their pragmatic gameplan. Some early edges were found and Wales looked like they could have some joy getting their back-three into the game.
However, they never got close to overplaying - instead leaning on kicking to compete and trying to turn territory into points.
Article continues below
You always sensed that, given the deep scar tissue that has come from 17 consecutive Test defeats, Wales needed a healthy margin to avoid implosion.
Turns out 12 points isn't healthy enough. It really should have been. This isn't a strong Japan side.
Those with an intimate knowledge of this Japan team couldn't see any way such an inexperienced Brave Blossoms side would overcome Wales. Stoppable force, meet the movable object.
Perhaps, the margin could and should have been more. Early on, Wales had decent field position, but a few lineout miscues - as much down to the greasy ball as anything else - hindered them. Sign up to Inside Welsh rugby on Substack for the exclusive five-week tour diary from Japan and Australia.
A failure to take full advantage of Ichigo Nakakusu's yellow card in the first-half - beyond Tom Rogers' immediate try - was a blow, with Japan able to take minutes off the clock well in that period.
Even then, once Rogers had crossed, the signs of decay started to show. Japan got on top at the scrum, while Wales got a little overeager, letting their discipline slip.
By the end of the first-half, the edges Wales had been finding at the start couldn't be reached, as Wales got narrow and went backwards. Perhaps, in the second-half, that became a big part of the reason Wales leaned harder into the pragmatism.
Yet, despite all that, heading into the second-half, it was in Wales' hands. 19-7 up, having made just 27 tackles in the first-half. Exactly where you'd want to be.
And yet, even that wasn't enough. For all our collective sins, let's go back over that miserable 40 minutes of rugby.
40-50 mins: The warning signs are there
From the off, there were warning signs. Michael Leitch caught Kieran Hardy at the back of a caterpillar ruck from the kick-off, but Wales escaped.
Still though, there were chances for Wales to push further ahead. In the week, Matt Sherratt had spoken about getting within striking range and taking opportunities.
Unfortunately, Wales' only real strike move came two minutes after the restart from a lineout on the edge of the Japan 22. After Dewi Lake nailed his arrows, Wales went to the wrap-around with Taulupe Faletau that had created Ben Thomas' opening score.
The wrap-around move that created Wales' first try and gave them early momentum in the second-half
(Image: BBC Sport )
This time, Faletau gave the inside pass to Lake to make a strong carry. It's a weakness in Japan's lineout defence that Wales had targeted well to date - although this would be the last time they would manage it, just 42 minutes in.
Regardless of their phase attack and whether that functioned or not, the inability to create and execute first-phase opportunities in the second-half was costly. Just a handful would have finished off Japan.
From this use of the wrap-around, Lake brought Wales to within just over five metres out from the try-line. They worked it to the left edge across seven phases, before Japan jumped offside.
However, this is where the nerves start to set in. Two lineouts in a row went awry. Both found their man at the tail, but Wales were pinged on the first for obstruction while setting up the maul, while a messy lift allows Japan to get on the ball in the second - forcing a scrum.
A scrum penalty against Wales followed, before Japan caused Wales some trouble in defence. From a lineout, a two-pass strike play exposed Wales' midfield - forcing Johnny Williams to scramble. Just like Takuro Matsunga's first-half score, Wales were caught just a bit too narrow.
Johnny Williams is caught a little narrow off first-phase attack
(Image: BBC Sport )
This is where Wales started to look panicked. Japan's offload went to floor, but Josh Macleod's pop off the deck evaded Faletau and only a knock-on denied Japan a try as Wales showed the first real signs of an impending collapse.
50-60 mins: Wedded to just one style
Moving past the 50-minute mark, the gameplan remained the same. Hit the target at the tail of the lineout, move it to midfield, hoist a box-kick up in the air to chase.
At this point, it was still working, to an extent. Wales were still making the contestables scrappy in the air, with Japan unable to do anything else but kick the ball back to a settled Welsh backfield.
From launch plays, Japan were then getting isolated off lineouts, handing Wales breakdown penalties. Again, it's not exactly vintage, but it's relatively comfortable stuff.
Wales' lineout was still a little scrappy, with the lack of clean ball having forced Sam Costelow into a crossfield kick off the backfoot that he pushes too long. By now, it's obvious what Wales are going to do whenever they get the ball in the middle of the pitch.
The next lineout was overthrown, but Costelow claimed it before Hardy again put up a box-kick. Rogers caused more problems in the air and Macleod eventually won the scraps.
Here's where Wales could and should arguably gone off-script. Rather than see what's on, Rogers dabbed through a grubber from first-receiver into coffin's corner - trying to pin Japan back. In fairness, they cleared under pressure - handing Wales a lineout just outside the 22.
Tom Rogers grubbers through, but could Wales have kept the ball in hand for a little longer?
(Image: BBC Sport )
At this stage of the match, Wales are content to just kick everything. Even with hindsight, you can't really say in definitive fashion Wales kicked too much.
At times, they probably ignored options which you could argue were better. Maybe, you can make the case for Rogers keeping hold of the ball and Wales looking to see what they could create around the edge of the 22.
But if you execute the kick well, then there's no reason that isn't a good option too. It's not black and white.
Unfortunately though, the execution isn't good. Wales lost the lineout, got desperate and chased a turnover at the breakdown - handing Japan a penalty.
The superb Faletau, having started to limp in the searing heat minutes earlier, was replaced alongside Macleod - with Aaron Wainwright and Tommy Reffell coming on. While both should bring experience, it's hard as the momentum, as we're about to see, has already turned.
Japan set up an attack in the Welsh 22, immediately earning a penalty advantage. They continue to build momentum, targeting Welsh overfolds and moving it from edge to edge, before striking.
Again, Japan isolate Johnny Williams and force him to hesitate as they bring numbers around
(Image: BBC Sport )
By now, Wales are tiring. Japan get bodies around the corner fast, meaning Williams has to hesitate for a second as his channel is flooded. That's costly as he can't stop the offload for Nakakusu, who slips through Rogers' tackle to score.
Game, unfortunately, on.
60-70 mins: Unable to course correct
The hour-mark was where the wheels started to fall off. Suddenly, there's only a one-score lead to defend and Wales again got into the habit of over-chasing.
Alex Mann is penalised for entering a maul at the side from the kick-off, before the Cardiff flanker is again penalised moments later for not rolling away. As Wales slipped off tackles, Japan really pushed the tempo.
Only a forward pass denied replacement Ben Gunter a superb team score as they find space with ease. Still, Japan knock over a penalty to close the gap to just two points.
With Japan back in the contest, they turned to box-kicks more - handing Blair Murray the odd opportunity to run the ball back with interest. But Wales are too far deep in their own style of play.
They continue to put it skyward, with Japan continuing to get the second ball. Whereas Costelow and Ben Thomas varied their kicking in the first-half, everything is now coming off Hardy's boot.
Japan's scrum, though, remains on top. One huge shove earns them a penalty 11 minutes from time. Going to the corner, they score from the maul.
Now we're in familiar territory.
70-80 mins: Do we have to relive it?
Suddenly, having been trying to keep Japan at arm's length for so long with one distinct gameplan, Wales are now forced into chasing the game.
In fairness, from the first lineout after Japan score, Wales managed to work an edge, with Murray grubbering through into the Japan 22. Josh Adams chased well, with Japan conceding an attacking lineout.
Wales arguably didn't vary their kicking enough in the second-half
(Image: BBC Sport )
It begs the question why they didn't do that more. Would it really have been overplaying around halfway to try reach the 15-metre channels off a phase or two, then kick behind to find grass.
As the game went on, Japan were the ones getting more from the aerial contests, so why not change tack?
Back to the lineout, Wales' set-piece went awry. Not once, but twice. Then their scrum was penalised.
Back to the box-kick. With just under four minutes to go, they won back one of their box-kicks. However, with no real urgency, Leitch again snatches the ball from under the nose of Hardy - doing what he'd threatened to do at the start of the half.
Michael Leitch is quick to spoil Wales ruck ball
(Image: BBC Sport )
Still, Wales get the ball back with another chance to do something. By now though, they're spent and out of ideas. They start a kicking battle, but it's lacking any real conviction or sense of a plan. Just all hit in hope.
The last time they touched the ball, having ran out of ideas in attack, is with 83 seconds to go. It was comfortable for Japan to hold on.
In the end, it wasn't one thing. It was almost everything in a dismal collapse.
Article continues below
Wales thought they had control, right up until it became apparent they didn't. By then, they were well off-course for a much-needed victory.
Instead, they were on a much more familiar path.
