Latest news with #ImranKhalid
Arabian Post
05-07-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
Why the World Isn't Leaving China
Imran Khalid In a global economic environment that remains shaky and uneven, China's ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) is more than just a bright spot – it's a quiet vindication of long-term planning, policy stability, and a commitment to innovation-led growth. Contrary to Western narratives of economic decoupling or investor flight, the latest data paints a far more grounded picture: foreign capital is not just staying in China – it is doubling down. The numbers are compelling. According to the Ministry of Commerce, foreign direct investment in China's high-tech sectors totalled 109.04 billion yuan ($15.22 billion) between January and May in e-commerce services surged a staggering 146 percent year-on-year, aerospace equipment manufacturing rose by 74.9 percent, and chemical pharmaceuticals saw a 59.2 percent uptick. These are not marginal gains; they signal a structural commitment by foreign firms to tap into China's evolving industrial ecosystem. ADVERTISEMENT It's not hard to see why. China today is not merely a manufacturing hub – it is increasingly a laboratory for business model experimentation and technological advancement. From digital infrastructure to low-carbon industrial transitions, China is setting the pace for what the next generation of economic development looks like. And multinationals are embedding themselves deeper into this transformation. The development of new quality productive forces is accelerating the emergence of innovation-driven digital and green productivity. In this sense, foreign firms are not just beneficiaries of China's rise – they are co-creators of its future. The notion that China is somehow 'closing off' or turning inward misses the mark. What we are witnessing instead is a reconfiguration: from low-cost production to high-value innovation, from simple exports to complex, symbiotic value chains. The recalibration is not only in products, but in purpose. Many foreign companies now view their operations in China as critical nodes in their global strategy. As Nathan Stoner of Cummins emphasized, the goal is 'not only to serve the Chinese market, but also to support Chinese automakers in their global expansion.' Such partnerships underscore a quiet but profound shift: China is no longer just a destination – it is a springboard. Beyond the numbers and boardroom strategies, there is a broader story unfolding – one of renewed confidence in China's institutional and infrastructural resilience. Whether it's the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region's advanced logistics ecosystem, or the growing network of free trade zones, or simply the massive consumer base that embraces digital transformation faster than anywhere else, China offers a business environment that rewards long-term vision. This momentum goes beyond factories and laboratories, reaching into tourism, services, and cultural exchange. The new partnership between Air China, Air New Zealand, and Tourism New Zealand is emblematic of how people-to-people connections are bouncing back with economic consequences. Air New Zealand's $700,000 investment in Chinese market promotion and the expected 33 percent increase in premium seats on the Shanghai-Auckland route are signals of demand recovery and soft power resonance. ADVERTISEMENT In geopolitical terms, this continued flow of capital and confidence into China is instructive. Despite strategic competition, tech restrictions, and trade uncertainties fueled largely by Washington and its allies, global business leaders continue to differentiate between political rhetoric and economic reality. For many, the question is not whether to invest in China – but how to do so more smartly. Indeed, countries like the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Germany have seen their FDI into China rise 60.9 percent, 10.3 percent, and 7.1 percent respectively in the first five months of 2025. These are not economies with trivial stakes – they are core players in the high-tech and automotive sectors, and their renewed bets on China carry weight. The Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, in a mid-June report, noted that foreign enterprises are reshaping industrial chains and driving localized innovation. This is crucial, because it signals not just transactional investment, but transformative integration. It's not only capital that is flowing into China – it is also trust in its long-term vision. Of course, challenges remain. From demographic transitions to the complexities of decarbonization, China's road ahead is not without bumps. But if the current surge in FDI is any indication, global investors are voting with their wallets – and their presence. They are betting on China not out of sentiment, but out of strategy. As the world wrestles with economic fragmentation and sluggish growth, China's continuing ability to attract and absorb foreign investment serves as a reminder: stability, innovation, and openness are not just slogans – they are tangible advantages. In this volatile decade, few nations offer all three at once. China does. And the world is paying attention. Also published on Medium. Notice an issue? Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com. We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.
Arabian Post
14-06-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
The High Stakes of the Latest U.S.-China Agreement
Dr Imran Khalid 'We made a great deal with China. We're very happy with it.' So declared President Donald Trump in his familiar tone of triumphant ambiguity on June 11, fresh off what was touted as a breakthrough agreement to restore a trade truce between the United States and China. But if history has taught us anything, it is that 'done deals' in the Trumpian lexicon tend to be either dangerously fragile or conveniently fungible. The latest accord, emerging from two days of intense talks in London, follows an alarming spiral in trade tensions that had once again threatened to upend global markets and rekindle the tit-for-tat tariff warfare that haunted the latter years of Trump's first term. According to Trump, China has committed to lifting its restrictions on the export of rare earths – materials critical to the global technology and defense sectors – while the U.S. has agreed to a calibrated rollback of punitive measures, including the threatened revocation of visas for Chinese students. ADVERTISEMENT As ever, the devil is not just in the details, but in their implementation. Much like the May Geneva agreement that this deal purports to reinforce, the London framework is conditional, tentative, and, crucially, subject to 'final approval' by both President Trump and President Xi Jinping. That qualifier alone renders the euphoria premature. Still, to be charitable, the very fact that Washington and Beijing are speaking the language of dialogue rather than confrontation is an encouraging sign. Following a phone call between the two leaders earlier this month, there appears to be a renewed willingness – albeit under duress – to keep diplomacy afloat. For a world economy battered by uncertainty, this resumption of talks is, if nothing else, a stabilizing force. Yet, Trump's boastful framing – that the U.S. walks away with a 55% tariff shield while China gets 10% – betrays a zero-sum worldview that continues to inform his trade doctrine. The truth, however, is far less tidy. Tariffs have proved to be a double-edged sword, inflicting damage on American consumers, industries, and allies as much as they have squeezed Chinese exports. The World Bank's recent downward revision of global growth forecasts points to tariffs and unpredictability as 'significant headwinds,' underlining the global costs of such brinkmanship. Beijing, for its part, has projected a more measured tone. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, in remarks following the London consultations, emphasized mutual benefit, calling on the U.S. to 'honor their words with actions.' The Chinese side welcomed the 'principled consensus' as a foundation for predictability and stability in bilateral economic relations. While Beijing's rhetoric may be couched in diplomatic platitudes, it signals a strategic patience that stands in stark contrast to Trump's performative deal-making. Indeed, despite facing considerable pressure – both domestic and international -China has remained consistent in its emphasis on dialogue, reciprocity, and multilateralism. It is no secret that Beijing is playing a longer game. From its support for a multilateral trading system to its efforts in promoting South-South cooperation, China has positioned itself as a steady hand amid a turbulent global order. ADVERTISEMENT In this light, the reestablishment of a U.S.-China economic and trade consultation mechanism should be viewed as more than a temporary fix. It offers a framework through which recurring disputes can be ironed out, interests aligned, and trust slowly rebuilt. Importantly, it provides a venue for strategic communication -something sorely missing during the height of tariff wars in 2018–19. However, for this framework to bear fruit, both sides must resist the urge to revert to maximalist posturing. The United States must accept that unilateralism – whether in tariffs or technology controls – cannot substitute for a sustainable policy. Likewise, China must be prepared to meet the U.S. halfway, especially on issues of market access, intellectual property, and transparency. The elephant in the room, of course, is the technological cold war that continues to simmer beneath the surface. While rare earths and tariff percentages dominate headlines, it is the battle over semiconductors and AI supremacy that threatens to define the next phase of U.S.-China relations. Washington's decision to maintain restrictions on high-end AI chips – particularly those from Nvidia- while easing others, reveals both the complexity and the stakes involved. Beijing, not surprisingly, has responded with innovation. The resurgence of Huawei, once a poster child of American sanctions, stands as testament to China's determination to chart its own technological path. As Huawei's founder Ren Zhenfei put it bluntly this week, China may still be a step behind, but it is catching up – by stacking and clustering if necessary. In the short term, these dynamics will continue to fuel friction. But in the long term, they offer a compelling reason for structured cooperation. For neither side can afford the costs of sustained decoupling. The global economy – still reeling from inflationary shocks, supply chain disruptions, and climate-induced volatility – desperately needs the world's two largest economies to find common ground. To that end, the inclusion of Chinese students in American universities, affirmed in this deal, is more than a diplomatic gesture. It is a recognition that people-to-people ties remain a cornerstone of bilateral engagement. Academic exchanges, research collaboration, and cross-cultural education build bridges that tariffs and bans cannot destroy. They plant the seeds of mutual understanding in a landscape too often scorched by suspicion. The road ahead remains bumpy. Structural trade conflicts persist, strategic mistrust abounds, and electoral politics – particularly in the U.S. – can derail even the most promising of frameworks. But the London agreement offers a glimpse of what is possible when mutual interest outweighs mutual animosity. This development not only helps stabilize U.S.-China relations but also injects much-needed momentum into the global economy. It serves as a reminder that even amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry, there is still space – indeed, an urgent need – for pragmatic cooperation. Trump may brand it a win, but real victory lies not in tariffs or trophies, but in the hard, unglamorous work of sustained diplomacy. For now, both sides have stepped back from the precipice. The challenge will be to keep walking forward – together. Also published on Medium. Notice an issue? Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com. We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.
Nikkei Asia
12-06-2025
- Politics
- Nikkei Asia
Moral clarity or strategic paralysis? ASEAN is caught in Gaza dilemma
Imran K halid is a Karachi-based geostrategic analyst and freelance writer. When Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim urged closer ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coordination on June 7 to help halt Israel's ongoing assault on Gaza, it was more than just diplomatic rhetoric -- it was a clarion call for collective regional conscience. Beneath the rhetoric, however, lies a rather confused regional bloc torn between competing instincts: solidarity versus strategy, moral posture versus economic pragmatism.
Nikkei Asia
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Nikkei Asia
The art of survival: Iran's uneasy dance with the US
Imran Khalid is a Karachi-based geostrategic analyst and freelance writer. The unthinkable is unfolding in the heart of Iran's political labyrinth: Tehran and Washington are not just talking, they're listening to each other
Arabian Post
26-04-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
How Trump's tariff war dismantled US trade credibility
Dr Imran Khalid President Donald Trump's erratic dance with tariffs continues to confound not just global markets but even his own team. On April 22, in a move that underscored the White House's habitual policy incoherence, Trump declared that the 'very high' tariffs on Chinese goods would soon be 'substantially reduced.' This comes after days of raising them dramatically at the start of the month, then selectively exempting key electronics sectors – moves that reflect both strategic confusion and political expediency. There was no solemn excuse for this U-turn, of course. There never is. But Trump's tone, uncharacteristically tempered, spoke volumes. For an administration that has long relished the adversarial theatre of economic brinkmanship, the shift reads like a quiet concession: the strategy has failed to yield the wins it promised. The tariffs – which at one point soared to 145% on some Chinese imports – have not yet coerced Beijing into concessions, nor they appear rescuing American manufacturing from its decades-long decline in the near future. The timing of Trump's admission is no coincidence – it aligns with growing signals from Treasury Scott Bessent that the tariff war with China is 'unsustainable.' In a private summit on the same day as Trump's public reversal, Bessent attempted to soften the edges of the administration's rhetoric, suggesting that the trade war would 'de-escalate' even though no formal negotiations with Beijing were underway. It was a diplomatic smokescreen for a fundamental truth: the American tariff regime, under Trump's watch, has become a parody of strategic statecraft. Perhaps the most telling detail in this week's series of developments is not what was said in Washington, but what hasn't been heard from Beijing. Unlike other nations caught in Trump's tariff dragnet – countries that have eagerly sought exemptions, side deals, or at least a seat at the negotiating table – China has so far refrained from requesting any meetings. It is a calculated silence. In Beijing's reading, Trump's inconsistencies speak louder than his tariffs. China's Ministry of Commerce minced no words in its response. Pointing out that tariffs on certain Chinese exports to the U.S. had ballooned to an eye-watering 245%, the ministry accused Washington of weaponizing trade in a manner devoid of strategic logic. It characterized Trump's numbers game as little more than performative populism – an apt description for an administration that confuses spectacle for strategy. This entire saga reveals a deeper malaise at the heart of U.S. trade policy: the abandonment of long-term thinking in favor of erratic theatrics. There was a time when American economic diplomacy, for all its flaws, followed discernible objectives – liberalization, multilateralism, strategic containment. Now, under Trump, it is driven more by press cycles and poll numbers than by principled engagement or economic logic. See also Redefining Europe's role in shifting global power equation The irony here is particularly bitter. Trump campaigned – and governs -as the self-styled defender of American workers. Yet his tariff policies have imposed higher costs on the very people he claims to champion. American manufacturers dependent on foreign components have seen their production costs steadily climb. Farmers, caught in retaliatory crossfire from Beijing, have been forced into dependency on government bailouts. And consumers have felt the sting of higher prices across retail sectors. What we're witnessing isn't collateral damage from a coherent strategy – it's the signature chaos of economic self-sabotage. Worse still, Trump's exemptions for electronics – devices that constitute a significant portion of U.S.-China trade – only add to the incoherence. Why carve out Apple's supply chain while leaving steel and solar panels to twist in the wind? If the goal is national economic security, why selectively protect the tech sector, which is perhaps the most vulnerable to intellectual property theft and geopolitical dependency? These contradictions betray the transactional instincts that guide Trump's approach: punitive where it is politically safe, lenient where corporate interests overlap with electoral math. All this would be merely chaotic if it weren't also dangerous. Trade, after all, is not a zero-sum game. It is a mechanism of interdependence that, for better or worse, shapes geopolitical alliances and economic ecosystems. The U.S.-China trade war has already sent ripples across global markets, strained ties with long-standing allies, and eroded American credibility in trade diplomacy. And now, with Trump signaling retreat under the guise of recalibration, it is hard not to see the entire episode as a self-inflicted wound. See also Trump's Tariff Gamble: A Path to Global Recession? Yet this, too, is classic Trump: to sow conflict and confusion only to emerge, eventually, as the 'great negotiator' who ends the very crisis he created. We saw it with North Korea. We saw it with NAFTA. And now, we see it again with tariffs. t there's a palpable fatigue around the world with this familiar routine. The damage to America's international image cannot be reversed with a speech and a smile. Consistency, reliability, and respect for the rules of engagement – these are the currencies of global leadership. In their absence, even the most powerful economy can find itself isolated. One wonders, too, what comes next. China, for all its provocations, has shown strategic patience. It has not panicked in response to Trump's volatility. It has not begged for relief. It has waited, calculating that chaos is its own kind of leverage. In that, Beijing may have read the game better than Washington. This moment, then, is not just a turning point for Trump's trade agenda – it is a referendum on American governance in a globalized world. A world where power is no longer measured solely in economic volume or military might, but in strategic coherence, institutional memory, and the ability to negotiate without bullying. For now, the Trump administration's tariff whiplash serves as a cautionary tale. It is a reminder that power, when wielded without purpose, invites decay. That policy, when driven by impulse, devolves into farce. And that leadership, when hollowed out by ego, ceases to lead at all. Also published on Medium. Notice an issue? Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com. We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.
